Valentine’s Day Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Friday, February 14, 2025
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89 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on
Twitter and/or
BlueSky.
Well. Trump has already humiliated Lil Marco and DUI hire Hegseth:
Russia Embarrasses Marco Rubio With Update on Prisoner Release (TNR)
NBC:
Not to be outdone, Hegseth promptly stepped in it:
Pete Hegseth Walks Back Yesterday’s Policy Announcement on Ukraine and NATO (National Review)
Only surprising and disappointing if, like the conservative sellouts at NR, you’re so addled on Biden Derangement Syndrome you actually expect improvement from reality TV rapist buffoon Trump and his unqualified clown car cabinet.
So now the whole world knows the word of the US Secretary of the State and Defense Secretary is useless. Yikes.
And then Vance goes and really muddies the waters by threatening that we’ll send troops to Ukraine unless Russia does something or other to be worked out at a future date.
“Vice President JD Vance warned on Thursday that the United States could send troops to Ukraine and hit Russia with further sanctions if Vladimir Putin doesn’t negotiate a peace deal in good faith. Speaking to the Wall Street Journal on Thursday, Vance said the option of sending US troops to Ukraine was “on the table,” as well as economic punishment if a peace deal doesn’t guarantee Kyiv’s long-term independence.”
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/14/politics/jd-vance-us-troops-russia-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html
So I’m sure we’ll get another clarification today that will restore the status quo, and that Trump will be sent to the Naughty Corner for a time-out because Daddy Vlad is very, very angry with his little boy.
Meanwhile European heads of state are all “What the F**k???” in 24 official EU languages.
Happy VD Day to all!
And remember.
Love is fleeting.
Herpes is forever!
@Not the IT Dept.: Well, there is strategic value in leaving your antagonists befuddled.
Not so sure it helps when allies are similarly confused. Although given the Musk administration’s determination to isolate the US and turn allies into enemies, that might not matter.
My wife had a great idea re Elon Musk’s apparent hold on Trump’s genitalia.
Trump thinks that Elon Musk rigged the 2024 election and got him the presidency and a GOP House and Senate as well. Of course Musk didn’t do any such thing, and wouldn’t have wasted his time trying such a futile act, but he’s telling Trump he did several times a day. Musk is also claiming that unless he gets whatever he wants, he’ll rat out Trump as the instigator of the whole thing and that might even be treason and the penalty for treason in America could well be the death penalty.
Why would Trump accept this? Let’s assume he really, really believes that Biden rigged the 2020 election. He doesn’t know how because he doesn’t have the technical expertise to understand any explanation, and like a lot of people today he tends to ascribe magical properties to computers and technology. So he’s paying Musk’s price and putting up with being humiliated in the Oval Office by Musk and his kid and reading in the print and digital press about how foolish he looked.
Fraudulently claiming to have committed fraud. I would love this to be true because it would be a milestone of stupidity for this century (so far).
We have little trade with Russia. Sanction threats dont carry much weight. We tried pretty hard to keep troops out of Ukraine. A lot of MAGA types claimed we were risking nuclear war doing what we already did. Now watch them flip and praise Trump for being strong.
Steve
Who needs vaccinations anyway?
Texas health department cancels immunization conference amid CDC gag order
@Mister Bluster:
I have always assured my children:
My love is constant.
Like is minute to minute.
@Not the IT Dept.: An interesting hypothesis. It would make a helluva of a plot line for a novelist.
@Not the IT Dept.: An interesting hypothesis. It would make a helluva of a plot line for a novelist.
@SC_Birdflyte:
If anyone wants it for a plot, my wife says “be my guest”. She says if it gets published, she’d like an autographed copy.
Hegseth, like the Press Secretary, thinks the campaign is still on and being un-tethered from reality is a job requirement. The fact that Rubio, Vance and Hegseth are all in the dark is a reflection of the fact that Trump is clueless and his foreign policy is nothing more than a bumper sticker. How ironic that Trump’s perpetual whine that “the world is laughing at us” is only true when he is in office.
Carrier and destroyer that was in escort were not transmitting their AIS against normal Navy policy in congested waters. They were transiting the anchorage at the north end of the Suez Canal in what appears to be preparation for transit of the canal. The bulker had just left the canal headed for Romania. Destroyer did transmit AIS for a short period after collision as it moved out of the area. Old data shows both Navy ships northwest of collision point.
@JKB: Here’s a picture of the damage.
https://www.dvidshub.net/image/8871530/uss-harry-s-truman-involved-collision-sea
That J. D. Vance, eh?
What a charmer.
Or, to put it another way, lay off the tech-bros with your horrid demands for accuracy and not inciting violence, and squeamishness about bigging-up the nazis on social media!
Also a lecture on migration, cuture, religion.
