Sunday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Sunday, July 13, 2025
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31 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a retired Professor of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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BlueSky.
I’ve long had this notion that anything concrete has a definite value, even if we can’t measure it exactly or at all. Perhaps excluding the states of subatomic particles, per the uncertainty principle.
There are also things we can never know. Like historical counterfactuals. There are too many possible paths and too many people with agency involved.
I’ve been thinking about these two notions in connection with what we discussed the other day about movies, and how no one really knows anything regarding which movies will succeed at the box office and which won’t. Which just means no one can see or know the future.
So, there must be a definite value to any counterfactual, we just don’t know it, and possibly can’t ever know it.
This means there are movies that were never made, and many of these cannot ever made now (like Jodorowsky’s version of Dune), which for all we know would have been massive box office successes, and/or might have started long or short term trends in moviemaking.
We know for a fact some movies are massive box office flops. Especially some with huge budgets that make back a tiny percentage of what they cost to make (see Waterworld), even back when the VHS and DVD rental and sale markets brought in large revenues.
So, there must also exist an unmade movie (in script or pitch form) that, if made, would have lost over $1 billion.
See if this works
Okay.
It works.
I got nothin’.
@Kathy:
From a different POV: counterfactuals don’t exist until I have an idea, write a pitch, sell it, cash the first advance check, write the damn thing, get another tranche of money, and then it goes into publication at which point I get another tranche of money.
There are some reported 160 people still missing in the Texas floods. Hopefully, many are just reported missing but are really somewhere else and haven’t checked in. But given the magnitude and ferocity of the flood I suspect that bodies will be discovered in the weeks, months, and even years to come. And those bodies will be far downstream (as far as Canyon Lake, about 60 miles).
My daughter (and later son) participated in the YMCA Adventure Guides (formerly Indian Guides) which is a parent-child program up to about age 12. Was perusing photos this morning, including that of Camp Mystic. Saw some cabins that were awful familiar and realized that my daughter and I camped in those cabins back in the early 2000s. Tragedy becomes less abstract at that point.
With each desperate bleat Trump moves himself closer to Epstein. He’s now yelling, ‘Go away, nothing to see here!’
He’s willing to risk splitting MAGA to hide what’s in those imaginary files. So, it’s probably not just that picture of him with a pair of topless teenagers on his lap that Michael Wolff claims to have seen. I suspect our boy committed statutory rape at the very least, to go along with his adjudicated rape as foreshadowed by, ‘Grab ’em by the pussy.’
I suspect this is the ‘pee tapes.’ Not kink-shaming Cadet Bonespurs here, do your consensual thing grandpa, and it may not be golden showers per se – although, hmmm, he does love him some gold – but it’s something bad, something he cannot allow to escape. And I have a feeling a copy of whatever it is, is in Vladimir Vladimirovich’s locked desk drawer.
On the one hand, if it comes out Putin loses his leverage. Good for the country and the world. On the other hand, imagine grainy video of Trump. . . or maybe don’t.
Breaking fashion news:
Trump threatening to revoke someone’s citizenship isn’t a random brain fart from a mental and moral degenerate. It’s part of the same effort that includes expanding ICE staffing and jails.
https://apnews.com/article/trump-rosie-odonnell-citizenship-835642a4d55a7897663c6ba89f42e606
Or as John Ganz said recently:
While I have 1000% confidence that the new OTB Register to Comment routine will be a total success (Is that 12:01 am EDT Monday July 14, 2025?) I note here that OTB has a Facebook page where messages can be recorded.
https://www.facebook.com/outsidethebeltway
See you on the other side.
GLB
A really great essay on Superman’s relevance in our current age of awfulness.
@Scott:..Indian Guides…
Thanks for the memory!
The Camp Mystic tragedy in Texas has taken me back to summer camps I attended when I was in grade school in the ’50s.
Two summers of two weeks each at Massawepie Boy Scout Camp in the Adirondack Mountains of New York State.
