Trump’s Nobel Bid
Peace Prize in our time!
The WaPo report on the partial peace deal between Israel and Hamas didn’t contain enough additional substantive material to add to my earlier post, but did include this angle:
The final impetus for a deal may have been the impending announcement of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize on Friday. Trump has long expressed his desire for the prize, and at times has said Gaza peace might clinch it. The apparent last-minute dash is unusual, since officials familiar with how the committee operates say it typically has already made its decision with just days to go before the winner is announced.
Appearing on Fox News on Wednesday after the initial announcement of the ceasefire, Trump said that Netanyahu had called him to celebrate the deal and marvel at the global reaction.
“He said, ‘Everybody’s liking me now,’ meaning him,” Trump told Fox News host Sean Hannity. “I said that, more importantly, they’re loving Israel again, and they really are.”
[…]
Asked in the Oval Office on Tuesday what guarantees Washington is willing to give Arab partners that Israel will not resume the fight if Hamas releases all of its hostages, Trump said: “We have a lot of power, and we’re going to do everything possible to make sure everybody adheres to the deal.”
Negotiators and analysts said much of what is happening with the negotiations in the Egyptian resort city of Sharm el-Sheikh depended on Trump, who was some 6,000 miles away in Washington. Egyptian President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi invited Trump to travel to Egypt for a signing ceremony if a deal is reached.
“Trump is no longer acting as a mediator but as an arbitrator,” said Israeli Col. Doron Hadar, a reservist officer who commanded the Israel Defense Forces’ negotiation unit until last year. “In points where no agreement is reached, he will decide, and that’s a good thing.”
Trump has piled pressure on mediators for a quick resolution to the conflict, which he promised on the campaign trail to end as he hopes to win the Nobel Peace Prize. Hadar said the announcement of this year’s recipient, expected Friday, added to the sense of urgency in Egypt.
As bizarre and amusing as actively campaigning for a Nobel Peace Prize may be, it seems pretty clear that Trump was indeed the key driver here. He’s certainly more deserving of it than some past recipients, including Yasir Arafat, Henry Kissinger, and Barack Obama.
I can’t imagine, however, that he’ll be announced as the winner Friday. Not only is everyone in fact not liking him right now, but the fact that he’s actively campaigning for the medal works against him. And, even if Trump were wildly popular with the sort of folks who make the decision, it would be foolhardy to award it at this tentative stage of the process. The committee has been burned many times by premature declarations of peace. If the hostages are returned and Gaza is being rebuilt a year from now, though, I for one wouldn’t begrudge him the prize.
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If, and that’s a big if, the peace plan sticks, then there is a good argument for the felon being awarded a Nobel sometime in the future.
I do believe that his willingness to back Bibi into a corner, in a manner other presidents haven’t is making a difference. Of course we’re talking about TACO here and his attention span, that is about as long as the life cycle of a flash bulb, so we can be all but guaranteed that tomorrow he’ll be off on something else and both Hamas and Israel will backslide on the agreement.
I think the blowing up ships at sea and the summary execution of their occupants cancels out any humanitarian awards.
Lusting after Gaza as the newest beach resort and golf club probably would also give pause.
Contrary point of view: to the extent we’re going to have peace in Gaza, the credit goes to Netanyahu.
If Hamas had not been largely exterminated, had the Hamas leadership not been scared by the attack on Qatar, if Hezbollah were still functional, if Iran’s IRGC had not been severely weakened, had the Ayatollahs not been shown to be impotent, had Fatah not been co-opted, this deal would not have happened.
This deal is the solution I proposed last year: Hamas could surrender. That’s what we have here, a Hamas surrender and an Israeli victory. A Netanyahu victory. It does rather call to mind the famous quote from Roman times, “They make a desolation and call it peace.”
@becca: They gave it to Kissinger for negotiating the Vietnam peace deal despite numerous known law of war violations—and those were directly related to the reason for the prize! They gave it to Arafat despite his being a literal terrorist. They gave it to Obama for not being Bush, and he promptly ordered more bombings than Bush had. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
@Michael Reynolds: Clearly, Netanyahu’s ruthlessness has made it easier to bring Hamas to the table. But Trump’s strongarming (and a well-crafted settlement by whoever is behind the details) is clearly the proximate cause of this deal being reached.
If it were my decision, I’d give Obama a second Nobel Peace Prize.
In what revisionist history alternate reality or does “certainly” mean the opposite of what it means? Before Obama was awarded, he hadn’t deployed the US military domestically against his own citizens, illegally bombed Venezuelan civilians and refused to provide justification for it, bombed Iran (twice), bombed Syria, threatened to annex Canada, launched a global trade war for no reason, floated sending troops into Mexico, incited a deadly terror attack on Congress, been found liable for rape, or used the funeral of someone who’d called for his predecessor’s assassination to announce he “hates” half his countrymen.
Obama was awarded for similar reasons MLK was and disqualified himself later. He hadn’t disqualified himself long before winning, like the orange felon/rapist/pedo.