Basically the whole AfD/RN/Reform agenda.
Imagine his response if a European leader delivered a lecture to Congress on the shortcomings of US domestic policy.
Shove it, Blue Eyes.
@Mister Bluster:
Aren’t vaccines for long enough?
On other matters, I finished season 1 of Hazbin Hotel. I see some similarities with The Good Place and Niven’s updated version of Dante in Inferno, albeit with significant differences. Niven pretty much sets Hell as a chance for redemption, The Good Place turns The Bad Place into a space for redemption, and Hazbin’s Hell couldn’t care less about redemption.
Curious that all three have some mechanism whereby a soul can be wiped out.
I will need to rewatch the season, since I tend to tune out songs in musicals. It took me til the third or fourth ep to realize the songs were part of the story and/or character arc, and not just musical numbers belaboring points already made.
Übermensch — on to the next phase of MAGA
So let’s break this down:
1) MAGA believes legacy competitive sports stiffle human competition by disallowing performance enhancing drugs — BUT MAGA hates gender diversity in competitive sports even when ordained by genetics.
2 thru 9) The world’s wealthiest mega-industrialist just sold $400M worth of armored cybertrucks (*) to the US govt while acting as close advisor to the President, and recently gave a speech in front of the not-fascist fascist AfD party in Germany. Our newly seated President, who instigated a violent mob take-over of a Congress building four years ago, triggering a DOJ investigation of his activities that was upended with the return to power by the very party he founded, has now expressed interest in territorial expansion, by military force if necessary. A scapegoated minority is being consigned to a concentration camp, Constitutional rights are being threatened, and media outlets are being brought to heel.
I can’t quite put my finger on it but this all sounds vaguely familiar.
(*) conflicting reports on the armored Cybertrucks
@DK:
A clown car full of loose cannons pulling a dumpster fire. Same as it ever was. Get Musk to slap some armor on it.
@Rob1: Um…wouldn’t steroids/performance enhancing drugs be gender-affirming care?
@Not the IT Dept.:
Hmmm. In 1939, Russia invaded Poland from the east, and Nazi Germany invaded from the west to divvy up that country. (Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact).
Well, the Hegseth thing might be characterized as “going cowboy” or by “trial balloon”. If it was a balloon, it apparently didn’t fly.
Given that Ukraine aid passed the Senate last year with something like 85 votes, I’m not surprised that it didn’t fly.
Yes, Republican senators are not saying anything negative about Trump to the press. One of the most important rules of politics watching is that what they say is not that important. It’s what they do that matters.
@Jen:
Or perhaps, gender re-affirming care. Sure seems these MAGA type males sure do need lots of “reaffirmation” of their manhood. It’s almost as if they don’t believe in it themselves. Or, they believe too much in it. One of the two.
ICE Director Tom Homan said on Fox last night that he’referring Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to the DOJ for investigation.
About that pursuit of Übermensch –
— The perfect Valentine’s story for our age. Billionaire “hearts” himself.
A little more on the subject:
Jack LaLanne seems kinda quaint now.
@Not the IT Dept.: Will do!
@Jen:
Yes. Absolutely yes. Testosterone supplements are absolutely gender affirming care for cis men. Gynecomastia surgery in cis boys in gender affirming surgery.
Cis people think gender affirming treatment is only for us whacked out Transes. When the reality is that gender affirming care overwhelmingly goes to cis people because there are waaaaay more of you than us.
It’s not called gender affirming care cause cis people are “normal” and get normal care (and incidentally don’t have gender cause they’re just “normal”). The problem comes in when trans people “demand” the wrong kind of gender affirming care.
Deb Haaland is running for Governor of New Mexico. Our current governor is term limited. Haaland is the former Rep from NM-1 and Biden’s Secretary of the Interior.
Based on what I’ve learned about my new home state over the past few months, I fully expect her to win both the primary and the general elections.
@Rob1: You look at the crazy right and see it as different from the crazy left, because “left” and “right”. It’s practically the same thing though, the same issues and even the same people. Two of the most controversial Trump cabinet picks are former Democratic presidential candidates. Anti-vax started on the left. Tim Pool is a former Bernie bro. They weren’t kicked out of the left, they just wandered away and have no loyalty to the right either. The Guardian was fine with the yoga-practicing hippies and they’d welcome them back.
When Outside the Beltway commenters speculate about which cabinet official is a secret Russian asset or white supremacist, they’re engaging in conspiracy thinking. There’s no evidence -> conclusion thinking. The worst thing about Trump is he validated this garbage, and the reachable cranks gave him a majority. This site has a lot of unreachable cranks.
@Fortune: And yet you just can’t quit us. Here you are every day triggered, hate reading, complaining about the commentary — offering shallow takes and influencing no one. Sad.
