Wednesday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Wednesday, March 12, 2025
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115 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a retired Professor of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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BlueSky.
We failed.
We failed to defend women’s rights. We failed to defend trans rights. We failed to defend civil rights. We failed to defend our allies. It’s a huge failure, a catastrophic failure.
How did we fail? Why did we fail? If your answer involves what ‘they’ did, you’re in denial. You’re refusing to take responsibility.
I get it. Unlike most of you I have had a huge failure. A huge fuck-up. And for a few weeks I cast about for someone else to blame. But I’ve always believed that lies are what you tell other people, you never lie to yourself. It was me. It was my fault. It’s not easy to accept. It shakes your confidence.
But denial is worse. There’s power in truth. There’s power in recognizing your own mistakes, because once you do there is at least a chance to move on, to learn, to improve, and even to triumph. Denial is slow poison. It’s an intellectual dead end. It’s weak, and weakness just breeds more weakness.
We failed. And two months into this disaster we still aren’t talking about how and why. We still aren’t accepting any responsibility.
Now, on with another day of impotent complaints about what ‘they’ are doing.
Last year had planned to replace my home’s 30 year old HVAC.
But with the tariff situation in flux, I hesitantly called my furnace/air conditioning company ( who by the way is a personal friend) to quote the job.
My hesitancy was matched by his saying that he could not give me a quote because he had no firm ideas about how much his material suppliers might charge him for a job that would be in the next couple of months. My friend’s advice was to wait until Trump’s War on business had “settled”.
I suspect that this “wait and see” scenario is occurring throughout the country. – definitely making America “great” !
We entering the inevitable “It’s not Trump fault!” phase of his Administration.
Trump allies are blaming Lutnick for Trump’s tariff turmoil
The anonymous “they” say.
@Scott:
Lutnick? How does that not apply to Trump? Maybe he is just avoiding contradicting the boss.
This seems like a great incentive for people considering joining this administration.
@Michael Reynolds:
I think there are a couple of reasons for this. First, multi-factor reasons. This is going to take serious data analysis, and will need to be both national and state-by-state. The results from Michigan are going to have different root causes than the results from Arizona, or Pennsylvania, etc.
Second, as you have accurately noted in the past, young men are a significant challenge for the Democrats. Somehow, there’s going to need to be outreach that doesn’t alienate a core constituency (young women).
Third, turnout needs a deep-dive. In person voting in particular will need to be assessed, given the tendency of Republicans to f*ck with mail-in voting. There needs to be a much more concerted effort to develop candidates who motivate people to vote.
Fourth–and this is a big one–Democrats need to understand that holding to principles is fine and noble, but you can’t do sh!t if you aren’t elected. That’s always been true, and as a former campaign worker on the other side of the aisle, I’ve always been a bit baffled by the substantial number of Dems who are willing to die on a hill (e.g., “I’m not voting for Kamala, she’s corporate!” “We need to not take fundraising dollars from companies, and force all Dem candidates to permanently hobble themselves against their Republican opponents!”) that ends up being a massive, massive fail (Jen waves hands at current state of the US).
I think the Democrats have a ton of work ahead, because it is not easy to get people to realize that winning is the first step, and pretty much the only one that matters.
ETA: Even now, I’m seeing this with Dems. Example: if Gavin Newsom is our best chance at reclaiming the presidency, then get behind him, get him elected, and THEN push him to recant his stance on trans athletes.
@Michael Reynolds: Well, good morning, Mr. Sunshine!
You threw a lot of words out there, but sifting among them, I’m not sure I can find what you mean. In particular, your use of the word “we” is a bit unclear.
If you are accusing people of some sort of personal failing, I’ll have to disagree with you. Many did what, in a democratic society, should be enough. They voted. They contributed to causes and candidates. They volunteered their time for other activities, such as voter registration and canvassing, to increase the odds of a favorable outcome.
There have been four major obstacles to achieving those outcomes:
1, The institutions that translate individual action into those outcomes are weak.
2. Elites have lost their faith in these institutions, or are too scared to defend them.
3. A big part of the population is in the grips of a fascist, authoritarian fever dream.
4. Modern media have broken consensus reality and encouraged people’s worst instincts.
I think it’s unfair, under those circumstances, to blame average individuals, including posters and commenters on this blog, who seem to be your target, for somehow “failing” under these circumstances. They’re still trying, by going to rallies, protesting at Tesla dealerships, getting into arguments with friends and family, supporting organizations fighting the current awfulness in the courts, and pursuing other avenues. Unfortunately, when the vital organs of collective action wither, it’s really, really hard to find the ways to make a difference.
I wish more people had recognized the threat earlier. I wish people in positions of power weren’t craven or opportunistic empty suits who delude themselves that they’ll never be in the crosshairs. I wish the press hadn’t spent years tying itself into bothsideristic knots. I wish social media had not become an overpowering force of insanity, willful ignorance, and cruelty. I wish I’d stop getting candidate fundraising texts, a perverse and infuriating appeal based on the dangerous notion that we’re not in the middle of a coup. I wish, I wish…But here we are.
And to say that the people in the audience for your vinegary musings aren’t taking responsibility is truly insulting. As Matt Bernius said the other day, there wasn’t just one amazing trick that, if only people had realized it was there, they would have acted on it, and everything would be fine. For God’s sake, they would have. But history has handed us an uphill battle against failed institutions, elite failures, and rabid insanity.
And during the post-election shock and despair, people asked, “What could I have done?” More importantly, now they’re also asking, “What do we do now?” Sadly, it’s a very steep hill we face. But many are slogging forward.
@Scott: The Politico piece reads like describing a real nest of vipers. Which tracks Trump’s reputation of liking having his underlings fighting one another.
Couldn’t agree more with the gist of Jen’s post – you have to win the election before you can attempt principle based changes. For Dems to go after Gavin Newsom for failing to support trans athletes is beyond dumb given the small percentage of votes the favored position wins and the large percentage of votes it likely loses. The national Dem candidate has to appeal to indies and sane Republicans in addition to the party faithful. Winning isn’t everthing…it’s the ONLY thing.
How is Trump shilling for Tesla on WH grounds not blatantly illegal?
QUIET! Stable Genius at work!
@Bobert:
—- or, grate.
@Charley in Cleveland:..winning…
Some NFL (?) coach said: “There is winning and there is misery.”
(My memory slipping away as I get older is also misery so don’t quote me on this.)
@Daryl: It is blatantly illegal and Congress should be …
What… Oh, nevermind.
@Michael Reynolds:
Put your money where your mouth is and show your work. I got $10 that says it’s a bunch of Abe Simpson nonsense.
@Jen:
Ok, like I get your general point in your fourth item, but I think it needs to be refined. Let’s take the issue of Newsom and trans athletes. I will not, under any circumstances, vote for Gavin Newsom the reason isn’t principals, it’s because I know he would absolutely in a heartbeat put a noose around my neck. The issue isn’t that he thinks that the line should be drawn at sports, it’s that he believes that we shouldn’t exist at all. I know this because I know trans history.
Look, I am the first to admit there is a discussion and lines to be drawn around trans athletes, but that discussion has to start with our humanity and our right to participate in sports. Newsom is entirely against that. Look, the whole purpose of the right wing framing is to chip away at our rights. Start with sports, start with kids, start with bathrooms and it rapidly becomes the cass review and stopping healthcare. Newsom fully agrees with that. Apparently at one point Newsom called us poor people as if we are deserving of pity because we’re trans. We’re not. I’m fucking joyous at being trans.
A better framing would be about knowing when to put principles first and when to let it slide. The “Corporate Kamala” stuff, sure, let that slide. I can go to people in my community and fight against that. I can’t fight for bigotry and I won’t.
And look, if we had proper healthcare and support so that trans kids could go through the proper puberty, this wouldn’t even be an issue. If we could reasonably follow the science, this wouldn’t be an issue.
For what it’s worth, I spent an hour listening to Kendrick Lamar and telling Newsom to fuck himself on instagram.
Also, lets ask DK and Jim X what the line would be for Black people? Like if Newsom went on his podcast and said that Black women are inherently lazy and it’s unfair for them to get welfare? like we’d all freak out right? I’m sure there are Black community issues I’m not even aware of that would be principled deal breakers. And I understand that the Black community, writ large, is way more pragmatic.
