James Joyner is a Professor of Security Studies. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm veteran. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.
I happen to think that our support for Ukraine, Nato, and the international order are vital to our national interests. So what is happening now with Trump, Hegseth, and Putin is unacceptable. Actually makes me angry.
This morning (around 0400) I fired this off to my Senators and Representative. It is not the most well written or reasoned writing that I’ve done. It is more of a cri de coeur. Regardless, here it is:
The statements by President Trump, SecDef Hegseth, and others in this administration with respect to Ukraine, Nato, and foreign policy in general are unacceptable to this career AF veteran. It is tantamount to surrendering to our enemies. It is bordering on treason. If you don’t denounce them, I will consider you to be at best a useful idiot if not a fellow traveller. Trump is one step from declaring “peace in our time”. It will end in disaster for the US and the world. Speak out, Senator. Clearly and boldly. Do not go all wobbly on this country and do not surrender our national values that we defended and fought for.
So we’re abandoning the greatest alliance in history. Key quotes:
“The Pentagon chief said he was “here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe”, though the language was notably toned down from a draft briefed in advance to the press.
That had said the US was no longer “the primary guarantor of security in Europe” and appeared to suggest a recasting of the 75-year-old Nato alliance, created after the second world war to protect western Europe from the Soviet bloc.
But in a speech to the Ukraine contact group of defence ministers in Brussels, chaired by the UK’s defence secretary, John Healey, he softened the language – a day before he is due to attend his first Nato summit of defence ministers.
Hegseth said the US was shifting its military priorities to defending its homeland and deterring China, and he called on European Nato members to hike defence budgets to 5% of GDP to better defend the continent.”
And we knifed Ukraine in the back as well:
“As an example, Hegseth said Europe “must provide the overwhelming share of future lethal and nonlethal aid to Ukraine” in the future – though he did not say the US would halt all its military aid, which has been critical in helping Kyiv resist the Russian invasion.
He also reiterated Trump’s position that “stopping the fighting and reaching an enduring peace” in Ukraine is a top priority – and that Kyiv must recognise that it cannot win back all the land occupied by Russia.”
Where to begin? Well, let’s start with the changes from the briefing note which had the advantage of being more blunt and understandable. Hegseth’s meandering announcement leaves far too much ambiguity out there.
Also: if we’re not going to back our decades-long commitment to Europe based on a decades-long commitment to deterring Russia, then are we still in NATO? If yes, then why are we still in NATO? Why should our NATO allies give a *bleeping bleep* what our opinions are with regard to their defense spending?
And how about the commitment that NATO allies do not invade or threaten military action against each other? Someone may want to check with Denmark’s government on that front – they might have some questions. (Ditto Canada’s government, but Trump hasn’t actually threatened them with military invasion – yet.)
Did any American ambassadors to Europe get a head’s-up on this announcement? Did they get answers or at least talking points so they’ve got something to say when they get called on the carpet by their host countries?
Just incredible.
Oh, and I look forward to hearing how we’re going to “deter” China. I’m sure it might take plastic surgery to get the smile off Xi’s face.
Four-year-old spoke for America when he apparently told Trump to zip it in the Oval Office.
“Then came the moment that has been shared across social media. “I want you to shush your mouth,” [Elon Musk’s son] X appears to have whispered to Trump, who did not respond. X was also seen mimicking Musk’s gestures and picking his nose before wiping it on the Resolute desk, gifted to President Rutherford Hayes by Queen Victoria in 1880.”
I first came upon OTB shortly after the post-9/11 invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan while searching for intelligent and honest supporters of the war in Iraq, to provide a contrast to my own opinion. I found that here, and appreciate James’ efforts in running this blog, as well as the countless posts he has put up over the years, and that goes for Steven, Matt and all the other top level posters we’ve had. The comments section has been a wonderful place to hear about things outside my relatively mundane life and to hear from real experts on widely disparate subjects. Coming here has been a regular part of my daily routine. So it is with some sadness that I’ve decided to take a break from this site, perhaps permanently.
The most important reason is I need to find a like minded group that is actively opposing the fascists. As near as I can see the only way this ends without violence or years of dictatorship is impeachment, and that lies in the hands of the Republican Congress members. Putting pressure on them is paramount, as they are weak and vapid creatures and right now the easiest thing for them is to blindly okay everything the Trump regime wants. That needs to change. I don’t think the top level posters at OTB are going to advocate in such a direct way, and that’s fine – activism is not what this site has ever been about. But time spent here, at least for me, is time not doing anything about the fourth great existential crisis of the United States.
But there are a few other reasons. The endless and bitter circling discussion of how the “Liberals and Democrats failed” seems like a waste of time to me. The people who failed us are those who voted for Trump, the Republican officials who have tossed their oaths of office and their duty in the trash, the billionaires who for decades have corrupted the courts and political parties to pave the way to fascism, and those who, like Merrick Garland, were tasked with reigning in a criminal and failed to act with the energy and decisiveness that the times demand. It is a tool and a blessing to fascist governments that it is so easy to set those who oppose them against each other and thereby distract them.
I was also frankly stunned that we had five top level posts on the “serious violation of norms” when Biden proactively pardoned those that a criminal and corrupt Trump had vowed to go after and destroy. What’s next, a discussion of Chiune Sugihara’s abuse of office in issuing thousands of visas to Jews in WWII?
And lastly, it seems that more and more of the comment section is taken up with the endless flailing against a few individuals who are not here to contribute but merely to fling shit against the walls. I do my best to ignore this, but the other day I opened up four or five posts and saw that the majority of the comments were taken up by this activity, over and over and over again, ad nauseum. It is up to the site administrators how they police the comment section so I respect their decision to allow this to go on. But I realized, sadly, that for me it’s just not worth wading through the trash anymore to find the pearls in there.
