Israel Invades Lebanon
US and regional leaders are hoping for a limited operation.
WSJ (“Israeli Forces Conduct Operations in Lebanon After Crossing Border Overnight“):
Israeli forces were inside Lebanon Tuesday conducting a series of operations aimed at uprooting Hezbollah positions within a few miles of the shared border, people familiar with the matter said.
The operations could continue for days or weeks depending on diplomatic developments and their success in moving Hezbollah back and stopping the attacks on northern Israel that have persisted for the past year as the two sides exchanged fire, the people said.
Israel’s military published footage Tuesday of a commando division putting on body armor, helmets and backpacks ahead of battle, though a security official said troops didn’t encounter fighting in Lebanon. A reservist from Division 98, a commando outfit, said there had been no combat but that the unit had spotted scouts and had pushed them back with artillery.
Hezbollah said it targeted Israeli soldiers as they moved through orchards along the eastern end of the border. It said it fired artillery at Israeli forces inside Israel nearly 30 miles to the west along the Blue Line—a boundary drawn by the United Nations after Israeli forces withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000. Such attacks are typical of the yearlong exchange of fire between the two foes.
Overnight Tuesday, Israel launched what it called a limited operation in a number of villages in southern Lebanon near the border to attack Hezbollah targets and infrastructure. The security official said the operation was focused on villages right along the border and that there was no thought of moving up to Beirut.
Diplomats remain concerned, however, that the operations could spiral into a broader ground war between Israel and the Lebanon-based militant group. Israel warned people in Lebanon not to drive from the north of the country to areas south of the Litani River, which runs roughly parallel to the border but around 20 miles to the north, and told residents of border villages to leave their homes and move north of the river.
The ground incursion follows weeks of Israeli intelligence operations, targeted killings and heavy bombing that played to Israel’s strengths in intelligence and air power. The offensive inside Lebanon now puts troops into battle on territory where the U.S.-designated terrorist group has fought Israel to a standstill twice in the past quarter-century.
Israel’s troops are among the most battle-tested the country has ever had after nearly a year of fighting in Gaza. But a ground war in Lebanon will pose different challenges. Whereas Gaza has flat terrain, with borders now controlled on all sides by Israel, Lebanon’s rocky, mountainous landscape requires different training, which forces are now undergoing. Additionally, Israel only controls the borders on the southern side of the country.
[…]
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, in a call Monday with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant, pushed for a diplomatic solution, but said the U.S. was well-positioned to defend U.S. forces and allies against threatened action from Iran.
“I reiterated the serious consequences for Iran in the event Iran chooses to launch a direct military attack against Israel,” Austin said.
The Pentagon said Sunday it would keep the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and its accompanying ships near the Red Sea. The Lincoln had been expected to leave when the USS Harry S. Truman carrier strike group arrived. The Truman will now be operating near the Mediterranean Sea. It is unusual for the U.S. to keep two carriers in the region.
Arab diplomats who have scrambled for days for a diplomatic solution to head off a ground operation and minimize risks of miscalculation have now shifted to trying to contain the conflict.
A broad ground incursion in Lebanon would be highly provocative in the region and a further blow to a country scarred by previous invasions that ended in 2000 and 2006. Israel’s government is under pressure to create a buffer zone to stop Hezbollah attacks that have forced some 60,000 people from their homes in the north and prevent the sort of cross-border attack that Hamas led against Israel on Oct. 7, which many in the country still fear. Hezbollah has threatened for years to invade parts of northern Israel.
The military operation heaps new stresses on Lebanon, a country in turmoil after hundreds of thousands of people fled their homes following recent Israeli bombing. Israeli attacks have killed more than 1,000 people in the country in recent weeks, according to the Lebanese health ministry.
NYT (“Israel Launches Invasion Into Southern Lebanon“):
Israeli ground forces were operating Tuesday in southern Lebanon for the first time in nearly two decades, as the military ordered evacuations of more than two dozen villages at the start of an uncertain new phase of its decades-long conflict with Hezbollah.
The Israeli military said early Tuesday that its forces had crossed into Lebanon in an operation aimed at targets belonging to the Iranian-backed militia in the rugged border region. It said that one army division — which typically numbers more than 10,000 soldiers — was involved in conducting “limited, localized and targeted raids” along the border, although it was unclear how many of those troops had crossed into Lebanon.