Trump retweets video of supporter shouting ‘white power’ (BBC)
Ex-Paul Manafort admits he shared Trump campaign info with Russian agent “purely to make money” (Salon)
Tulsi Gabbard’s history with Russia is even more concerning than you think (Yahoo)
This site has immature rightwing trolls who are delusionally stubborn pathological liars.
Unreachable would be an understatement to describe their brainwashed, fact-free fantasyland.Which, of course, is why y’all never have any any credible sources to back up your crybaby sycophancy — and regularly embarrass yourselves getting debunked by those who do. Must be some form of masochism.
It is true, though, that the Buchanan kook to Kucinich kook to Ron Paul kook to Bernie kook to MAGA kook pipeline is as notable as it was predictable. Past Democratic and Republican presidents alike had the good sense to keep these people at arm’s length. And then there’s Trump.
The item from yesterday or the day before that the trucks were ordered by the Biden administration has been repudiated? Comforting.
@Fortune:
Oh, please, spare us this nonsense. Anti-vaxx was never more than the fringiest of the fringe on the left. The right mainstreamed it, and their mainstreaming it killed hundreds of thousands of Americans. There is no equivalence.
@Mikey: But when you’re both a reflexive liar and Someone Who Does Not Support Trump, you have to pretend GranolaMom1974 on Twitter voting for John Kerry is the same as Republicans putting a frog-voiced antivax loon in a powerful cabinet position.
When your desperate attempts to draw equivalence are dumb and dishonest, you gotta try somethin’.
As I said a couple of days ago of this fraud, a puddle is not capable of depth.
The Acting US Attorney for SDNY, Danielle Sassoon, who was hand-picked by Trump’s people, resigned today rather than do the dirty bidding of Trump’s defense attorney (and disgruntled former SDNY AUSA) Emil Bove, by dismissing the case against Eric Adams.
*(I quoted that from Marcy Wheeler).
Several other prosecutors in SDNY have also resigned over the same issue. Here is a letter from one of them.
It gets better.
@Jay L Gischer:
It sure as shit does!
“…I expect you will eventually find someone who is enough of a fool, or enough of a coward, to file your motion. But it was never going to be me.”
Epic.
Fyi, Kevin Drum posted an update yesterday that he is still amongst the living, but yikes…he is experiencing so many health issues hitting him all together that I am still extremely concerned.
Today is a day where lots of folks are sending their love to friends, family, spouses, significant others, etc., so some of that abundance of love in the air today is worth sending over to KD.
I hope folks have a great Holiday weekend!
@Jay L Gischer: @Mikey: I was just reading this on CNN.. It seems to mushrooming as another big shitshow:
Seventh prosecutor in Eric Adams case resigns and calls out Trump’s former lawyer in scathing letter
And this quote:
@Scott: Yeah, that’s the letter I linked.
More developments: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/federal-prosecutor-will-sign-motion-dismiss-adams-charges-bid-save-colleagues-2025-02-14/
The wild card here is that the NY Governor, Kathy Hochul, apparently has a statutory/constitutional right to remove Adams from office. I sincerely hope that she does so, on the grounds that having a mayor who is being blackmailed is, cough, inappropriate.
But it might be that the judge in the case will refuse the dismissal, given what has been made public so far.
@Mikey:
In 1973 they found Robert Bork. You don’t generally have to dig very deep to find a Republican careerist who will do anything. And to this day, GOPs whine that Bork should have been confirmed to SCOTUS.
We’re in the middle of February. Granted Mexico City has a milder climate than what most on this blog are used to, but February has always been a cold month. Maybe the last week gets warm enough that you don’t need to bundle up when going out, but it’s still cool.
Now, courtesy of the Chinese Department of Communist Hoaxes to Make A rapist Look Bad, section after section at the office are turning the AC on. Right now the weather reports are around 20-22 C. That’s mid-late March weather. It’s even warmer than the normal overcast, rainy summer days. In Winter, in the middle of effing February.
That’s one hell of a well executed hoax.
@Fortune:
Whether someone is a white supremacist has nothing to do with “conspiracy thinking.” And the Russian asset thing, well, if you think questioning the loyalties of Gabbard or Trump, based on their actions and words, is somehow equivalent to believing in a cabal of ‘elites’ harvesting children, then, you are incapable of or unwilling to apply reason in your analysis. It’s one thing to err, it’s quite another to connect the dots between independent pages that contain different pictures and think you made art. You’re looking at a Pollack and claiming it’s a portrait.
Tim Pool is a moron. Being a right winger (note: not conservative, right winger) is the political equivalent of basic betch.
The Goop/homeopath/anti-vax crowd are hardly “Left.” Sure, they may claim to live and let live and question Big Pharma, but they turn pretty quickly into NIMBYs when they deem it necessary. Economically, they are mostly center-right to center-left.