There are many here that I will miss, though, and so I wish James, Stephen, Matt and all the commenters here the very best.
Presendencies, lately, are won on the margin. If you fuck up during, either actual or perceived, and with too small a grace margin, you’re gonna get bounced.
Actively inducing inflation via tariffs and trade wars seems like a very stupid move. Didn’t Trump campaign on reducing inflation? Nope, it’s gonna be the 2025 playbook and the authors. We’ll see how it plays out.
I hate to say it, but NATO is dead (or at least the US’ role in it). There is just no way that Trump will ever back an ally – any ally – unless it will benefit him directly and personally. Even apart from the fact that he simply likes autocrats better.
He’d rather threaten allies – even Canada! – than to help protect them.
What’s left of the US’ role in NATO right now is perhaps some training programs and vestigial intelligence sharing.
As long as Trump is CiC, there is nothing the US will do when the bullets start flying. Well maybe invade Canada or Greenland while the world is distracted.
Painful as it is, better to face the truth than to keep pretending.
Something occurred to me. How many American troops are based in Europe?
According to USA facts, “The top five countries with the highest number of stationed US troops are Japan (53,246), Germany (35,188), South Korea (24,159), Italy (12,405), and the United Kingdom (9,949). These troops are stationed at US-owned and operated military bases.”
And
“As of June 2022, the US had more than 100,000 service members across Europe.”
We also have nine military bases in Europe.
Nice little military presence you got there. Pity if something happened to it.
I hear what you’re saying. I will depart this site when we leave the country. Until then, I’ll comment. If the trolls continue to post without restrictions, then my regrets will be pretty much non-existent.
@Scott: Thanks Scott. I’m motivated to do the same. What medium did you use to convey your message to your representatives?
The abandonment of Ukraine is completely antithetical to this nation’s known security interests. Money spent on Ukraine’s survival is far better spent than the cost redirecting our military for “rounding up” 12 million undocumented workers (who contribute $40B in taxes, build our homes, fill hospitality industry and agriculture positions etc.).
The MAGA crowd loves to elevate their “Western European” origins, values, etc but mindlessly throw Europe under the jack-boots of Putin’s rampage. This does not end with Ukraine. The Putin machine said so.
The problem is compounded by the fact that Trump has revealed his quest for an expanding American empire. “Making America Great Again” now includes making a physically “Greater America” by expanding our boundaries to Greenland, Canada, Gulf of MEXICO, and perhaps beyond.
Trump and sycophants now join Putin and Xi and Netanyahu, to refute our modern era social compact ensuring the sovereignty of nations. All four are willing to use violence to extend physical dominion over foreign territory. “We have met the enemy, and he is us.”
“The Pentagon chief said he was “here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe”, though the language was notably toned down from a draft briefed in advance to the press.
Mindless obfuscation of the real intent to accede to Putin’s expansionism and extend support to the rising rightwing (and fascist) movements in Europe.
@Rob1: I just used the individual contact sites on Senate.gov and House.gov. Being from Texas, I sent it to Sen Cornyn and Cruz, and Representative Morgan Lutrell.
@MarkedMan: I’m not a frequent poster here but I have been reading for… decades (argh). I agree with much of what you say, but I hope you reconsider your decision to stop visiting this site. You are a valuable member of this community. I understand the frustration of the trolls here, but the signal-to-noise ratio is still quite high. Don’t give them a small victory.
I think that they think we’ll be okay with Trumpflation because ‘america!’ Who needs steel? Aluminum is for pussies! Who needs the CDC, raw milk is fine. Raw milk for everyone! I love my exorbitant credit card fees. Fuck the CFPB and their woke agenda.
If you tickle the fee-fees of white nationalists, they’ll vote for you. Is that a big enough margin next time?
They’re betting the farm on being in power forever. It’s really disturbing.
Project 2025 authors and proponents and adherents think they’ll be in power forever.
The abandonment of Ukraine is completely antithetical to this nation’s known security interests. Money spent on Ukraine’s survival is far better spent than the cost redirecting our military…
Right, and most of that money has been spent on US-made materiel. For items drawn from existing inventory, this has the added benefit of enabling the production of replacements having technological and capability updates for our military.
Short form: $4.5T revenue cuts (via tax cuts) balanced by $1.3T spending cuts (announced). DOGE math: 4.5 = 1.3
House Republicans unveil blueprint to extend $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and lift the debt ceiling
House Republicans released a budget plan Wednesday that sets the stage for advancing many of President Donald Trump’s top domestic priorities, providing for up to $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and a $4 trillion increase in the debt limit so the U.S. can continue financing its bills.[..]
The Energy and Commerce Committee, which handles health care spending, is asked to cut $880 billion over the decade, while the Education and Workforce Committee is asked to reduce spending by $330 billion. The Agriculture Committee is asked to save $230 billion, while the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee is asked to find at least $10 billion in cuts through 2034.
Or, let the tax cuts expire, fund the programs with part, make payment towards debt with rest. I mean, if they’re really concerned about the national debt.
I wonder what the world’s defense ministers will think when Hegseth proves incapable of explaining what he has been told to say by his Project 2025 handlers.
For those wistfully looking back to the late 1800s and the Gilded Age as the best time in American history, here are three episodes to remind yourselves:
The Battle of Blair Mountain was the largest labor uprising in United States history and is the largest armed uprising since the American Civil War. The conflict occurred in Logan County, West Virginia, as part of the Coal Wars, a series of early-20th-century labor disputes in Appalachia.
For five days from late August to early September 1921, some 10,000 armed coal miners confronted 3,000 lawmen and strikebreakers (called the Logan Defenders) who were backed by coal mine operators during the miners’ attempt to unionize the southwestern West Virginia coalfields when tensions rose between workers and mine management. The battle ended after approximately one million rounds were fired, and the United States Army, represented by the West Virginia Army National Guard led by McDowell County native William Eubanks, intervened by presidential order.
