Outside the Beltway

Majority Supports Constitutional Right To Same-Sex Marriage

The people are ready. Is the Supreme Court?

Doug Mataconis · Monday, June 9, 2014 · 5 comments

The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that a majority of Americans now agree with the proposition that the Constitution protects the rights of gays and lesbians to marry:

This, from a new Washington Post poll, is a milestone for gay civil rights:

Regardless of your own preference on the issue, do you think that the part of the U.S. Constitution providing Americans with equal protection under the law does or does not give gays and lesbians the legal right to marry?

Does: 50

Does not: 43

This comes from Greg Sargent, who continues:

This is significant because it goes beyond the question of whether people support legal gay marriage. While we’ve seen a major cultural shift on that question — today’s Post poll finds 56 percent in support — the general idea of legal gay marriage can co-exist with some states keeping it illegal. But now support for a Constitutionally protectedright to gay marriage has hit 50 percent.

In recent months, state laws banning gay marriage have been falling like dominoes, largely because of the Supreme Court’s decision overturning the Defense of Marriage Act. As gay rights advocates point out, SCOTUS’s ruling in United States v. Windsor stopped short of declaring a Constitutional right to gay marriage, but it paved the way for gay marriage bans to be overturned on the grounds that they violate equal protection clause, in places like Utah, Oklahoma, and Virginia.

Many advocates expect that one of the many outstanding cases will find its way to the Supreme Court soon enough. SCOTUS is expected to weigh public opinion in making its next decision. Polling like the above suggests rapid evolution in public attitudes on the core Constitutional questions here, which could make a broader ruling more likely.

“This is a highly significant number,” gay rights advocate Richard Socarides tells me. “The Supreme Court came right up to the edge in Windsor, stopping short of declaring a federally protected right to gay marriage, but most people think it is now ready to do so. This poll shows the country is ready for it. This poll and others like it to come will help lay the groundwork for a Supreme Court decision in the next 18 months holding that there is a Constitutional right to marriage equality.”

The poll also shows general acceptance of the idea of same-sex marriage at 56%, which is largely consistent with where the numbers have been of late and shows a slow but steady upward tick in social acceptance for something that, just about ten years ago, was opposed by the vast majority of the public.

On some level, of course, the fact that a larger number of Americans accept the idea of a Constitutional right that bars states from forbidding gays and lesbians from marrying doesn’t matter. If a right exists under the Constitution, then it doesn’t matter whether a majority supports it or not, or at least it shouldn’t. Most notably, of course, the Warren-era Court was well ahead of public opinion on racial equality issues starting with the decision in Brown v. Board of Education, and when the Court handed down its landmark opinion in Loving v. Virginia, public opinion was still very much against the idea of mixed-race marriages. At the same time, though, courts do follow public opinion in at least some respects, and the fact that same-sex marriage has become increasingly socially acceptable has no doubt played a role in the fact that it has had a to-date unbroken string of successes in Federal and state-level courts since the Windsor decision was handed down just under a year ago.

Aaron Blake looks at the political angle of these poll results:

The new poll also asked people how important the issue of gay marriage is to their vote for Congress. While 81 percent of strong gay marriage supporters say it’s at least “somewhat” important, just 50 percent of strong opponents say the same.

Nearly half of those who strongly oppose gay marriage (48 percent) say it’s not even somewhat important to them. Just 19 percent of strong gay marriage supporters are so casual about it.

If you project those numbers over all strong gay marriage supporters and opponents, the advantage for supporters is even clearer.

While 30 percent of Americans say they strongly oppose gay marriage, if only half of them think it’s even somewhat important to their vote, you can deduce that only about 15 percent of Americans feel passionately enough about the issue that it has any impact on their vote.

By contrast, about twice as many Americans — around 30 percent — say they support gay marriage strongly and that it’s at least somewhat important to their vote. Around 20 percent say it’s at least “very” important.

In politics, motivation is hugely important. And gay marriage opponents don’t have it right now.

