Strong Jobs Report For March*
* - but the tariffs didn't start until April 2
Amid the continued global market downturn (particularly US markets and dollar downturns), supporters of the President got some good news. After two months of lower month-to-month job growth, initial reporting for March shows an increase in the number of new jobs. From NPR:
U.S. employers added 228,000 jobs in March. That’s about twice the number added the previous month, when revised figures show employers added 111,000 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1% in February, as 232,000 people joined or rejoined the workforce. [Source]
Given how much Trump apologists are sharing this news, it’s great to know that we can once again trust the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It’s amazing how easily that faith comes when someone they like is in the White House.
As someone who has trusted those numbers (and their revisions) across both parties, job growth now and in the past is, of course, good news. Here’s to hoping that if revisions happen, they will only revise up. Only time will tell.
All that said, it sure seems like a lot of Trump supporters and the President himself are making a lot of causation/correlation errors in their interpretation of this news:
Granted, “IT’S ALREADY WORKING” can be interpreted in many ways (I look forward to our Trump whispers explanations). But coupled with “HANG TOUGH” (i.e., don’t panic over the last 48 hours), it sure seems like part of the “IT’s” that is “ALREADY” (as in right now) “WORKING” are the Tariffs that dropped two days ago.
Unless you are willing to advance the theory that companies started to hire in March based on market-crushing tariffs that would be implemented on the second day of the following month, this really feels like a correlation error.
Then again, I guess only time will tell. One good thing about the Trump tariffs is that the President had the presence of mind to start them on the second day of April. That means, except for April 1st, this month’s jobs report will almost exclusively include data from what happens after the tariffs were announced.
I’m wondering if any of our readers want to bet that the April jobs report will show the same level of growth as this month.
********************@
Next month? You expect Trump to be thinking about next month?
Yesterday, Stellantis announced the layoffs of 900 US based workers, while also closing facilities in Mexico and Canada. No reshoring of jobs there. Most likely Stellantis is planning for reduced future sales.
I’ll take good news anywhere I can get it. All those laid off air traffic controllers and health experts need somewhere to go.
But yes, soon MAGA will go back to telling us how “rigged” these statistics are. Be ready with a reminder.
When you invest broad power in a malignant personality driven to “reality field distortion,” you get a distortion of the field of reality.
x = x
@Rob1:
So, what happens if interest rates are lowered at a time of high inflation?
Besides banks going broke because they reduce their income from loans and credit while everything else is going up in price.
And the DJIA is down 1,964 at this hour. I’m already tired of winning.
Inflation basically ended last spring. I expect everyone’s seen the The Economist cover declaring our pre-election economy the envy of the world. This jobs report is basically the Biden economy coasting on momentum. Any sensible incoming prez would have left things alone and taken credit for it. Trump really is dumb.
It will take a couple of months for the full impact to hit. May or June numbers will be more telling.
Steve
ADP said there were only 155,000 jobs for March, for what that’s worth.
Also there’s the rather contradictory impact of tariffs:
They increase prices by direct effect, by supply chain effect, and by increasing demand re import substitution effects.
But also, as a tax, have a demand suppression effect.
So the net effect is an utter bitch to calculate.
But the general effect is on the order of:
– take one spun-up turbine
– take one crowbar
– drop crowbar into turbine
– stand well back (no, further back than that)
– you are insured?
@JohnSF:
Plus scattershot tariffs can have counterproductive effects.
It’s one thing to tariff all vehicles, as domestic ones should be cheaper than imports now, even after they go up in price. Sure.
But put tariffs on steel, and on all products from every other country, and maybe some domestic vehicles won’t be cheaper than the imports with the 25% tariff on them.
Add differences in quality, operating costs, reliability, cost of repairs, etc., just to complicate things.
@JohnSF:
To the extent Smoot-Hawley is relevant precedent, job loss and low long-term interest rates would seem likely.
Do we have any reason to believe this jobs report is accurate and not just made up numbers to match the administration’s narrative?
He fired all the people in charge of making sure economic data is accurate:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-administration-disbands-two-expert-panels-economic-data-2025-03-05/