Monday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Monday, September 22, 2025
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43 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on
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BlueSky.
My adult children and I (along with friends of children and a couple of nieces and nephews) share streaming services. Unfortunately, my daughter canxed Hulu so I’ll have to wait for Alien: Earth unless I can persuade #1 son to add it to his Disney account. BTW, has anyone watch Peter Pan in recent years. The grandchildren were watching it the other day and oh, my! Songs like “What makes the red man red? is pretty bad.
Ugh is right.
Is anyone in US paying attention?
3 Russian fighter jets entered Estonian airspace in ‘brazen’ incursion
UK fighter jets deploy to NATO border with Russia
Germany scrambles jets after Russia military aircraft flies over Baltic Sea
Dear Wife and I are leaving for Italy today. We get back home on the 20th of October. For our trip we’re flying Delta out of West Palm Beach to Naples via Atlanta. For our return we fly Milan-JFK-PBI.
The highlights of the trip- Visiting Rome and Vatican City, I looking up my roots in and around Florence, plus attending a baby christening in Zurich. No book signings. Amazon Italy’s marketplace has never produced much $$$$ for me. Of the 12 AMZ marketplaces my books are sold at, Italy ranked 10th when I was still self-publishing. Only the Netherlands and Mexico were worse.
With customary efficiency, DW has us all packed up. She’ll
intentionally misplace my strat-o-matic baseball stuffdouble check our baggage before our airport pickup service gets here. They will be coming at 8:30.As you some of you recall, DW feeds the feral cats every morning. Another resident of our condo will take up that chore in our absence. Alex, a friend of DW and I, will periodically check on our condo, cars, and empty our mailbox. He lives about two miles from us.
I spent yesterday buying 5 new polo shirts, watching Auntie Mame, and laboring through this book. William F Buckley’s prose and style can be rather dense but having read 7 other novels of his I’m used to it. Nevertheless, See you later, Alligator is proving to be a real chore. Other than the Dolphins, I have been watching less and less pro football.
Talking about the Dolphins, if they lose to the NY Jets a week from today, I expect Head Coach Mike McDaniel to be fired soon afterwards.
My brother -in-law known as Lito** suffered a stroke in the Philippines yesterday. It isn’t life-threatening but it severely limits his left arm and leg etc.
Before going, something from Auntie Mame
Mame Dennis: Oh, Agnes, where is your spine? Here you’ve been taking my dictation for weeks and you don’t get the message of my book. Live, that’s the message!
Agnes Gooch: Live?
Mame Dennis: Yes! Life is a banquet and most poor suckers are starving to death!
All of you keep living while I’m gone. Ciao!
*- Where my paternal grandparents are from.
**- All my wife’s siblings have nicknames. Eding, Bebe, Boy, Lito etc.
@Scott: Yep. I noted this on Saturday.
Putin will try to get away with whatever he can. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have probably been expecting this.
That hb1 visa fee looks to me like a kick in Modi ‘s pants. 70% of those visa holders are Indian.
Looks the WH is in damage control already.
@becca: Yeah, it does sort of seem like this was someone’s pet project and it got pushed through without realizing the ramifications. While tech gets a lot of attention, there are a bunch of other employment lines that use H1B visas, including medicine. Hospitals and other medical services are already short-staffed and struggling with funding. This is going to be a BIG mess.
From an article by a retired lieutenant general, comparing today’s demagogues to the Southern fire-eaters before the Civil War:
The Autumnal Equinox occurs in about four hours in the Northern Hemisphere.
1:19pm where I live in the Central Time Zone. Rain has been falling all night and is forecast to continue for several days. I have been sweeping the leaves of brown off my steps morning and night.
Good-by Summer. I’ll be here waiting in 9 months.
September in the Rain
Dinah Washington
@Jen:
‘Without realizing the ramifications” is a polite way of saying “utter morons.” It’s hard to imagine that someone could not know that South Asians are the majority recipients of H1B visas. Or they could have not cared, in which case, this is just Make American White Again, pure and simple, without regard to the economy or foreign policy.
@Scott: The Baltic states, Finland, and Poland don’t trust the US to live up to its Article V commitments, in case of attack from Russia. They’re looking at mining their borders, and in the case of Lithuania, also equipping cluster munitions. That means withdrawing from international conventions banning both mines and cluster weapons. It also means turning parts of their country into uninhabitable areas, strewn with mines.
https://lieber.westpoint.edu/leaving-ottawa-lithuania-denounces-anti-personnel-mines-convention/
Having been among the first former SSRs to leave the Soviet Union, Lithuania undoubtedly has special significance in the mind of Putin. Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania have been the targets of relentless cyber attacks. Most severely, Estonia suffered a massive attack in 2007, following the government’s decision to relocate a Soviet memorial.