Oh, and by the way, all it took was, what, a few months of a health crisis and Trump for RWers to embrace people they previously ridiculed every day of their lives. Not to mention that GOP voters who lazily regurgitated laissez-faire talking points for decades suddenly become skeptical of ‘big business’.
On your left and right ‘analysis’: you have zero credibility. Just this morning, you called, or at least implied, Joyner is a Democrat, and he has been identified by Trump supporters as part of the Left.
See, I can’t pin it down, because you do not say much of anything. And when asked to clarify, you either do not respond, or you change the subject. Whether it is bad faith, poor communication skills, learned intellectual helplessness, or a persecution complex is unclear.
One of the few things you have expressed–that you do not like starting discussions, because you think the fact that it was you affects the ensuing discussion–is the most interesting thing you have contributed here.
Now, I am not as quick to draw conclusions as others are around here. I’ve tried multiple times to get you to show your thought process, and nothing. I try to avoid pop-psych for several independent reasons. But let me remind you of the kerfuffle over your Founders/states rights claim. I took your words at face value, that was wrong. It would be much easier to just assume one of the options listed above, or perhaps, fear that you may be confronted with the fact that you do not have the horses to compete at the intellectual derby.
Probably a bias of mine. But it’s in your favor, yet you act like you’re being attacked by a mean-spirited person. Worse, you expect us to insert meaning to your words, “I kind of understand what the guy meant” and move on.
But it is becoming difficult to read your focus on who rather than how and why as reflective of how you yourself sort information. If true–that it is the only interpretive mode you know–it makes sense that those with more tools in their toolbox would be completely incomprehensible to you.
Just keep hitting it, you can make it fit.
@Fortune: Wow. Your post reads like some kind of “groomer” level stuff, man.
You know: “Hey, we have a lot in common. Come on and sit down here next to me little boy/girl.”
No, there really isn’t any comparison between “left” and the “crazy right” — not in terms of scope, depth, substance or influence. And I gotta tell ya, Fortune, the sheer mounting volume of facts that delineate the actual, bona-fide circumstances of our lives weigh in against the “crazy rightwing” worldview.
@Mister Bluster:
Or as my grandmother used to say when I was a feckless teen
@Fortune: And since you have made an appearance here today, and since you have made an appeal to “engagement,” I’d like to circle back and engage you on something you expressed earlier:
The discussion was on “class war verses culture war” and I specifically mentioned D.E.I issues like “equal pay for women” among other things. I answered your question with a rather detailed answer. And then you retreated behind a series of more questions.
So, now I have some questions for you:
– Do you therefore reject equal pay for women, all other factors being the same?
– Do you support “red-lining” mortgage loans (or any loans) to non-whites and blacks in particular?
– Do you reject the ethnic, religious, gender diversification of the workplace and educational environments in our increasingly diverse population, in favor of restoring traditional policy that favors whites and white males and cis white males?
– Do you support policy that enforces traditional homogeneity, insularity, inequity, and exclusion?
– And if so, how do you square any of this with Jesus? (Or maybe that question is for Connor — posts by you two sometime seem to run together in recollection).
“Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius: Speech not acceptable”
https://www.dw.com/en/pistorius-vance-speech-not-acceptable/video-71616307
It’s like you could hear ppl gasping all over Europe at Vance remarks. I just wonder if alienating allies will make America great again.
See, I see no point to debating with @Fortune Because he thinks he knows more about trans people than I do, or @StormyDragon, or @Beth or @Michael. And so on.
And he is determined to make all of the above miserable, along with family members and the numerous other trans people I know, and their friends and family. Meanwhile, their existence does no harm to him, unless you count, “I feel uncomfortable about this” as harm.
I have news. I felt uncomfortable about it. I expect many other people who have transitioned felt uncomfortable about it. Thing is, if you stay with it, the discomfort fades, and you begin to understand what a courageous and determined act transitioning is. It’s amazing and inspiring.
So no, I’m not going to debate trans issues with @Fortune until he gets his head out of that deep dark place it is stuck in.
Dude, the air is much better over here. My life is affirmatively better with trans people in it than not.
Has anyone here seen Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat?
Some are calling this a dumpster fire. Nope, potentially a huge fire as the seasonal hiring freeze also affects firefighters. But we’ll just open a spigot and all the beautiful water from the Pacific Northwest will flow to put out the fires?
Oregon senators join letter urging Trump admin exempt firefighters from hiring freeze
“A spokesperson for the Forest Service, which is part of the Department of Agriculture, wrote in an email that wildland firefighters fall under the umbrella of public safety positions.” However, that isn’t the word that is getting out into the field where the actual hiring happens.
