Thursday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Thursday, December 11, 2025
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43 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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BlueSky.
Former MLB player George Altman has passed away. He was 92. Altman played professionally in MLB, The Negro Leagues, and Japan which gave him a unique career. He was a dangerous hitter who twice played for the National League All-star team. Altman MLB playing days were too early for me to remember. I do know Altman well from my SOM baseball playing.
Three of the seasons I have finished, 1960-62, were Altman’s prime years. RIP
Here is a good explainer on the atmospheric rivers (this one is a Pineapple Express = warm tropical water) that is focused to my area near Seattle. Look at the picture of the plume of warm water aimed here (in the Twitter insert). https://komonews.com/news/local/pineapple-express-northwest-meteorologist-bomb-cyclones-was-flooding-atmospheric-riving-mit-scientists-927-hurricane-carolinas-mudslides-lowlands
This is a major plume of water 100-400 miles wide that just dumps like a fire hose. A similar storm pattern during the Civil War was aimed at California and the Central Valley was flooded for 6+ months (impacted funding of the Civil War for the Union – Gold) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862 ” The event dumped an equivalent of 10 feet (3.0 m) of precipitation in California, in the form of rain and snow, over a period of 43 days ” But no, this hasn’t happened before, must be Global Warming. Also see Southern California winter of 1968-89, and the Columbus Day Storm of 1962 in the PNW (typhoon) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbus_Day_storm_of_1962 Extreme weather events happen. This isn’t new. But apparently it is the worst ever (not).
A couple of thoughts on that tanker
Flags of Convenience. The Skipper was flying under a Guyanese flag. Guyana, Panama, and Liberia are very popular choices for FOC. Guyana is reporting that the Skipper wasn’t registered with them.
Lloyd’s Register or a similar company would have record of the Skipper’s history. Would Lloyd’s know who the Skipper’s owners or real Flag is? Maybe, maybe not. Ships can have its ownership through shell companies. It is a method for owners to remain anonymous and protect themselves legally.
Another thought- Who insured the Skipper? Owners of maritime shipping will want to protect their investments. Insurance may be of legal necessity. As you can tell I have a little knowledge* on this arcane subject matter but it is hardly complete or comprehensive.
*- Much of it emanating from my reading novels written by James Clavell, Stella Rimmington, Frederick Forsyth and others plus some research I did for my espionage book.
@Bill Jempty: As I understand these things, ownership of the oil would have been FOB some oil terminal in Venezuela, and that the tanker (and its owners) don’t own the oil, they’re just moving it. Given Trump’s, “Well, we’ll keep it, I guess” comment, I’m waiting to hear someone say, “You’re going to keep a million barrels of our oil?”. Part of me is hoping it turns out to be China saying it, with a back channel message to all of the AI companies saying, “Nice bubble you’ve got going there. Be a shame if TSMC couldn’t deliver your chips.”
Eric Berger at Ars Technica has a summary of what’s known about responding to the recent damage at the only Russian launch pad capable of sending missions to the ISS. Repair time is at least four months. SpaceX has agreed to move up their next two cargo flights. So far as I know, this will be the first time any cargo missions to the ISS have gone up early. Chalk up another win for having reuseable gear. Of cargo vessels that are certified, only Cargo Dragon is reusable. Biggest concern among the commenters seems to be that without the fuel that can only be delivered by the Russian Progress vessels, there are about to be problems with attitude control.
Politico reported yesterday:
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/10/us-seizes-venezuelan-oil-tanker-00685289
Although he rarely offers cogent thoughts, Trump’s childish, “I guess we get to keep it” response to the question of what happens to the stolen, er, confiscated, oil was especially revealing. It showed a guy who clearly is not in control, and possibly not even in the loop when it comes to what is being done in the name of the United States. Two things on the “don’t go there” list: 1) imagine the outrage if China was blowing up civilian boats and bullying Venezuela; and 2) if Joe Biden was incoherently babbling about what the US military was doing.