Trump has shown he has no concern for Ukraine, or the NATO allies most threatened by Russia. So now we have Make Mines Great Again.
@Jen:
That will be a point in the first paragraph of the history the felon’s policies.
Great article in the Times this morning, apparently Taiwan manufactures about 80% of the screws and fasteners used in the US and of course they are subject to the 50% steel and aluminum tariffs, resulting in increased costs throughout the economy.
@Kingdaddy:
Mines are an interesting arms control problem. They’re easy to make, easy to place. The Baltic folks will of course carefully map their mine fields so that they can eventually be retrieved. And they won’t be placing them in areas where civilians might encounter them. That’s not the case in less advanced countries where mines may be scattered and lost. At the time of the treaties IIRC the big issue was Cambodia, maybe Congo as well.
In war, mines are very useful. We never signed because we use mines along the Korean border. And the people who did sign were never really giving anything up, they just couldn’t imagine that kind of old-fashioned invasion was going to be an issue in Europe. As soon as Putin started to bring back blitzkrieg, mines were inevitably going to reappear. And of course both Russia and Ukraine use them freely.
Other than poison gas I can’t think of a weapon that has been eliminated by arms control treaties, and that has more to do with gas being a pretty impractical weapon. If Russia finds a use for gas, they’ll use gas. Arms treaties only work until the weapon is needed.
@becca: @Jen:
This kind of nonsense is bad for the economy, but good for us politically. South Asian Indians are not yet attached firmly to either party. They’re seeing that Republicans have the same contempt for them that they do for any non-white. It’s not just the H1-Bs, a lot of these folks immigrated in the expectation that they’d be able to bring more family over with them. A lot are also high-caste and not at all accustomed to being second-class citizens. And they have money. Democrats should be all over this, reaching out to Indians and Pakistanis and Bangladeshis. We could replace some of the money we’re losing by alienating Jews.
And now we are bailing out Team T’s pal in Argentina.
https://en.mercopress.com/2025/09/20/milei-bailout-from-washington-being-negotiated
That Mango-loving Milei fellow is quite the character. He has 6 or 7 clones of his beloved pug that he calls his advisors. Very weird and getting weirder. Lost big time in recent Buenos Aires elections. But he’s a grifter extraordinaire, like T and birds of a feather…
@Jen:
To me this is a sign that Putin is getting desperate, but I also suspect that I just pointed out water is wet, and touching a hot stove is not good idea.
Again, pointing out the obvious, but Putin seems to underestimate that Europe has plenty of means to defend themselves without quaking in their boots until the U.S. has sent over a number of ships and jets to join the effort to help defend Ukraine.
The odd thing to me is that I also can see this as Putin testing out his allies like Çhina and India, doing small incursions into NATO countries and waiting until this causes them to take notice and say something to him like knock it off, we have no plans to join your quest to take over most of Europe in an attempt to bring modern glory to Russia.
Sign number 746,286 that we live in interesting times.
The most interesting thing I’ve seen anybody say about these incursions into NATO airspace is that “Putin doesn’t want to lose to Ukraine, he wants to lose to NATO”.
There’s really no way to verify this, though. And “Russia is losing” is the sort of thing I feel I need to be skeptical about. I want it too much, and it would be easy to engage in wishful thinking.
I will say, it is pretty clear that if he can provoke NATO into doing something dramatic, then it will be on Russian TV 24/7 and be good for Russian morale and support for the “special military operation”.
I dunno. It’s not so hard to find people who think H1B visas take away American jobs. The question is whether this is accurate or not. But you can find them, and that will put the visas squarely in Stephen Miller’s sights.
It also seems to me that it is a warning shot at Silicon Valley companies. A company I worked for in the nineties here was a pioneer in offering health insurance to domestic partners – the queer folk at the company organized and got themselves and their partners included in that program.
The headliners range from a little bit reactionary and accommodating to a high-octane reactionaries, (or perhaps misguided fools with too much money). But there’s lots of other folks here. The Valley was a huge supporter of Obama, and Clinton before that.
@Jay L. Gischer:
It’s to bad there’s no scorekeeping in war, nor a set time period for it to play out.
The usual measure, territory gained and controlled, would indicate Russia is winning. On the other hand, by the same measure Germany was winning until it was forced to surrender in 1918.
Yes, there are a myriad differences and all, but saying who’s winning what is essentially a slow war of attrition with tons of outside inputs is akin to a fool’s errand.