The Homestead strike, also known as the Homestead steel strike, Homestead massacre, or Battle of Homestead, was an industrial lockout and strike that began on July 1, 1892, culminating in a battle in which strikers defeated private security agents on July 6, 1892.
The governor responded by sending in the National Guard to protect strikebreakers. The dispute occurred at the Homestead Steel Works in the Pittsburgh-area town of Homestead, Pennsylvania, between the Amalgamated Association of Iron and Steel Workers (the AA) and the Carnegie Steel Company. The final result was a major defeat for the union strikers and a setback for their efforts to unionize steelworkers. The battle was a pivotal event in U.S. labor history.
The Pullman Strike comprised two interrelated strikes in 1894 that shaped national labor policy in the United States during a period of deep economic depression. First came a strike by the American Railway Union (ARU) against the Pullman Company’s factory in Chicago in spring 1894. When it failed, the ARU launched a national boycott against all trains that carried Pullman passenger cars. The nationwide railroad boycott that lasted from May 11 to July 20, 1894, was a turning point for US labor law. It pitted the American Railway Union (ARU) against the Pullman Company, the main railroads, the main labor unions, and the federal government of the United States under President Grover Cleveland.
…
The federal government obtained an injunction against the union, Debs, and other boycott leaders, ordering them to stop interfering with trains that carried mail cars. After the strikers refused, Grover Cleveland ordered in the Army to stop the strikers from obstructing the trains. Violence broke out in many cities, and the strike collapsed. Defended by a team including Clarence Darrow, Debs was convicted of violating a court order and sentenced to prison; the ARU then dissolved.
What is one aspect that is common to all three events? The oligarchs at the time used the government to violently accomplish their goals.
Continuing with the credit card theme, here’s something that happened years ago. Between being short on funds and shorter on time, and having had problems paying this particular card with a banks transfer, I missed a payment.
I got lots of calls to pay up right away. I told them the same thing: the late fee is already there, so are the additional interests; I’ll pay before next month’s due date, covering both months. Other than the card being inactive due to the missed payment, the difference between paying RIGHT NOW or in 20 odd days or so was small. And I was still short on funds.
The calls became frantic. They threatened my credit score, they told me they might put liens, take me to trial, etc. I got five to ten calls each day.
Eventually next month’ due date arrived and I paid and the calls stopped. In between, I got a letter form the bank telling me that “due to the excellent handling of your credit line, we’re increasing your limit by this much.”
@Scott: I should, and probably will, follow your example, as I’m struggling to find anything more useful to do. But asking Sen. Rick Scott to do the right thing does seem pointless.
most of that money has been spent on US-made materiel. For items drawn from existing inventory, this has the added benefit of enabling the production of replacements having technological and capability updates for our military
@DAllenABQ: Cheryl Rofer has a bit of background for those who haven’t followed Drum. Drum has fought off cancer for ten years, but his immune system has suffered.
@Kathy: That’s fascinating, and a lot of work on their part for a single missed payment. Most cards tend to love it when people make the minimum payment only, it means more interest payments accruing. Missing a payment completely must mean a different set of steps kicks in.
Hi, 20+ year lurker / supporter here, writing to express my gratitude to this exceptional community which has helped me keep my sanity intact as the world seems to get stubbornly darker. The idea that it might disappear saddens me. Whatever the future holds, I am in debt to all of you who contribute discussion with honesty and knowledge.
I think there is value in a site that offers info that others might not know and sometimes people just need to bitch. It’s a benefit that people writing on the blog actually have some expertise in the areas they usually write upon and its also a benefit, IMO, that they are willing to criticize their own team when appropriate. If you want to belong to a party where you need 100% compliance with the (cult) leader we have the GOP already, but that’s not for me. It’s not truly an activist site but I am not sure what that would be TBH. Mostly we need to win some votes.
@Jen: Could be unique to the situation of who she banks/does credit with. I’ve occasionally missed a payment and never noticed until the next bill demanding a much higher minimum payment came.
These days, I have only one credit and one debit card and zero residual balance. Even so, I occasionally get a reminder from Discover a few days ahead of the due date that I haven’t paid yet.
Yes. I would encourage those now throwing up their hands in utter despair just three weeks into the Trump era to remember that the oligarchs won some battles but lost the war.
I think they turn all such things to a collections agency, and their strategy is to annoy you into paying NOW!!
I had some fun with it. I asked a few times if their bank was really solvent, seeing how this small missing payment caused them so much consternation. perhaps I should move my money to another bank? And if they’re not solvent, maybe I won’t pay at all.
Alas, the people reading from a script had no clue what to answer.
@Kathy: Snerk. You’re reminding me of the time when I was getting harangued by an insurance salesman trying to convince me to sign up for some very expensive after-purchase insurance to “protect yourself against your computer being damaged.” I pointed out that based on the price that she was claiming my AT&T computer was such a piece of crap that chances were high it would die within a year, and did AT&T know that she was representing the quality of their computers in such a way?
@MarkedMan: Adding my voice to the chorus that is sad to see this, along with Michael Reynold’s note the other day that he will be spending less time here.
For me, this site is a good read, with thoughtful commenters and hosts that I trust to bring forth interesting topics. The open forum is a delight, I never know if I’m going to learn about a 15th century monk’s philosophy, details of the entertainment industry, instapot recipes or a discussion about farming practices and polish roosters.
“As of June 2022, the US had more than 100,000 service members across Europe.”
And said 100,000 are mostly admin, logistic and support formations.
Including air force ground crew that service USAF global operations staging out of Europe into the Middle East and en route to Diego Garcia. And US Navy shore establishments for support of US ships operating in or transiting through the Med.
The US Army permanent presence in Europe is a shadow of its former self.
