Monday’s Forum

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FILED UNDER: Open Forum
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter and/or BlueSky.

Comments

  1. Scott says:

    Update on the Ukraine conflict from the Institute for the Understanding of War.

    • US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff uncritically amplified a number of Russian demands, claims, and justifications regarding the war in Ukraine during an interview on March 21.

    • Vladislav Surkov, a former close adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, recently reiterated a number of longstanding Kremlin claims and ambitions that directly contradict Witkoff’s assertions in an interview with French media aimed at Western audiences.

    • Surkov’s statements are consistent with those made by Putin and senior Russian officials, who have recently and repeatedly stated that Russia intends to bring Ukraine under Russian control and establish suzerainty over neighboring countries in order to weaken the West and strengthen Russia’s global influence.

    • Witkoff uncritically repeated several inaccurate Russian claims regarding the status of the Ukrainian territories that Russia illegally occupies.

    • Witkoff’s statements undermine US President Donald Trump’s stated desired end state for the war in Ukraine that achieves an enduring peace and is in the best interests of the United States, Ukraine, and Europe.

    • Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk and Pokrovsk and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

    • The Kremlin continues to innovate new ways to leverage conscripts to increase the pool of servicemembers eligible for military service in the future.

    Details backing the bullet statements are at the link.

    In addition, some interesting information on the state of the Russian economy:

    Russian inflation has been rising due to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the Russian Central Bank decided in December 2024 to maintain the key interest rate at 21 percent – the highest Russian interest rate since 2003 – as part of efforts to curb growing inflation rates. The Russian Central Bank‘s interest rate through 2025 has remained relatively conservative despite significant and growing inflationary pressures. The Kremlin has claimed in recent months that the inflation rate is about nine to 10 percent, but these figures are likely far below the actual inflation rate, which is likely closer to 20 to 25 percent. Russia’s current interest rate should likely be higher, and the Kremlin likely pressured the Central Bank to keep the rate at 21 percent when the Central Bank should have increased it to curb inflation.

  2. charontwo says:

    This is most likely paywalled, some excerpts:
    John Ganz Unpopular Front

    I thought this comment on the podcast by reader Chris Maisano was particularly helpful and astute:

    Thanks for this conversation, I really appreciated it. Around the 36:00-37:00 minute mark, Prof. DeLong asks how Trump/MAGA seek to fulfill the material interests of their base, and I think a big part of the answer is their immigration policy. I think they have convinced themselves that a radical program of immigration restriction, deportations, and the like is what’s needed to boost the fortunes of native-born white Americans. Housing crisis? Immigrants are moving in en masse and living ten to an apartment, driving up costs. Low wages and bad jobs? Immigrants are coming in and undercutting standards for everyone else. And so on. In that sense, I think MAGA’s fundamentally anti-immigration logic has a similar role and purpose to the Jacksonian drive to exterminate and forcibly resettle indigenous populations – to increase economic opportunities for plebeian whites by expelling the foreign elements supposedly keeping them down. Like the idea of bringing back manufacturing as a source of mass employment through tariffs, it will not work, but I think this accounts for a lot of the motivation behind the program.

    I think this is true and reflects a broader issue: MAGA really believes its own propaganda. And so, they have a conspiratorial notion of their political opposition. They think that if you get rid of USAID, American and “globalist” liberalism will disintegrate. The myth of George Soros pulling the strings is obviously antisemitic, but it’s also instructive here: that’s how they think politics actually works;” billionaires and “elites” are literally paying protesters. They believe there’s no mass or organic opposition to the things they want to do. They take the last election, a closely run thing without a clear majority, to be this great apocalyptic revelation of a “Real America” that finally broke through liberalism’s webs of deceit. At its extremes, this moves towards dehumanization: people who oppose Trump or Musk are kind of not people at all, but “NPCs,” unthinking robots who merely are programmed to care about the “current thing.” Now, on the one hand, this implies a frightening totalitarian logic where the enemy becomes non-human by definition. (It’s also obviously cross-compatible with various kinds of racism.) But on the other, it’s also a severe intellectual and political weakness: an inability to conceive of the agency and the spontaneity of one’s opponents. Adam Serwer famously wrote “the cruelty is the point” during the first Trump administration, but on some level thoughtlessness is the point. It’s much easier to just label and dismiss. Fake news. Of course, A.I. is the great thought-remover: it does all your thinking for you

    And:

    In Dissent, Melinda Cooper has an essay on what she calls the “antisocial state” wrought by Trumpism and neoliberalism before it:

    Project 2025 indulges every fantasy of Trump’s cabinet members, a coterie of private fund investors and business founders with preferential ties to the fossil fuel industry, real estate, and Silicon Valley. The manual shows how the president could open up federal lands to fossil fuel prospectors and actively obstruct any progress on climate change mitigation. It shows how the Federal Reserve could abandon its function as lender of last resort and allow for a return to free banking, with gold or some other commodity equivalent (perhaps cryptocurrency) acting as backstops to privately issued money. And it shows how the Department of Housing and Urban Development could sell off the country’s remaining public housing stock and withhold support from low-income borrowers. Meanwhile, the president is urged to dissolve the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (the independent government agency charged with preventing bank runs) and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (the agency that recently extended anti-fraud regulation to the digital finance sector). Project 2025 represents the apotheosis of the antisocial state: a state form that has withdrawn from the task of social insurance and placed its entire administrative apparatus in the hands of a small group of uber-wealthy business partners.

    In one sense, a state without its social functions is not really the state at all: I’ve written in the past about Trumpism as civil society—understood as the wholly self-interested, competitive capitalist economy—attacking the state.

