Sunday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Sunday, November 24, 2024
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67 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on
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BlueSky.
Last week in stupid, day by day:
“Jeff Tiedrich“
Television game show host Chuck Woolery has has died. He was 83. Woolery was host of Wheel of Fortune before Pat Sajak. RIP
It looks like the Ukrainians have discovered Bluesky. That’s great, an international presence should help the migration away from Twitter.
https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social
https://bsky.app/profile/tatarigami.bsky.social
Ukrainian and Russian info stuff:
https://frontelligence.substack.com/
Elon Musk Calls for Wizards of the Coast to “Burn in Hell” Over Making of Original D&D Passages
What is this guy’s job again?
@Kingdaddy:
Unclear. The jobs Xlon seems to be trying to do, Toddler in Chief and First Nanny, are already taken up by the felon and the trophy wife.
@Kingdaddy: @Kathy:
Doesn’t Musk refer to himself as “First Buddy”?
@charontwo:
Depending on how you pronounce it, the name almost sounds Ukrainian.
@Kingdaddy: I particularly like the characterization of Musk as a “hobby tourist”. I confess I don’t know whether or how much TTRPG Musk has engaged in. The book that has attracted his ire mostly reprints source documents, some of which haven’t aged well.
Considering that I myself, and most of us who were around in the 70’s, engaged in things that now strike us as a problem, that doesn’t seem to deserve shunning, just a sigh and a sad smile.
Meanwhile, Elon appears to be defending the right of rpg creators to include character races called “Nordic” and “Negro” and to play a class called “SJW warrior”. (This is in a book “published” in the last 5 years – though barely seen by anyone until someone posted the pdf)
@charontwo:
Correction from Jeff Tiedrich:
The group Republican Against Trump probably had the best six-word observation about Gaetz: “This creep needs to go away.”
I have a humble suggestion for @James and @Steven. I’d like to see a thread devoted to the question, ‘what now?’ Where do Democrats go from here, what do we need to do, what should we learn, and what are our goals?
@Michael Reynolds:
Whatever the Democratic party should do, they’ve made it clear that what they plan to do is blame the left, lean even harder into being the Republican Lite party, and sacrifice enough minority groups to please their imagined gods of the zeitgeist
@Michael Reynolds:
When I see a poll that says that 60% of Americans approve of the Trump transition, given that he’s ignoring all the norms and guardrails like FBi Background checks and actual competence, it makes my burgeoning plans to leave the country even more solid. 60%? It shows how skewed the media imbalance is that 60% of people would approve of the dumpster fire that is currently the Trump transition. I continue to believe it’s going to be very bad the next two years, and the problems created will be impossible to come back from. The country I grew up in is gone.
What comes next, I don’t know. But I believe strongly enough that it won’t be good that I’m making real plans to leave. When? Not sure yet.
@EddieInCA:
Unfortunately, mentally I find myself in the position of the poor Jews in 30’s Germany. Unlike their wealthier brethren, I and those like me have neither the $ nor the ability to acquire papers to allow us to flee to the safety of more hospitable climes.
Remember those who couldn’t flee when the darkness comes.
@charontwo:
Very true and we’re lucky they didn’t do this net.
@Jay L Gischer: I have begun to refer to Musk as “President-elect Musk”.
I think that idea would stick in someone’s craw pretty nicely.
For starters, Democrats should refrain from painting themselves as defenders of the Federal Bureaucracy. They can either mount an aggressive campaign in Simple Town illustrating the Federal Governments impact on their daily lives, or, they can take the side of reforming the Bureaucracy in a manner more advantageous to non-elites than Trump.
The latter is better–even if it’s mostly Theater. After all, that’s entirely what Trump Drain the Swamp will be.
@Flat Earth Luddite: It may be interesting to watch, again. Over the years, so many, “if X gets elected, I’m gone” people, both left and right (tho mostly left), but so far only HL’ 92 has gone. Beth will be the second.
And there are places for you and me to go, but they’re all 3rd world countries and my list is considerably longer. 🙁 Still, if Project 2025 is their worst shot, well, we’ve both lived there. And as I’ve noted, I grew up there. It won’t be nice for anyone–not even the people hoping for it– but we’re both old, we’ll be fine.
@just nutha:
This is the first time X has been elected.
@charontwo:
Where did you see this?
Uh-oh. It looks as if the MAGAs are very unhappy with the choice of Pam Bondi as U.S. Atty General. It seems she railroaded George Zimmerman.