I know this isn’t a transcipt, but if this accurate, seriously what the fuck
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/06/gavin-newsom-breaks-with-democrats-on-trans-athletes-in-sports-00215436
@Charley in Cleveland:
I gotta tell you, this sorta thing is a real heartbreaker for me. I’ve been relying on the support I’ve been getting here and knowing that support is contingent is a real killer. Once you accept this framing we’ve lost.
Replace “Trans” with any group that isn’t White, Black, or Mexican* and make your argument and see how it feels in your heart. Ask yourself, should we do away with gay marriage because there’s not a whole lot of gays in the grand scheme of things? Maybe they should be jettisoned too?
The thing is, many people find trans people disgusting and therefore easy to dump. It’s not our small numbers, it’s that you find us gross. Gross and we challenge your notions of your own gender. Not that you are trans, but what it means to be a man/woman.
Civil rights and human rights should not be contingent, especially not on how many of us there are in a particular group.
@Michael Reynolds: To be honest, I am not sure what you are actually saying. As @Kingdaddy notes, we as a group voted and many gave money. Also, I endorse his comment.
I have advocated for changes to the system for quite a long while now (but, of course, my power of influence is quite low).
We have all tried to warn anyone who would listen that Trump was a threat.
Back to Kingdaddy’s comment, this is a massive collective action problem that is filtered through flawed institutions.
@Jen makes some excellent points about the work that needs to be done.
And yes, the Democratic Party should have been more proactive in the first two years of the Biden administration to safeguard democracy. But I will note that the Senate’s rules empowered the GOP to stop them, and neither Manchin nor Sinema was willing to do away with the filibuster or even really get onboard with the meager reforms that were on the table.
But, sure, “we” are the ones who failed. And “we” aren’t doing enough.
@Beth:
Sounds like it’s not just trans athletes to me. But this is an example of what I was criticizing in liberalism a few days back when I was observing all the “lite” versions of conservative principles liberals embrace tacking to the center.
It’s not all trans/queers; it’s just the athletes (all 12 of them at last count???) and the married ones. The ones in the closet that he can ignore are just fine where they are.
Until they’re needed for throwing under the bus to “win.”
No jurisdiction that has banned trans people from participating in sports has stopped there. Rather than calming transphobia, the way all the cis people constantly asking trans people to more cheerfully accept our oppression keep promising it will, such bans only serve to further inflame them. And it should be obvious why: one you concede that trans people are all really still their assigned gender, even in a “trivial” context, it becomes impossible to avoid making that same concession in other contexts.
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-mind-is-a-terrible-thing-to-lose
snip
snip
Jeanne Shaheen, DNH, won’t run for reelection.
What’s not in question is that the Adminstration suffered catastrophic failure within 60 days of taking office—what is in question—is will the “resistance” allow the POTUS to run from accountability for governance (i.e the thing they hung around the previous Adminstration’s neck.)
Everyday should be direct examination of how/why every measure of performance available is lower than the last year or the previous 4-year average.
As I’ve mentioned before—the play is not—and cannot be “Hey this sucks! Vote Blue!” The play is to undermine the current Administration’s credibility with their supporters while forcing the upper tier of leadership to devour the middle tier with blame and retribution. This is like playing Jenga. Once the middle realizes that it’s being scapegoated and left holding the bag—they WILL retaliate—and bring the upper house down with them.
Only then will the conditions exist for a “Stay Home” or “Vote Blue” play with MAGA land. I don’t like predictions but I say we’ll be at this point in 6-8 months. Quicker if messaging were delivered to the levels of consumption (i.e. outside the legacy media)
Our system isn’t set up to quickly address abuses of power by POTUS. Congress is in thrall to Trump so they wont do anything. That leaves the courts which never act quickly and half of them support Trump. You can be sure many of those courts will deliberately slow walk decisions to let Musk/Trump destroy stuff. They could then rule something was illegal if they couldn’t find a way to justify Musk/Trumo’s actions but by then its too late to easily undo the damage.
Steve
@Sleeping Dog: At 78, she shouldn’t. A functioning party would probably have started planning to replace her 6 years ago, but boomers are never willing to leave the stage.
ETA: Even more good news: “Beyond Shaheen in New Hampshire, Michigan Sen. Gary Peters and Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith have announced plans to retire, giving the GOP pickup opportunities in three purple states where Trump was competitive last fall. And Republicans are especially optimistic about Georgia, where incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Ossoff is expected to face a tough challenge.”
LGM conveniently copied Paxton’s classic definition of fascism. What part of this definition would not apply to current conditions? I dont think we quite have the violent component. I would also point out that conservatives have redefined the term elite to mean anyone with an education they dont like. If you use more traditional definitions, like wealth or political influence then it’s pretty clear that the elites are now going along with Trump’s plans. Some may be uneasy but they are going along.
“Fascism may be defined as a form of political behavior marked by obsessive preoccupation with community decline, humiliation, or victim-hood and by compensatory cults of unity, energy, and purity, in which a mass-based party of committed nationalist militants, working in uneasy but effective collaboration with traditional elites, abandons democratic liberties and pursues with redemptive violence and without ethical or legal restraints goals of internal cleansing and external expansion.”
Steve
@charontwo: “This seems like a great incentive for people considering joining this administration.”
The incentives are corruption and the evil joy of destruction.
@Jen:
I don’t have much time to respond right now to your thoughtful comments, or others downstream – have to take the wife to get her eyeball poked out. Or it might be a cataract operation, it’s one of those two.
But I want to pick up on the quote above. This is key, not just because we need to reach men, but because we need the flexibility to reach men. Political correctness is a box. It’s a box that grows ever more restrictive because we let the decisions be made on Twitter. There are lots of upvotes for the person who finds a new thing to mark as forbidden. It’s a little power rush. And once a thing is labeled as outside the pale, the shift to attack is immediate.
Day One: Stop saying Blue, it should be Azure!
Day Two: You said, Blue, you Azurephobic bigot.
Is this a good way to attract allies? No. It’s clearly not. So. . . keep doing it? Or stop doing it?
#ToxicMasculinity. Good way to attract men? Or fucking stupid?
#LatinX. Or, how can we anglosplain and insult every person who speaks a romance language with a single hashtag?
#Defund. Also known as, White college kids stealing the spotlight from Black Lives Matter.
Back when I was on Twitter I made a comment to the effect that our support for Ukraine would retard Russian economic development. And within seconds, the scolds arrived to tell me I had used a slur that caused deep pain to the mentally challenged.
This rigid (and ignorant) and ever more intrusive language policing makes it impossible to reach beyond the core progressive priesthood. Allowing the most strident voices in social media to invent new ways to alienate voters, while bullying anyone who dares to raise an objection, is like letting the crazy coke freak decide whether we should call it a night.
I’m a writer and a pretty good propagandist when I choose to be, but if I’m put in a box and attacked anytime I reach outside that box to achieve a desired effect, I’m rendered powerless. Let me be immodest – I’m a lot smarter, and a lot better with words, and a lot more effective at talking to the working class people I worked with, than some random college sophomore on Twitter. I don’t need a commissar telling me I’m deviating from the party line.
This is of course just one part of a multi-faceted problem. (I can practically write the tedious, reductionist reactions from half a dozen people here.) But we cannot craft a message with the language police in the room.
@Beth:
Agreed, and I knew that using Newsom as an example was fraught with peril. I was trying to find the Democratic equivalent of Trump, and that’s all I could come up with having just one cup of coffee in me.
My observation over time is that Republicans are laser-focused on winning. They might gripe about the candidate, they might not like what he (and it’s always a he) stands for, but on election day they grit their collective teeth and vote for whomever has the R by the name. Democrats are willing to lose–repeatedly!–for their principles. This is both laudable and crazy-making.
I find Newsom smarmy and I don’t like many of the decisions he’s been making (and I think that these will likely hurt him in the primaries). I desperately hope he is NOT the nominee in 2028 (and candidates who start this early rarely end up being the nominee, people get tired of their ish very quickly). But if he IS the nominee, and I have to choose between Trump Jr. or someone equally vile, I will hold my nose and vote for the Democrat and then push push push for others in the party to contain him. Because at the end of the day, there is a difference between Trump + members of the GOP + GOP voters wanting to erase trans people and just Newsom on his own wanting the same.
Obama’s position on same sex marriage disappointed me deeply. But I understood it from the perspective of Black churches, and I appreciated his public change in stance. Politics is weird and far from perfect.