Currently nominal V Corps has an actual ground strength of one cavalry regiment (minus horses, I assume, lol), an artillery brigade of 2 battalions, and an combat aviation brigade of two battalions, one of attack helicopters, one of support/transport helicopters.
Then there’s US NATO Brigade: two battalions oriented to logistics and support.
And the air defence batteries at the main US bases.
There also forces that rotate in and out of Romania and Poland, numbers varying, usually amounting to a couple of battalions in each.
Plus, of course, the United States Army Europe Band and Chorus in Sembach.
In fact, the whole is rather greater than the sum of its parts, of considerable effective combat strength, and capable of rapid reinforcement. Its support, logistic, battle-management etc capabilities are of massive importance to the European combat formations that “plug in” to the NATO SHAPE/SACEUR command structure.
But compared to US forces of the Cold War, it’s much reduced.
For Europe to replace such would cost money, and take political will and above all concentrated Cabinet-level attention.
But it’s doable, obviously enough.
If this refers to my comment about finding a place where activists gather, then as I said above, I don’t think you should suddenly become an activist site. OTB is a place for discussion and commentary and is great for that. If it was referring to my comment about the tedious exchanges overwhelming the comments section, well, this is your and James’ site and you have made it clear what the grounds are for banning someone and I accept that.
(Is it irony that on the day I write that, there hasn’t been a single comment about anything from the shitposters?)
However, my real motivation is to spend less time here and so force myself to become more active in the real world. My plan is that every time I would have come to this site I will make a conscious effort to do some as yet to be defined “thing” to fight this regime. (Step 1: Define the “thing”.) In the past the endless back and forth with the shit spewers was just a minor annoyance but now is a painful reminder of how much effort is wasted.
I will note that I think that the following was unkind and unfair
I did not intend to be cruel, just frank. I truly do think the situations have a common root. And there is a very real chance that Trump’s perceived enemies could end up in this concentration camp he is building in Guantanamo, as his stated reason for building it makes no sense whatsoever.
And to everyone who responded with kind words, heartfelt thanks. As a couple of people suggested, when I do find something that I feel is productive I’ll come back and share it in the open thread.
Add me to the list of people who are sad to see this. I fully get it, sometimes we need breaks from things. It’s going to be a long haul for the next couple years.
That being said, and for what it’s worth, I would urge you to take a break, and then stay close. Over the next couple of years, we are going to need to spread information around to people we trust. There is value in this community and keeping in contact keeps us all stronger.
@MarkedMan: Adios! You will be missed, but ya gotta do what ya gotta do.
Between the ineffective handwringing and the contrarian shitposting trolls, I can see that some of the charm is lost.
Particularly the current trolls. I think back to the days of trolls like Superdestroyer — that was a man who had a consistent set of values (white supremacy), could express himself (and his offensive beliefs) clearly, was entirely earnest, and wasn’t just being contrarian for blind partisanship. The latest ones don’t hold a candle to him.
And about the lack of anything effectively fighting fascism — I think a lot of people here are waiting for the next shoe to drop, which will tell us whether this current flirtation of fascism will burn itself out by dropping shoes on its base (as they seem to be very clearly saying they will do), or whether it is getting more entrenched.
I was also frankly stunned that we had five top level posts on the “serious violation of norms” when Biden proactively pardoned those that a criminal and corrupt Trump had vowed to go after and destroy.
This is a little unfair. A lot of people are pulling back into their hobbies right now, to try to remind themselves of the joy in life. Complaining about Democrats and the violation of norms is our hosts’ hobby. It’s what brings them joy.
Meanwhile, I’m trying to figure out how to draw a batfish, for #fishyfeb on BlueSky, and it is just not working. Not bringing joy. Or a decent looking batfish. Stupid batfish. The juvenile Pinnatus Batfish does not look like it belongs in this world, and I’m not sure it can be drawn well.
Anyway, good luck, and if you figure out how to effectively fight fascism, drop by and let us know.
@MarkedMan:
Please add me to the group of greatly saddened, but understanding.
Speaking for myself, by and large OTB has been an intellectual god-send in a sea of internet crap.
As others have said the nature and character of the the trolls has gotten worse over the years, but I’m frustrated at how to isolate their shit-posting.
I freely acknowledge that many of the posters here are my intellectual superior (looking at you MM) and I’ve found that each week I’ve either learned something new, or been motivated to dig deeper into subjects that I’m ignorant towards).
If and when, OTB and it’s worthy commentariat degrade into the internet cesspool by driving off “the honest ones”, that will really be dark times for me.
I wish you well, when you find other venues, or if you only care enough about those who remain, please please share your thought about activism against our current threat. I for one will be listening!
Thanks for your insight and inspiration. Peace be with you.
bob
@Jen: Ignoring the trolls is the correct response. Filling up the comments with responses to people acting in bad faith, drowning out real conversation by opening the spigot of outraged reactions, wasting everyone’s energy and good intentions, is what the trolls want.
So President musk called people receiving benefits, “the parasite class”. Some would say this is fascist language, but it is really just an undistilled version of Romney’s 47% speech and Reagan’s, ” welfare queens”. Maybe the GOP and movement conservatives have been pretty fashy for over 40 years. Now they are just blunt about it.
@Scott: “What is one aspect that is common to all three events? The oligarchs at the time used the government to violently accomplish their goals.”
An excellent historical lesson. And to clarify, it wasn’t just the President, or the Congress, that helped the oligarchs. The SCT and other federal courts did so, too, in cases like In Re Debs. This paved the way for thwarting union efforts for multiple generations. That, in turn, indirectly led President Franklin Roosevelt and Congress to pass the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA) 42 years later, which required companies to deal openly with worker unions.
I think it is very important to keep these and other historical antecedents in mind. As with many “movements,” we may be opposing our present oligarchs and craven politicians for quite a long time before things get better . . .