@just nutha:
There’s 3-4 million trans people in the US, almost a third of them living in poverty. No country is going to accept millions of impoverished trans recipes, so while I’m glad Beth seems likely to escape, the reality for most of us is that we’re on the Titanic, there’s not enough lifeboats, and most of us will be going down with the ship.
@just nutha:
That’s certainly true. Just like when we were kids, eh?
Now I’m just waiting for my offer from Columbia Records for 12 free LPs.
On the subject of why we lost and what to do about it, Kevin Drum has a chart. He shows for recent prez elections the change in D vote from the previous election. Biden won by 4.5%, Harris lost by 1.5, for a change of -6.0%. There’s getting to be a lot of discussion of “lost” votes, the decline from ’20. We lost because of a lack of D enthusiasm.
In ’20, loathing of Trump provided that enthusiasm. The electorate, as I may have observed before, are a box of rocks. And it’s conventional wisdom that they remember nothing older than six months. Trump was running around saying he never heard of Project 2025 and he wouldn’t sign an abortion ban and never once giving the Nazi salute in public. (Neither did Hitler, actually. He had a palm up variant signifying receiving everyone else’s salute.)
Governance is about policy. Elections are about entertainment. As much as we hard core followers of politics enjoyed Harris campaign, she, and Biden, did little to generate enthusiasm among marginal voters. And Dems never will as long as they campaign, as @Stormy Dragon: notes, as GOP Lite. Remarkably competent economic policy didn’t get it done, we need something to excite the marginal mushy middle. Not policy, entertainment.
@Stormy Dragon:
And just like when Cracker and I were kids, a bad time to be “other” when “other” is defined as not wealthy white male “Christian.”
All this old broke felon can do is keep you and yours in my thoughts and prayers. Good luck.
@gVOR10:
I disagree, and indeed, the constant chasing after the mythical “we need something to excite the marginal mushy middle” is the actual cause of the Democratic party’s current predicament.
The Republicans don’t worry about chasing the middle. The worry about driving their core base into a frenzy to get out and vote. Elections don’t run on persuasion, they run on turn out. Demoralizing your most loyal voters so you can chase after people who are likely to just sit at home anyways is a recipe for failure.
Baseball player Rico Carty has passed away. Carty was a very good and dangerous hitter but a horrible defensive player. He could barely play left field and didn’t have a good throwing arm but in 1966, Atlanta Braves Manager Bobby Bragan penciled in Carty as his starting catcher for 6 straight games! What hallucinogenic drugs or alcohol was that manager under the influence of?
Carty was also injury illness and accident prone. Back injury that causes him to miss most of a season? Check! Tuberculosis*? Check! Stabbing himself with a toothpick? Check! There is no doubt Carty was memorable. I remember him well without the help of Strat-O-Matic but I didn’t know the toothpick accident. You learn something new everyday. RIP Rico.
*- Hall of Famer Red Schoendist missed most of the 1959 season due to TB.
@Jim Brown 32:
What? Trump was absolutely nothing but making the federal .gov more advantageous to elites.. just like every Republican ever.
Trump isn’t draining the swamp, he is the swamp.
@gVOR10:
Sometimes I feel like you’re maligning rocks.
@charontwo:
Jr cokehead is off the wall.
@Bill Jempty:
Queue a midterm future that has players/performers losing time to TB.
@Kylopod:
Not to be confused with “Bluto” Blutarsky.
@Not the IT Dept.:
It’s a subsequent correction to what was posted previously in the link in my earlier post, the first post in this thread.
Scroll down to the very end of this link:
“Link“
@Sleeping Dog:
The only two MLB players I know to have lost time to TB since WW2 are Carty and Schoendist. Carty was out all of 68 but it had no effect on the Braves who were not in the pennant nor would have been with him in the lineup.
Schoendist is different. He was out all of 1959 but the last few games of the seasons. In 1957 and 1958 he had been the Milwaukee Braves starting 2B as the team went to the World Series both years. Without Schoendist in 59, it is well chronicled the Braves struggled at 2b. The Braves finished the season tied with the LA Dodgers before losing two straight games in a best two out of 3 playoff to decide who went on to the WS.
@EddieInCA:
By now, it’s fairly assured, a significant portion of Americans don’t know what good government process looks like, or even what is normal procedure on anything related to civics.
I’m starting to think that the only way democrats win the WH these days is if they start promising free stuff. Trump tells people their life is shit, the country’s gone to hell, and he will fix everything. Tariffs replace taxes, he’ll cut insurance rates by 50%, gas under $2. No details, no possibility of it happening, but if your life is kind of shitty it sounds pretty good. The Democrats talk about the picture and the future. I’m convinced most of the country doesn’t care about the future, they want everything fixed immediately, and there is someone who is telling them they’ll fix it. He’s a master con man/salesman, and they’re bought what he was selling.