@Jen: Someone asked in the forums late last week—should Dems lie. This is an interesting question. If I were in charge—I would absolutely lie about lying liars and their motivations WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY being fair to the facts about any situation.
There is a distinction between facts and truth. Facts are objective, and are normally things happening in the physical world or with numbers. Truth is not facts. Truth (as we understand it in today’s vernacular) is based on perspective and experience. Dems already understand this and phrase it “Speaking my truth”.
The only shocking thing to me in all of this— is how utterly routed Democrats were—wholly unprepared for this new type of political conflict and how to fight it. The great irony being—these are the same people that love to point out how the Military always fights the last war in the current war.
Reynolds is right—this was the Princeton Tigers Men’s Basketball Team beating the UCLA Bruins in the NCAA tourney in 1996. Princeton’s Starting 5 MAY have been able to be 3rd string players on the UCLA squad. But they beat UCLA and a lot of physically superior teams with a SYSTEM that denied opponents a strength: Speed & Pace, while forcing them to play LONG PERIODS OF DEFENSE. UCLA would dominate a game with 100 shots….in a game with 50 shots—the outcome was a toss-up. Advantage Princeton.
I’d always assumed there was a nucleus of consultants in the wings for Dems who were waiting for a major failure—who could then be ushered to the front and carry forward a modern communication strategy. There were no such people waiting in the wings. Now that it’s obvious that Dems overwhelmingly are supported by their choir that watches and reads legacy media—BUT that most casual voters don’t consume news and information off legacy platforms—Dems have nothing. They are barely even preaching to the choir anymore.
What Gavin Newsome did with the Kirk interview is Politics. Like Facts and Truth—Politics is not to be confused with policy. We have the best test case in generations—that casual voters (who are the majority) do not care about policy. Biden gave America good policy Soooo Good and Hard. What was casual voters response? Meh—dude is old AF.
If we’ve learned anything since 2016 is that policy and politics no longer have to be aligned. Dems can do policy for their constituency but need to keep the politics mainstream. That would be hard if politicians were held accountable for unified politics and policy—but they are not. This is the new game—one either adjusts or loses.
The solution is actually simple albeit the implementation hard. The casual voter consumes podcasts and social media. Rural voters, in addition, also consume radio and billboards—that’s where the fish are people. They are not on the dock of the NYTs/WaPo.
As a matter of principle, Republicans actually deserve to be in the position they are in—they DID THE WORK. They hired the guides, bought the boats, and followed the fish as they migrated. Chuck Schumer and Pelosi decided to stay on the dock—casting the same old baits they always did and catching fewer and fewer keeper fish. I mean, FFS, Hakim Jefferies had to be shamed for having a book tour event a few weeks ago. This is your resistance—
A supermajority of white men voted for Trump. But somehow white men never get around to lecturing other white men about their abject failure of decency, ethics, intelligence, and morals — and how need to take responsibility for that.
The basic psychology of why is obvious.
It’s easier for them to blame somebody else (liberals, progressives, wokeness, trans people) for their shitty choices than for America’s straight white patriarchy to admit it has fucked up royally, there’s no valid excuse for the fuckup, and finally take the responsibility they demand of everybody else.
They can try to shift blame to the people who didn’t make the indefensible and inexcusable mistake they made all they want. I see this kind of lame excuse making in therapy sessions all the time. But the endeavor to victim-blame — a favorite pastime of narcissistic abusers — is useless because America’s problems will not going to be until those who voted for Trump admit they are the problem and accept accountability and responsibility.
Open thread is feisty this morning. I know we worry about the future of this space, and it would be a huge loss to me if it ends. Left to my own thoughts, I share MR’s pessimism. Seeing the thoughtful and slightly more hopeful responses is why I’ve been a reader since the beginning.
@Scott:
And this is the exactly the problem with Gavin Newsom.
Even Trumpers see blood in the water on Trump’s economic stewardship. But Newsom is wasting time dignifying Republicans’ transphobic nonsense. He, and all Democrats, should be squarely focused on blaming Ketamine Karen and President Trumpflation for crashing the economy.
Newsom does not have what it takes. We knew this in Cali when his first act in office was to scale back high-speed rail. That was weak; his MAGA tour is more weakness.
Yet we still rallied round him when Republicans tried to recall him, because that’s how Democrats win. By not ceding a single inch on anything, at all ever. Voters who abhor your positions will respect and reward your strength. That’s what black voters (and Trump) get that many white liberals still do not.
That’s why blacks gave over 90% of their votes to Hillary when idiot white leftists were helping to amplify “But Her Emails” and “She’s unlikable.” That’s why black voters stood by Joe Biden knowing a black women candidate wouldn’t sell when arrogant white Donorcrats were wrongly forcing out our white male incumbent.
Trump lost to Biden by 5%, but he and his supporters didn’t concede anything on any issue, reflect, worry, wonder, or change. They quadrupled down and spent four years bashing Biden. That’s how you project strength and come back to win.
Harris loses by 1.5% and all most of (thank God not all) the left can do is project wobliness and weakness: attacking Biden, backbiting, recrimination, bemoaning their own allies, Genocide Joe, Fuck Joe Biden, abandon trans, amplifying Republican issues, self-flagellation, attacking students, complaining about Democrats, blah blah blah.
Every second wasted on this crap is a moment spent not doing what the left should be engaged in 100% of the time: blaming President Trumpflation and his incompetent, reckless, unqualified cabal for everything — especially unpopular junkie oligarch Musk.
That is what is going on in black American households and social media feeds. That is why despite rampant homophobia and transphobia amongst blacks — and problematic and disproportionately criminal black underclass — we still get ~90% of our women and ~80% of our men to vote blue. Because middle and upper class blacks have made support for the right an anathema amongst our people.
When are other Dem demos going to get it together and realize that progressives, Biden, and wokeness are not the enemy — and get focused on attacking Trump and Republicans instead of their own goddamn Democratic allies?
Our idiot-in-chief at the NIH is now saying that catching measles is a GOOD thing, that it gives you more protection against further catching of measles than vaccination!
Tell that to my uncle, who caught measles when he was six and suffered brain damage to the point of being institutionalized.
@Jim X 32: Just to amplify what you are saying, and which I agree with, let me discuss a bit of messaging I’ve been seeing on the Democratic side.
First Robert Reich. He does several things on YouTube, and on Instagram, though I haven’t seen those. They are ok, but they are too long (20 minutes) and not punchy enough. I love RR, and his course “Wealth and Poverty”, available on YouTube, is very, very good. And it speaks to a college crowd – preaching to the choir, as it were. Good, but not what I’m looking for. Too old, too slow, too long, too “establishment”.
Then there is Chris Murphy’s video that has been going around YouTube, where he just lists off all the corrupt things the Trump Administration has been doing. Again, it’s great material, and put together well, but the packaging sucks. He stands there with a notebook turning pages. There’s nothing kinetic about it, his voice seems flat. This is a theater critique, remember, or a media critique. I have looked at his policy preferences, and I sorta love the guy. But a media performer he isn’t.
Finally, I’ve seen Bernie. Bernie comes off better. He is more animated. He is more relatable. He is also very old, and his videos are too long.
Meanwhile the advertising I see on YouTube consists of actors pretending to be “just people” who happened to pick up a smartphone and start talking into it. You know, they are “authentic”. And as much as I want to mock it, I can see that it is working. It is working because there is so much anger and distrust of “the establishment” out there. And for good reason.
Calm 20 minute expositions are not going to have the punch to get a message through. It needs to be 30 seconds or less, fun and “authentic”. It needs to come from “just folks”, not Someone In Authority. As nauseating as I find it, we need a message wrapped in “What They Don’t Want You To Know”
@just nutha:
Absolutely, she should retire, though she is young for a Dem in the senate, if you are going to make the change argument you need to start somewhere. The Dem senate leadership photo resembles and ad for an assisted living.
The Dem bench in NH is strong enough to hold the seat. Either congress critter or the former 6 term critter that retired last year would be strong candidates. The name that will pop up as the favorite, will be Chris Pappas, who has garnered 52-54% of his districts vote, in a district that is +2R, the other district is +4 Dem.
@Sleeping Dog: I agree with this analysis. I do wonder who the Republicans will run. Will Ayotte give up the governor’s office for this? (I think no, but I suppose it depends on her long-term ambitions.) Or, Sununu? (I think he damaged his electoral chances by being squishy about Trump, but maybe that’s all forgotten?)