Barring something completely unexpected, later today the Indiana Senate will vote on whether or not to do a mid-decade redistricting. Last night we had the umpteenth incident of a swatting or bomb threat against a state senator’s home. Even the RWNJs here (which is to say, most electeds) aren’t trying to pin these threats on antifa; it’s clear these threats are coming from the President and his acolytes.
Much of the testimony yesterday came from Republican election clerks saying that they do not have enough time to prepare for an election under new maps, and that this will be a disaster. It was powerful, practical testimony that may give a lot of the undecideds the cover they need to vote ‘no.’
Senate Majority leader Rodric Bray says he’s a “no,” and until Tuesday he had been saying that the votes did not exist to pass maps. Tuesday and Wednesday his message has been “we’ll see.” Ominous, but could just be that now’s the time for shutting up.
Current Count:
22 Senators oppose redistricting
16 Senators approve of it
12 are undecided or not on the record
@Richard Gardner: My BIL mentioned the atmospheric river up there. It is a thing at times down here, too. With the same name, The Pineapple Express.
Good luck to you.
Now, as for the Columbus Day Storm, boy do I remember that. I was 6 years old. We were without power for 3 days I think. Huddled by the fireplace. Dad had a generator from somewhere that ran sometimes and did something, but we didn’t get to watch the TV.
I could still walk through our woods and point at the trees that got knocked down by it. (Except that it isn’t our woods any more.) Most of the woods is still there, interestingly.
NYT has another installment of their series on military procurement. They tell the sad story of the Constellation class frigate program. “Over the past 35 years the Navy has commissioned more than half a dozen new kinds of ships, from small combat vessels to large destroyers. Nearly all of them have flopped, running billions of dollars over budget and years behind schedule and failing to perform as promised, leaving the military reliant on a fleet designed largely in the Reagan era.” So they decided on a safe plan, build an existing Italian frigate design. 5 years, 4,000 changes, and 3.5 billion dollars later they’re cancelling the 20 ship program and will take the two ships under construction whenever they’re finally completed. Someone unfamiliar with military contracting might think the builder would resist change orders. But they’re the whole game. Prime contractors will often bid a project at a loss, knowing they’ll make it up on changes. The project award is competitive, they have a monopoly on changes.
The Times goes on with a nice graphic on how 51 major military contractors in 1990 merged into 5. Their expertise isn’t in designing and building weapons, their expertise is in profiting on weapons contracts. The Times seems to feel the answer is encouraging innovative startups. That’s probably a very good idea for drones, there are probably Ukrainian companies that would love to have a U. S. partner. It might even work for hypersonic cruise missiles. But I have trouble seeing a startup building an aircraft carrier.
I like Joe Burrows, the Bengals QB. I saw him talk to ESPN yesterday, and he said that he was not having fun with his team and their losing record. He questioned his purpose, saying if you’re not having fun, what’s the point? Joe, you’re being paid $55 million in a world where the median income per household is $84,000. You’re getting the income of 655 families. You need counseling for your ahedonia. In 1971, Bart Starr got $100,000 which is $357,315 corrected for inflation. Bart seemed happy. Joe, figure out the happiness problem.
@Richard Gardner: I am loving our atmospheric river. Best weather of the year — warm, wet, windy active weather that just makes you feel alive when you’re out in it.
Probably annoying if you’re flooded out by it.
One good thing about Hell Week. Today’s the office Xmas part, and there’s no way in hell, or Hell Week, any of us can make it.
For some reason others are upset about this…
It used to be held in the parking lot. there was no escaping it then. We still managed to attend when they moved it to a nearby restaurant, which was in 2017. From 2019 on, I haven’t made it, though others in the department did sometimes. Since 2021, when it was moved to some event site out of town, none of us has managed to go.
That year the boss and a manager put together a department party. It was supposed to be a meal at a nice restaurant in Toluca, and then on to the manager’s home also in Toluca. I declined to go, because the trump pandemic still raged, regardless of vaccination and boosters.
Apparently it proved so difficult to arrange, that no one’s tried to do it again.
Whew!
@gVOR10:
Maybe you’re thinking about it wrong. A startup isn’t going to want to deliver an aircraft carrier, they’re going to want to sell an aircraft carrier subscription, or aircraft carrying as a service.