I wonder if Harris had promised something like a 10% middle class tax to be paid by a tax on incomes over $500,000. It’s doable but would probably never happen. Who cares? A 10% income tax cut sounds pretty good to most people.
The misconception that I certainly have and most people on this blog probably have is that his character is disqualifying. He won despite the pussy tape in 2016, and now he won despite a judge finding that he raped a woman.
@gVOR10:
I’m not ready to buy into that explanation (or the flurry of others floating around). Enthusiasm charted high for Harris, and if money is any kind of metric, $1 Billion represents a boatload of enthusiasm especially considering the timeframe.
Aside from any malfeasance which has yet to be revealed, the outcome with 7+ million Dem voters not showing up for Harris, can only represent a coalescing of long term, complex social/cultural trends coinciding with situational factors.
Remember, if all 81 million voters who supported Biden in 2020 had shown up for Harris, TFG would be sucking air. And that’s not even counting the millions of new voters added to the roles since 2020.
@Stormy Dragon:
Agree and disagree. Yes, their faithful followers (e. g., burn the government up, Christian theocrats, white nationalists, extremely wealthy investors) turned out enthusiastically.
However, the Republicans recognized the angst of the lower and middle class voters, and honed in on inflation under the Biden presidency. They also capitalized on white men who don’t have higher educations but want a family and a livable wage without moving. And otherwise compassionate people who don’t want illegal immigrants negatively impacting their lives (for a variety of reasons, including, to my surprise from acquaintances of mine, lack of cleanliness and rudeness in stores).
The discussion hasn’t been about dazzling the loyal Democrat followers (at least from my perspective), but rather fighting fire with fire to (1: short time scale) gain back the voters that have voted for Democrats in recent elections, and (2: longer time scale) prevent election of a totalitarian government.
@Michael Reynolds: I will give it some thought (I actually already have, but will give it some more).
@Jim Brown 32: I agree. Coopt the bureaucracy issue. I’m on board with that. It’s stupid, but stupid is as stupid does.
@Stormy Dragon: FWIW, I don’t think “be more entertaining” and “be supportive of trans people” are mutually exclusive. When I advocate for “be more entertaining and engaging”, or for “coopt the anti-bureaucracy”, I’m calling for a style, not a substance. I have no problem with the substance. I’m never leaving the trans folks behind. And, there’s still fight in me. I don’t think the game is lost.
Biden followed a “let your actions speak for themselves” sort of course. Which I might have, too. That’s how his generation – the Silents – did things. His actions were wonderful. His words were boring, and this means his message didn’t get out.
Consider the scenario of the Congressional bathroom ban. Radical compliance and high visibility might be just what is needed. Trans women who are staffers taking video of themselves entering the Mens room, alongside Mike Johnson, while chattering about makeup and rummaging in their purses. Just complying with the rules you laid down, Mike. Surely you don’t have a problem with that?
Dramatize the situation in a hundred ways. I get that most trans people just want to get on with their life after transition and aren’t up to something. That choice is now not available. But this sort of theater is probably not something everyone can do, but some can.
Along with the sort of theater that just shows everyday normal family life with a person or persons who happen to be trans. It would help if they are funny.
Yesterday, about 1 PM, I had a very clear thought – I want loaded nachos. Now.
Went to the grocery store and bought all the ingredients and fixings.
It was glorious. I enjoyed that very much! I scratched that itch.
Had another batch earlier today. Still glorious. I’m rapidly running low on shredded cheddar. Should’ve bought more.
@Kylopod: Cute. Who X is depends on perspective, though. For me, everyone who runs as a major party candidate is X. I finally got fatigued with choosing the less worse candidate. I’m content to let the majority decide how to burden the future generations, none of whom are my heirs, with the tab for our excesses.
@Stormy Dragon: Alas, I can’t fix this, and my “thoughts and prayers” are less than ideal for relief, though you’re welcome to them if you want them.
@Flat Earth Luddite: The current deal is four free Blue Apron meals when you agree to buy 20 or 30. Columbia House had a much sharper pencil. (And a lower unit cost product.) 🙁
@Stormy Dragon:
This! Alas, not being able to circle the wagons is a feature of Democratic Party politics rather than a bug that goes back to at least Clinton.