@Grumpy realist: Was this RFK Jr. or some other pro-polio MAGA loon?
@Steven L. Taylor:
Murc’s Law
@Beth: Since I was polled—I’d prefer white politicians keep black folks our of their mouth during politicking. And be strong like bull when policy is being made. They’ve been heavy on politics and weak on policy anyway—lets give the opposite a try.
You completely undermine your credibility as an ally by suggesting that Newsome wants to hang or exterminate trans women. It’s ridiculous. The day Newsome says shiftless, lazy Black people don’t deserve welfare—we can talk. I’m not into hypotheticals not projected from history. Until then—it’s hysterics.
As I’ve said many time—I’m sick of every out group wanting to compare their situation to black people’s history in America. It’s not fair to us or them—the situation and times have changed so significantly, that one people’s struggle 7o years ago—is irrelevant to today in terms of everything except the outcome of those efforts.
I’ve also said the purpose of SPORT is competition—not to affirm or deny personal self images of race or gender. There is a reason they don’t let kids over 150 lbs carry the football in 12U football. There is a reason why we have weight classes in boxing. The reason the Sports issue is a losing issue for Dems is because they are making a category error in trying to alters its purpose. Instead of choosing the 3rd way and advocating for a boat load of unisex bathrooms(which are better for everyone anyway)—Dems were, again, snookered into altering the purpose of a common space to relieve oneself away from home into a tool to affirm a microscopic percentage of the population’s gender.
I have relative, that, due to child abuse and PTSD has never progressed passed age 14 in his mental state. He is a 40 year old body, but 14 years old psychologically. He has assisted-living support with his guardian and is 6’1 180 lbs. It would be completely fair for him to play 14u basketball—he’s a boy and fairly athletic so he would dominate. His body makes it completely unfair for him in terms of competition with the other 14 year old boys who are only in 14 year old bodies.
There are 100 other gender affirming things that are in play in the interest of decency, human dignity, and community. There are few that should not—it is political smarter to take ground not defended and save the harder battles for another day when you have more ally’s. What does taking the sports and bathroom hill get you? At what cost?
@Jen:
Sununu’s name is already being kicked around. He’d seem to be the favorite, but given NH’s semi open primary, it may depend on which primary the independents choose to vote in. If the independents find the Dem primary more interesting, then a MAGAt candidate can beat Sununu.
Regarding Ayotte, she might find escaping Concord a relief. From my observation, biased as it is, she’s floundering. Probably not a surprise as she has no administrative experience on her resume. I’ve begun referring to her as governor weak tea.
That there is a ~$527M delta between the admin’s revenue projections and the legislatures has me wondering how did they come up with those numbers. Frankly I think the legislature is more accurate and even that may be overly optimistic, given the chaos in DC.
I would agree that trans people in sports are not what we should be talking about. It’s a stalking horse.
We should be talking about how people want to make “drag” illegal, so that they can arrest trans people on the street.
We should be talking about the busybodies that think they know better than parents and doctors about how to best care for a child.
We should be talking about how people want to erase (an old acquaintance said “all trans people should be shot” on Facebook) the existence of trans people.
We should be talking about how being trans isn’t a “fetish” but a positive transformation that is lived every moment of one’s life, even in the most mundane ways.
Trans people in sport is complicated and nuanced. We aren’t ready for that conversation as a culture. I avoid it.
@DK:
It was RFK Junior.
Thanks to the excellent advice of Sleeping Dog, I am finally able to get back on OTB.
@CSK:
awe shucks.
What is the freaking deal with new trucks?
Why is every new one now 10 foot tall and has a hood deck at least 5’6″? I just saw my first GMC Denali HD. I’m 5’10”. The hood deck was almost as tall as me.
I’m sorry you have a small penis. Thanks for broadcasting that into the world.
I have seen 5 or 6 Tesla Cybertrucks in the wild. Every single one had a vanity plate.
I’m pretty non-judgemental about personal choices that don’t impact me. Not my business. But what the actual fuck? Why would anyone buy that?
Apparently, I’m pretty judgemental about trucks.
Someone wake up Conner…
Inflation Alert!
The Honey Raisin Bran Muffins (and other assorted varieties) from the Kroger Bakery, 4 muffins/package, 15oz. net weight, that I can remember when I bought them maybe four years ago for $2.99/package and have increased to $4 then just a month ago $5 are today priced at $6/package in the new Kroger ad. Instead of just assuming that eggs are a part of the recipe I checked the ingredients label and sure enough:
I try to buy this product when I have a coupon and when it goes on sale and can occasionally get them in the “reduced” section right before the expiration date.
As for Chickenman Donald Trump:
Trump shares message to millions struggling to buy groceries ‘Shut up about egg prices’
@de stijl:
As you yourself pointed out, it appears related to the penile dimensions of the truck owner.
Now, I strongly suspect party control is going to flip flop on the margins every two and four years in the immediate future.
The fickle center controls the outcome. It’s not really about policy or messaging. That helps, of course, but remember that half the population is below average. Most folks don’t go into a voting booth with an internally consistent system and construct of what are the rights of people versus the limits of government. Mostly, they want a free pony.
Burnout is a thing. Over-reach is a thing. I suspect that Trump will have worn out his welcome by then. (I hope).
I fully expect a D will win in 2028. Trump is probably going to step on his own dick too hard and piss enough of the squishy center off enough.
Let’s beat inflation with tariffs. Lol.
@DK: the RFK Jr. idiot.
(I’ve gotten to the point where I don’t want to try any more to rescue people from the consequences of their own stupidity. Let polio, measles, chickenpox, pertusssis, whatever run rampant. Let’s go back to the childhood death rates of the 1850s. Let’s have Americans banned from or quarantined when visiting foreign countries. Maybe after enough pain and heartache from watching their own kids die these parents will start to believe that maybe doctors in fact know what they are talking about.)
@Sleeping Dog: In the current Senate, only 6 total Senators are older than she is, with one exact contemporary, based on my hand count of the current Wikipedia article. That said, there are more than adequate close contemporaries, including 50% of the members from left coast states. Only Alaska and Cali have Senators younger than 70.
@Jim X 32:
Thank you for this response. Seriously. Can we walk together with this a bit, the goal is strength, enlightenment and unity. I’m going to quote you mostly to organize my own thoughts.
Change “black folks” to “trans folks” and you and I are in lock step agreement. If they are talking about us instead of to us, we both have problems.
Here’s where we need to wrestle with some stuff. And to start out, I get your point about not comparing the various civil rights struggles. You are correct, the world of today is not the same world of the black civil rights struggle. But for better or worse, the story of the black civil rights struggle and the women’s civil rights struggle are foundational to the civil rights struggles of all peoples in the U.S. We should all be inspired by them. We should learn what worked and what didn’t and see what we can use now and what we can’t. We also need to look at the failings. Dr. King was a great man, but he wasn’t going to help the gay men in his movement. The women’s rights movement won a lot of victories by excluding black women. These are our history and we need to deal with that.
Now, here is a place where I will admit small i ignorance and let me know how this resonates with you. As a trans woman, I know that when politicians start talking about bathrooms and sports, they’re not actually talking about bathrooms and sports. Those are just the starting points. As @Stormy Dragon: points out if I’m not allowed in a women’s bathroom because I’m trans, there are two underlying assumptions being put forth, 1, that i’m lying about being a woman, and 2. that I’m dangerous.
We know that from both tran history and our actual experiences, the next step is to cut off access to our medications and to box us out of public life. It used to be, and is trying to be again, illegal to wear cross gender clothing. Why, to erase us from public life. The reason it seems like there are soooo many trans people out there is because slowly over time, my mothers and grandmothers fought tooth and nail to create a space for me to exist. When I was a kid, the only trans people on tv were jokes, prostitutes and victims. Imagine for a second being 12 and thinking that’s your future. Trans youth today now get to see lawyers, doctors, actors, everyday people, even assholes like Auntie Caitlyn. And yeah, under no circumstances will I call a black man “uncle tom”, But I absolutely will reflect that history on a bitch that wants’ to sell out her own people.