@Kurtz: You just provided the metaphor for this Administration’s next 4 years.
“German press reports that JD Vance met with AfD co-leader Alice Weidel after his speech in Munich today. He refused to meet Scholz, Germany’s chancellor”
https://x.com/nicolediekmann/status/1890462094190875070
@Min:
Swell. The MAGAs will love this.
Trump has hung a framed enlargement of his mugshot photo just outside the entrance to the Oval Office, where everyone who comes and goes can see it.
He’s also banned the AP from the White House indefinitely.
@Rob1:
I was asking you how you classify things. I don’t think “class war” and “culture war” split so cleanly, and it has nothing to do with my stance on any particular issue within them.
I do support equal pay. I support equality.
What has been called “red-lining” was either applying credit ratings to loans, or discrimination. I oppose discrimination.
I oppose discrimination and any policy that treats people by category. I support equality, not “equity”.
Who knows what you mean by “enforces”? I support legal equality, not unconstitutional and immoral “equity”.
I don’t know of any contradiction.
You sound incredibly different from every other commenter on Outside the Beltway!
@Richard Gardner:
It occurs to me to wonder if Trump looks at maps and thinks all water naturally flows toward the bottom.
On a lighter note…
Quinzy, our recently adopted kitten, is a pint sized cat. The vet said she is a toy size cat. She is almost 6 months old and weighs barely 3 pounds. A perennial kitten to the casual observer. Apparently rare, cuz all the vets on duty came in to check her out. She’s a dark faced tortoise shell with army green eyes, for a visual. Can sit right in the palm of your hand.
Happily, Sadie has discovered the patience of Job and let’s Q crawl all over her like it ain’t no thing. That’s a big relief.
@becca:
I told you Ms. Sadie would come around.
Trump has halted federal funding for any school that requires COVID vaccinations.
I’m puzzled. Didn’t he invent the COVID vax???
Meanwhile, President Trump declares that VAT is equivalent to tariffs.
This is utter insanity.
VAT is not, by any rational reckoning, a tariff.
If Trump expects the EU an the UK to abandon VAT, he’s going to get an uncongenial response.
Not to mention all the other countries around the world that use VAT.
Which is: almost every single one, except the US, Libya, Afghanistan, Burma, Yemen, and Somalia. iirc.
This is just utterly spider-screwing nuts.
@JohnSF:
You didn’t expect differently, did you?
@CSK:
Well, I had vague hopes that the Treasury Secretary might sit him down and explain the basics, but there’s me being Mr Sunshine again.
@JohnSF:
What a list.
@JohnSF:
Even if that did happen, Trump would ignore it. And that’s even if he paid attention for longer than a few seconds. So it couldn’t be in a room with a TV. Even if all the televisions were off, it’s possible he would still stare at them.
Meanwhile in Europe:
Von der Leyen demands trigger of emergency clause to massively boost defense spending
That faint chuff-chuff sound you hear is the European engine coming up to steam.
It will start slowly, but it has the momentum of a continent behind it once it picks up speed.
@Kurtz:
Yeah. But you might have thought someone would tell Trump, and Vance, and Musk, that they are picking fights with the Europeans on points on which they not only will not but cannot give way.
VAT, rules of liability for public speech, etc.
It’s no more acceptable in Europe, than it would be in the US if a European leader stood up in Washington and demanded the repeal of the First Amendment and the abrogation of US tax laws.
It’s just fofadiaf territory.
@Rob1:
You asked questions that he answered. Of course he just stated things without offering anything beyond that.* I guess maybe you will be able to tease more out of him than that. So, I’ll let you continue that engagement on your own.
But I have wondered about a particular question for a long time. I’ve meant to engage Joyner on it, but any time I’ve had the opening from one of his posts, I was catching up days later, so I thought it unlikely I would get a response.
The usual statement is some variant of “equality of opportunity, not equality of outcome.”
Okay, but how does one measure equality of opportunity? My answer: by measuring outcomes. If there is another way to do it, someone, please, feel free to explain how. But I caution anyone game to answer, the key word is measurement.
Beneath the surface theoretical implications of that answer, there swims a vicious monster.
If one decides that the requirements for equality are met, but the only measurement implies otherwise, to my mind, there are two possibilities. Only one of which maintains consistency.
1.) the measurement is flawed, which calls into question whether the conditions of equality are met; or
2.) that underprivileged groups are, by nature, flawed or inferior in some way–ethically, culturally, cognitively.
(I recognize that one or two of those could imply nurture rather than nature, but most of the claims I am aware of that speak to that either end up basing it on nature or employ some form of circular logic.)
*”Equity is immoral.” I find statements like this fascinsting, because I have found that few people who make them fully understand the philosophical implications of a moral claim without explanation.
