Saturday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Saturday, June 14, 2025
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61 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a retired Professor of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on
Twitter and/or
BlueSky.
It’s funny how people who accuse the US – rightly in many cases – of not being able to see the larger picture in foreign policy, now fail to see just how dramatically the Middle East has been reshaped by Israel since October 7. Israel has turned over the chess table, none of the pieces are where they were, all relationships are changed.
– Hamas is friendless, sponsor-less, and living like rats in their tunnels, militarily shattered.
– The Lebanese Army (who knew they still had one?) is cautiously shouldering aside the shattered remains of Hezbollah.
– Syria’s Assad is all gone, bye bye.
– The famed ‘Arab Street’ is not in evidence, Jordan and Egypt remain docile despite Gaza.
– There is no new intifada in the West Bank.
– And by the time the Israeli Air Force is done, Iran will be many more years away from creating a nuke, plus they’ll have no air defense at all, meaning Israel can come and go at their leisure.
Whatever you think of Israel’s actions in Gaza – and they are often indefensible – Israel has accomplished one of the greatest reversals of fortune in history. Before October 7 Israel faced Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Assad and Iran itself. It now has no effective military opposition. Turkey is on the horizon, but not yet really engaged except against the Kurds.
Israel has achieved a very impressive victory. And as a bonus, it has humiliated Trump and laid even more bare his impotence on the world stage.
ETA: Almost forgot Russia, which will be receiving no now shipments of Iranian drones.
The Florida headline of the day- Florida sheriff warns anti-ICE protesters ‘we will kill you’ if you so much as ‘throw a brick’
@Michael Reynolds: Your last point was the first thing I thought of reading your summary.
@Joe:
Alas:
Someone is grasping at straws.
My sons and I are prepping to join the San Diego ‘No Kings’ protest later this morning.
Today (well every day) is a good day to show up against authoritarianism.
Off shortly to show opposition to the felon. Reportedly there are ~35 protests scheduled throughout NH. Attendance will likely be down as rain is expected throughout the day. Ah, fairweather patriots. 🙂
This is scary: two Democratic state reps (a husband and wife) were shot last night by someone allegedly impersonating a police officer.
https://www.fox9.com/news/brooklyn-park-champlin-shootings-suspect-impersonating-police
While anti trumpist are protesting mostly peaceably.
Sources say two Minnesota lawmakers have been shot
Suspect is a whiteman w/brown hair wearing black body armor.
@Matt Bernius:
Very scary indeed.
@Matt Bernius:
I fear this is an early example of the kind of stochastic terrorism against the political opposition that Trump and gang have likely been hoping for.
Masked ICE officers refusing to provide badges and sweeping through our communities, feds roughing up a US senator on camera…I was wondering when we would see it escalate to something like this and it seems the answer was “not long.”
Dark times. All the more reason for us to be out there today at the marches, getting organized, and figuring out the part we each can play in turning this around.
Prayers up that the victims recover and hope they catch this scumbag would-be assassin quickly.
A darkly funny tweet to start the day:
…Prayers up…
Prayer will not do anything to defeat Republican Donald Trump and his Republican goons.
@Sleeping Dog:
Be careful.
@Mister Bluster: Agreed, though I’m not sure why you would quote me in a way that would seem to imply I’m saying that. Perhaps not your intention? I think we’re basically on the same side here.
For me, it is a way of expressing well wishes for the victims of this particular shooting (though to be clear, I am decidedly not okay with “hopes and prayers” and nothing else being the way we respond to our gun violence epidemic, but that’s a whole other topic).
In light of No King’s day and Dr Taylor’s follow up on the violence against Padilla I think it’s notable that the Republicans are pushing to get rid of the laws that help protect abortion clinics. Note that Noem was a secure federal facility surrounded by security. Safe as could be and they had to throw down and cuff someone who dared to ask her a question in the middle of her political rant. (Let’s call it what it was, not a press conference.) OTOH, we have abortion clinics and providers that have been killed, bombed, harassed, etc. Again, in context, violence against clinics is up since Roe was overturned and enforcement has always been spotty in red states. And, just for funsies please note the logic. The Repubs are claiming that the law is used mostly against protestors. Good grief! Exactly who else is going harass, obstruct and attack people trying to enter an abortion clinic? Why not overtone laws that allow police to arrest criminals on the basis that it’s criminals who keep breaking the law?
https://www.tucsonsentinel.com/nationworld/report/061125_violence_repeal/house-republicans-vote-repeal-law-that-protects-abortion-clinics-churches-from-violence/
Steve
JFC. Shooting lawmakers and their dog.