Now, I’m being hyperbolic about Newsom putting a noose around my neck, he really pisses me off. But he absolutely would be fine with the extermination of trans people. It probably wouldn’t look like camps and bullets for him. It would look something like this:
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2025/02/hidden-history-transgender-affirming-health-care/
It used to be that you had to 100 prove you were who you said you were. If you were married, you were forced to get divorced. You would have to prove that you were 100% heterosexual in your lived gender. You had to be pretty and white. Frequently you were forced to move away from your friends and family and if you made any mistake, you were shut out of care.
So, this is how Newsom would exterminate us. This is what he agrees with Charlie Kirk should be done. You make it impossible for kids to transition. So that we’re stuck with what puberty does to us. You make it so that only the rich and the white and the perfect can transition and they learn to keep their mouths shut because they know it can all be taken away in an instant.
This is why I get so pissed off when Reynolds says we should just abandon sport.
Now, accepting that the trans experience does not overlap the black experience (setting aside for a moment, the people it does), what I ask you, what are the things that people or politicians say that make you, as a black man, go, “I’ve heard this before, and I know it doesn’t lead anywhere good.” I ask, because I want to know, so that when I hear those things, I can react similarly.
At what cost? Everything. Respectfully, you have the trans fight backwards. We’re not trying to take ground, we’re trying to hold what little we got. About 15 years ago, had the GOP and TERFS not made us the bad guys, we were quite happy with our little gains. We would have been happy enough to take this slow.
The problem with the framing that this is all about bathrooms or sport is false because it accepts as a starting point that I’m not actually a woman. I wanna show you something but this is too long and the tech isn’t working. One sec.
@de stijl:
I’m pretty practical about stuff I own. Does it do its job well? If yes, keep. Mostly.
But I also have a sense of aesthetics and personal style, too. I don’t immediately buy the first pair of 34 × 31 pants I encounter in a store. Do I like the color, the fit, the vibe I want to put out into the world? I choose. We all choose.
It isn’t just about practicality and utility, is it?
We all choose the stuff we buy. And our whole self is usually involved. (Mostly. I don’t care at all about gasoline branding.)
I really shouldn’t mock people who decide that driving around in a disturbingly large and tall truck that they never use to haul around shit in the bed is cool. But I can.
It would disrespctful to my own aesthetic sense not to.
@Grumpy realist:
Tell it to those who wound up blind, too.
Measles causes something called immune amnesia. It does a number on memory T cells, and maybe on B cells as well, which wipes out prior immunity regardless of how it was acquired. So if you recovered from chicken pox, mumps, etc.. before getting measles, you’re vulnerable to all that again.
Not to mention the idea of contracting a disease so you won’t get sick with that disease is so stupid and idiotic, that one thinks most of Junior’s brains must have been eaten by the worm.
I’m not a Newsome fan. On a couple of levels. I don’t think he comes off as “authentic”. He has a slick-backed look that says “player”. I don’t think this plays well.
Also, the guy had an affair with his best-friends wife. Yeesh. Clearly, it doesn’t matter much I guess, look at Trump.
I would much prefer a Tim Wallz kind of candidate. I think he would do well. Or somebody like him would do well. He comes across as down-to-earth and relatable.
But I am not holding his position on trans women in sports against Newsome if he’s the candidate in the general. I am well aware that Newsome does not think we should ban gender-affirming care for minors, or think “all trans people should be shot”. One thing is better than the other.
@Jim X 32:
Ok, back with more of my bullshit. Please do me a favor, really, all of you, take a look at these pictures and tell me what bathroom this person belongs in:
https://www.instagram.com/p/DCnXqRZuuFb/?igsh=ZjloaHUza2MxOWk3
Then take a look at these:
https://www.instagram.com/p/BvrlzCFH5xY/?igsh=b2lnczRhc3pnbndx
In some of those you will see the tell tale dead behind the eyes look of someone who has nothing to live for. Even when I was with my kids.
That’s the person I’m fighting for. That’s why I get so pissed about this stuff. That guy did everything that was expected of him and he wanted to die so bad. He crawled through razor blades and shit so I could live. Him and all the trans people like him, even the assholes like Auntie Caitlyn, are the people I’m fighting for. I want you to fight with me. I want to fight for you too. Because we know what’s right and no one is going to let us in unless we kick the fucking door in together.
@Jay L Gischer:
I know you have a child, but still, you have that luxury. I don’t. I won’t compromise on that. That’s my red line. I don’t need authentic. I would prefer less smarmy. When you enthusiastically accept that i am not a full member of society, you won’t get my support.
Because people are people, there are people who have had surgical “gender-changing” surgeries and then regretted it. For instance, in Iran being gay is a crime, but being trans is not. It is a recognized medical condition. So we see the phenomenon of one partner undergoing transition, in order to be with their partner. And then it falls apart because partner A isn’t actually that gender, and can’t get comfortable with it, and partner B prefers the other gender anyway.
In some sense, these people didn’t understand the phenomenon. Quite frequently, we see that people don’t understand themselves. We don’t have a test for it, so the only test we have of whether someone has gender dysphoria is the test of time. Social transition. We can throw out a lot of those components, which were there for silly and hide-bound reasons, but we still have the issue of people taking big steps for bad reasons.
I know of another woman, a lesbian, who likes to wear a t-shirt proclaiming “I survived testosterone poisoning” Obviously, she tried to transition and then walked away. Probably she’s a TERF now. Because in her mind if it didn’t work for her, it won’t work for anyone. At the same time, going slow was probably a good choice for her.
I know other people who never entertained the possibility that they were trans until they were into adulthood, and then they spent years playing MMOs as female characters, exploring how they felt about that, before taking further affirmative steps.
My daughter took a couple of years with social changes plus hormone therapy before anything more reversable. If she was frustrated with the slowness of things, she never mentioned it. I was a bit frustrated with how long it took her to come up with a new name. It was pretty hard to use a male name with female pronouns.
I mean, yeah, the libertarian approach is “why not let people screw themselves up?” If only they were the only people involved though. Also, physicians take a pledge to “above all else, do no harm”. Many take that pledge seriously.
@Beth: For the life of me, I can’t seem to find a link to what it was that Newsom said that has you upset. Can you help me?
@Jay L Gischer:
I don’t know what your getting at with this one. Sorry, it’s unclear. I just want to say that the actual regret rate on this is quite quite low and is studied constantly because it’s a great stick to beat us with.
There is a post up at BJ that might be of interest to trans people:
https://balloon-juice.com/2025/03/12/on-allyship-and-fear/
@Jay L Gischer:
https://19thnews.org/2025/03/newsom-trans-sports-podcast/
That’s a good start and oh, look, another data point:
https://sfstandard.com/2025/03/11/gavin-newsom-podcast-guest-michael-savage-trans-issues/
@Beth: Yes, the regret rate is quite low. And that regret rate is the result of the process we now have. Which according to what I know, involves some time in social transition or social transition plus hormones.
The regret rate is low, yes. I like having the regret rate low. I want to preserve that.
@Jay L Gischer:
By how? Going back to the old awful gatekeeping standards that would say I can’t transition because i’m bi?
With love and respect, I kinda don’t know where you’re coming from or going to here.
I volunteer at an adult homeless shelter.
There is an attached clothing exchange. (The woman who runs it is the biggest crabby-pants ever. Just continually off-put and angry at the world. She’s pretty awesome! It’s an adjunct service. I’m pretty sure she does it off her own dime, time, and effort.)
Some folks don’t get to choose. If the pants fit, you wear them.
Last spring they got a big shipment of tee shirts with an anime character on the front and Japanese script. By next Monday a quarter of the residents were wearing the same shirt.
BTW, please donate used clothes to your local shelter.
@Jay L Gischer: Those are good transition efforts but still targeted to a convinced audience. What I would like to see—is Dem politicians amplifying RW content that undermines MAGA.
Content providers are attention whores and getting platform exposure from Dems would encourage more of this content-a good thing. Flooding the zone with shit works both ways
@Jim X 32:
So here’s a wild thought: why don’t Newsom and weak, doomy, panicky liberals try, for once, to stay focused on making Ketamine Karen, President Trumpflation, and Republicans own their catastrophic incompetence and economic mismanagement, instead of taking the bait (like they always do) and helping Republicans distract voters with debates about
welfare queenssuperpredatorspolitical correctnessgay marriageHillary’s emailsCRTwhether or not a dozen woke trans DEI hire LatinX athletes can dance on the head of a pin?Derp.