@Jay L Gischer: I’m not sure that being on board with him matters given that late in yesterday’s comment thread he explained that people who would pull the discussion in other directions are frozen out of the conversation which is why he can’t make an impact even at the local party level despite having mad skilz in this area. (At least, that’s what I got from his response, which was why I replied, “So no. Got it!”)
How about that? You can procrastinate quite effectively by reviewing the work you’ve already done. You even feel productive while you delay any progress.
The state of Apple’s not-Artificial-Intelligence thus far (18 min. video).
Anybody know what’s happening with George Will at WAPO? In the last three days there have been four Opinion page tributes too him.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/11/22/george-will-fifty-years-columnist/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/11/23/george-will-column-excerpts-fifty-years/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/11/24/george-will-conservative-intellectual-leadership/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/11/24/george-will-discipline-baseball-jefferson-roosevelt/
The last by Ken Burns. No gift links. I just want to document my statement, they’re not worth reading. And reader comments, including mine, are running pretty heavily that respect for Will is less than universal. Numerous allegations that while Will is anti-Trump, he certainly contributed to the evolution of the Party leading up to Trump.
They all read like Will has retired. I admit I skimmed, but I couldn’t find any statement to that effect. There so far seems to be no explanation for this outburst of praise, except maybe, a loosely defined 50th anniversary. I wonder if they’re greasing the skids under him.
Quick question: If introduced to a character named Marina, would Rina come across as a natural diminutive?
@Kathy: Not to me, but I wouldn’t say that everyone’s daily name is a natural diminutive in the real world.
Gives life, and your story, a little texture.
Feel free to use the following: “inher mind, Mary was reserved for the Virgin Mary, which hadn’t been true of her in some time, and a Marina was a place for water sports and she was never into that. For reasons that she never understood, her middle name was Oswald, so Rina it was.”
(Ok, that is not a serious suggestion, but I will stand by the overall point — names are often an idiosyncrasy).
@Kathy:
Yes, but.
I wouldn’t automatically go there, but would have no problem with that. But, I’m a native English speaker who doesn’t really know the rules and practices on diminutives and nicknames.
I think the question needs more context.
Mari comes to mind too. But, both are fine. Go with what seems right to you.
I’m assuming for a writing project, if so, good luck and kill it!
@Kingdaddy: I encourage Musk to go after D&D. Most of the Musk fanbase played D&D, and almost everyone acknowledges that there are parts of D&D lore that did not age well.
You might say that creating a Black race that lives underground and who everyone hates allows people to explore racism from multiple sides, but oof, even that most charitable interpretation has to acknowledge that it doesn’t work well now.
They’re better as blue-purple, having a very fantasy oriented matriarchal society, and worshipping spiders. Make the analogies a little more abstract.
But I only really know D&D from Buldur’s Gate 3, which is woke. And incredibly popular. Popular with gamers, who are Elon’s main fanbase.
It’s also a nice throwback to Gamergate, Comicsgate, etc. The Nazis created their own versions because they wanted “traditional values”, but they were never very popular or very good.
@Kathy:
Editing isn’t just tightening. It’s also re-imagining. (Nothing wrong with tightening, btw. I can eliminate half and lose almost nothing.)
Is this character who I need them to be? What is their purpose? Who are they?
@Kathy:
There is a pattern of pet names, usually girl’s names, that use a similar pattern: Tina from Christina, Bella from Isabella, Gina from Regina–among others.
Rina from Marina sounds plausible enough to me, though offhand I don’t know any examples of people who have derived the name in that way. Wikipedia indicates that the name Rina has a variety of origins, from Japanese to Hebrew, and it also mentions it as a derivative of Katrina and equivalents in other languages (such as the Russian Ekatarina), but it doesn’t mention Marina as a possible source. That doesn’t mean it’s never been done, just that it’s relatively uncommon. If it’s for the purposes of fiction, I don’t see the problem; it may be uncommon but it doesn’t sound jarring or unnatural to my ears.
@Kathy:
Not really if the characters are primarily English speakers.
AFAIK that particular way of shortening names (getting rid of the first syllable) occurs regularly in a couple of languages, including Spanish, German, and even Russian (I think), but not so often (again AFAIK) in French or English.
One exception that springs to mind is “Elizabeth” which could give you “Liz,” “Lisa,” or “Beth.” Perhaps because the first syllable is just a pretty weak sounding vowel.
I suspect that other languages (i.e., other than English) are more prone to swallowing the first syllable of certain words/putting stress on the second or third syllable of a word or name.
@Gustopher:
I’ve a really hard time with diminutives in the real world, and seldom ever use them myself. Even though the world seems addicted to them. In this case it made more sense to me to use it.