    5
  3. charontwo says:

    @Scott:

    There was some extended discussion on this at Balloon Juice a couple of days ago, with several links, some of which I posted in Sunday’s Forum, 7th comment from the top.

    Vladislav Surkov, a former close adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, recently reiterated a number of longstanding Kremlin claims and ambitions that directly contradict Witkoff’s assertions in an interview with French media aimed at Western audiences.

    Here is the link to L’Expresse:

    Surkov interview

    1
  4. charontwo says:

    Some Bluesky threads relevant to Surkov, Witkoff etc.:

    Thread

    Thread

    Thread

  5. Beth says:

    Ok, I need some advice and potentially a reality check or two. The situation is this: I left Chicago for London on March 5. The purpose was to find housing and get us started so that when my partner and kids got here we’d at least be a little bit along in the process. I figured it would be hard, but that I at least knew the language, had a bit of an idea of the culture (as opposed to say like France), and that we’d at least have my partner’s well paying job. I’m on a dependent visa while I wait for my citizenship as right goes through. I’m still waiting to hear from my solicitor if me working remotely back in chicago jeopardizes my dependant visa.

    To say that I was overly optimistic is an understatement. I didn’t think it would be easy, but I also wasn’t expecting 3 weeks of absolute crushing failure. I only have a working phone because a friend came over to help and he brought an old iphone with a physical sim slot. I have a functional bank account only because it seems like everything here has gone tap to pay (not expected). I can’t get a phone plan until I get the physical card which may get to the branch tomorrow, maybe. I then have to wait until Friday at the earliest to switch this phone number over to a regular plan. I have to keep this number cause I am actively using it.

    I don’t have a place for us to live and my family gets here on April 3, but my elderly cat gets here before then. The biggest unexpected culture/reality shock has been the sizes and types of properties available. We have a small house in Chicago, but small there is still 3000 sq ft. We’re going to be going down to about 900-1000. What I’m starting to suspect, and I’d like some thoughts on, is that beyond just the physical size issue, this will impose a massive lifestyle change.

    Because I was closeted and in hiding most of my life, I never lived in an apartment and thus have zero frame of reference for that. The one small frame of reference I have is a couple of apartments my partner “lived in” in Chicago. Those were both massive compared to here. What I am now starting to realize is that I was able to become myself was in Chicago I had the space to do so. I had my own office, I had my own bathroom. I could spread out and acquire the things I could use to become myself and heal some of my traumatic life. I was able to get clothes and make up and whatnot. I was also able to be loud in ways that I simply can’t under most circumstances here. I was able to set up my xbox on the family tv while also having a second tv so that my son could have his own xbox. I knew that it was a life of privilege and wealth that most people don’t get. But look, after my nightmare life I felt like I had earned it in so many different ways.

    Yesterday I told my partner to put almost all of the stuff I was planning on shipping here into storage. All of my pretty rave clothes. Most of my pretty dresses. Most of my makeup. I think I need to tell her to store all the rest. Store the Xbox. Store it all. Every thing I bring over for myself will take away space from the family and my kids.

    I don’t see how we make any of this work until I stuff as much of me back into the box it came in. She reminded me this weekend that for the foreseeable future I’m an economic boat anchor. She didn’t phrase it like that, but that’s the reality. Provided that I can work remotely without screwing up my visa, I have about enough work to take out some debts of mine that I can’t not pay (it would destroy an important relationship that would never recover) and that’s about it. Best case scenario I’ll be able to get what amounts to beer money from a couple of long-term clients. Even when I can work here, I don’t know if I can put myself through what it will take to get licensed as an attorney here. I think I now understand why someone would be a dr in say India and then become a cab driver in the states.

    That also means that every cent that I’d use to do the things that bring me enjoyment, going to raves and clubs and parties, is a cent that I take from my family without being able to return. I can do all the non-economic housework which is vital, but it’s also non-economic.

    I’m starting to think that the only way we can make this single income stuff work is if I fully give into the tradwife nightmare. I think I need to tell her to store all of my stuff, including my Xbox. I think I need to go through my clothes here and get rid of a 3rd to 1/2. Then I have to shove myself back into the closet and lie like hell about it. I got one brief shining moment to be myself and now that’s gone.

    And Daddy Reynolds, when you read this, understand that I would be insanely jealous. But jealousy and the rage I feel towards the people that voted for Trump are luxurious emotions that I simply can’t feel because they illuminate just what I’ve lost.

    So yeah, if anyone has any thoughts or suggestions or advice, please. And like, I need hard ass mercenary type shit. Platitudes aren’t going to help me get through the next six months.

    4
  6. charontwo says:

    @Scott:

    Last night Silverman posted a link to Witkoff interview transcript:

    Balloon Juice

    Last night I highlighted “Special” Envoy Witkoff’s interview with Tucker Carlson. The transcript has now been published and a read through of that shows his remarks were even worse than the initial clips indicated.

    https://bsky.app/profile/shashj.bsky.social/post/3lkznilzyg22c

    Witkoff

  7. Beth says:

    @Scott:
    @charontwo:

    The Witkoff stuff, the Mar-A-Lago stuff, and a couple other things has really made me realize that they all absolutely believe their own bullshit. It’s not just Trump that’s some sort of deluded half-wit, it’s all of them. They are all fanatics that have decided on a TRUTH and the TRUTH is unshakable and infallible. Beyond that it’s people like my in-laws that still don’t believe that we are moving to London and even if we do we’re idiots. They steadfastly refuse to believe that their daughter has any agency (or worth). They are of course Republicans because Republicans are good for the economy and moral and right.

    This fanaticism is a great strength. But it’s also brittle and when it shatters it’s gonna shatter bad. I give them until summer before they fuck something up real bad.