That appeared to be a far smaller force than the two divisions Israel sent into the Gaza Strip last October, but the number of troops deployed in northern Israel in recent days has fueled speculation that a broader operation could be coming. Three Israeli officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive military matter, said that parts of the invasion force could advance several miles beyond the border. On Tuesday, the Israeli military told Lebanese civilians in some villages to move north of the Awali River, more than 15 miles from the Israeli border at its nearest point.
U.S. officials said on Monday that they believed Israel’s invasion would be limited and that they had been assured by Israel that there was no plan for a bigger operation by conventional forces or a prolonged occupation of southern Lebanon. But several times during its nearly yearlong war in Gaza, Israel has played down the scale of its military actions only to see them grow into monthslong operations involving large numbers of troops — including in its initial ground invasion of Gaza, the push into the southern half of the strip and the incursion in Rafah.
Israel said its goal in the Lebanon operation was to eliminate Hezbollah infrastructure that poses an immediate threat to northern Israel so that civilians displaced by rocket fire there can return. The fighting has forced more than 160,000 people from their homes on both sides of the border.
Most of the major outlets are in live-blog mode, so getting a coherent picture of what’s happening is difficult. I’m skeptical both that this is a limited operation that will end soon and that Israel has the ability to sustain a two-front war at this scale. Something has to give.
For now, at least, it looks like Iran is staying out of it rather than stepping up to support its proxies.
And, despite grumblings, it appears the United States is begrudgingly supporting Israel’s play.
POLITICO (“US officials quietly backed Israel’s military push against Hezbollah“):
Senior White House figures privately told Israel that the U.S. would support its decision to ramp up military pressure against Hezbollah — even as the Biden administration publicly urged the Israeli government in recent weeks to curtail its strikes, according to American and Israeli officials.
Presidential adviser Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk, the White House coordinator for the Middle East, told top Israeli officials in recent weeks that the U.S. agreed with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s broad strategy to shift Israel’s military focus to the north against Hezbollah in order to convince the group to engage in diplomatic talks to end the conflict, the officials told POLITICO.
Not everyone in the administration was on board with Israel’s shift, despite support inside the White House, the officials said. The decision to focus on Hezbollah sparked division within the U.S. government, drawing opposition from people inside the Pentagon, State Department and intelligence community who believed Israel’s move against the Iran-backed militia could drag American forces into yet another Middle East conflict.
[…]
In mid-September calls and meetings, Israeli officials outlined broadly that their military was preparing to make the shift. They didn’t offer details. Hochstein and McGurk relayed to their Israeli counterparts that — while they still urged a cautious approach — the timing was likely opportune for such a move, especially after Hezbollah had been significantly degraded in the months prior.
While Hezbollah had long said it would only engage with Israel if it reaches a cease-fire with Hamas militants it is battling in Gaza, U.S. assessments indicated at that point that Hamas wasn’t likely to agree to a cease-fire deal anytime soon. And that meant it could be a moment to focus more on Hezbollah alone – and to decouple the two conflicts.
While conflicts are ultimately resolved diplomatically, the military instrument can be quite persuasive in getting sides to agree to terms that would otherwise be unacceptable. Given Iran’s demonstrated reluctance to expand their proxy war with Israel into a direct fight, one presumes the Biden team sees the likelihood of the war achieving its political aims greater than the risk of escalation.
UPDATE: As Lee Corso might say, “Not so fast!”
NYT (“Iran is poised to launch an attack on Israel, U.S. and Israeli officials say.“):
Iran is poised to launch an attack on Israel in the coming hours, according to the Israeli government and two U.S. officials.
The Israeli military said Israel had been informed about preparations for the attack by the United States government.
Three Israeli officials said the attack would involve unmanned drones and missiles fired toward Israel. One of the U.S. officials said it would involve ballistic missiles, while the second said that it was unclear what kind of attack would be launched. The officials all spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive military matter.
Any attack would significantly raise the risk of an all-out war between Israel and Iran, including its proxies across the Middle East. For years, the two countries have fought a shadow war, with Iran seeking Israel’s destruction and Israel seeking to blunt Iran’s regional influence, destroy its nuclear program and unseat its government.