Now would be a good moment for some intrepid investigative journalist to poll rank and file US soldiers anonymously, to see how many would be willing to participate in the invasion of Greenland and Canada, and kill their citizens.
@Kingdaddy:
I’ve tried repeatedly to get a conversation going about our messaging going forward. And there’s zero interest. If we can’t even do a post mortem, that’s not a problem of institutions or media, it’s us.
Let me put this in Star Trek terms: the Romulans are using their warp engines and we are stuck with impulse. We don’t have the time to dick around. We need to pick up the pace.
@Beth:
I’m sorry, you want me to show my work? After you deliver a paragraph of utterly ridiculous paranoia? Newsom wants to kill you is what you get out of, ‘I disagree on trans athletes?’
Newsom did us all a favor. We were never going to win on trans athletes. Never. And we never will, because we are wrong on this issue. Unjust. Unfair. Insisting on this issue peeled away people who might have been supporters but could not endorse this position. And the insistence on it is dumb, dumb and dumb. If you want to excommunicate every Democrat who thinks you’re wrong on this, you’re dismissing most of the party.
Let me remind you of the math: trans people have neither votes nor money in significant amounts. EVERY advance on trans issues relies on allies. Alienating your allies with dumb, maximalist positions is just fukkin stoopid.
@Steven L. Taylor:
I think I was pretty clear: we should be able to talk like grown-ups about how we failed, and how we can succeed in the future. Unless I missed something, none of the main posters has even considered the questions.
We gave money and voted? Steven, we have here a pretty impressive bunch of people. Educated, smart, involved – intelligentsia. And if we can’t even discuss past failures and start thinking about a path to future success who the hell is supposed to do that?
@DK: this is showing that a lot of selfproclaimed liberals have ended up in the position of being holier than their brethren and fighting over policies. Same thing as what happened to the feminist movement—it went further and started lumping together more and more issues that it finally ended up being a bunch of radical Marxist vegan anti-tech feminists wearing black seated around a table in NYC. At which point it imploded.
At present it seems to me that transgender people are unfortunately on the hook because a) there aren’t many of them, (it’s easier to make people into the Other when you don’t know anyone in the category) and b) the absolute fear that a lot of people seem to have about switching gender. It’s almost like someone who has switched gender is considered to be a carrier for Ebola. And even if we had some magic pill (nanotechnology or something) which you could take and turn into someone of the opposite sex down to the chromosomal level, I suspect the same panic would exist.
You guys ready for strike three? Anyone willing to admit that I’m right to blast him?
https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/gavin-newsom-pressured-behind-the
@Michael Reynolds:
What’s wrong with you man. Seriously. I’ve shown three times now, three separate times that Newsom is cozying up to rightwing assholes.
Why are you night fighting for us? you want messaging, here’s your messaging:
https://youtu.be/B7cPzlI2kYw
Fucking fight for us man. Fuck it, fight your daughter. What is wrong with you.
Here are a few things Democrats could actually do right now:
1) Form an informal shadow cabinet so that we have experts in each area, people who can communicate on TV and in social and know their stuff. (If only we could clone Buttigieg.)
2) Localized response. Veterans fired for no reason in Iowa? Put up billboards, buy radio ads, write editorials for the local media, do man on the street interviews and post to YouTube and TikTok.
3) Draft ethics in government legislation simple enough to fit on a 3×5 card and bang on it every time we get near a microphone. Start tagging MAGAs with it on social. Be relentless: corruption, corruption, corruption.
4) Go after the churches. Push the CHINO meme on social. Go after them armed with Bible verses, not logic, use their own language. Bang on the theme that many churches are MAGA, not Christian. Democrats believe – like Jesus – in feeding the hungry, housing the homeless, caring for the sick. That is also supposed to be the Christian message. Dems who belong to churches, demand that your Lutheran or Methodist clergy clearly condemn MAGA/Evangelical hypocrisy.
5) Acknowledge that identity politics was a mistake, and that we are going back to our roots as the party of the little guy. FFS, we have Elon as a target. Class not race. The cost of living. And the first time some fuckwit pipes up to say, ‘It’s so much worse for minority X’, punch them in the nose, because ‘it’s really worse for X,’ translates as indifference to non-X. Our message is anti-billionaire, pro-worker. Anti-corruption, pro ethics.
@Beth: No.
My daughter’s transition made her a lesbian. This did not stop her. I do not support standards that require something like this. Or divorce. Etc.
It did take time. Which seemed to me to be part of your complaint – that some time was required. And having “time in role” being a criteria for surgery seems a reasonable thing to me, though I know that not all trans people agree with me, and are frustrated by this requirement.
That is what I am supporting – “time in role” as a criteria for the more significant surgeries.
@Michael Reynolds:
Let me try this tact, a person that transitions prior to puberty. Exactly what is there advantage?
I mean, there’s no advantage no matter what, that’s just a bigoted boogy man you’ve created in your own head.
@Grumpy realist:
The same panic absolutely would exist. I don’t understand why we are hated like this.
@Beth:
Trans athletes is a death wish issue. It is stubbornly suicidal. It needs to go away because it is un-winnable. The number of people who support trans rights is far larger than the number of people who think trans-females should play girls sports. You are beating your head against a brick wall and shedding allies. You want to insist on losing, hey, you be you, but I’m not buying a ticket on the Titanic. Reading the fucking room. Learn the fucking game.
I’m too busy at work to say much, or anything, about today’s controversy. But there’s this: think about what Beth and Stormy posted about even as recently as early 2024, never mind a couple of years back, and contrast that with their concerns today.
The regression in rights and plain existence should horrify you.
@Michael Reynolds: No, don’t say “you’re not being Christian”. No reachable voter is going to stand for it from a Democrat. Say “this is how to be Christian”, how to live out your faith.
@Mister Bluster: During the hearings on the Kroger/Albertson’s merger, the Chief Financial Officer for Kroger was asked if Kroger was seeking the merger to capture market for the purpose of price gouging. His response was that Kroger was doing all of the price gouging that it was capable of doing right now so the merger provided no additional predatory pricing opportunities.
Maybe Honey Bran Muffins had “fallen through the cracks” and he’s discovered that Kroger hasn’t maximized its predatory pricing opportunities.
Either way, you have my heartfelt condolences on this matter. I can only afford day-old shelf muffins myself, so I know the hardship of missing out. 🙁
@Jay L Gischer:
Just to be clear, under the old standards, that were operational until not very long agon (i’m not going to look the exact date) your daughter absolutely would not have been allowed to transition.
Ok, lets refine this a bit because you are talking about two potentially different things. The first is the medical/scientific aspect that, generally, one should be stable on cross-sex hormones for a period of time. This is fairly uncontroversial in the broader community as far as I am aware. That takes care of probably 80-90% of trans people. If we were going to make a requirement that you must be on hormones for a period of time then we need to figure out something to do with the remaining roughly 20% and of that, there’s maybe a group as large as 5% that’s just going to be difficult to handle.
The other time in role that you might be talking about has a much darker history and would have prevented me from transitioning. It used to be that you had to socially transition first and live in your correct gender for a period of time before you could access HRT and surgeries. If this is what you are suggesting, there there is no way that I would have been allowed to transition. I was on HRT for over a year before I socially transitioned. I couldn’t handle doing it the other way because of what my abusive family did to me as a kid. I needed the inside to change first before the outside could. I mean, I couldn’t hide that I had breasts by like August of that year, but I tried. This sort of time in role is wholly unacceptable.
@Beth:
Let me put this in terms your people (lawyers) should understand. You’re repping a DUI case. You think you can probably get him off. But he insists on trying a ‘sovereign citizen’ defense. That’s you, risking everything so you can make a point.
I just saw on TV that President Doughboy has deported just 32,000 people. WTF I thought he was gonna deport 1,000,000 people??? So he’s failing at even this??? Amazing.
I, and other trans-positive commenters, had a lot of trouble convincing the late Kevin Drum that there was a political movement to erase the public existence of trans people. I was a “radical” for using the term “trans genocide”. Given the difficulty of that, I do not think a nuanced and rich conversation about sport, and how sport fosters all kinds of structural inequalities, and how trans people are just not going to have much of an impact on that one way or another is possible.
This is not a “you are wrong”. This is me wanting to keep all the trans people I know from being persecuted and harassed into hiding. Or worse.
@Michael Reynolds:
As I have been consistently asking you for years now, exactly which of your rights are you willing to give up?