@becca: Milei îs an active Trump supporter and tried to emulate Trump in many ways. However, like Trump he is facing corruption issues. Unlike in the US, that is causing him problems. So Trump, using our money, is going to bail him out. Meanwhile, he bumped tariffs in Brazil to 50% because he didnt like what they did to Bolsanaro. We dont really have any special connections to either country, but we are going to spend billions of US dollars based upon Trump’s personal pique/preferences.
Steve
@Jay L. Gischer:
Interesting.
There isn’t much doubt that Russia is losing. Their summer offensive netted them some open fields and not much else, and then their salient was enveloped by the Ukrainians. Their oil production is way down, and could become almost fatally impaired. The EU is cutting off their LNG. Their sovereign fund is empty.
We all underestimated the Ukrainians, in part because of the Red Army’s outsized reputation, and in part because when you look at the map Russia is so much bigger, and their population is so much larger. Except that the map is deceptive – most of Russia is unpopulated and undeveloped. And they have to expend huge resources to cover a very long border with NATO and China and the restive Caucasus and the ‘stans. The population ratio is about 4:1. The population ratio between the US and Afghanistan is 8:1. How’d that work out?
We are in a period where the advantage seems to have shifted to defense. Add in Russian corruption and incompetence, the innate advantage of interior lines, the slow way the Russians adjusted tactics, the brilliance of the Ukrainians, a supply of superior western arms and the EU as a financial backstop, and yes, the Russians are losing. In fact, as to their initial aims, they’ve already lost. Their best outcome now is holding on to what they’ve got.
Putin will have destroyed his economy, lost vast amounts of gear and taken around a million casualties in order to hold on to what he already had.
I watched episode 9 season 3 of Foundation on Saturday. I wasn’t that interested in this week’s football games*, and I’ve plenty of time to finish the Futurama eps before the Disney+ subscription expires (it’s already cancelled). So I could have watched ep 10 on Sunday.
There are three likely developments that need to take place, and all seem huge in some way. And even so I decided I’d wait til next weekend to see it.
Of course I’m aware I’ll break down and watch it before Friday, but I’m trying not to. There’s something about no bingeing a show, not even a slow binge of one ep daily, that makes it more enjoyable. perhaps because I’ve time to think about the latest developments. Or maybe specifically for Foundation because I know, or think I do, the resolution of each crisis, but not how the writers will do it.
Please use spoiler alerts if you post about ep 10.
Thank you.
*It’s hard to follow the league when I’m rooting against my favorite team and it’s not yet playoff season.
@steve222: Milei is a cartoon. He won largely because Argentinians have been screwed over by their governments so long they just said “wtf how can it get any worse?”
Ha! Joke’s on them! It can and did get worse.
Also, Argentinians don’t like Milei enriching himself with meme coins and such. It’s not just criminal to them, it’s crass.
@Michael Reynolds:
I’m not sure why you cleave to such a cynical view of international relations in your comments here on OTB. In this case, you’re not only wrong, but your position puts you in uncomfortable company.
There have been lots of voluntary restrictions on weapons in the last century, at least. We don’t see chemical agents applied on the battlefield. We don’t see most countries stockpiling or deploying mines. The superpowers agreed on various arms control measures, despite the dissenting voices that said that every step towards achieving nuclear superiority was necessary for mere survival.
“But wait!” you say. “What about…”
OK, let’s explore the whatabouts.
The most benign example of a violator was Reagan, who arguably breached the ABM Treaty with the SDI program. Did the United States “need” ABM defenses? Opinions differ. I didn’t agree with the Reagan Administration, but I heard sincere arguments on both sides.
Certainly, Saddam Hussein didn’t “need” to use chemical weapons against his own population. Opinions don’t differ on that. Ditto for Bashar al-Assad using chemical weapons during the Syrian Civil War. No “need” there.
Or, perhaps, you’d like to cite Hitler ripping up the Anglo-German Naval Treaty? To what extent did the Third Reich “need” to build warships in preparation for aggression against its neighbors? Or, for that matter, did the Kaiser “need” to get into a naval arms race with Britain, during the dreadnought era?
Of course, it’s easy to come up with straw man counter-examples like, “What about the Pope banning crossbows? Pretty silly, eh?” But in recent history, restrictions on weapons have done a lot of good, without having to be perfect. And the people violating these restrictions are often the worst actors. Not exclusively, of course, as evidenced by the number of restrictions to which the United States hasn’t agreed. We can debate the wisdom or necessity of the US position. But for most of the world, it’s a happier place without mines and biological weapons. Or having people say, “Go ahead and target civilian populations as much as you like. We don’t care.”