Now they are moving closer to direct confrontation, after a year of rising conflict between Israel and several Iranian allies including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi militia in Yemen.
[…]
The three Israeli officials said that the target of the new Iranian attack would be three military air bases, as well as an intelligence headquarters north of Tel Aviv, which was evacuated on Tuesday afternoon.
Iran last fired a barrage of missiles and drones at Israel in April, after Israeli warplanes fired strikes that killed several top Iranian commanders as they visited Syria. At that time, an all-out war was avoided after both sides chose to de-escalate. Six months later, diplomats and experts say that a full-scale war is much likelier, with Israel expected to strike back hard after any new Iranian attack.
A group of Israel’s allies, led by the United States, helped intercept most of the missiles and drones in April, resulting in only limited damage to Israeli infrastructure.
We shall see whether this is another token, face-saving effort or a serious escalation into direct war with Israel. If the latter, it’s doubtful the Biden administration will be able to stand on the sidelines.
Predictable given Netanyahu & ilk
Overall while in near term they will fain, the logic, the ethnic blindered attitudes, and supremacist ideological views have set them on a dead end Botha-esque path.
NYT says:
@Lounsbury:
I’m not sure I understand their reasoning. Israel had a huge intel success – the pagers and the very effective decapitation strikes. This feels like an unnecessary risk. There will be Israeli casualties.
@Michael Reynolds:
The intel success had no bearing on Hezbollah being able to shoot missiles into Israel. What Israel wants is return and eternal safety for the people who are displaced, and they (and America) want it without any compromise at any level with any party. Initiating another land war is the result of that.
@Michael Reynolds:
The logic is that Bibi is getting a boost and his right is happy.
Without dragging the US into active involvement, it is difficult to see how Israel maintains a two front war. They lack the resources to carry out a clear and hold strategy in Gaza.
@Michael Reynolds: It appears to me that the reasoning is driven by the Netanyahu faction’s rather generally racist (in the broad American sense) reasoning around ‘the Arabs’ that is leading to them to a rather 19th century kind of pound the savages into submission sort of logic. Plus a Netanyahu logic of gaining time for himself at any cost in terms of risk escalation.
Even the decapitation strikes – as the US ‘War on Abstractions’ has shown, killing headline leadership of entities that control territory does rather little on a permanent basis, even on a medium term-basis (other than probably evolving leadership into more resistant fractions). Of course if one is in an ideological framework that the other side is a bunch of low-reasoning savages, then due to those blinders one rather sees the solution to every problem being simplistically to pound the savages into submission – that is the hammer solution and every problem is a nail.
To be frank from my years of exposure to Israelis, the Netanyahu types have long struck me as rather prisoner to unexamined 19th century informed colonialist reflexions, imported from their European sides and never really updated / examined (such reflexions earlier made visible in the attitudes to the mizrahine).
The e-comms sabotage was likely quite enough to paralyse Hezbullah for quite a bit, and buy time – but instead they have chosen to open wide a 2nd front, a sort of Rumsfeldian ‘roll them all up’ perhaps.
As like the Botha approach, in short term they will achieve victories (as equally the West Bank policies). In the medium term I rather think it is a Pyrhhic approach that rather than securing Israel is doing the opposite for the long-run.
Can we just have a moment of silence for Lebanon, a once small but proud and beautiful country that was a beacon of modernization… until Iran decided it was too dangerous to house Hezbollah inside its own borders and directed them to assassinate, intimidate and bribe their way to become the de facto power in Lebanon and turn it into a forward based launching pad for attacks on Israel and therefore, inevitably, a target?
@Modulo Myself: @Sleeping Dog:
I don’t know much about the ranges of Hezbollah’s missiles, but I’d be surprised if pushing Hezbollah back a few miles will make that much of a difference. As for the politics of it, getting IDF soldiers killed is not going to go over well. This is also really straining Israel’s economy.
This feels like Netanyahu should have just taken the win. One of the oldest tricks in warfare is the phony retreat in order to lure an over-confident opponent into a trap. This isn’t quite that, but the historical lesson is: don’t overreach.