I happen to think that our support for Ukraine, Nato, and the international order are vital to our national interests. So what is happening now with Trump, Hegseth, and Putin is unacceptable. Actually makes me angry.
This morning (around 0400) I fired this off to my Senators and Representative. It is not the most well written or reasoned writing that I’ve done. It is more of a cri de coeur. Regardless, here it is:
Headline at townhall.com this morning:
Trump to Deliver Bombshell Press Conference on Government Fraud and Waste Today
I can hardly wait.
So we’re abandoning the greatest alliance in history. Key quotes:
“The Pentagon chief said he was “here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe”, though the language was notably toned down from a draft briefed in advance to the press.
That had said the US was no longer “the primary guarantor of security in Europe” and appeared to suggest a recasting of the 75-year-old Nato alliance, created after the second world war to protect western Europe from the Soviet bloc.
But in a speech to the Ukraine contact group of defence ministers in Brussels, chaired by the UK’s defence secretary, John Healey, he softened the language – a day before he is due to attend his first Nato summit of defence ministers.
Hegseth said the US was shifting its military priorities to defending its homeland and deterring China, and he called on European Nato members to hike defence budgets to 5% of GDP to better defend the continent.”
And we knifed Ukraine in the back as well:
“As an example, Hegseth said Europe “must provide the overwhelming share of future lethal and nonlethal aid to Ukraine” in the future – though he did not say the US would halt all its military aid, which has been critical in helping Kyiv resist the Russian invasion.
He also reiterated Trump’s position that “stopping the fighting and reaching an enduring peace” in Ukraine is a top priority – and that Kyiv must recognise that it cannot win back all the land occupied by Russia.”
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/12/us-no-longer-primarily-focused-on-europes-security-says-pete-hegseth
Where to begin? Well, let’s start with the changes from the briefing note which had the advantage of being more blunt and understandable. Hegseth’s meandering announcement leaves far too much ambiguity out there.
Also: if we’re not going to back our decades-long commitment to Europe based on a decades-long commitment to deterring Russia, then are we still in NATO? If yes, then why are we still in NATO? Why should our NATO allies give a *bleeping bleep* what our opinions are with regard to their defense spending?
And how about the commitment that NATO allies do not invade or threaten military action against each other? Someone may want to check with Denmark’s government on that front – they might have some questions. (Ditto Canada’s government, but Trump hasn’t actually threatened them with military invasion – yet.)
Did any American ambassadors to Europe get a head’s-up on this announcement? Did they get answers or at least talking points so they’ve got something to say when they get called on the carpet by their host countries?
Just incredible.
Oh, and I look forward to hearing how we’re going to “deter” China. I’m sure it might take plastic surgery to get the smile off Xi’s face.
Four-year-old spoke for America when he apparently told Trump to zip it in the Oval Office.
“Then came the moment that has been shared across social media. “I want you to shush your mouth,” [Elon Musk’s son] X appears to have whispered to Trump, who did not respond. X was also seen mimicking Musk’s gestures and picking his nose before wiping it on the Resolute desk, gifted to President Rutherford Hayes by Queen Victoria in 1880.”
Source: https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/us-news/trump-news/2025/02/13/shush-your-mouth-musk-trump
I first came upon OTB shortly after the post-9/11 invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan while searching for intelligent and honest supporters of the war in Iraq, to provide a contrast to my own opinion. I found that here, and appreciate James’ efforts in running this blog, as well as the countless posts he has put up over the years, and that goes for Steven, Matt and all the other top level posters we’ve had. The comments section has been a wonderful place to hear about things outside my relatively mundane life and to hear from real experts on widely disparate subjects. Coming here has been a regular part of my daily routine. So it is with some sadness that I’ve decided to take a break from this site, perhaps permanently.
The most important reason is I need to find a like minded group that is actively opposing the fascists. As near as I can see the only way this ends without violence or years of dictatorship is impeachment, and that lies in the hands of the Republican Congress members. Putting pressure on them is paramount, as they are weak and vapid creatures and right now the easiest thing for them is to blindly okay everything the Trump regime wants. That needs to change. I don’t think the top level posters at OTB are going to advocate in such a direct way, and that’s fine – activism is not what this site has ever been about. But time spent here, at least for me, is time not doing anything about the fourth great existential crisis of the United States.
But there are a few other reasons. The endless and bitter circling discussion of how the “Liberals and Democrats failed” seems like a waste of time to me. The people who failed us are those who voted for Trump, the Republican officials who have tossed their oaths of office and their duty in the trash, the billionaires who for decades have corrupted the courts and political parties to pave the way to fascism, and those who, like Merrick Garland, were tasked with reigning in a criminal and failed to act with the energy and decisiveness that the times demand. It is a tool and a blessing to fascist governments that it is so easy to set those who oppose them against each other and thereby distract them.
I was also frankly stunned that we had five top level posts on the “serious violation of norms” when Biden proactively pardoned those that a criminal and corrupt Trump had vowed to go after and destroy. What’s next, a discussion of Chiune Sugihara’s abuse of office in issuing thousands of visas to Jews in WWII?
And lastly, it seems that more and more of the comment section is taken up with the endless flailing against a few individuals who are not here to contribute but merely to fling shit against the walls. I do my best to ignore this, but the other day I opened up four or five posts and saw that the majority of the comments were taken up by this activity, over and over and over again, ad nauseum. It is up to the site administrators how they police the comment section so I respect their decision to allow this to go on. But I realized, sadly, that for me it’s just not worth wading through the trash anymore to find the pearls in there.
There are many here that I will miss, though, and so I wish James, Stephen, Matt and all the commenters here the very best.
@Not the IT Dept.: Basically, they signaled to Xi that they would not resist a move on Taiwan or anything in the South China Sea.