Let me change tracks here. Roughly speaking, what sort of scientific evidence would you require to change you mind?
Similar to that, what about the people that transition before puberty, what is their unfair advantage?
Also, just to be clear with everyone, these sports bans are not just about swimming, wrestling, or track & field. These sports bans include things like chess, darts, or disk golf.
One other point here, again, I am 6ft, 200 pounds of not particularly strong woman, I am an outlier among trans women. We’re not all 6ft, 200 pounds.
Why won’t you fight for us?
@Michael Reynolds:
Um…some of my favorite people throughout history have done that. Just sayin’
@Michael Reynolds:
This is an absurd analogy that compares fighting for trans rights to a group of certifably insane people.
Also, it’s my duty as a lawyer to do as my client instructs. I have to tell them its a stupid argument, but then I have to fight for them as they instructed. Your analogy is awful and does not prove your point.
@Jay L Gischer:
I’ve kept my mouth shut about this, but Drum was wrong on a whole lot of trans issues. That was one area where he looked at bad data and made the wrong conclusions.
You’ll also notice I’m not really making any nuanced arguments because we’re not in that space. We can have a nuanced discussion of how we integrate sports properly and fairly, but the discussion has to start with trans people belong in sport. period. Anything less is a step towards eradication. @Kathy: has pointed that out.
@Beth: I think that when Jim X says
he’s missing that sports and bathrooms does in fact defend the whole ground–the 100 other gender affirming things that are in play. I agree in principle that proponents should jettison the “losers,” but in practice, I saw repeatedly that evangelicals, for example, don’t jettison their principles to win half loaves. If it were a question of just saying “okay, the 12 transgender athletes can’t play sports anymore,” I’d just shrug, but it’s part of a bait-and-switch tactic that goes back to gay marriage (and before that TBH) when Republicans in the legislature in the state in which I was living refused to accept the compromise they had demanded to pass a law legalizing “domestic partnerships” (because they couldn’t abide calling them “marriages”). We saw it again recently again in the immigration reform that Republicans asked for but wouldn’t support because Trump told them not to.
All y’all can do whatever you want. I got no dog in the fight over tactics, but I’m a “perfect is the enemy of good” guy and think that winning the rat race only makes you the fastest rat. I get your point, Beth. And you’re right, hyperbole not withstanding.
@Beth: Yeah, I was disappointed with Kevin on this, too.
I don’t disagree with you about much. I just think the sport argument is offered in bad faith as a way to deflect the conversation to more favorable turf for the anti-trans folks. I refuse the ground.
We aren’t arguing about “what’s true”. We are debating, “what’s the best political strategy”. And I don’t know that I’m asking you to stop speaking your truth. We can support a kaleidoscope of voices.
It’s more that I want you to know what impulse I speak from. It’s more that I would rather not have you think of me as a traitor.
Look, if the royal we are going to be pragmatic and throw trans people under the bus on sports, the Democrats screwed themselves on that measure because of the campaign against health care for trans kids. This campaign was happily endorsed by the same people who think that Biden lost because of trans women playing sports. And in essence it amounted to almost every trans kid and their families being called activists because they believed their care was good.
Same goes with anger about pronouns or DEI being the sequel to the Cultural Revolution. The Democrats let idiots on their side talk about normal life as if it were a culture war and then when the people who actually experienced pronouns, DEI, or health care as a trans person said it was no big deal, they called them activists. In essence, it’s the yelling at a person who lives in NYC and takes the subway everyday that they have to some guy in Nowheresville tell them how the subway is dystopian because they saw it on Fox News.
That’s not adults win at anything. The Democrats actually had to cut a deal with trans people and tell the bullshit artists to fuck off in return for, let’s be honest, caving on an issue for which there’s like 12 actual people experiencing. But it is how talentless babies funded to spew boring propaganda get their checks. And it worked—Chait, Bari Weiss, Yglesias, they all got paid!
@Jay L Gischer:
I don’t think of you as a traitor, Reynolds probably, but not you. I think you’re wrong on some aspects of this issue. Maybe wrong is too strong, misguided.
@Just nutha ignint cracker: pointed out that the other side never compromise and when they do, they’ll blow up their own compromise if they get a whiff of getting something better. It doesn’t even have to be the thing they profess they want. The immigration deal is a perfect example. We compromised and they blew up what they wanted just so the could get a bigger stick to beat us with.
Look at that video of Rep Keating. The second he fought back the slimy GOP guy folded. He fucking ran away because another old slightly raised his voice to him.
Here’s the play:
GOP: trans “men” shouldn’t be in women’s sports.
Dems: what’s wrong with you jerk? Have you no decency? These are women we are talking about and there’s like 10 of them? Are you gonna be the pervert that does the genital inspections? Huh? Are you pervert?
And just hammer that over and over again every fucking time.
And look, every time Reynolds whines about “fairness” every woman here shouldn’t be thinking about “fairness”. They should be thinking about Nancy Mace chasing their daughter into the bathroom to scream at her cause she has short hair. They should be wondering who’s going to do the genital inspection on their granddaughter. They should be thinking about the asshole guy who just demanded that their daughter’s winning team just get groped because that guy decided to be an asshole and claim there’s trannys on that team. No one should be thinking about the vanishingly small number of trans women, they should be thinking about how their own rights will be taken away and fight back.
Just to be clear on all of this. If I am forced to use a men’s bathroom under penalty of law, I’m gonna walk up to the urinal, look the guy next to me dead in the eye and piss on the floor.
There are tons of compromises to be made. That’s the cost of living in a society. Our side should never compromise on civil rights. We should be like Reps Keating and Green and fucking fight.
@Modulo Myself:
Hell, Biden did stick it to us and look where that got him. It would have made my job a lot easier if he had fought for us instead. We have ample proof that capitulation on civil rights is a loser.
@Jen:
And I’m so sorry I derailed your excellent comment over one small part of it. I just really hate Newsom.
Wanna have a discussion about how to integrate trans into sports? Sure. Yes. Let’s have a nuanced, sober discussion about that.
But this ain’t it.
Are you aware of the lengths that sleaze bag Lance Armstrong went thru to cheat the world?
Transitioning seems to make that look silly when you think about it.
All of that to win what? In what kind of infinitesimal numbers?
Don’t let these morons throw out the baby with the bath water. Because that’s exactly what they want you to do.
@Dutchgirl:
I both do and don’t share the pessimism on the topic. I do in the sense of expecting the transition of deeply held societal attitudes changing quickly and in a linear fashion. I don’t in the sense of the long-term prospects of that happening.
A lot of discussion has gone down about some comments from Dave Chappell in the issue. What IMO Dave reflected is the long history of civil rights for blacks in this country. People changing culturally only very slowly, it’s a process of many generations and anything but linear. Big valleys and big peaks all along the way.
For blacks every advance has met with a reactionary response. Like storms crashing a beach, very little changes with each one but the beach is never quite the same again. When the Ds were the party of the racists, in the days up to LBJ and the Civil Rights Act, they held solid majorities. When LBJ shifted the course of the party, Nixon and Atwater seized the opportunity and started the process of catering to the racists -now the South is practically pure red and the Rs have regular majorities because those prejudices were still there.
Dave mocked the expectations of quick transformation of cultural norms in the area of trans/gay attitudes in this society from the perspective of how slowly and non-linear the process of change in attitude of race have happened in the “common clay of the American West”, as Mel Brooks put it, has been. He earned the righteous rage of those who expect it to happen in a hurry, of course.
Btw, has everyone seen this?
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/elon-musk-daughter-accuses-him-215251070.html
I would guess there’s a decent chance this is both true and hilarious.
@Fortune: I think you’re missing the bigger picture. MR isn’t interested in Christians being better people; he’s only interested in clubbing them like baby harp seals.
Beyond which, he has about as much ability to recommend to Christians how to be better at their faith as I have to do the same for Buddhists. And about the same authority to, also.
@Beth:
The nazi in chief has 14 children. With that many, the sex at birth distribution ought to be around 50/50. Of course there are confounders like multiple births (rather more common in IVF), sheer chance, and several unknowns. So a split of, say 9/5 wouldn’t be too far off random chance. A 10/4 or 11/3 split would indicate the chances are not random.
@Charley in Cleveland:
Gavin comes across as a politician who talks out both sides of his mouth with shit like this, and I think a huge part of Trump’s appeal is his authenticity.