I know that I attended a YMCA camp somewhere in New York State for at least a week. I vaguely remember an argument I had with a friend about whether or not Jews were Christians. I thought that they were. My friend said no.
Now that you mention Indian Guides I remember that they were associated with the YMCA. Could be how I got hooked up with the YMCA camp. What I remember about the Indian Guides was day camping on the weekends in the winter. (It was always winter on the shores of Lake Ontario where we lived near Rochester NY.)
When I was in Junior High School I went to a church camp that included boys and girls. That was after we moved to Illinois in 1961. I remember the camping trip was right after Marilyn Monroe died in 1962. It was a hot topic of conversation.
Boy Scouts had other camps over the years. Weekend? Week long? Can’t recall.
I do have a vivid memory of two adults using the chair carry to get one of the campers to a car and to the closest emergency room. The kid had just swung an axe trying to cut some wood and buried the axe in his leg instead. Don’t ask me how.
@Gregory Lawrence Brown: I also have good memories of Boy Scout camp. Went two weeks every summer at Camp Baiting Hollow on Long Island. Platform tents and cots. Could roll up the sides and sleep in the open air. Actual two hole latrines; no plumbing.
@Gregory Lawrence Brown: @Scott:
My Boy Scout experience was somewhat different. When I was warned on my one and only camp-out about hazing, I warned in return that while they had pocket knives, I had a USMC bayonet. Oppositional Defiant Disorder meets Crocodile Dundee.
@Kingdaddy: I recently realized (likely quite belatedly compared to many of you) that the “America” in MAGA is one of those poorly defined words that MAGA likes to use to shift their meaning when talking to different audiences. On one hand, interpreted broadly it can mean “everything under the purview of the US government,” but I suspect what many really mean by America is “my in group” of (often) white Christian nationalists of a socially conservative bent. This is how they can so easily ignore all of the threats, and things actually being done, to anyone they don’t identify closely with. They literally do not include these people in the definition of “America,” so have no reason to take them into consideration when creating their vision of greatness.
A more accurate slogan is Make Us Great Again
testing
sorry about the double test post
I’m beginning to see a few spoilers for the Superman movie on social media (not here, we’re not that social).
Someone is dropped from a height, including the who, by whom, and whether they survive.
Normally I don’t care about spoilers — how a movie does something matters more to me than what it does*. The fact that I’m trying to avoid these spoilers I guess means that I should just suck it up and deal with a movie theater.
Perhaps the theater will find a new way to disappoint me.
*: this is very unfortunate when you love Transformers. What’s the plot of Revenge of the Fallen? No one can tell, it’s really more about the experience than the plot. How does it get there? Through poorly defined characters, lots of explosions, fights between indistinguishable gray lumps of CGI, and so much racism. And a dog getting humped by another dog, unless that was a different terrible Transformers movie.
This is not the time for CSK to take a break.
The Epstein debacle is reportedly threatening the maga foundations and she’s out of pocket.
Hope she’s good.
For some reason my MacBook Air just went through the Restart routine without any prompting on my part. I wasn’t even touching the machine. This can’t be good.
Currently binge watching Mr. Robot on Netflix. I use the cheap version of Netflix so I get ads and a recurrent one has been a TSA recruitment spot showing happy workers in uniform and stressing pay, benefits and a pension. Wonder if ICE will start recruiting on streaming platforms.
@Mr. Prosser:
I’ve tried to both get TSA pre check and (@employer’s insisting) clearance to be a screener). Apparently felony 50 years ago is a hard no (giggles).
Wonder if ice wants me (other than as a camp attendee?)
@Mr. Prosser:
How are you enjoying it?
I took on too much work and was too optimistic in my ability to deliver, and I feel so disappointed in myself. I didn’t deliver what I promised and that rarely happens. But even with night after night of working past midnight and starting again at 6am, I didn’t manage it. And that’s a terrible feeling of failure.