@Kingdaddy:
I’m positive that without the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, we’d have had some kind of war or conflict where nukes got used. A great many countries would have tried to develop their own. Actually many did and gave up or were stopped. I believe South Africa and Argentina (!) were among the former. We know Iraq and Libya were among the latter.
Get enough nukes in enough countries, and someone’s bound to use them eventually. Or some nuclear armed state might have tried to stop some aspiring nuclear state. Imagine if Taiwan tried to develop nukes of its own. What would China do?
So, yeah, India, Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea did not abide by the treaty. But many more did.
I keep seeing headlines saying autism is caused by Tylenol. Never acetaminophen. Tylenol is a brand name for acetaminophen.
Why are they singling out Tylenol? Does RFK jr not know that it’s a brand name and generic versions are everywhere?
@Kingdaddy:
The Anglo-German Naval Agreement of 1935 was a disaster for the UK and the Wester Alliance, such as it was at that point.
It convinced the Nazi’s that the UK had abandoned any attempt to uphold the Versailles Treaty terms, Italy that thaere was no point in trying to contest German dominance in central Europe, and France that Britain had no stomach for confronting Germany, and therefore France could not afford to either.
Also, the UK planned to use chemical weapons if Germany had attempted an invasion, treaties or no treaties.
Lord Alanbrooke stated later: (we) “… had every intention of using sprayed mustard gas on the beaches”.
Just as Ukraine is using cluster munitions and minefields against the Russian army, because they are seen as essential.
@Kingdaddy:
I’m not being cynical, just laying aside the rose colored glasses. Treaties didn’t stall poison gas development, or bio-weapons, they are both very impractical in that both can come back on your own troops, and if you can get a warhead or shell to land close enough to emit gas, it could just as easily kill with HE.
The thing that stopped more countries from trying to go nuclear was the US nuclear umbrella. You don’t need nukes if the Americans will nuke ’em for you. The second most effective anti-nuke program in the real world has been Israel, which blew up the Iraqi program and just recently dented the Iranian effort.
Eastern Europe didn’t because: USSR. Germany didn’t because: USA. (Also USSR.) Japan didn’t because of Hiroshima and again, the US. See also: South Korea. Who else? Countries in the ME know what Israel will do. Europe: no need, big allies. So, who have the treaties stopped? Australia? Thailand? Nigeria? Canada?
It’s not the treaties, it’s the power realities and the battlefield realities.
Jimmy Kimmel will be returning to the air tomorrow, a deal was worked out. Originally Sinclair said they would not carry him unless he personally apologized to the family and made a substantial donation to Turning Point, USA. I wonder what the deal ends up being.
@Michael Reynolds:
I recall from last autumn onwards repeated reports with the general narrative line that “Ukraine is struggling, and Russia is on the verge of breaking the Ukrainian defences in Donetsk and taking Kupiansk, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk and Pokrovsk.”
Well, here we about 12 months later, and the UAF still hold them.
(And despite the US buggering about with munitions deliveries)
With Russia having suffered casualties in the magnitude of hundreds of thousands trying to take them. This sort of warfare almost always produces much higher casualties in the force conducting offensive operations.
While in the missile/drone “deep air war”, Russia seems to hit mainly “morale targets”, while Ukraine is methodically working away at oil refineries, depots, and other logistic targets.
As for Russian provocation re NATO, it’s main motivation is political.
To attempt to drive wedges into the alliance, assisted by Trump’s defualt to do nothing much, and to stimulate the expected reaction of the vocal subsets of MAGA, and some European far-right, that demand Ukraine must be compelled to capitulate to avert “imminent World War 3.”
There may also be secondary intentions of testing SACEUR response, probing and gathering intel on NATO air defences, etc.
At this point I doubt even Putin and the Russian high command are stupid enough to throw the depleted remants of the field army against the NATO battlegroups in Poland and the Baltic States.
It might be difffrent if Putin becomes truly desperate: ie the Russian army in Ukraine comes to the point of collapse similar to Russia in 1917, or Germany in 1918.
At which point, rather than, effectively, concede defeat and cut losses, the Kremlin might be tempted to “roll the iron dice” one more time …
@Jay L. Gischer:
Putin’s objective with these petty acts might be to get the Euros to spend more on the defense of NATO borders and perhaps consequently less stuff donated to Ukraine.
As Kathy astutely pointed out, this has become a war of attrition, which spans a broad spectrum, from blood and guts all the way down to public support in the form of willingness to endure higher taxation and the inherent discomforts of mobilization.
@becca:
It may be nothing more than brand recognition. Like calling ice resurfacing machines Zambonies even if they are another brand.