And before this thread descends too far down the rabbit hole of bizarre Trump apologetics, revision, and undeserved normalization: Trump is hatemongering racist, rapist, and pederast — a serial abuser of women and children — one who incited a terror attack on Congress while attempting a coup. Such a person should not be a recipient of any prize in the 21st century, for any reason (or be president of the United States). That’s what’s working against him.
Sure… why not. The guy who encouraged non-nuclear countries to become nuclear armed just before/during his first presidential term, and more recently incentivized more countries to get nuclear weapons by undermining NATO and putting American military assistance to traditional allies in doubt. The guy who called Putin “smart” multiple times as Russia launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and continued to undermine Ukraine and western allies during his two-year presidential campaign. The guy who criticized Biden for encouraging Netanyahu to show restraint during his military campaign in Gaza, said that Biden was anti-Israel and that Jewish Americans shouldn’t support Biden after Biden called for Netanyahu’s military to be less indiscriminate in their military offensive, and as President marketed a Gaza Riviera plan that had no Palestinian input and after which Netanyahu stepped up a campaign of civilian starvation and then a ground invasion. The guy who continues his administration’s campaign of blowing up foreign boats at sea with no attempt to present a clear legal justification and providing virtually no evidence that the boats presented a threat to the U.S. or its citizens. So yes, award him the Nobel Peace Prize — it would be perfectly appropriate for the Oppositeville world we live in.
Edit: Okay, just saw @DK:’s comment and am now convinced that trump should NOT actually be awarded the Nobel Prize.
@James Joyner:
Hopefully they’ve learned something in the past 30-50 years, from past mistakes.
Bush’s name should not even be mentioned in the same breath as Obama, re: warmongering. Bush’s bombings and war campaigns directly and indirectly led to hundreds of thousands if not millions of deaths. Obama’s drone strikes are not in the ballpark.
@James Joyner: all true, but Trump brings his special sauce to damper any consideration.
@Sleeping Dog:
How long in the future should one wait to declare it stuck? There was a ceasefire in place on 6 Oct 2023. How long had that one lasted?
How do threats to annex a neighboring nation, not to mention the neo-neo-colonialism in taking over Greenland and Panama, track with “peace”?
@Kathy: I think in MAGA world they call in peace through strength. Among other Peace Prize eligible acts like Trump disappearing migrants to domestic and foreign torture camps without due process — whereupon thousands of detainees have “gone missing.”
@James Joyner:
What Trump has done is to get Netanyahu to suspend – for now – his attack on Gaza City. If Hamas were still firing missiles into Israel there’d be no talk of a deal. If Hamas had missiles, they’d still be firing them. If they get their hands on missiles in the future, they will use them. How has Hamas been brought to surrender? By the ruthless application of Israeli power.
Put it this way: if I get into a bar fight and get my ass kicked, and I’m lying on the floor bloody and broken, without friends or supporters, and it’s absolutely clear that all I can do is keep getting my ass kicked, who determined the outcome? You when you show up and say, ‘that’s enough now’? Maybe to the extent that someone’s gottta hold the coats. But if the fight is ending it’s because I am on the floor bleeding, and the guy who beat me up is tired but capable of continuing to kick me in the balls. And if I try to get up off the floor, you’ll likely help him, not me.
Israel will start cheating on the pullback almost immediately to establish that it will not be bound. If it can target a Hamas leader in Gaza it will pull the trigger. For its part I would bet a dollar or two that Hamas is already working on tactics to subvert any international force, let alone the PA. Won’t you come into my parlor, said the spider to the fly.
This is a surrender for one side, a victory for the other, and I can only hope the deal will be signed aboard the USS Missouri. But I will note that @JohnSF, whose opinion I respect, as I do yours, James, is more optimistic than I am.
@DK: Obama had done literally nothing to earn the prize. The nomination period closed eleven days after he took office! The rationale given for the award? Obama had raised U.S. popularity!
The one relevant point to consider in this debate is that El Taco is on the Epstein files.
@James Joyner: Eh. The son of a African immigrant running the kind of campaign that could get himself seriously nominated for then elected to the vitally important and powerful presidentlcy of this country is a monumental acute civil rights achievement on its own accord. Even as a McCain voter more unimpressed by Obama than most, I could recognize the validity of that argument then. It’s even more clear now, in hindsight, after a decade of white supremacist backlash and backsliding.
Even so, doing absolutely nothing would qualify one more than acting as a racist, rapist, pedophilic, bomb-dropping, terrorism-inciting, migrant-torturing annexmonger like Trump.
Awarding the Nobel to Obama seemed to be an effort at influencing his future behavior. European governments seem to have settled into a pattern of blatantly flattering Trump in an effort to moderate his behavior. If the Nobel committee has analyzed the situation and think giving Trump a prize might moderate his behavior, it’d be worth a try.
Also, too, obligatory Tom Lehrer quote, ” Political satire became obsolete when Henry Kissinger was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.” It’s not like giving Tump a Nobel would tarnish the award much further.
@DK:
A good question, that I’ll answer with, if the felon were to receive the PP is should be in his post presidency and best if posthumous.