So, fuck Gavin Newsom. And fuck triangulation.
I could respect him if he said “I don’t know. There are maybe 12 trans woman athletes in my state, get back to me when they start winning. My main point is that people should be free to live their lives without being harassed. By the state, or by you.”
Boom. Fails to say anything about the edge case, and it’s an honest, authentic sounding answer. “I don’t know” is an option, particularly on hard issues that basically don’t fucking matter. Be genuine, and point to the principles that would guide a decision if it somehow became important enough that a decision had to be made.
I’d want to add a “These are kids. What the fuck is wrong with you? Let them play their little sports, you fucking monster.” But that’s just me.
I will not support Gavin Newsom. I will grudgingly vote for him if he wins the 2028 primary. I might even grudgingly vote for him if he’s in a long hard fought primary against someone worse (Washington is pretty late in the process). But I will not support him.
Too weaselly, and not in a good way. Not in a cute little ermine hopping through the snow way, more in the smelly ferret that an angsty 20 year old boy has as a pet sort of way.
@Beth: You don’t need to feel bad about blowing up the argument about Newsom. I blew it up two days before when the Charlie Kirk interview story broke.
@Kathy:
Well, there were Jean and Ruth Chalifour, an Andover, MA. couple who had 12 daughters.
Unusual, I grant you.
@Grumpy realist:
…because America’s general tolerance of blacks, “communists” (aka Jews), gays and other former out-groups means the right needed a new fake outrage to manipulate those who vote for white identity politics but don’t think they support identity politics. So, now we’re all supposed to pretend trans people haven’t always existed.
Here’s Trump in 2016:
Trump: Transgender people can use whatever bathroom they want (Politico, 21 April 2016)
So this disastrously losing hill upon which Democrats are allegedly dying is…the far right position from nine years ago. In other words, fake bait that the same weak gullible Democrats who always themselves to be manipulated by rightwing propaganda (“Biden’s age!!!11!!”) are predictably catering to, like fools.
What they should be doing instead is focusing voters towards an alternate outrage. We are not lacking for options: tariff price hikes, trade wars, Trumpflation, DOGE mass layoffs, egg shortages, planes crashing, stocks crashing, crypto crashing, measles, 1500 J6 criminals released, plans to occupy Gaza, Putin surrender, WW3 threats, gutting Medicaid, tax cuts for billionaires, $4.5 trillion in new deficits, and on and on.
Instead, we get this sorry scene:
Trump 2024, “I’ll lower prices on day one.”
Trump 2025, “Shut up about prices.”
Gavin Newsom, “Done and done, Mr. Trump. Rather than remind voters that trans people are not price gouging us and plotting to destroy Social Security, but that you, Ketamine Karen, and your greedy non-trans oligarchs are the ones ruining lives by destroying democracy and the economy — I’ll help you change the subject to trans panic.”
Newsom and others of his persuasion are weak and stupid. But black/gay Dems will still vigorously, loyally, and loudly support his stupid ass if he’s the 2028 nominee — rather than do what he, Clooney, Stewart, Schiff et al. would do: amplify and give quarter to whatever bullshit distraction tactic the right uses to undermine him.
@CSK:
As I said, unknown factors. Or look at Henry VIII, the trumpy king. It does happen.
Flip a coin 14 times, and you may get a skewed split between heads and tails because coins are not balanced. Even identical coins from the same run might have differences.
Now, if we could generate a viable embryo by merging the DNA of two ova, then you’d get 100% daughters. Same if you could merge DNA from two sperm and vacate the ovum’s nucleus, only 100% sons.
@Beth:
Especially not to placate the blinkered who don’t know Republicans are America’s biggest practitioners of “identity politics.”
@DK:
But don’t you know, “white” and “man” aren’t identities. They are just synonyms for “normal”.
But you are absolutely right about Republicans and identity politics.
@Michael Reynolds:
Four thoughts.
1. No one is saying that these things can’t be discussed, so it is weird to be admonished for that.
2. Since none of us work for the DNC, nor for individual candidates, I am not sure how the OTB crew doing a post-mortem is necessarily helpful.
3. Speaking writer to writer: how much do you like being told what to write? (That is a semi-tongue-in-cheek but also a serious question).
4. I do not think that the Democrats lost in last November because of latinx, Defund, nor trans women in sports. Or any of these other “one simple trick” message issues.
It was largely the economy that lost the election.
And I have written about this.
What Explains a Trump Win?
and
Comparative Incumbencies
@Michael Reynolds:
1. In the abstract, all well and good. In reality, that’s a massive collective action/coordination issue. As I often note, the parties are weak, and they lack centralized leadership save when they have a presidential nominee or a president.
2. This makes sense.
3. I am not sure this would have much effect. It isn’t like the anti-Trump movement has been quiet about his lack of ethics.
4. While I agree in principle, I think you underestimate the degree to which most Evangelicals don’t think Democrats can be real Christians/their rejection of the “social Gospel.” Heck, JD Vance was chastised by the Pope over Catholic doctrine and that didn’t work.
5. How do you take identity politics out of a party built around an explicit multi-racial coalition?
@Fortune:
Kind of like how you tell liberals “this is how you improve D.E.I.” rather than telling them “D.E.I. is reverse discrimination and should be scrubbed from the planet.”
Not.
@Beth:
When has asking a minority to give up rights ever worked out for Democrats?
I want to go back to my hatred of Bill Clinton and point out his Sista Soulja moment. From that moment forward it became conventional wisdom that the way for Democrats to win was to make sure while male bigots knew that we at least kinda agreed with them.
And I don’t think it ever worked. So, fuck Bill Clinton. And James Carville.
Off-brand bigot doesn’t sell when the name-brand bigot is the same price.
Seriously, though, fuck James Carville off-brand bigot was his entire thing.
@de stijl:
Also, the fucking things are dangerous to everyone around them.
If we required that the driver be able to see the road N feet in front of them, so they had to have sloping hoods like a mail truck, or a minivan, I would be a little happier.
I hate to say anything even remotely good about Trump, but when he bought a Tesla on the lawn of the White House… even he was unable to stomach a Cybertruck.
@Jay L Gischer:
I’m just an outside, semi-informed observer, but I’m pretty sure bottom surgery is not step one, and all other surgeries are pretty routinely done for non trans folks without any delay except health insurance trying to not pay.
But sure, no breast implants without six months of stuffing the bra! Toss in a six month toupee requirement for hair transplants, while we’re at it.
@Steven L. Taylor:
This was my first thought, though I admit I happened to see that other person’s rephrasing rather than Michael’s post.
I’m not plugged into any of the Church circuits. But in the past I have read several accounts of political schisms within the various denominational parent organizations. I was left with the impression that, like many other parts of society, many churches are sorted.
WaPo, 12/31/24
I bolded two points of interest for me.
The first, is a point I’ve made in the past. Not sure if I did here, though. It seems to me that as much as some religious people seem to think of their belief as light from an eternal, unchanging flame, it is not. I suspect that it is a post-hoc rationalization.
The second point is far more related to the first than many are willing to admit. Separately, but as always linked to money, power is ultimately the goal of one or both actors in any transaction.
That isn’t an attempt to demonize every pastor who had to keep the lights on, as I do think many are genuinely attempting to exercise their faith.
But others? Yeah, we can all name some of them whose ‘faith’ is a means to selfish, secular ends.
@DK:
From beyond the blue line, a blistering slap shot.
SCOOOOORE!!!!
I think we’re going about this “gender affirming” thing all wrong. It’s not necessarily about “sex or gender”, really. The men need to know that they’re getting “gender affirming” care when they get treatment for their Erectile Dysfunction because they can’t get it up and they get Viagra. The women need to know that they’re getting “Gender Affirming” care when they get boob jobs.
Hit it where it hurts.
@Gustopher: “but when he bought a Tesla on the lawn of the White House…”
I think the purpose of the event was to announce that he was buying one of the cars…not to actually buy one of the cars.
@Kurtz:
This comports both with my lived experience and with my understanding of the social science that has been done.
In terms of personal experience, this was what I observed in Evangelical circles 30+ years ago (but the issue was abortion first and foremost).
@Steven L. Taylor:
It also should be pointed out that Judaism, Christianity, and Islam were all birthed via particular political contexts. I would argue they were started for political purposes, but I’ve no idea of the scholarship on that front.