    It’s also why even in light of what I wrote above, that I know we are doing the absolute right thing by getting out now.

    3
  8. Scott says:

    @charontwo: Thanks. I always read Adam’s take on Ukraine (and Georgia). I also go to ISW for diversity of info and opinion. Sad to say, the least valid source always seems to be our own government.

  9. Scott says:

    Greenland’s prime minister slams ‘highly aggressive’ visit by US officials, including second lady Usha Vance

    Greenland’s prime minister said a planned visit to the island by US officials, including second lady Usha Vance, is “highly aggressive,” plunging relations to a new low after President Donald Trump vowed to annex the autonomous Danish territory.

    Vance, the wife of US Vice President JD Vance, will travel to Greenland this week to watch the island’s national dogsled race and “celebrate Greenlandic culture and unity,” according to a statement from the White House. National security adviser Mike Waltz is also expected to visit the territory this week, according to a source familiar with the trip.

    Greenland Prime Minister Mute B. Egede called the US delegation’s trip to the island “highly aggressive” in an interview with Greenlandic newspaper Sermitsiaq on Sunday, and raised particular objection to Waltz’s visit.

    Why are they just complaining? Why not just deny entry? On top of that, why don’t they threaten the closure of Thule (now Pituffik) Space Base? Play a little hardball.

    4
  10. Gavin says:

    I find it fun to watch the steam rising from the ears of the MAGA when it’s calmly explained that 9 of the last 10 US recessions started under a Republican president.
    Republicans are only better for the economy if you’ve got a couple spare billion dollars in your couch cushions and are looking to buy leveraged assets on the cheap.
    This is why business leaders are already waiting for Trump to leave to “actually” do business. When you’re Republican and you’ve lost the American Enterprise Institute…

    4
  11. wr says:

    @Beth: I hope you don’t take this as a platitude… if it doesn’t help, I won’t be hurt if you simply ignore it.

    But fifteen years ago my wife and I lived in a 4,000 square foot house in Pasadena, and it was crammed with stuff. We decided to change our lifestyle and moved to an 1800 square foot house in the desert outside of Palm Springs. We thought it would be impossible to live without all our stuff… but I can’t think of a single thing we ever missed.

    Three years later we moved to Manhattan, where our apartments have been roughly 1100 and 900 square feet. Again, we got rid of stuff… and missed nothing.

    Now I’ll admit it was easier for me, as the stuff I tend to acquire — books, music, movies — are easily available in non-physical modes, and I find I really prefer that, despite all the trade-offs.

    But my wife, who has worked in housewares for most of her adult life, just loves dishes and glasses and all sorts of decorative items. And yet she managed to keep the things she really loved and sold off the rest and never looked back.

    Don’t get me wrong — it is a change. But if you can let go of stuff, I don’t think it’s a change that should force you back into any closet. You are not the space you live in — you are you.

    And yes, the apartments are small in London. But that just means — as my cousin explained after living there for several years on a job — you have to redefine how you think of your life a little. In the States, you live in your home and sometimes you go out in the world. In much of Europe, you live out in the world, and then come to your home to sleep.

    I know everything looks bleak — and it can’t help that you’re there on your own as the advance scout. But you will find a way to make this work.

    7
  12. Beth says:

    @Scott:

    I would think the Danes would take this seriously and do what the Greenlanders want. Seems to me like this is a good way to provoke their own civil war (Denmark/Greenland) so that the U.S. can jump in and claim to be liberators.

    See what I mean about being fanatics.

    1
  13. Jen says:

    @Beth: London is one of the most expensive cities in the world to live in, so I’m not surprised that the digs are small.

    @wr: is correct–European housing requires a mental shift. Smaller homes, but more stuff to do and it’s easier to get around without a car. When we lived in Germany we had one car, there was no way we could do that in the US. If you need space, you’ll need to look outside the city. If you need the city, you’ll need to give up on space.

    Just my .02, but I think you really need to talk to someone official about the work rules and how that will play with your visa. I was under the impression that different visa classifications carry different work restrictions, and some of them prohibit ANY work, including working remotely.

    Most of all, hang in there.

    5
  14. Beth says:

    @wr:

    I don’t think this is a platitude at all. This is actionable knowledge. Please don’t take any of what I say next as aggressive or just trying to fight. I’m in crisis and amped up, I’m not trying to fight for fightings sake. I can do that some other time.

    You are right, we are not our stuff or the space we live in. Had we not had to flee I was was working on reducing extraneous stuff and debt to get off the American credit card scam casino. And like, I have two items from my grandparents: a giant stupid painting from my great-grandmother and my grandpa’s old busted lazyboy that I swore for years I’d get refinished but didn’t. It hurt, but I could put the painting into storage and pitch the lazyboy, that sucked, but I could do it.

    But then it starts to get harder. I’m with you, I don’t mind switching to a lot of non-physical media. Even with the threat that our rich bastard overlords can reach out and take it away from us, it’s still easier to lug it around. I also understand having the ability to have two tvs in a household with two separate xboxes is an absurd luxury. But moving here, it’s not like we’re going to have the space to get my son a tv and have family tv. I love playing video games. I get a great amount of enjoyment from it and it’s a part of me.

    But I think I have to give that up. Because at the end of the day I either have to give up part of me, or take another thing away from my son. That’s basically the choice right? Or am I missing something? And it’s not really the xbox itself that hurts to give up, it’s that I have to give up something I love doing. That’s an important part of me.