@Sleeping Dog:
The terms of the Nobel prize state no posthumous awards. I believe one or two have happened, but only because news of the death of the recipient reached the committee only after the award was made.
This may not apply to the Peace Prize. The limit on three people sharing a prize doesn’t apply to it, as organizations have received it.
But, really, giving El Taco a Peace Prize would be as reasonable as giving RFK Jr. one for physiology or medicine.
I am not seeing this as a great achievement. Just to take Vietnam for example, both sides were still capable of large scale conflict. An actual war was stopped. In Gaza there are few buildings left so there isn’t much left to destroy. Hamas has severely limited capabilities. In essence Hamas lost the war and terms are being “negotiated” ie Hamas gets a face saving capitulation since they cant do much anyway. If a peace had been negotiated 3 months into the war I could see a Nobel being in order. Also, note that this shifts a lot of the costs of monitoring Gaza onto other countries.
To sum it up, Israel bombed Gaza until it was no longer cost effective and Hamas was not a threat. Now they get to pull out and the rest of the world picks up the tab.
Steve
@gVOR10:
Obama’s Nobel was a condescending pat on the head from Europeans who thought we were growing up as a country. Of course they were wrong.
@steve222:
Bingo.
ETA: Much of the reconstruction work will be done by Israeli firms. Gaza has no useful port, no infrastructure, no overland access except by way of Israel and Egypt – and Egypt will skim off, what, 30%?
@James Joyner:
There may not be a Nobel Prize for Attempted Chemistry, but there is a long history of the Nobel Peace Prize being used aspirationally — either to highlight someone’s cause or to prod them along.
@Sleeping Dog:
I expect there will be cameras, guards, etc to discourage people from pissing on Trump’s grave.
@gVOR10:
If the Nobel committee has analyzed the situation and think giving Trump a prize might moderate his behavior,…
then I think the committee will be disappointed. As we’ve seen with news organizations giving trump protection money to presumably leave them alone, it has only emboldened him to criticize them further as he lauds the settlement over them as proof that they report fake news. A serious question from Jonathan Karl is met with, “Well, you lied and got caught and had to pay me.” If he were awarded the Nobel, he’d be constantly citing that as proof of his superior intellect, leadership, and negotiation skills, as well as a reason to give him deference at every turn.
@gVOR10:
@Eusebio:
He will only moderate his behavior when he dies.
How about Nobel Peace Prize Contingent Upon War Not Breaking Out Again For A Decade, Otherwise This Degrades To The Nobel Temporary Ceasefire Prize Which Is At Least Something?
A little wordy, but perhaps the Swedes can borrow some German word that means that.
Look, if Henry Kissinger can get a Nobel Peace Prize for ‘negotiating an end to the Vietnam War’ then Trump surely can be awarded the Peace Prize for whining and complaining incessantly that he deserves the Peace for falsely claiming that he’s ended 6 or 7 wars.
@Gustopher:
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
@gVOR10:
If he would accept it in exchange for permanently leaving office and moving to a remote island without Internet, we could give it to Trump tomorrow morning. If he’d agree to take all his kids with him, we could throw in an Oscar or a People’s Choice award.
@Michael Reynolds:
True, even Obama said as much about it.
Still, I can’t help hoping that whoever replaces Trump is immediately awarded a NPP…and Trump being so informed while a camera records his reaction.
Some years ago, Al Gore and the IPCC were awarded a Nobel “for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change”. The committee would look bloody foolish awarding another one to the man who has single-handedly wrecked international cooperation to “counteract such change” and labelled climate change itself a “hoax”.
The last ceasefire was broken by Israel. I hope this one is not. If Trump gets a Nobel for this next year for what Biden and co did not want to do, good for him for putting pressure on Israel to deal with the fact that they can’t defeat Palestinian life. Or, as they call it, Hamas.
As far as everything else goes, the Palestinian position is hopeless in that Gaza is rubble and the West Bank is a theocratic North Korea ruled by psychopathic goons. But the Israeli position is hopeless because their society is at its existential end. I can’t help but notice how old the happy Israelis are celebrating the return of the hostages and how young the Palestinians are in Gaza celebrating the ceasefire. The war may have reduced Gaza to nothing, but it destroyed Israel. The country spent two years waking up with the constant affirmation of being able to murder Palestinian children. I’m not sure how they will live without that in their lives.
Well, he didn’t get it. And it was awarded to a woman who worked to try and protect democracy domestically in her own country, which is quite a nice point, considering Trump deploys troops against his citizens.
@Michael Reynolds:
*blushes*
*bows*
I am, I’m afraid, an inveterate optimist.
Albeit, also, a rather cynical one.
The key to this is Israel has wrecked the Iranian position in the Levant, and effctively crushed Hamas.
Hamas will doubtless try t0 recover control in Gaza.
Or else just f@ck things up.
There are going to be some nasty operatives acting to prevent that, if this is going to work.
Who they may be is the real issue.
I’d vote for the Pakistan ISI.
If only on the basis that, lord knows, they need an outlet for their inclinations.