(Most people, understandably, have not given a single thought about various schools of moral philosophy. Indeed, most do not seem to bother to ask the question of where morals come from at all, outside of begging the question via belief in God.)
Also, most people who make this moral statement either justify ‘Western Civ/capitalism/freedom/liberty/judeo-christian values’ with the same lack of warrant or via consequentialism. Again, either some form of intuitionism or the required circular reasoning.
But what do I know? I don’t argue from intellectualism.
@JohnSF: If Europe actually does follow through with building up its military might after decades of feckless decadence, this will qualify as the #1 achievement of either Trump presidency. Easily so, as he’s so far failed in every other capacity.
Of course, it’s a big if since — per usual — the Germans are already bleating and pushing back on the idea the EU pull together and start punching in its own weight class. Shocker.
JD Vance lecturing Europeans about “the real threat” coming from within is rich stuff, from a sellout dedicated to licking the butt of a felon who incited the Jan. 6 terror attack on Congress.
@Min:
To paraphrase that great tactician Gold Hat,
“Allies? We don’t need no stinking allies!”
@JohnSF: Who is it that could have told Trump, Vance, and Musk the points you’re bringing up to whom Trump, Vance, and Musk would have listened? Yeah, probably a rhetorical question, but I’m still curious.
@DK:
The “feckless decadence” is overstated, quite often.
European NATO spends about $450 bn pa on defence, and (excluding Turkey) have a combined military manpower of 1,648,000.
Has 500+ deliverable nuclear warheads, 8 intercontinental range SSBN, 20 SSN of the first rank. etc etc
The European problem is it has no unitary defence directorate: each country has separate armed forces, separate procurement, different perceptions of defence strategy.
Perhaps, imagine a confederal US, where there were no federal armed forces, and each state ran its own National Guard forces entirely separately, but were allies in wartime.
There was a mooted European Defence Community in the 1950’s, stillborn (though the treaty is still on the books for ratification, iirc)
After the demise of the Soviet Union, the Europeans naturally hoped for a “peace dividend”.
Americans often look at subsequent comparative expenditure and say “why are we paying more?”
Well: multiple carrier battle-groups, Marine expeditionary naval forces, intercontinental bombers, etc etc.
Europe could become a Power again.
But the US might not necessarily like the consequences.
Staring with the withering of US arms sales to Europe, and going on to the consequences of full Power parity.
The US sometimes rather disliked European pursuit of European perceived interests in the past (see Suez, etc).
It might also in the future.
Europe may not be inclined to pay out in the trillions merely to play mini-Me to Washington.
De Gaulle’s argument.
Be careful what you wish for, for you may receive it.
There is already a definite undercurrent to European strategic discourse of “why should we be antagonists of China?”
NSC-68 was quite sensible, from a US perspective.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
Anyone remotely sane in the tech-bro oligarchy? Or the Republican Right think-tankery?
*checks calendar*
Nope, seems like they’re all out out on coke, hookers, champagne, and ket, this weekend.
Try again Monday.
After noon.
This is terrible. I-80 will be shut down right there for….weeks. Months? The tunnel integrity has been compromised.
I’ve always hated that tunnel. It’s long, and the pavement is weirdly grooved.
https://cowboystatedaily.com/2025/02/14/fire-weakened-structure-keeps-emergency-responders-out-of-green-river-tunnel/
@Kurtz:
Or how about the Sisters of Mercy Vision Thing?
Meanwhile in Germany, JDV continues his campaign to win friends and influence people:
Vance refuses to meet Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor; has a cosy chat with AfD co-leader Alice Weidel.
I’m not saying that the German establishment holds grudges, but … oh, wait, I am saying that.
Merz is going to be the next chancellor, and he will be rather pissed off about this.
Vance is clearly rather stupid: he seems to have fully bought into the Musk/MAGA pov of European politics, where AfD and RN and Orban are the “valiant champions of the people”.
One thing he might note; peel back the covers on the AfD and they utterly loathe the US.
French RN are not dissimilar.
The objective of European ultra-nationalists is NOT the ascendancy of America, in any shape or form whatsoever.
@JohnSF:
They view themselves domestically, and America internationally (America, personified by them, and only them, of course) as the moral authority of the world. Or at the very least believe that Europe’s economic success is only enabled by American economic greatness and under the umbrella of American hard power, a shield they get at a discount.
You and I may recognize the obvious inappropriateness of the speech. But to them, they are morally bound to speak ‘truth’ that is, conveniently, determined by them. And it doesn’t hurt that there are some ultra-RW parties that have recently gained political cachet, so it’s not like there are no ideological bedfellows for them.
A snide-toned exploration of this:
Let us stipulate that the following things are expressions of their actual beliefs rather than merely shit they say or imply.