    Then with the clothes and make up. Like, yeah, I don’t really need six very similar make up palettes or a ton of clothes. Especially a bunch of impractical rave outfits. or 10 different dresses with 5 I rarely wear because they’re formal. But as someone who was forced to wear men’s clothes for the majority of my life, these are an extension of me. They are the joyful defiance of all the awful shit other people did to me and I did to myself to survive. But you are objectively right, it’s just stuff and I don’t have space.

    Like, I keep thinking about my wedding where I got to marry an amazing human and she looked so beautiful in her gorgeous dress. I can’t even look at those pictures cause I see myself in that awful suit and I will never get the chance to fix that now. Hell, I won’t even get the chance to fix this awful fucking masculine wedding ring because there’s no money now. I can pare down the clothes and makeup because they are just clothes and make up. But they are also how I show joy and defiance in a world that hates people like me and finds us repulsive. But I am large and every bit of clothing I have takes up twice as much space as my partner’s. We are going to step down from two whole separate closets down to one tiny one.

    I had hope that I could fix the wedding issue. I let my partner and our therapist talk me into having hope that we could change that. I would never get back what I lost 20 years ago, but I could get close. But hope is wild and overwhelming and beautiful, but when it dies it turns into bitterness. I am very bitter that I will never ever get the wedding I wanted or something close and I am bitter that I was talked into having hope to change that. If I don’t start shoving myself back into the closet and into survival mode, I’m gonna get real bitter. A little bitterness is manageable. Like a benign cancer, but a lot of it is an aggressive tumor that will destroy you and everyone around you. I know what it did to my parents and I can’t let that happen to my kids.

    And she’s right, I’m not bringing in any money and every Pound I spend going out, which is something I love doing. I’m a party girl. But that takes money and I won’t have any.

    As someone who didn’t get to experience what it was like to actually be themself, it’s intoxicating to get to be who you are. Having a little bit of yourself doesn’t cut it.

    I told a friend before I left that I didn’t want to begin again again again. I finally got to experience who I am, but I think that beginning again this time means going back to a version that’s smaller, takes up less space, and is more in survival mode. Otherwise the hope is going to kill me.

    1
  15. Jax says:

    @Beth: Is London a necessity? Are there cheaper cities?

    1
  16. Beth says:

    @Jen:

    I was under the impression that different visa classifications carry different work restrictions, and some of them prohibit ANY work, including working remotely.

    Yeah, it won’t matter in like 4 months, but if I can’t work for 4 months that will basically kill my work. I wish my solicitor would get back to me with a straight answer.

  17. wr says:

    @Beth: Hi Beth — I really do understand what you’re saying. And obviously I don’t really know you at all, except through what you post here. But the one thing that has always shown through in everything I’ve read is that you really seem to know exactly who you are — quite possibly because you weren’t allowed to be her for so much of your life.

    So I am confident — and I know it’s really easy for me to say — that while the adjustment may be difficult, you will find a way to be who you need to be. The things you are worrying about are obstacles, but when I try to understand the obstacles you’ve already blasted through, my money is on you.

    8
  18. Beth says:

    @Jax:

    It’s a necessity now since my partner will have to go into the office. We’re also both city people. It might change once I get my citizenship sorted, but until then we’re here.

    Beth

    1
  19. charontwo says:

    @Scott:

    I have been paying much less attention to Ukraine now than I had been, it has been so discouraging to read, plus I am pretty overwhelmed with all the other blogs, substacks etc. I have been tracking. (The oval office attention seeker and his minions keep demanding attention).

    I have a vague recollection that maybe Silverman is a bit skeptical of ISW, but I have come to the view that Silverman’s hot takes are not necessarily all that reliable either.

    1
  20. Michael Reynolds says:

    @Beth:
    First, everything @wr said.

    I come at this relo thing from a very different place. I’ve lived in – paid rent (or lived with parents), had an address – in 14 states, well over 50 different residences. Katherine and I have tried just to put all our married life into some sequence and can’t do it. (Was Ocean City 2 after or before Florida 3? Why were we in Johnson City, Tennessee? And, which was the place that smelled like pee?) And I also lived overseas, two cities and three homes in France as a kid, a house in the Azores, a house in Florence with Katherine. In 2008 we moved two young kids, a Labrador retriever, a Pug, a cat and a Toyota RAV to Italy.

    Recently we moved from a 2000 sq foot house with big yard and pool in LA, to a 2000 sq ft. condo in Vegas, and we (fingers crossed) will be moving into a 1000 sq. ft. apartment in London in June. It’ll be tight, but as @wr points out, it’ll be less about inside the apartment and more about outside, in London, the greatest city on earth!

    Some of what you’ll need to do, out of necessity, is rethink your attitude toward stuff. You have yourself, your wife and your cat. Imagine your house burned down. You escaped with nothing but yourself, your wife and your cat. Hardcore, gun to your head, is there really anything else that matters one percent as much as life, limb, wife, cat?

    You’re not an expat, you’re a refugee. A refugee with life, limb, wife, cat, one healthy income and potentially more. So another mental adjustment goes like this: shut the fuck up, London ain’t Gaza. What it is though is a city full of brown and black people most of whom rolled into town with a fraction of what you have going on.

    So, 1) Get over stuff. 2) Recognize your privilege and your power.

    As for re-closeting, first of all, good luck finding a flat with a closet. Two hands: on the one hand, you are you, you are not your stuff, or your appearance, you are a wad of pink goo inside in a shell of bone, riding around atop a body. And on the other hand, a major relo is an opportunity to re-examine how you present yourself in the world. You’re not being shoved into a closet, you’re giving yourself a make-over. Opportunity not oppression. You want to flame? Flame on. You want to present as trad wife? Sure, if that works. But you are the one in control. And whatever you decide, you remain the same wad of pink goo.