One thing that seems clear is that Arafat was right to think he was being scammed in 2000. Watching the collapse of the cease-fire negotiations in Gaza due to the insanity of the Israelis, it just seems impossible that Israel and America would have ever given up actual control the West Bank, despite what any deal said.
@Michael Reynolds:
What win? There’s no way to get those people back into their homes. The only options are compromise with Hezbollah, or launch a war which would push Hezbollah far to the north and then reoccupy South Lebanon.
@Modulo Myself:
Arafat was not being scammed, he was stupidly setting the stage for this ongoing disaster for Palestinians. Arafat was a fool. He was under the impression that he had the support of the entire Arab world. And he did. For a while. But as the years dragged on the Arab powers gave up on the corrupt and incompetent PA. Now Palestinians have no real international support beyond platitudes.
Arafat could have had half a loaf. He demanded much, much more, and got much, much less. There’s a reason for the old saw that the Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.
@Modulo Myself:
A ‘win’ is not the same as a ‘long-term solution.’ Hezbollah and Iran are enemies. Israel kicked shit out of Hezbollah and humiliated Iran. That is a win.
@Michael Reynolds:
The pager action revealed the location of a of the missiles Hezbollah has in residential homes in neighborhoods. Not really a viable air strike target given the civilians in the vicinity.
Not to mention, without the command and control system intact, it is more likely someone will open up a tunnel or mtn bunker holding missiles for rearming giving an opportunity for Israel to put their own missile through the open door.
@JKB: Wait. I thought that the current conventional wisdom had become “f*** those people; they deserve whatever happens to them.” I thought they were supposed to refuse to let missiles into their neighborhood if they don’t want to be targets.
So, if this is the start of a ground invasion, it’s going to mean significant Israeli soldier casualties. I wonder how this is going to play out against the continued stalling against putting the religious layabouts into uniform, like every other Jewish Israeli citizen?
@JKB:
Short range rockets can be hidden in civilian houses.
The heavy missiles are a different matter entirely.
@Michael Reynolds:
It is; but it appears Israel has decided it to wants to degrade the short-range rockets threat, and leave Hezbollah/Iran with the choice of the big missiles or nothing.
(Important: we don’t know at this point what effects Israeli strikes have had on the longer-range weapons; though the Israelis likely have a reasonable idea).
They may also have some hopes of forcing Hezbollah/Iran into offering a de facto truce in return for Israel not turning the screws still more.
Possibly up to the point of Hezbollah complying with UN Security Council 1701: withdrawal from south of the Litani River and replacement by Lebanese army and UNIFIL.
This would be a massive humiliation for Iran, and yet more damage to Hezbollah’s political position in Lebanon.
Big question now is will Iran attempt a large-scale missile strike, from Iran and Lebanon, which may lead to counter-strikes on Iran.
Or just do something token, in an attempt at saving face?
@MarkedMan: No, one should not have a moment of silence for your idealised Lebanon fan fiction – which was outside of central Beiruit a country of factional fiefdoms, divided and sub-divided along ethno-religious lines. One day Americans may eventually learn that the European language speaking segments of capital cities are not the country.
Nor did Iran create Hezbullah. The bungling of the Israeli occuption of majority Shia southern Lebanon created Hezbullah. Iran successfully latched on. Hezbullah is principally a Lebanese Shia creature in origin, however useful to Iran that it is.
@Michael Reynolds:one merely needs to look at the past three decades of Israeli interventions into Southern Lebanon. It is my expectation that this will rerun that. Short-term success bogging down. But a useful sugar high for the Netanyahu factions.
@JohnSF:
Looks like Iran has launched.
Now, on what scale?
Some indications it’s larger than the April attack.
@JohnSF:
Awesome. Israel decided to drag us into a war before our election. Fuck Netanyahu, fuck Israel. I’m fucking done with their shit. They shit themselves, they should wash their own fucking pants.
@Beth:
I rather doubt most Israeli’s care that much about the WU elections one way or the other.
The primary drive of this was the ongoing Hezbollah rocket strikes on northern Israel, and Iran’s support of that in order to preserve its standing as leader of the “Forces of Resistance”.
Standing aside is an attractive idea in the abstract.
Unfortunately, it’s totally impossible in practice.
Second wave of missiles reported incoming from Iran.