This is terrible and terrifying.
@LongtimeListener:
Another predictable consequence of letting LE commit crimes and telling people they can’t resist:
We’re Now at the Stage Where Criminals Are Impersonating ICE Agents
Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband have died as a result of the shooting.
Beyond awful.
Okay, the Minnesota shootings are even worse than the links above indicate. The suspect shot one lawmaker and her spouse, then drove to another location and shot another lawmaker and his spouse.
Matt B.’s original post sounded like the lawmakers were married to one another.
All of it is awful, but the fact that there are multiple crime scenes and at least four people shot is just horrific.
Query- I cant help but notice that wherever the ICE officers go they are often armed well beyond what regular law enforcement would carry, more like a SWAT team. Has there ever actually been an incident where they go into to arrest these hotel staff, restaurant workers or child care staff where they have been attacked?
Steve
@Michael Reynolds: It’s funny how some people compare failure to comment on something with failure to notice or understand the event. The ME becoming more unstable is just another “day ending in ‘y’.”
@Stormy Dragon:
Indeed. We’re being told we have to do whatever LEO’s say even if they are masked, refuse to share a badge number, and don’t have warrants. Criminals and wingnut fanatics would have to be even thicker than they are to not take advantage of this state of things.
Just slap on a balaclava, a tactical vest and iron-on ICE patch and you have free license to do whatever.
In another example of why crackers feeling the need to avail themselves of their Second Amendment rights will be a bad thing, seeing the comments about the No Kings Day protests and fear about blowback reminded me of a little dirty from back in the day.
The No Kings event for NE Minneapolis has been canceled in the wake of the assassination of Melissa Hortman and her husband and the shooting of John Hoffman and his wife.
Reports are now saying that the Hortmans were found dead.
In this video right wing gas bag Charlie Kirk denounces a citizen who asked Kirk
“…how many elections are they going to steal before we kill these people…”.
This is from a TPUSA event in Idaho in 2021. As far as I can tell Kirk did not ask the would be killer to identify himself. The wanna’ be killer’s name is not mentioned in any news story that I can find about the event. I suppose that it’s too late for authorities to track this guy down and interview him about the political killings in Minnesota.
Judging from the crowd reaction investigators might want to question others who attended this event.
@Matt Bernius:
That’s an awful lot of work for one poor overworked Saturday.
@LongtimeListener:
Yet another reason I don’t own or carry. Even fat old Luddite’s not going quietly into the unmarked vehicle. As a small child he was taught to never accept rides from strangers, even if they have candy.
ETA
On reflection, I’m going to keep my sociopathic comment (& suggestions) to myself.
Even 45 years later, the aversion therapy that was prison still sways Luddite’s behavior.
While I extoll the beliefs of MLK re peaceful protest, I am a faithful follower of Malcolm X.
@just nutha:
Except that the Middle East is not becoming more unstable, quite the contrary. Your comment is an example of just what I was writing about. You’re reading from an old script.
I think that Trump should dress up for the parade. He should put on the uniform of a marshall or at least a five star general with ribbons and medals. This would give the correct look to this effort.
@Slugger:
Roman generals awarded a triumph often painted their faces red. El Taco just needs a different shade of makeup.
Per ABC, the Minnesota gunman had Tim Walz, Ilhan Omar, and Keith Ellison on his target list, among others.
Police are searching for a former Walz appointee, Vance Luther Boelter.
@just nutha: I don’t know how I missed it, other than carelessness, or why auto correct made the choice that it did, but “dirty” in my comment above s/b “ditty.” 🙁
@Flat Earth Luddite: Don’t be such a weenie. Most Saturdays get the day off to stuff around the house and go out for coffee.
ETA: “Even 45 years later, the aversion therapy that was prison still sways Luddite’s behavior.”
And remember, that’s largely been a net positive.
Due to generlaccio’s military parade getting ruined by rainstorms, MAGA is now trying to pretend there is some longstanding cultural tradition that it’s a good omen for a parade to be rained out
You know, as evidenced by how “raining on someone’s parade” is considered a positive thing…
@Michael Reynolds: Time will tell. I’m not optimistic about you’re “new” script. It sounds like something a novelist would come up with.
I like, ‘No Kings.’ Finally, Democrats have hit upon a good slogan. Kudos to whoever wrote it.
@Stormy Dragon: 😛 😛 😛
@just nutha:
There was a time in my memory, and I’m not that old, when Israel’s enemies were Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Saudi and the rest of the Gulf Arabs, plus Iran and all its proxies.