    Trust me on this because I was the new kid every year in school and each time it was an opportunity to escape the old and create the new. Not loss, opportunity. Feeling loss makes you weak and that’s the way to spiral. Opportunity makes you excited and that’s the way to adapt.

    On a purely practical note: just because you’re on a limiting visa doesn’t mean you can’t look at other visas. They have different sorts. And you’re a lawyer, FFS, start lawyering. In the meantime, set up a US corp, work remote and direct all your US (remote) income to the corp. So ‘you’ haven’t earned anything, a corporation has. If/when you get a broader visa you can pay yourself. And in the meantime there are things you can pay stateside out of your corp.

    As for raving, you’re on your own. I’d rather stick an icepick in my ear.

    8
  21. just nutha says:

    @Gavin:

    “The president’s not going to be around forever,” they said. “In four years, you have a different administration.”

    [channeling the custodian from The Breakfast Club] “I wouldn’t count on that.” Check back with me in 2027 when we see what Congress looks like.

    3
  22. gVOR10 says:

    @charontwo:

    MAGA really believes its own propaganda

    The Ganz link works fine for non-subscribers.

    @Beth:

    The Witkoff stuff, the Mar-A-Lago stuff, and a couple other things has really made me realize that they all absolutely believe their own bullshit.

    Coincidentally, Dan Drezner has a Substack on “pluralistic ignorance”, the failure of a majority to realize they are the majority. The flip side is the minority believing they are the majority. Everybody they know voted for Trump, or at least won’t say otherwise in front of them.

    The 2024 election doesn’t bother me (other than the horrid consequences). It’s a Black Swan. Given the close split of the electorate, once Biden had his debate and was forced out with three months left the rest followed. What bothers me is that over decades Dems have allowed GOPs, who have nothing to offer the average voter, to get even close.

    It also bothers me that so much of the media declared a vibe shift over a few percent change in the vote in odd circumstances. Kinda shows where their heads were at all along.

    4
  23. Modulo Myself says:

    @Beth:

    I’ve lived with fashion designers and artists in tiny NYC-sized apartments, and it can get a bit crazy, but for clothing might just want to treat a small section of your apartment like a studio space. Forget the idea of closets and just put stuff out in the open, and then try to keep the chaos under control.

    Back in the day, I had a roommate who was a designer. He had a commission to do a dress for some Dolly Parton-themed revue, and I spent a few months watching television next to a mannequin built to her proportions, along with mock-ups of dresses and bins filled with whatever. You get used to most things, although there’s a reason most artists desperately crave having studio space to make a mess and not alienate everyone they live around.

    2
  24. Bill Jempty says:

    Right after Dear Wife and I got back from India, we both applied* for Social Security. SSA did not have a record of DW becoming a naturalized citizen, so she was told to bring in her naturalization certificate to the Boca Raton SSA office.

    It was a painless experience greatly helped by DW having an appointment. We arrived around 845 and out of there by 915. Her appointment was 910 and we were the sixth person called.

    Why get SS when my book business is doing so well? Because we paid into the system and in before 2026 is over, we’ll both be eligible for medicare. At the moment we have our own health insurance since DW quit working on Jan 1.

    We support DW’s family in Tacloban and are about to put another niece through nursing school. The house in Tacloban, which survived Super Typhoon Yolanda, should probably be torn down and a new house built in its place. All of this costs money.

    DW also wants to enjoy life while our health is still moderately good or stable. We’re taking an Alaskan cruise in May, probably going to Rome in the fall, and trips to the Philippines and Japan are highly likely for next year. Like MR, I like business class travel and good hotels.

    Since DW stopped working, she has taken a far greater interest in our finances. I still write because I enjoy doing it not because I need more book income.

    Leeanne completed work on my Yakuza book. It should hit the bookstores late this year. It is the best thing I’ve written. Not the silly drivel that best describes most of what I’ve written even if that silly drivel has made me lots of money.

    5
  25. Michael Reynolds says:

    @Modulo Myself:
    My wife and I spent a summer in a SRO in Ocean City, literally the size of a cell. Tiny sink in the corner, tiny B&W TV, single bed, bathroom down the hall. No kitchen, closet, couch, chair or anything else.

    For breakfast I’d walk down to the boardwalk and bring home fried egg sandwiches. One of the best, most memorable times we had.

    3
  26. Mister Bluster says:

    @Bill Jempty:..painless experience

    I enjoyed the same support from the Social Security staff at the local office (4.5 miles from my home) in 2012 when I signed up. Didn’t need an appointment. Just walked in and it was a 5 minute wait.
    I can only hope that this convenient service continues for all.
    (You could say I’m a dreamer…)

    4
  27. Jay L Gischer says:

    @Beth: First, I too agree with both @wr and Michael

    I lived in a house here in Silicon Valley that was 1600 sq ft for 26 years. I had two kids. We had one TV with one video game console. (Super NES, N64, GameCube, yes we are Nintendo partisans).

    One of my cherished memories now is sitting on the couch, or on the floor in front of the couch playing video games with my kids. We were highly competitive at Mario Kart, I got completely owned in Super Smash Brothers. Not to bad at the pvp version of Goldeneye or Perfect Dark.
    Sometimes I would play and they would watch, or they would play and I would watch. I treasure those memories so much. Sometimes my wife would play too, especially Double Dash. That was super fun.

    This isn’t a command, it’s a suggestion. Something to think about. What you are doing is tough, but you’ve done tougher things in your life already.

    1
  28. Modulo Myself says:

    @Michael Reynolds:

    I’m a huge fan of Ocean City, NJ, the dry town where there’s a big liquor store right before the bridge you take to get in. It’s a nice quaint place.