Presendencies, lately, are won on the margin. If you fuck up during, either actual or perceived, and with too small a grace margin, you’re gonna get bounced.
Actively inducing inflation via tariffs and trade wars seems like a very stupid move. Didn’t Trump campaign on reducing inflation? Nope, it’s gonna be the 2025 playbook and the authors. We’ll see how it plays out.
@Scott:
I hate to say it, but NATO is dead (or at least the US’ role in it). There is just no way that Trump will ever back an ally – any ally – unless it will benefit him directly and personally. Even apart from the fact that he simply likes autocrats better.
He’d rather threaten allies – even Canada! – than to help protect them.
What’s left of the US’ role in NATO right now is perhaps some training programs and vestigial intelligence sharing.
As long as Trump is CiC, there is nothing the US will do when the bullets start flying. Well maybe invade Canada or Greenland while the world is distracted.
Painful as it is, better to face the truth than to keep pretending.
@MarkedMan: I will miss you, Marked Man! I’m sorry you feel like it’s become untenable for you here.
@MarkedMan:
Sorry to see you go. I do sympathize with your reasons, though.
Something occurred to me. How many American troops are based in Europe?
According to USA facts, “The top five countries with the highest number of stationed US troops are Japan (53,246), Germany (35,188), South Korea (24,159), Italy (12,405), and the United Kingdom (9,949). These troops are stationed at US-owned and operated military bases.”
And
“As of June 2022, the US had more than 100,000 service members across Europe.”
We also have nine military bases in Europe.
Nice little military presence you got there. Pity if something happened to it.
@MarkedMan:
I hope you reconsider.
Hey DOGE! Start cutting here. We don’t need no stinkin’ armored Cybertrucks!
Watch the conflicts of interests pile up. DOGE – Dodgy Oppressors Grabbing Everything (because when you’re famous)
@MarkedMan:
I hear what you’re saying. I will depart this site when we leave the country. Until then, I’ll comment. If the trolls continue to post without restrictions, then my regrets will be pretty much non-existent.
@Scott: Thanks Scott. I’m motivated to do the same. What medium did you use to convey your message to your representatives?
The abandonment of Ukraine is completely antithetical to this nation’s known security interests. Money spent on Ukraine’s survival is far better spent than the cost redirecting our military for “rounding up” 12 million undocumented workers (who contribute $40B in taxes, build our homes, fill hospitality industry and agriculture positions etc.).
The MAGA crowd loves to elevate their “Western European” origins, values, etc but mindlessly throw Europe under the jack-boots of Putin’s rampage. This does not end with Ukraine. The Putin machine said so.
The problem is compounded by the fact that Trump has revealed his quest for an expanding American empire. “Making America Great Again” now includes making a physically “Greater America” by expanding our boundaries to Greenland, Canada, Gulf of MEXICO, and perhaps beyond.
Trump and sycophants now join Putin and Xi and Netanyahu, to refute our modern era social compact ensuring the sovereignty of nations. All four are willing to use violence to extend physical dominion over foreign territory. “We have met the enemy, and he is us.”
@MarkedMan:
It’s your choice. Do as you will. Be you. I always liked your input.
@Not the IT Dept.:
Mindless obfuscation of the real intent to accede to Putin’s expansionism and extend support to the rising rightwing (and fascist) movements in Europe.
Are we ready to use the “T-word” yet? Treason.
@MarkedMan:..for me it’s just not worth wading through the trash anymore to find the pearls in there.
When you find a site on the internet that is troll free and littered with pearls let us all know.
@drj: NATO is decidedly not dead. It will exist without the US, but may get a new name.
@de stijl:
Correction: They are “gamed in the margin.”
@MarkedMan:
Please share it here. In fact, dissemination of information can be an important means of contributing to the fight. Reconsider sticking around.
@MarkedMan: Thanks for commenting over the years and I am sorry that you feel the need to leave.
I am not sure what you want/expect us to do here.
I will note that I think that the following was unkind and unfair:
At any rate, good luck to you in these difficult times.
Suppose China or Russia offer troops to defend Greenland from Yankee imperialism?
Suppose Canada begins to set up uranium enrichment plants, for commercial purposes.
@Rob1: I just used the individual contact sites on Senate.gov and House.gov. Being from Texas, I sent it to Sen Cornyn and Cruz, and Representative Morgan Lutrell.
@MarkedMan: I’m not a frequent poster here but I have been reading for… decades (argh). I agree with much of what you say, but I hope you reconsider your decision to stop visiting this site. You are a valuable member of this community. I understand the frustration of the trolls here, but the signal-to-noise ratio is still quite high. Don’t give them a small victory.
@de stijl:
I think that they think we’ll be okay with Trumpflation because ‘america!’ Who needs steel? Aluminum is for pussies! Who needs the CDC, raw milk is fine. Raw milk for everyone! I love my exorbitant credit card fees. Fuck the CFPB and their woke agenda.
If you tickle the fee-fees of white nationalists, they’ll vote for you. Is that a big enough margin next time?
They’re betting the farm on being in power forever. It’s really disturbing.
Project 2025 authors and proponents and adherents think they’ll be in power forever.
@Rob1:
Right, and most of that money has been spent on US-made materiel. For items drawn from existing inventory, this has the added benefit of enabling the production of replacements having technological and capability updates for our military.
Death by a trillion cuts.
Short form: $4.5T revenue cuts (via tax cuts) balanced by $1.3T spending cuts (announced). DOGE math: 4.5 = 1.3
Or, let the tax cuts expire, fund the programs with part, make payment towards debt with rest. I mean, if they’re really concerned about the national debt.
I wonder what the world’s defense ministers will think when Hegseth proves incapable of explaining what he has been told to say by his Project 2025 handlers.
For those wistfully looking back to the late 1800s and the Gilded Age as the best time in American history, here are three episodes to remind yourselves:
Battle of Blair Mountain
Homestead Strike
Pullman Strike
What is one aspect that is common to all three events? The oligarchs at the time used the government to violently accomplish their goals.