@Kurtz: It’s pretty intense but I’m enjoying the hacking. The main character’s mental state keeps me guessing as to what is real and what isn’t. The production is quite good. There are aspects that remind me of William Gibson’s cyberpunk stories and his contrasting of the rich corporations vs. the masses.
@Mr. Prosser:
Enjoy!
For me, it’s almost up there with the Big 2. Many put Breaking Bad up there—a show I think is excellent. But I have too many issues with it to put it in my top tier.
@becca: I’m sure that the MAGA base will come back together after they embrace some Libertarian ideals into their platform… lowering the age of consent, and legalizing prostitution. Then any and all problems Trump might have with Epstein will vanish.
And I can see some of the bad faith folks explaining that Republicans are ephebophiles, and Democrats are pedophiles, and that there’s a world of difference.
——
With regards to CSK, I will simply note that this place has been extra annoying of late, between the trolls and the regularish people with frayed tempers. I hope CSK is doing well and comes back refreshed and ready to ignore people being annoying.
You know what, fuck it, I don’t think de stijl would really like people beating around the bush…
What the fuck, dude? Most people are generally ok with people being concerned and wanting to reach out. You’re obviously an outlier, and that’s fine and noted, you be you, but don’t assume everyone is like that, or that it’s weird, stalking and unhealthy.
Calm the fuck down, and let things slide a bit more when it’s ultimately harmless.
And by noted, I mean that if someone notes that you’ve been missing and inquires as to whether anyone has seen signs of life, I will point out that you don’t want that. Totally fine, if a bit odd. But we should try to respect that.
And, for the record, if I dip out, it’s likely what my shrink likes to call “depression” and what I would call “overstimulated, overwhelmed and a bit prickly”, but I would not be offended if someone checked on me — either directly, or said “his mediocre bluesky art account hasn’t been very active, but he did a Sunday fish sketch last week, so probably not dead.”
@Gustopher: I do worry about de Stijl, but I worry about a lot of people beyond my control. Just know it’s because I consider a lot of you friends, despite never meeting in person.
Strong possibility I’m going to have to put my special needs cat, Runty, down tomorrow. I’ve had her for 12 years. She was born with a birth defect that makes her tongue smooth. She required shaves 3 times a year, she was half the size of a normal cat but put the serious beatdown on some grasshoppers. And she made me LAUGH, she had some ninja moves.
She developed a severe upper respiratory tract infection last week. Vet visit, antibiotics, eye drops….but now she’s lost her hearing and hasn’t eaten or had any water since Friday.
I will miss my Runty Sassy Pants.
@Jax: So sorry to hear that! The time comes, and we know it is the right thing to do, but it is still sad!
@Steven L. Taylor: Thank you. I will miss her so much. I was going through my phone pictures last night…she has literally made me laugh for 12 years. For a little runty kitten that I found under a bush with her eyes crusted shut, that needed special help with a syringe and milk to stay alive….to the vet that also loved her so much and only charged me $30 per shave, 3 times a year….she made an impact, for a little cat.
@Jax: Sorry this is happening. Best wishes.
I thought this was a joke, but apparently it is true:
Trump Kept Gold Club World Cup Trophy for Himself So FIFA Had to Give the Winners a Replica
“They [FIFA] said: ‘Could you hold this trophy for a little while?’ We put it in the Oval Office and then I said: ‘When are you going to pick up the trophy’, and [FIFA President Gianni Infantino] said: ‘We’re never going to pick it up, you can have it forever in the Oval Office,’” Trump explained in a mid-game chat with the broadcaster, DAZN.
He then revealed to reporter Emily Austin that the victor, Chelsea, actually received a replica of the original for winning the tournament.
FIFA executives stayed in Trump hotels during the entire tournament. Not surprising, FIFA is corrupt, 10 years ago officials were indicted for taking $100 million in bribes.