    I spent senior week after high school in the other one, in Maryland. Great time to be drunk and dumb, and I knew some people who spent summers working at restaurants there. You could probably do pretty well in the summer if you didn’t spend the money partying.

    1
  29. Michael Reynolds says:

    @Modulo Myself:
    I was in OC Maryland, waiting tables, (head waiter) mostly at a place called The White Marlin (gone now) on the bay next to Marina Deck restaurant. I did two summers there and a winter-over at a place called The Wild Goose Chase. Also managed a couple of different shabby properties.

    I have a love/hate thing with OC. Some of the most perilous times in our lives, but also kinda fun.

    1
  30. Dutchgirl says:

    @Beth: I’ve moved back and forth from from NL to USA 3.5 times, twice as a child, once as a adult. Its hard, and harder to describe exactly why. But here are some observations (the you is generalized):
    1. You don’t know what you don’t know. You know what gave you identity and community in your old setting, but you don’t know where to look for those things in the new setting. You don’t know what will fill in the gaps created by the things you left behind, whether its people, things, activities, or places. And it can take longer than expected to discover the new things.
    2. In European cities where housing is historically small, pub culture exists as an additional living space. Other places can also serve this purpose, internet cafes are still a thing because of this. Look for your places: a park, a pub, a museum
    3. culture shock is real, disorienting, and can be worse than you ever expected. Find people who share this experience, online or irl. Others have gone through this before, and have some insights.
    There’s more, but I’m off to tai chi, and hopefully find a little balance myself after dreadful sleep.

    6
  31. gVOR10 says:

    Via Balloon Juice, Paul Krugman has some wisdom for Democrats.

    But I can’t help noticing that the inverse correlation between how Americans voted in 2024 and their real interests makes it clear that two of the main factions in the intra-party debate about Democrats’ next moves are talking nonsense.

    On one side there are relatively conservative Democrats and Democratic-leaning pundits telling us that the party must move to the center. But when it comes to Social Security, which is really important to most Americans, Democrats — who want to preserve the program — are very much in the center, while Republicans — who want to kill it — are extremists. Yet last November, the voters who have most to lose from this extremism didn’t notice.

    On the other side there are progressives who argue that Democrats are in trouble because they abandoned the working class. But even if you think that Democrats have been too friendly toward globalization, or deregulation, or low corporate taxes, the Democratic Party has been far more favorable to workers than the Republicans. The Biden administration was especially pro-worker. But working-class voters didn’t notice.

    What all this says is that the priority for Democrats isn’t to pursue whatever you think is a better policy mix. It is to get voters to notice.
    This almost certainly requires new leadership, if only to help persuade voters that the party isn’t run by tired careerists.
    (Emphasis in original.)

    To which I’ll add something from NYT via LGM I intended to post when the site went down,

    Mr. Beshear drew a distinction with Mr. Newsom on that issue, as well. In 2022, Mr. Beshear vetoed legislation that would have let student athletes play only in sports based on the sex listed on their birth certificate. His veto was overridden.

    “I think that sports need to be fair, but I believe that our different leagues have more than the ability to make that happen,” Mr. Beshear said on Thursday, adding that the Kentucky high school athletic association had its own rules to prevent any “unfair advantage.”

    “But our Legislature decided they needed to pass something anyways,” he added. “And you know what they did? They took away an opportunity for the only trans athlete we had in our state, who’s a middle schooler, who started a field hockey team at her school that had never had one to make friends.

    That’s the way you do it: Don’t throw our friends under the bus. Don’t amplify the the GOP’s BS about trivia, ridicule it.

    9
  32. just nutha says:

    @Bill Jempty: Travel when and while you can. My parents had two or three trips they were planning to take, but “never found the right time to go on…”

    And then my father was diagnosed with Alzheimer’s and went into memory care.

  33. CSK says:
  34. Mister Bluster says:

    Two Inflation Updates
    In the interest of fairness and accuracy I need to post a correction.
    Just before OTB was unavailable I commented on the cost of the Panera Sausage Egg and Cheese on Cibatta Breakfast Sandwich. I stated that the price had increased by 50¢ to $6.99. Turns out that there is no price increase to any Panera breakfast sandwich that includes egg. What happened was that the cashier mistakenly entered the sandwich order on an Asiago Bagel instead of Cibatta. When I went to pick up my order I did not ask them to remake it on Cibbata as they offered to do. The 50¢ increase on my bill that I was charged was due to the sandwich made with Asiago Bagel. Apparently they always cost $6.99. I discovered this the next time that I ordered the sandwich on Cibbata and was charged $6.49.
    Apologies to Panera.

    Yikes! The Devil is in the details!
    Kroger sells three Reser’s products that I buy. My first choice is the Red Skin Potato Salad that has been priced at $4.99/lb. Occasionally going on sale for a 50¢ and sometimes a $1.00 discount.
    The other two items, which are my second and third choices if the Red Skin Potato Salad is not available, Deviled Egg Potato Salad and Deviled Egg Macaroni Salad have been priced the same as the Red Skin Potato Salad for the same 1 lb. container…until now.
    Both the internet ad and the shelf price ticket list the two products with Deviled Egg at $7.49/lb.. That’s a whopping 50% increase if my arithmetic is correct! The Red Skin Potato Salad remains $4.99/lb.

    1
  35. gVOR10 says:

    Paul Campos at LGM quotes a historian on the evolution of American Universities.

    The basic legal structure of the American academy is an accident that emerges out of circumstances specific to the colonial era, most notably the absence of an established body of scholars who might undertake the work of institutional governance, as was true at Cambridge and Oxford. That absence enabled local elites, chiefly clerical and political, to maintain control over America’s earliest colleges; and it is the legacy of this structure that we now find depicted in the hierarchical organization charts of U.S. institutions of higher education.