That’s basically what happens when you are on the losing side of an argument that pretty much everyone seems to realize at this point is over.

The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that a majority of Americans now agree with the proposition that the Constitution protects the rights of gays and lesbians to marry:

This, from a new Washington Post poll, is a milestone for gay civil rights:

Regardless of your own preference on the issue, do you think that the part of the U.S. Constitution providing Americans with equal protection under the law does or does not give gays and lesbians the legal right to marry?

Does: 50

Does not: 43

This comes from Greg Sargent, who continues:

This is significant because it goes beyond the question of whether people support legal gay marriage. While we’ve seen a major cultural shift on that question — today’s Post poll finds 56 percent in support — the general idea of legal gay marriage can co-exist with some states keeping it illegal. But now support for a Constitutionally protectedright to gay marriage has hit 50 percent.

In recent months, state laws banning gay marriage have been falling like dominoes, largely because of the Supreme Court’s decision overturning the Defense of Marriage Act. As gay rights advocates point out, SCOTUS’s ruling in United States v. Windsor stopped short of declaring a Constitutional right to gay marriage, but it paved the way for gay marriage bans to be overturned on the grounds that they violate equal protection clause, in places like Utah, Oklahoma, and Virginia.

Many advocates expect that one of the many outstanding cases will find its way to the Supreme Court soon enough. SCOTUS is expected to weigh public opinion in making its next decision. Polling like the above suggests rapid evolution in public attitudes on the core Constitutional questions here, which could make a broader ruling more likely.

“This is a highly significant number,” gay rights advocate Richard Socarides tells me. “The Supreme Court came right up to the edge in Windsor, stopping short of declaring a federally protected right to gay marriage, but most people think it is now ready to do so. This poll shows the country is ready for it. This poll and others like it to come will help lay the groundwork for a Supreme Court decision in the next 18 months holding that there is a Constitutional right to marriage equality.”

The poll also shows general acceptance of the idea of same-sex marriage at 56%, which is largely consistent with where the numbers have been of late and shows a slow but steady upward tick in social acceptance for something that, just about ten years ago, was opposed by the vast majority of the public.

On some level, of course, the fact that a larger number of Americans accept the idea of a Constitutional right that bars states from forbidding gays and lesbians from marrying doesn’t matter. If a right exists under the Constitution, then it doesn’t matter whether a majority supports it or not, or at least it shouldn’t. Most notably, of course, the Warren-era Court was well ahead of public opinion on racial equality issues starting with the decision in Brown v. Board of Education, and when the Court handed down its landmark opinion in Loving v. Virginia, public opinion was still very much against the idea of mixed-race marriages. At the same time, though, courts do follow public opinion in at least some respects, and the fact that same-sex marriage has become increasingly socially acceptable has no doubt played a role in the fact that it has had a to-date unbroken string of successes in Federal and state-level courts since the Windsor decision was handed down just under a year ago.

Aaron Blake looks at the political angle of these poll results:

The new poll also asked people how important the issue of gay marriage is to their vote for Congress. While 81 percent of strong gay marriage supporters say it’s at least “somewhat” important, just 50 percent of strong opponents say the same.

Nearly half of those who strongly oppose gay marriage (48 percent) say it’s not even somewhat important to them. Just 19 percent of strong gay marriage supporters are so casual about it.

If you project those numbers over all strong gay marriage supporters and opponents, the advantage for supporters is even clearer.

While 30 percent of Americans say they strongly oppose gay marriage, if only half of them think it’s even somewhat important to their vote, you can deduce that only about 15 percent of Americans feel passionately enough about the issue that it has any impact on their vote.

By contrast, about twice as many Americans — around 30 percent — say they support gay marriage strongly and that it’s at least somewhat important to their vote. Around 20 percent say it’s at least “very” important.

In politics, motivation is hugely important. And gay marriage opponents don’t have it right now.

That’s basically what happens when you are on the losing side of an argument that pretty much everyone seems to realize at this point is over.