-proud of their Western European heritage (read: whiteness), but hate actual Europeans;
-related, but also distinct: believe that Western Civilization is not only a coherent category, but has demonstrated its cultural and economic superiority as attested by objective evaluation;
-believe ‘Judeo-Christian values’ is Western, ancient, and a coherent category. Yet simultaneously otherize the related religion and most inhabitants from the part of the world that birthed all three faiths.
Maintain a complicated relationship with the Jewish people themselves, religious and secular. Trump, at least, has implicitly asserted the authority to define who counts as Jewish, Musk and Trump cultivate relationships with virulent anti-Semites, and at least dabble in it themselves. While Vance converted to a religion that has a complex relationship (often open hostility and conflict) to Jews. But all fervently defend the State of Israel, at least for now (Gaza Resort may cause some problems and well, let’s be honest about the importance of alliances to these people);
-Yet also believe that they carry the politico-cultural torch lit by Ancient Greece and Rome, despite the well-known facts that those civilizations could hardly be described as adhering to a Judeo/Judeo-Christian moral system, beyond the anachronism wrt to Christianity. Both cultures were far more permissive toward sex, including homo- and bi- sexuality, though there are some taboos and gender roles were shared with modern religions.
Let us not forget that the central figure of Christianity lived in the historical context of foreign occupation by one of the civilizations that they themselves venerate. (Yes, I know there is more detail that would drive the point home.)
—
Of the American Triumvirate, Musk and Trump are clearly alike–they do not have ethics at all. IOW the belief that capital is the foundation required to actualize other moral claims–the definition of Capitalism itself can be adjusted. Meaning, their ethic is basically whatever justifies the accumulation of wealth and power to themselves.
Vance is a curious character in this regard. I tend to agree with Taylor that he is just as cynical as the other two. But I cannot rule out that he is a sincere Catholic of the pre-Second Vatican variety.
@Kurtz:
Your post calls to mind the Heisenberg quote: “We have to remember that what we observe is not nature in itself but nature exposed to our method of questioning.”
Relatedly, I think you would enjoy The Rigor of Angels. If you haven’t already consumed it.
Seems right up your alley.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine: Russian missile strike hits the Chernobyl containment “ark”.
Meanwhile, in Congo: Rwandan backed M23 take Bukavu.
Isn’t it nice to have a competent and focused US administration dealing with such issues?
@Kurtz:
Yes, there seems to be a sort-of consistent,if basically incoherent ideology in play.
US evangelical millenerianism + Catholic “ultra” + Republican “social darwinian” + tech-bro anarcho-capitalitalist + racialist populist all spatch-cocked together.
Their neo-medievalism is perhaps a minor strand, but nonetheless hilarious to anyone who knows much about Medieval Europe.
First, both Thomas Aquinas and St Francis would first be astonished, then appalled, then die laughing.
Second, they’d last about five minutes up against the Hohenstaufen.
If they ever DO achieve dominion, it’d be a very short time before they were all at each others throats.
Place your bets on who wins that.
It always amuses me when they categorise Macron or Merkel as “leftists” when the first is conscious “Republican” of the Enlightenment lineage, and the latter a Christian Democrat, both of which actually have meaning in the European conservative traditions.
Insofar as the American “conservatives” are attempting to be so, they have a basic flaw in that you cannot coherently combine the liberal (in the Lockeian sense) basis of Republicanism with both “judeo-christian” evangelicalism, the anxiety racism and incel/gender agenda ,and tech-bro accelerationist anarcho-capitalism.
Yarvin’s neo-medievalism seems to be an attempt to resolve the contradictions, but is highly unlikely to work.
The collapse may be interesting to obseve.
But perhaps preferably at a trans-Atlantic distance.
Hopefully it can all be calmed down by a couple of years of legal issues, Congress screwing up the legislative agenda (such as it is) and the harsh realism of the markets.
Then come the 2026 elections.
Here’s me, Mr Optimism. 😉
@Mimai:
Ohhh. Thank you. Indeed, that is right up my alley.
I think every other book is about to be kicked to the back of the line.
@JohnSF:
Heh. You cannot threaten me with a good time, my dear.
Ursula von der Leyen, Leader of the Free World has a very nice ring to it as far as this American is concerned.
Way back in what now seems the good old days of November 2016, I posted on Fakebook “America commits suicide.”
Little did I know the once great country would progress to infanticide TL;DR Louisiana will no longer promote vaccinations.
Maybe it’s time to invest in child coffin futures. Isn’t making money by any means what matters now?
@DK: Hegseth has a lot of LCPLs* sitting around the squad bay discussing strategy energy
*yes I know he was a CPL, I stand by my comment
@Fortune:
– No, you seem to typically pose questions not to clarify your beliefs, but to delegitimize the positions that have been presented. Here you have been more direct:
– Good to hear.