    Campos adds,

    He argues that claims about the “corporatization” of the American university are somewhat naive, in that the American university from its inception has always been a corporation, and an autocratic one at that. As a legal matter, pious calls for “shared governance” by organizations such as the AAUP run into the problem that faculty have exactly zero ultimate formal power in these institutions, which are always run by some form of autocratic committee, whose members usually have no experience in academia beyond having once been college students.

    So the eagerness of Columbia’s board to surrender to Trump shouldn’t be a surprise.

    1
  36. Kathy says:

    Is the Home Shopping Network still around? They could sponsor all of the felon’s so called administration’s press conferences.

    I’d call this tacky, but it seems an insult to the term.

  37. Beth says:

    This is straight fucking fire:

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/men-crisis-trump-masculinity.html

    The answer to male pain isn’t masculinity, but a new political order, where no man or woman is an automaton or object. As analysts like Reeves have argued, it is possible to champion men and boys without sacrificing women and girls to the right-wing. Yet some liberals would rather appease violent masculinity than defeat it.

    Absent from so much contemporary discourse about the crisis of men, and from centuries-old defenses of traditional masculinity, is the labor and purpose of women.

    Salvation does not lie in the hustle or in heroism, but in the hard and unglamorous work of keeping society together.

    5
  38. Liberal Capitalist says:

    Hi folks,

    (Pulls out his soapbox, stands upon it)

    This is a boring web-access-housekeeping question:

    As Yahoo RSS bit the dust, I now use Protopage as my RSS news aggregator. And whatever the kerfuffle that upset OTB 11 days ago seems to have disrupted your RSS feed as well.

    Are you aware that some folks follow OTB via RSS? Do you care?

    Just saying, that part seems kind of broke still.

    Thank you.

    (steps off soapbox, goes back to doomscrolling)

    1
  39. Beth says:

    Here we go, one Democrat putting out the good word. I wish he would tell Durban to resign

    https://www.readtpa.com/p/watch-illinois-governor-jb-pritzker

    The question I get asked most right now is, “So what can I do? What can I do?” And I’m going to be blunt about this. Never before in my life have I called for mass activism, but this is the moment. Take to the streets, protest, show up at town halls. Jam the phone lines in Congress, 202-224-3121, and afford not a moment of peace to any elected representatives who are aiding and abetting Musk and Trump’s illegal power grab. This is not a drill, folks. This is the real thing.

    This is how you do it.

    3
  40. dazedandconfused says:

    Humorous. Protesters at a Tesla dealership attacked by MAGAt with a taser. Grandma does the take-down.

    1
  41. Gustopher says:

    @Beth:

    But I am large and every bit of clothing I have takes up twice as much space as my partner’s. We are going to step down from two whole separate closets down to one tiny one.

    Once while I was looking at apartments I remarked “I’m a large man, with large appetites. I need a lot of space.”

    Im a bit of a pack rat or collector or hoarder. For me it is Transformers, banjos, art supplies, while for you it appears to be trans accessories. Separating from that a bit is difficult.

    This is going to be hard. Plain and simple, just hard. Will you come through it as a better person who has learned an important lesson on what matters most? No, it will just be hard. (I mean, maybe, but I wouldn’t count on it).

    I had hope that I could fix the wedding issue. I let my partner and our therapist talk me into having hope that we could change that. I would never get back what I lost 20 years ago, but I could get close. But hope is wild and overwhelming and beautiful, but when it dies it turns into bitterness. I am very bitter that I will never ever get the wedding I wanted or something close and I am bitter that I was talked into having hope to change that.

    I’m just going to suggest something here, pretty flippantly, even though you might not want suggestions from anyone who can’t maintain a relationship of his own…

    Get married again. Little wedding in a park. Or a pub if it starts to rain. In a rented dress if need be. Given away by your elderly cat. When your family arrives, just do it.

    You’re putting a lot onto this dream, and it’s never going to be perfect, so just do it. And in a few years, when things are going better and you can have the big fancy wedding a bit closer to your dreams… do it again.

    It can be your thing — every five years another wedding.

    It sounds like hell to me, but it’s clearly something you put a lot of value on right now, so just do it, best you can, give or take now.

    If I don’t start shoving myself back into the closet and into survival mode, I’m gonna get real bitter. A little bitterness is manageable. Like a benign cancer, but a lot of it is an aggressive tumor that will destroy you and everyone around you. I know what it did to my parents and I can’t let that happen to my kids.

    I don’t see why cutting back on spending means going back into the closet. I’m sure between hormones, makeup, transgender union dues, and all that, that there is some expense.

    And I really don’t get why you think you’ll get bitter if you don’t shove yourself back into the closet and go into survival mode. I don’t see the connection between survival mode and the closet, and I don’t see how going into the closet would not make you intensely bitter.

    If you’re tying your identity as a trans woman — or just a woman in general — to being able to go to expensive raves (are they expensive?) and shopping sprees and what not, then you’re tying money to identity and setting the stakes of inevitable money issues to your very being, and that seems like an amazingly bad idea. Any argument over money would become an argument over identity.

    Maybe you’ll be a poor woman for a while. That’s… probably not awesome, to be honest, but way better than a closet.

    4
  42. Beth says:

    Ok so, it’s midnight here and I’m crying in between laughing at the idiots in the government. I need to go to bed, but I need to do this first.

    So, thank you for helping with my freak out this morning. I really appreciate it.

    I couldn’t figure something out though. I felt like I wasn’t explaining well why I was so upset about all of this. I asked Stormy is I was just being whiney.