Egypt and Jordan long since tamed. Syria weak, disunited and stuck between the Turks and the Israelis. Iraq also riven by factions. Libya, same. The KSA, UAE and Qatar are a great deal less ideological than in the past, much more pragmatic, and ready to do business with Israel. Hamas and Hezbollah laid low.
And Iran can’t really confront Israel, their skies belong to the Israeli Air Force. When the enemy owns the air you’re fucked. Iran’s only play now is to close the straits which would open the door to our bunker busters. From a dozen enemies down to zero.
Tell that to Republican Mike Huckabee:
@Mister Bluster:
Vance Boelter seems to have wanted Melissa and Mark Hortman to listen at gun point, and John and Yvette Hoffman as well.
Trump is very pleased that Putin called to wish him a happy birthday.
@Stormy Dragon:
How do we know he wasn’t an ICE agent? 😉
@CSK:
“Don’t think as getting older, Taco. Think of it as being one year closer to the grave.”
Back from a celebratory, No Kings Rally. I guess about 1000 people in attendance and this being NH, many attended their first protest rallies in the 60’s. No sign of trouble and the local cops spent most of their time directing traffic and there were only 2 at the rally site. When folks got bored listening to the speeches they moved up to line Rt1 and the bridge to Maine. Lots of honking horns from supportive passing cars.
Here are a few pics https://bsky.app/profile/sleepingdog1962.bsky.social/post/3lrluu7oqq22m
@Sleeping Dog:
Love the sign about the butterflies.
Note on the Minnesota assassinations and shootings, perp dressed as a cop even down to fixing his car up to look like a squad. When the Brooklyn Ctr police responded to the second shooting location, they thought that it was a cop car in the driveway and were only sure it wasn’t when the perp opened fire.
https://www.startribune.com/brooklyn-park-police-searching-for-suspect-in-multiple-targeted-shootings/601372993
Funny we haven’t heard from JBK, Fortune or Connor…
@CSK:
Me as well, it is my favorite.
@Sleeping Dog:
The shooter was an anti-abortion fanatic with dozens of Democrats on his hit list. The MAGAs are saying this guy Boelter was a crazed left-winger.
@CSK:
Of course they’d say that.
ICE directed to pause immigration arrests at farms, hotels and restaurants, sources tell (CBS News)
Why the confused mixed messages? I’m old enough to remember when this was a winning issue for Trump, according to the narrative, like 48 hours ago.
I wonder whether it was the Chamber of Commerce or Latinos for Trump that warned the taco regime: better stick to performative cruelty aimed at low-hanging fruit, stop messing around with the de facto open borders needed by Republican corporate donors.
@Sleeping Dog: I’m glad things went well in your area. In Portland (OR), I happened across a mother and her daughter wandering my neighborhood looking lost. When I asked if I could assist them, the mother told me that they were looking for their car. (It appears that it didn’t occur to either of them to check the sign at the corner from which they made their first turn toward the protest sight, but I didn’t ask them if that was the problem because I didn’t want to make them feel worse than they already did. 🙁 )
ETA: “Funny we haven’t heard from JBK, Fortune or Connor…”
It’s just a well; they’d just do some blather about not hearing you complain about BLM protests in Portland or something like that.
@DK: This is not good. Now they’re gonna need to step up the arrests for driving/walking/shopping/etc. while black/Hispanic/trans/etc. There’s quotas they’re already behind on, ya kno.
@Michael Reynolds:
True, so far as it goes, but I have my doubts about some aspects.
Israel has wrecked some foundations of Iranian extended influence, in particular Hezbollah, and the Iranian air defences.
Though perhaps even MORE important has been the Turkish/Sunni demolition of the Iranian/Russian position in Syria.
Many Sunni (and “Sunni secular”) Arabs have a hard time deciding whether they dislike Jews more the Pasdaranis and mullahs, or vice versa.
Iran has been prone since 2008 to massive hubris in pursuing its regional dominance ambitions, via Shia particularism and naked force, in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
“Don’t write checks your ass can’t cash”, as they say.
However:
The West Bank is a powder keg, largely due to the uncurbed idiocy of the settler extremists.
Egypt worries me; it’s perilously close to an economic and political melt-down.
The Saudis have made it plain they will not normalise relations with Israel absent a more acceptable Israeli policy re the West Bank and, especially, Gaza.
And the various Emirates are likely, in the end, to follow the lead of Riyadh.
Europe and the UK are also making their growing displeasure with Netanyahu’s governance fairly obvious.
The UK recently sanctioned both Smotrich and Ben-Gvir.
This is unprecedented.
Israel cannot afford a breach with Europe.
Roughly a third of all Isreali imports and exports are with the EU/UK.