– Also good to hear.
– Starts out with a healthy affirmation. But ends somewhat troubling, suggesting “exploitation” and injustice are not of concern.
– I think you know what is meant by enforces. Substitute the words “permits.” And here your position becomes conflicted. You reject inequality and discrimination, yet injustice and exploitation are by-products of both. You characterize equity (justice, non-exploitation of inequalities) as “immoral and unconstitutional,” and yet both our moral code and our legal code provide motive and means to further equity in our society. If you cannot find it in your understanding of the Constitution, then perhaps you can find it in the moral exhortations of Jesus Christ.
– Good. Then perhaps going forward you will be less confused about the difference in “class war” and “culture war,” and find congruence between the aspiration for Diversity, Equity, Inclusion and the moral good outlined by Jesus.
@DK:
I’m both rather sad and worried about it.
By historical standards, the US has been a rather benign, if periodically clumsy and clueless, hegemon.
Europe has not had a stellar record in that department.
Lets hope it does better on the next iteration, if that comes to pass.
More Federation, less Romulan.
But also, Europe is likely to have zero interest in either either Latin America, or Asia or Africa (beyond the ME/NA).
The US has been, above all, a globally interested naval Power.
That’s a gap that wont be easily filled, if Trumpism vacates it.
And an important one.
For a naval policeman, there was the Pax Brittanica from about 1790, the Pax Americana from 1945. If you you look back to what prevailed before the Pax Britannica, it was not pretty.
@JohnSF:
Absolutely correct. European history, with century after century of wars between Christian nations clarifies that the militancy of religious belief is an expression of the quest for power, and in the case of state sanctioned Christianity, has long abandoned the core values of its espoused Godhead. These modern Dominionists exhibit nothing that would suggest a departure from that form.
@Kurtz:
You lost me here. The 3rd possibility is that the assumptions that went into establishing requirements are wrong, in some part (it’s not like we haven’t seen that before).
Look, humans and human behaviors are complex. Measurements of those subjects are approximations that vary in degree of accuracy in describing the thing they attempt to quantify —- a thing that is ever changing longitudinally.
And observer bias is a thing.
But when talk about “big policy” like D.E I., we have to accept that “perfect is the enemy of good” or even adequate. That’s why feedback loop, audits, are good and necessary. The critics of D.E.I-scale policies come to the debate with examples of excess and failure, purposely ignoring the successes. The “outcomes” they are really interested in, are political. The entire strategy of the reactionary right, is to find an example of a failure within a policy or program, and then hype the hell out of it to justify eliminating the entire thing without tweaks or adjustment. But their real objection is that the policy represents a departure from a particular ideological fixation rather than actual deficit or injury.
@Fortune:
OK, so let’s cut to the chase. Do you believe that women, dark-skinned people, and non-heterosexuals currently enjoy equality in fact? Or are they discriminated against, regardless of what the letter of the law might say?
It’s a straightforward yes-or-no question.
@Rob1:
A lot of leftists will slide to the right, particularly the crazy ones. So, there really is a bit of a comparison.
This seems to have stepped up a bit with #metoo, but given how many events we have on any given day compared to a decade ago, I am hesitant to say that it is just leftist misogynists deciding that they care more about misogyny than leftism.
Except for Matt Taibbi. There it clearly is his hatred of women, spiked with a fondness for Russia (where no one cares how poorly you treat prostitutes). The stories that were surfacing about him before he shifted into Musk’s orbit…ugh. Disappointing, as he had been one of the few journalisty people covering class issues and the new guilded age.
@Rob1:
This is a good post.
I can’t respond at the moment other than to say your response doesn’t really change the premise. Your third option fits under my first.
The equality not equity crowd appear to be looking for magic words to solve a problem. When you or I present evidence that magic words are not working, the only place to go for them is #2.
ETA: I include ‘race realists’ in this second category.
@DrDaveT: Yep. That is the “chase to cut to.”
Fortune’s accumulated posts and responses come out as self-contradicting here. But, compartmentalization has long been a trait of the rightwing. They like the notion of “Mom, apple pie, home of the brave” along with the “aura of good” those things confer, but they chaff at the obligations, sacrifice, responsibility that “good” requires.
Same with their take on Christianity. They like the power and rectitude of “the Cross” with which to project their political ideology, but assume none of the humility and mercy at the faith’s core.
@Gustopher: But again this is a matter of depth, breadth, scope, and substance.
The vast scale of the ecosphere of “rightwing crazy” eclipses left extremism by an order of magnitude that shows the latter (left wing extremism) to be the aberrant phenomenon that it is. While on the other hand “rightwing crazy” is now mainstream; it is their primary voice.