It’s the Uber of Air Superiority.
Given how much the Ukraine war has changed modern war fighting with drones, I’m actually wondering if aircraft carriers are a vestige of an earlier era that will soon be replaced by something smaller, cheaper and more disposable.
I’m not saying I’m looking forward to the next major war, but I’m really curious.
You’ll have to wait until 2026 for a video of Mickey and Goofy snorting coke and making out.
@gVOR10: I have long said that part of the demise of the US military as a global conventional superpower is that the weapons platforms will simply be too expensive.
@Gustopher:
“I’m not saying I’m looking forward to the next major war, but I’m really curious.”
Your curiosity could be satisfied sooner than you’d like. Between Europe urging members to be ready for war on home turf and US cutting off oil supplies to China while threatening regime change in Venezuela and generally putting the whole fucking world on edge …boom.
Two hours into the Senate’s session and we have the first person to come off the fence. Senator Goode, Terre Haute, comes out in opposition to redistricting.
@Gustopher:
Carriers generally operate in “blue water” well outside the range of drones, with a surrounding air-defence envelope.
Anti-drone defence may require reinforcing that defence screen, but the overall “carrier battle group” concept still seems viable.
Though a new type of smaller cheaper “drone carrier” might well soon be part of the mix, for inshore operations, ASW, and drone-vs-drone.
Open Letter To All Vintners:
I love the cork. Popping a cork is my closest thing to a religious ritual.
But if you’re going to use plastic capsules that cannot be properly cut with a waiter’s wine tool, go to screw tops.
@Neil Hudelson: I read Goode’s rationale for voting no on redistricting. He spoke of aggressive “outside pressure”. Gotta hand it to him, he’s one of the few gop pols left with balls in situ.
@gVOR10:
The eternal story of defence procurement, especially in the US.
Programme starts, design is chosen, then instead of leaving damn well alone and building out ASAP, the entire DoD and service offices just can’t resist mucking about with the specs.
So the cost goes through the roof, and the progamme gets delayed to make changes and spread the increased cost, and the emerging production bottlenecks, and the delays give time for the military to add yet more new “ooh, shiny! to the thing.
And iterate …
@Michael Reynolds:
Old-fasioned wax-top seals are often amusing.
For “bloody annoying” values of amusing. 😉
Most often found on some vintage port or madeira, these days.
@Gustopher:
I can just picture a one month free trial, with the $2 billion monthly subscription starting on the second month. Better win the war fast.
@Neil Hudelson: @becca:
His speech did two other things:
-Remind rural legs that they’ll be competing against Indianapolis interests for the attention of their congresscritter now.
-Point out that the small power centers a lot of these pols have spent considerable time building up will be split in two.
He’s a smart one.
@JohnSF:
Also Makers Mark and Knob Creek. One more reason to prefer Four Roses Single Barrel. Speaking of which, I have located a bottle of same here in Portugal. It’s to be delivered tomorrow, as well as a bottle of Knob for Manhattans and Boulevardiers. But Maraschino cherries are apparently unknown, so I’m compensating with a bare half shot of the local cherry liqueur, Ginjinha.
It’s not easy being a refugee.
@JohnSF: I think Air Carrier Groups will be made redundant before they become vulnerable.
They’re very expensive.
And it’s just a matter of time before drones have the range and are more autonomous*. At which point they will become a significant nuisance to aircraft carriers if not a threat to them. (A threat to their operations, rather than likely to sink them, perhaps). Having a target sitting around in open water is going to make things easier for autonomous drones than being nestled in woods or something, and defenses can be overwhelmed with numbers. And maybe a few cruise ships get attacked by accident.
@JohnSF:
The US Navy is paying Boeing real money to build refueling drones that can be launched from carriers. While lots of reasons are offered, everyone assumes the real reason is to allow carriers to stand even farther offshore from peer opponents. Given the testing and deployment plans, the question is of course, “Can China force US carriers to stay far enough away to be ineffective when the Taiwan blockade is announced?”