@CSK:
The fact that he had was tried and was exonerated is considered to be ‘railroaded’?
@gVOR10: The Trinity Tripod also has an article, so I think it’s just 50 years of bloviating at WaPo that they’re all celebrating. And that is an achievement. Pre Medicare, most people didn’t live healthy enough lives to last 50 years at a job–even journalism.
@Al Ameda:
Well, they’re still angry after winning in the general election. The only thing surprising then would be the consistence.
@Kathy: I hated having people shorten my name. Still do, so I’m a no on “Rina” unless your character is going to say things on the order of “Don’t call me that, f***head!!”
@Gavin: Perhaps I should be more clear. The RW propaganda machine has a mainline into the psyche of non-sophisticated blue collar adults. The machine has a now 30-year campaign undermining the Federal Government. This belief is crystalized–therefore MUST be addressed. Of course, those unfamiliar with the dark arts, i.e. Democrats, ignorantly believe you can mount a frontal assault against a crystalized belief. You can’t simply say to people who believe the Fed Gov is incompetent, corrupt, and nefarious–‘No it’s not’. The time to do that was 30 years ago. One must acknowledge crystallized beliefs and redirect/shape the outcome according to reality.
Non-sophisticated people always look at the hand moving–never the hand hidden. In 4 years, the Rubes will be convinced that the Fed Gov bureaucracy has been brought to heel by Trump. There will be executive orders, Twitter tirades against senior bureaucrats, and other Theater–and magically– Trump will have made the Bureaucracy great again. Remember, Trump previously built the Wall, secured the Border, and built the greatest economy in World history. What did Biden do (besides dribble soup into his bib)?
If theater must be done–Dem theater should be done and would be preferable. Remember how Bill Clinton responded to the RW bullshit about welfare? Not with denial — it was too late and firmly set in the white psyche that Negros were getting rich off welfare. He played to the Rubes, did a little theater and mostly preserved the programs.
Trump is not the Swamp to these people–he and the RW are the only ones targeting messaging directly to them. How would they know Trump is the Swamp? Turn to MSNBC? Download Pod Save America? There is NOTHING blue collar about the hosts, look, or feel of those programs. I’ve been warning for the last 3 years since I left Central Florida for the Florida Panhandle that the RW messaging apparatus is multilayered and COMPLETELY unchallenged here and other areas like it.
Until Dems figure out how to get messaging infrastructure to blue collar communities to undermine the RW messaging these people get via churches, bars, YouTube, podcasts, and their peers, Republicans will continue punching above their weight in communities they shouldn’t be.
@Al Ameda:
To them it does, apparently.
@de stijl:
Context will have to wait until I finish. Often context is little different from a spoiler.
@de stijl:
I feel I’m like really close to finishing. I know what the end looks like, I can see the scene in my mind and I know what the dialogue is. I just can’t seem to be able to write it down. So I delay.
@Kylopod:
@drj:
In Spanish, too, diminutives tend to come from the first syllable(s) of a name. When I think of one for a fictional character, I tend not to follow this trend. That’s one of the problems I ahve with diminutives in real life.
@Just nutha ignint cracker: Correct, my primary expertise is in a different area altogether and is how I butter my bread. However, I share my insights here so others can see what is happening, that it’s not magic, but predictable and, most importantly, can be countered.
And also, should anyone who is in the business of politics lurk this site, They will have a thread of research to pull and help their candidate.
Shorter: I’m in the peanut gallery like you. However I lived with Peanut farmers for 7 years–so I know a thing or two because I’ve seen a thing or two about the peanut business.
@Al Ameda: Yes, because Black people wanted Zimmerman tried. The RW wurtziler had to gin up white sentiment against even a trial to keep the grievance energy on high. Therefore, they made Bondi dance to the mob for why she was railroading Zimmerman.
Almost every Florida native knew he wouldn’t be convicted–because it’s Florida. But a machine that feeds off grievance needs an angle–and if one isn’t there they are advanced enough to create it.
@Kathy:
Advice you can take or ignore: write out the ending as best you can now. Several.
You now have something to think about and re-imagine. Something kind of real because it’s written down, it is so much more present. Easier to react to. It’s not permanent, it’s provisional, but it’s written. Easier to think through and push forward. If you’re stuck pick one and game it out. If unhappy pick another. Eventually you’ll end up with a synthesis of two or more ending scenarios that seem unrelated, but make sense and work for you. One, or a combination, hopefully, will resonate to you. That’s it.
Good luck. Don’t get stuck.
Stephen King can’t write a good denouement to save his life and he’s been doing this for decades.