Continuing with the credit card theme, here’s something that happened years ago. Between being short on funds and shorter on time, and having had problems paying this particular card with a banks transfer, I missed a payment.
I got lots of calls to pay up right away. I told them the same thing: the late fee is already there, so are the additional interests; I’ll pay before next month’s due date, covering both months. Other than the card being inactive due to the missed payment, the difference between paying RIGHT NOW or in 20 odd days or so was small. And I was still short on funds.
The calls became frantic. They threatened my credit score, they told me they might put liens, take me to trial, etc. I got five to ten calls each day.
Eventually next month’ due date arrived and I paid and the calls stopped. In between, I got a letter form the bank telling me that “due to the excellent handling of your credit line, we’re increasing your limit by this much.”
Which is it?
I am sorry to say that it appears Kevin Drum is in bad shape. His latest post:
“Fading fast. Pneumonia worse. Ventilator next. Not looking good. Take care of Donald Trump for me.”
@Scott: I should, and probably will, follow your example, as I’m struggling to find anything more useful to do. But asking Sen. Rick Scott to do the right thing does seem pointless.
@Eusebio:
Important points you raise.
DOGE is dumber than dirt.
@MarkedMan: Go in peace with my good wishes for you to find the intellectual community you seek.
@DAllenABQ: This is disturbing news. I hope he recovers.
@MarkedMan:
Please don’t go. You are one of the people I look forward to reading.
Or, at least please stop by occasionally, and lend us any insights you may find for resisting this slide into autocracy.
@Scott: Harbingers of things to come.
@gVOR10: “There’s some good in this world, Mr. Frodo … and it’s worth fighting for.”
@DAllenABQ: Cheryl Rofer has a bit of background for those who haven’t followed Drum. Drum has fought off cancer for ten years, but his immune system has suffered.
RFK Jr. has been confirmed as HHS secretary.
@MarkedMan: Well, that’s a kick in the head.
You will be sorely missed. Stay safe.
@Scott:
I need to watch Matewan again. It’s been awhile.
@Kathy: That’s fascinating, and a lot of work on their part for a single missed payment. Most cards tend to love it when people make the minimum payment only, it means more interest payments accruing. Missing a payment completely must mean a different set of steps kicks in.
Hi, 20+ year lurker / supporter here, writing to express my gratitude to this exceptional community which has helped me keep my sanity intact as the world seems to get stubbornly darker. The idea that it might disappear saddens me. Whatever the future holds, I am in debt to all of you who contribute discussion with honesty and knowledge.
I think there is value in a site that offers info that others might not know and sometimes people just need to bitch. It’s a benefit that people writing on the blog actually have some expertise in the areas they usually write upon and its also a benefit, IMO, that they are willing to criticize their own team when appropriate. If you want to belong to a party where you need 100% compliance with the (cult) leader we have the GOP already, but that’s not for me. It’s not truly an activist site but I am not sure what that would be TBH. Mostly we need to win some votes.
Steve
@Jen: Could be unique to the situation of who she banks/does credit with. I’ve occasionally missed a payment and never noticed until the next bill demanding a much higher minimum payment came.
These days, I have only one credit and one debit card and zero residual balance. Even so, I occasionally get a reminder from Discover a few days ahead of the due date that I haven’t paid yet.
@Scott:
Yes. I would encourage those now throwing up their hands in utter despair just three weeks into the Trump era to remember that the oligarchs won some battles but lost the war.
@Jen:
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
I think they turn all such things to a collections agency, and their strategy is to annoy you into paying NOW!!
I had some fun with it. I asked a few times if their bank was really solvent, seeing how this small missing payment caused them so much consternation. perhaps I should move my money to another bank? And if they’re not solvent, maybe I won’t pay at all.
Alas, the people reading from a script had no clue what to answer.
@Kathy: Snerk. You’re reminding me of the time when I was getting harangued by an insurance salesman trying to convince me to sign up for some very expensive after-purchase insurance to “protect yourself against your computer being damaged.” I pointed out that based on the price that she was claiming my AT&T computer was such a piece of crap that chances were high it would die within a year, and did AT&T know that she was representing the quality of their computers in such a way?
Dead silence.
Worcester, Mass. has declared itself a sanctuary city for the transgendered.
According to Mediaite, Matt Schlapp of CPAC fame sexually assaulted a man at bar last weekend.
@CSK: Here’s some reporting from a local Worcester newspaper: https://www.telegram.com/story/news/local/worcester/2025/02/12/nguyen-returns-as-council-backs-sanctuary-for-transgender-gender-diverse/78430723007/
A longish read, but interesting.
@CSK:
Conservative People Acting Creepy.
@MarkedMan: Adding my voice to the chorus that is sad to see this, along with Michael Reynold’s note the other day that he will be spending less time here.
For me, this site is a good read, with thoughtful commenters and hosts that I trust to bring forth interesting topics. The open forum is a delight, I never know if I’m going to learn about a 15th century monk’s philosophy, details of the entertainment industry, instapot recipes or a discussion about farming practices and polish roosters.
You’ll be missed.
@Not the IT Dept.:
And said 100,000 are mostly admin, logistic and support formations.
Including air force ground crew that service USAF global operations staging out of Europe into the Middle East and en route to Diego Garcia. And US Navy shore establishments for support of US ships operating in or transiting through the Med.
The US Army permanent presence in Europe is a shadow of its former self.
Currently nominal V Corps has an actual ground strength of one cavalry regiment (minus horses, I assume, lol), an artillery brigade of 2 battalions, and an combat aviation brigade of two battalions, one of attack helicopters, one of support/transport helicopters.
Then there’s US NATO Brigade: two battalions oriented to logistics and support.