@becca:
We have had First Sea Lord Jenkins remarks on the situation in the North Atlantic
Today NATO Secretary General Rutte:
Chancellor Merz:
All told, looks like “peace on Earth, and goodwill to all men” is not on special offer at the grocery this year.
Though fortunately Trump does not seem to be mucking about directly with oil shipments to China.
Given that the tanker concerned seems to be part of the “dark fleet”, I have to confess that its seizure troubles me rather litle.
It’s not even clear who has legal jurisdiction over it, or actually owns it.
It was flying a Guyana flag, but Guyana has stated it’s not on their books.
It also seems to have been “spoofing” its location tracking.
@Gustopher:
Funny, and true. And the service will have to be updated daily and crash weekly.
The Navy did a large scale study to determine A/C carrier requirements going into the 21st century. I’ve been told they decided what you said, smaller, cheaper, conventionally powered, and more numerous. The nuclear people said they wouldn’t give up any of their money to a non-nuclear ship. At that point someone should have either ordered them to give up money or said eff it, we’ll find the money to build what we need, not what the nuclear lobby wants.
Drones are probably something the task force can handle. I’ve seen some talk of Chinese anti-carrier intermediate range ballistic missiles.
@Gustopher:
The sea is big.
Absent satellite tracking, locating a CBG in blue water is a non-trivial exercise.
Of course, longer range autonomous drones will be more of a threat; but then, so are manned aircraft with stand-off missiles.
@Michael Cain:
China is a much more potent threat than any other potential adversary.
One worrying development in China rebuilding the old runways on Yap Island.
Thsis fits with other Chinese attempts to secure influence in the “second island chain” and Melanesia.
The US seems curiously passive about this, and idiotically cutting aid and development operations, whereas alarm bells are ringing in Canberra.
PLAN drone bases along those islands could be very dangerous indeed, given that China does have satellite tracking capabilities.
@Michael Reynolds:
iirc US maraschino cherries are banned in the EU under chemical weapons protocols 😉
Why not just substitute an actual cherry? lol
Indiana Senate votes down mid decade redistricting.
This may be the high water mark for the redistricting project.
@JohnSF:
Sure, but they’ve been illegally blowing up boats for months, so the assumption was they’d now illegally seized an oil tanker.
The so-called administration might have announced why they seized it, and that they had a warrant, and that law enforcement was involved. Of course, if they were competent, they wouldn’t be a so-called administration.
@JohnSF:
“Absent satellite tracking”. I wonder what the relative state is of our and Chinese anti-satellite weapons.
@Kathy:
That’s the thing.
Once you start doing plainly illegal and immoral things, you lose the benefit of the doubt with many people when you do something that is arguably justifiable.
I suppose we should count our blessings that the morons in Washingon didn’t sink the tanker and machine-gun any survivors in the water.
Also, the patented Trump mixture of kayfabe swagger and cocky idiocy when making announcements on such things tends to set most reasonable peoples teeth on edge.
@gVOR10:
Ah, now there’s a question to which we may regret finding an answer.
Kessler syndrome.
@Neil Hudelson: a third refusal by a grand jury to indict Letitia James and now this in Indiana gives me hopium.
@Neil Hudelson:
I find it interesting more republicans voted against it than for it.
@becca:
Imagine how angry and frustrated all those ham sandwiches feel right now.
Dick van Dyke is 100 years old today.
Am I the only person who wishes Tarantino would just go away and count his money?
I’ve no idea who uses A4 paper. I think it’s common in Europe. I do know we’ve never used it at the office. Not once. Further, about 99% of all we print is letter size. I also buy office supplies, and now and then I browse while at the store. I don’t think I’ve seen A4 paper for sale. Letter, tons. Legal size, a fair bit. Half letter size cards, some. Several label sizes, all in letter sized sheets, lots.
A4, not that I can recall
So, why would the printer be configured by default to A4 and be hard to change?
A major feature of a nuclear aircraft carrier is that it can carry much more aviation fuel since it doesn’t have to carry propulsion fuel oil (old days with steam plant) or today jet fuel (jet turbines). A non-nuclear ship has to be always followed around by an oiler supply ship (AO), getting refueled every couple of days. Take out the oiler and the carrier is a sitting duck..