    They helped me realize that while compared to cis people, transitioning is fucking hell. It’s hard and brutal and awful. It’s so worth it, but it’s hard in ways that cis people can’t get. But compared to most trans women, my transition was a fucking breeze. I didn’t lose my job. In fact I made way more money after I came out and transitioned. I didn’t lose any family cause they were gone already. I didn’t lose my spouse or access to my kids. I wasn’t forced into sex work. I got over half a million dollars worth of surgery for nothing and I had excellent support through out.

    For a while I was a funder of my local trans group and always made sure to quietly give to the women that were reduced to begging on discord. I knew I had it good and I tried to do good.

    But Daddy Reynolds came closest to the truth. I’ve basically run out of privilege. In this place, in this situation, I’m just another broke struggling trans girl one misstep from losing everything.

    Which made me realize something worse. I’ve basically followed in the footsteps of all the women in my family and become wholly economically dependent on my spouse. I watched my mom and grandmother be beholden to mercurial nightmares and what it did to them.

    My partner got a view of this too. Her dad wasn’t a nightmare like mine was, but he controlled what the family did. Got a new job, time to up root and go. Maybe there’s some discussions on the margins, but he was in control.

    I think even if I wanted to get a job here and could, I don’t think I can bring in enough money to cover the expense of childcare or the noneconomic work that has to get done here. Plus, if I want to have any hope of maintaining my client relationships I have to continue my remote work. I checked my receivables. I have barely enough to cover about half of critical debt that has to be paid to maintain certain relationships. I estimate I have enough upcoming work to take care of the other half. Then who knows.

    I have an awesome spouse. I don’t think she would, but she absolutely could take everything from me right now and there is almost nothing I could do to stop it.

    So, yes Mr. Grant, I am a refugee and in the same exact position many refugee women find themselves in and I am terrified.

    3
  43. Mister Bluster says:

    Louis DeJoy will be getting his mail forwarded.

    DeJoy stepping down as USPS postmaster general immediately
    “While we’re glad to see DeJoy go, the fear is that his mismanagement will continue casting a destructive shadow,” Kevin Yoder, a former Republican congressman and executive director of the advocacy group Keep US Posted, told Axios.
    “The time is now to stop following DeJoy’s leadership, and that means abandoning strategies like rate hikes and service delays which hurt businesses and everyday Americans alike,” Yoder said.

    The cost of my US Post Office Box rental has doubled to $220 a year in the five years since I first started using it.

    1
  44. Beth says:

    @Gustopher:

    First off I love you and I don’t think you’re flippant at all. But I do want to point one thing out that is very much related to the privilege I mentioned above.

    Get married again. Little wedding in a park. Or a pub if it starts to rain. In a rented dress if need be. Given away by your elderly cat. When your family arrives, just do it.

    You’re putting a lot onto this dream, and it’s never going to be perfect, so just do it. And in a few years, when things are going better and you can have the big fancy wedding a bit closer to your dreams… do it again.

    I don’t need a perfect wedding. I just need mine.

    Imagine for a moment, you’re a little girl and on one hand you absorb all the messages that little girls get. That you should be pretty and ultimately have a fairytale wedding. I mean, it’s misogynistic bullshit, but that’s what we do to little girls.

    And on the other had, all the women in your life, your mother, aunts, grandmother and eventually little sisters exclude you from all the girl stuff big and little stupid and profound. All for reasons you can’t understand and are actually so painful that it turns your brain into Swiss cheese.

    Then you go through puberty and the screaming in your brain gets worse and worse. You can’t handle when you have to go shirtless in gym class and you know that your breasts are exposed and the other girls never have to expose their breasts. But you also know they they aren’t there cause your wrong. Your mother and grandmother drilled into you that you were something grotesque. And you saw the cheerleaders. Most of them were wretched cunts. But some of them were so nice and pretty and cool and their coolness and prettiness was effortless.

    And then cause it was the 90’s you’d steal the Victoria’s Secret catalog and look at the pictures and you would dream that these cool, beautiful women would talk to you. Accept you as one of them. They were stunning and popular and nice and they would just want to hang out. They’re your friends and they talk to you about clothes and make up and how to have pretty long hair.

    Then you have to die inside. It’s all too painful. There are flashes of happiness. One of those flashes is getting married to an amazing woman. But it’s like before and you get excluded from all of it. You’re a grotesque disgusting thing that doesn’t get to be with the women while they shop for pretty dresses and discuss flowers and how beautiful the bride will be. You get lucky and get to pick out the music and fight with your mom as she calls your wife to be a whore.

    Then one day you wake up from the nightmare you’ve been stuck in. Now, holy shit, you’re hot and funny and nice. You get to be like those cool cheerleaders. You get to be the popular girl. You understand the power of being the popular girl and try to use it for good. You get to be brought in by the other women. They talk about their periods and being a mom in ways they don’t when their husbands are around. And they’re starting menopause while you’re finishing up second puberty. You can’t decide if not being able to experience menopause is a good thing or not. But at least your boobs are on the outside and real.

    Then just as your finally getting it all, it gets taken away by the braying morons that tortured you in high school. The stuff is ultimately just stuff. But it was the stuff you hoped and dreamed about your whole life. For one brief happy moment you were the pretty popular, lil kooky, cool girl and now it’s gone and you’re out of space and closer to being out of time.

    That’s what I’m losing with my privilege. That’s why, to survive, I can’t have hope. That’s why that dream has to die and I have to kill it. Because otherwise I will kill myself. It’s one thing to have hopes and dreams and have it not work out. It’s another, worse, thing to have all those dreams come true and have them taken away by actual grotesque people.

    Dayenu I guess.

    1