I’m more concerned why he’s going after acetaminophen (aka paracetamol in the rest of the world), rather than quintupling down on vaccines. Maybe there’s some decades old badly conducted study showing some kind of correlation. Maybe many pregnant people delay taking it when they develop fever, out of concern for the fetus, and the fever winds up causing neurological issues (very likely probably not).
I don’t follo deranged people on social media, or much of anyone else , really, so I wouldn’t know.
The last time I heard something negative about acetaminophen was back in 2015, before Fakebook went completely enshitified, to the effect that it does nothing about headaches or other minor aches.
Or maybe the worm is whispering in his ear.
@becca: Oh, I’d love to hear Trump try to pronounce “acetaminophen.” Throw *that* up on the teleprompter and see what comes out. I think there’s a high probability that people in the White House are equating Tylenol: acetaminophen as Kleenex: facial tissues.
What with all the distractions from the Epstein *cover-up, here’s a tidbit from the weekend… on Saturday, Thomas Massie posted this on Xitter:
*I feel like a bit of a conspiracy theorist using “cover-up”, but the term does seem appropriate.
It’s difficult to describe the sheer lunacy of the anti-Tylenol announcement (Trump has warned people off of Tylenol–the brand name–around a dozen times). He’s also back on with the “cutting drug prices by 900, 1000%” stupidity again, said that he’s not relying on doctors for MMR advice and instead using HIS “common sense” (JFC/OMFG), and that Hep B is sexually transmitted so no one should have that vaccine “until they are 12.”
I don’t know if it’s Drew (again) or some new apologist, but once again someone is banging on about Biden’s mental acuity. And yet, here we are.
ETA: I just can’t.
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lzhey3btil2r
@Jen: when anyone in the gop says “It’s just common sense.” I think of common as in the vulgar sense, like common thief.
@Jen:
He’s also saying there’s no downside.
Besides being a blatant violation of Kathy’s First Law, there is a pretty BIG and obvious downside: maternal fever, if it persists for long enough, can cause birth defects on the fetus as it develops.
One can imagine women who don’t have alternatives around carrying on with a low fever, or even a higher fever, for hours until they find something else, or until the next day.
Also, there are guidelines to avoid NSAIDs (non-steroid anti-inflammatory drugs) like ibuprofen and naproxen during pregnancy, especially after the 20th week. Acetaminophen is not an NSAID drug.
Now, the best thing to do in case of fever during pregnancy should be to call a doctor. We know how easy and convenient and affordable and non-problematic this is for everyone in America, especially low income people working multiple jobs.
BTW, has El Taco or Jr, or any one in what passes for an administration these days suggested what to take instead of acetaminophen?
You know, I’m married to a nurse, and she refers to acetaminophen as “Tylenol” all the time. Even as she never uses it, since she asserts it has no effect on her.
PS. Given what just happened to me, if anybody asks me how to spell the generic name of Tylenol, I will simply reply “wrong”
PPS. It took me maybe 5 or 6 tries!
@Jay L. Gischer: I think a lot–probably most!–people say “Tylenol” when they mean “acetaminophen.”
However, the President of the United States, when suggesting that a particular drug is implicated in a widespread condition, and in speaking to a global audience, should BE PRECISE.
@Jen:
Yes, but what should El Taco be other than a blustering bumbling fool?
@Jen: Perhaps it is the very specific formulation of whatever coating is used for brand name Tylenol?
I’m just surprised that so far Ivermectin appears to be ineffective at treating autism. Good news for autistic kids, who won’t be fed so much horse dewormer that they shit themselves.
I hope the drug they are claiming needs to be studied more has no awful side effects. And no sound-alikes that are found in “natural remedy” stores.
@Michael Reynolds:
Aryan Nation is one of those misnomers — they don’t like actual Aryan people at all.
Like Nazis being National Socialists despite no actual love of socialism.
Has there ever been a conservative movement that appealed to working class people and which didn’t just flat out lie about their core identity? Christian Nationalists who have a very selective reading of Christ, and White Supremacists who are obviously not supreme also leap to mind.
You can appeal to the James Joyners of the world with promises of a slightly lower marginal tax rate, and a nuanced foreign policy, but then you’ve limited yourself to the James Joyners, and there aren’t that many of those.
(No offense intended towards our host. He’s just a conservative man who isn’t buying the racist populism, and it’s hard to find others these days.)
@Gustopher: Nah. It’s because he can’t pronounce acetaminophen.
From last week, commentary on a Dutch talk show about the censoring of Jimmy Kimmel, plus a look at what Disney would become under El Taco