And the air defence batteries at the main US bases.
There also forces that rotate in and out of Romania and Poland, numbers varying, usually amounting to a couple of battalions in each.
Plus, of course, the United States Army Europe Band and Chorus in Sembach.
In fact, the whole is rather greater than the sum of its parts, of considerable effective combat strength, and capable of rapid reinforcement. Its support, logistic, battle-management etc capabilities are of massive importance to the European combat formations that “plug in” to the NATO SHAPE/SACEUR command structure.
But compared to US forces of the Cold War, it’s much reduced.
For Europe to replace such would cost money, and take political will and above all concentrated Cabinet-level attention.
But it’s doable, obviously enough.
@MarkedMan:
Sorry to see you leaving.
Be well.
I missed Mike Reynolds’ note about spending less time here.
Also a pity.
@Steven L. Taylor:
If this refers to my comment about finding a place where activists gather, then as I said above, I don’t think you should suddenly become an activist site. OTB is a place for discussion and commentary and is great for that. If it was referring to my comment about the tedious exchanges overwhelming the comments section, well, this is your and James’ site and you have made it clear what the grounds are for banning someone and I accept that.
(Is it irony that on the day I write that, there hasn’t been a single comment about anything from the shitposters?)
However, my real motivation is to spend less time here and so force myself to become more active in the real world. My plan is that every time I would have come to this site I will make a conscious effort to do some as yet to be defined “thing” to fight this regime. (Step 1: Define the “thing”.) In the past the endless back and forth with the shit spewers was just a minor annoyance but now is a painful reminder of how much effort is wasted.
I did not intend to be cruel, just frank. I truly do think the situations have a common root. And there is a very real chance that Trump’s perceived enemies could end up in this concentration camp he is building in Guantanamo, as his stated reason for building it makes no sense whatsoever.
And to everyone who responded with kind words, heartfelt thanks. As a couple of people suggested, when I do find something that I feel is productive I’ll come back and share it in the open thread.
@MarkedMan:
(Is it irony that on the day I write that, there hasn’t been a single comment about anything from the shitposters?)
Eh, Connor’s found a spot on James’ post, but is (mostly) being ignored.
@MarkedMan:
Add me to the list of people who are sad to see this. I fully get it, sometimes we need breaks from things. It’s going to be a long haul for the next couple years.
That being said, and for what it’s worth, I would urge you to take a break, and then stay close. Over the next couple of years, we are going to need to spread information around to people we trust. There is value in this community and keeping in contact keeps us all stronger.
@MarkedMan: Adios! You will be missed, but ya gotta do what ya gotta do.
Between the ineffective handwringing and the contrarian shitposting trolls, I can see that some of the charm is lost.
Particularly the current trolls. I think back to the days of trolls like Superdestroyer — that was a man who had a consistent set of values (white supremacy), could express himself (and his offensive beliefs) clearly, was entirely earnest, and wasn’t just being contrarian for blind partisanship. The latest ones don’t hold a candle to him.
And about the lack of anything effectively fighting fascism — I think a lot of people here are waiting for the next shoe to drop, which will tell us whether this current flirtation of fascism will burn itself out by dropping shoes on its base (as they seem to be very clearly saying they will do), or whether it is getting more entrenched.
This is a little unfair. A lot of people are pulling back into their hobbies right now, to try to remind themselves of the joy in life. Complaining about Democrats and the violation of norms is our hosts’ hobby. It’s what brings them joy.
Meanwhile, I’m trying to figure out how to draw a batfish, for #fishyfeb on BlueSky, and it is just not working. Not bringing joy. Or a decent looking batfish. Stupid batfish. The juvenile Pinnatus Batfish does not look like it belongs in this world, and I’m not sure it can be drawn well.
Anyway, good luck, and if you figure out how to effectively fight fascism, drop by and let us know.
@MarkedMan:
Please add me to the group of greatly saddened, but understanding.
Speaking for myself, by and large OTB has been an intellectual god-send in a sea of internet crap.
As others have said the nature and character of the the trolls has gotten worse over the years, but I’m frustrated at how to isolate their shit-posting.
I freely acknowledge that many of the posters here are my intellectual superior (looking at you MM) and I’ve found that each week I’ve either learned something new, or been motivated to dig deeper into subjects that I’m ignorant towards).
If and when, OTB and it’s worthy commentariat degrade into the internet cesspool by driving off “the honest ones”, that will really be dark times for me.
I wish you well, when you find other venues, or if you only care enough about those who remain, please please share your thought about activism against our current threat. I for one will be listening!
Thanks for your insight and inspiration. Peace be with you.
bob
@Jen: Ignoring the trolls is the correct response. Filling up the comments with responses to people acting in bad faith, drowning out real conversation by opening the spigot of outraged reactions, wasting everyone’s energy and good intentions, is what the trolls want.
So President musk called people receiving benefits, “the parasite class”. Some would say this is fascist language, but it is really just an undistilled version of Romney’s 47% speech and Reagan’s, ” welfare queens”. Maybe the GOP and movement conservatives have been pretty fashy for over 40 years. Now they are just blunt about it.
@Thomm: Christ, that’s something else, coming from a man who has multiple companies sucking down federal dollars.
@Scott: “What is one aspect that is common to all three events? The oligarchs at the time used the government to violently accomplish their goals.”
An excellent historical lesson. And to clarify, it wasn’t just the President, or the Congress, that helped the oligarchs. The SCT and other federal courts did so, too, in cases like In Re Debs. This paved the way for thwarting union efforts for multiple generations. That, in turn, indirectly led President Franklin Roosevelt and Congress to pass the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA) 42 years later, which required companies to deal openly with worker unions.
I think it is very important to keep these and other historical antecedents in mind. As with many “movements,” we may be opposing our present oligarchs and craven politicians for quite a long time before things get better . . .