Whereas Israeli trade with the US is about 1% of imports and exports.
All told, Netanyahu has been quite adept militarily.
Though that is largely due to to the IDF and Israeli intelligence, between whom and Bibi there is scant love lost.
But politically he may well be leading Israel down a dead-end road.
As for ending the Iranian nuclear threat: Israel has done signifiacnat damage.
But to crack the deep sites open needs USAF B-2 “heavy penetrator” bombs.
Whether they get used is now dependent on the decisions of Trump and on Khamenei.
If Iran, feeling backed into a corner, hits the US or Gulf, the B-2’s are likley to fly.
Trump is also now likely to be being pressed by some hardliners to “seize the golden hour” and initiate US strikes anyway.
The next few days are likely to be very nerve-wracking.
@just nutha:
“The Middle East is becoming unstable” has been a line liable to repeat, on possibly reasonable grounds, almost every day on the regular since at least 1948.
Arguably since 1916.
The Ottomans provided “stability”.
Unfortunately, the Ottomans provided little else.
I haven’t looked in but no parade reviews???
JKB? Fortune? Connor? How’s the ROI look?
@Michael Reynolds:
There are very definite limits to the Kingdoms willingness to accomodate Israel.
They desire a deal, and have no interest in war, direct or indirect.
But they do have to consider public opinion; monarchies are not immune to such considerations.
The Arab Sunni have scant desire to uphold the ambitions of Iranian Shia mullahs.
But Isreali actions in Gaza and the West Bank are perhaps even more politically toxic.
And also in Europe.
The Likudnik/MAGA response is to shriek about “anti-Semitic” Europe, or the “Muslim migrant caliphate” or other such nonsense.
The fundamental reality for Israel is it depends upon three pillars:
– its own internal social cohesion, which Netanyahu seems willing to undermine to keep his sweet Bibi ass out of jail
– the US security guarantee, whose bipartisan basis Netanyahu is damaging
– the European economic connection (which is, arguably, underpinned by Germany) which is also being eroded by Netanyahu’s actions
As a British monarchist, I’m personally just fine with kings.
But as a student of US history, it’s quite plain they are utterly incompatible with the US political tradition.
Vive la difference, as the saying goes.
As the basis of British monarchy is one of “Crown in Parliament”, it’s therefore subject to the ultimate sovreignty of the people, and the law as determined by Parliament.
Which, ironically, makes the UK Prime Minister in some respects more legally unconstrained than the US President, so long as they have a Paliamentary majority.
All of which lead up to these lines by Kipling:
Curbing the inclination of monarchs to absolutism sometimes required extreme measures, as the histoty of England in the 17th century demonstrates.
Hopefully, the US will avoid a similar crisis of legitimacy and legality.
European history indicates that countries that fall into a legitimacy crisis due to partisan overreach often have an unpleasant experience.
@Stormy Dragon:
Guess the estimated 50k in NYC didn’t get the memo, eh?
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1NyoKLt58N/
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
If I were inclined towards snark (cue pearl clutching), I’d say something to the effect that much like music and movies, it seems the quality of protestors has declined since our youth, eh?
The No Kings protest in our suburban county was packed. This was partly due to the limited space on the event property located on a corner at crossroads in the middle of town. But it made for an interesting dynamic with the crowd stretching some distance up and down each side of both streets, with traffic passing freely and often participating. Being too far away to hear the speakers was not a problem–the crowd provided lots of energy.
And there was never a hint of danger or violence. I read afterwards that the crowd was estimated at more than 6,000.
@Daryl: I think the NYTs used the adjective “desultory” to describe the vibe at the event. The crowd was described as “sparse”. Rubio stifled a yawn, which pretty gives it all away.
This is heartening…
https://www.nj.com/politics/2025/06/joe-rogan-in-epic-rant-to-trump-maga-a-holes-we-dont-want-you-on-the-team.html
@JohnSF:
“Which, ironically, makes the UK Prime Minister in some respects more legally unconstrained than the US President, so long as they have a Paliamentary majority.”
A majority which can be withdrawn at any moment, which is quite a decisive difference, it seems to me.
@Jay L Gischer:
Oh, yes indeed..
But UK political parties are for more centrally led and disciplined than US ones.
And as long as the majority party remains cohesive, the PM is secure.
It takes a lot of effort by a PM to produce an intra-party revolt capable of removing them.
Not that it can’t happen: the Conservatives defenestrated Thatcher, Johnson and Truss.
Arguably May, also.
But all four pushed their luck, and May was up against a first-class intrigue artist in Johnson.
It’s