Another Day, Another Set of Confusing Statements from Trump on the War in Iran (Updated)
Maybe talks, but maybe not?
After having threatened to attack Iran’s power plants, Trump announced via social media (i.e., the best way for the heads of state of superpowers to communicate) that he was holding off his threat and had been in talks with the Iranians.
Here is the announcement, which is obviously very serious and important because it is in all caps, not unlike the way the great statesmen of old would issue their wise discourses on matters of war and peace.
Meanwhile, the BBC reports: Iranian sources ‘deny negotiations’ with US.
Iran’s Student News Network (SNN), which is an Iranian news agency linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) paramilitary Basij Student Organisation, has quoted an “informed source” in the country’s foreign ministry saying they “deny negotiations” and that Strait of Hormuz is “closed to aggressors”.
The source has not been named.
Before that, the IRGC-affiliated Fars and Tasnim news agencies had reported similar sentiments from unnamed officials.
Fars said there has been “no direct or indirect contact with Trump” and that he had “backed down”. Meanwhile, Tasnim reported that “no negotiations” are taking place.
While perhaps this is a case of an inaccurate report from Iran, I will hold out the possibility that Trump has, as Trump is prone to do, issued his maximalist threat and now is going to pretend like the threat was effective so he can climb down from his stated position, at least for now.
Indeed, our best hope at the moment is that Trump does whatever mental and rhetorical gymnastics are needed to find his TACO ramp, and then we will have to just deal with whatever damage has been done to the global economy and local stability, rather than deal with even more damage.
And meanwhile, the award for understated headline of the day goes to the Associated Press for the following: Trump’s changing course on Strait of Hormuz strategy raises questions about US war preparation.
Update: Well, now I feel bad about being so snarky, as the following clears it all up.
The transcription:
TRUMP: It would be jointly controlled.
Q: By whom?
TRUMP: Maybe me. Me and the Ayatollah, whoever the Ayatollah is! There’ll also be a form of a very serious form of a regime change!
“Now in all fairness, everybody’s been killed from the regime. They’re really starting off. There’s automatically a regime change. But we’re dealing with some people that I find to be very reasonable, very solid.”
“The people within know who they are. They’re very respected. And maybe one of them will be exactly what we’re looking for.”
“Look at Venezuela, how well that’s working out.”
His simplistic Venezuela assumptions are showing.
And if the duo of Witkoff and Kushner is involved, no doubt peace is almost at hand (link).
My take is that he talks tough because he thinks it makes him look good, then backpedals because that seems to sooth the markets he sent into a tizzy by talking tough.
What a shock he made his first announcement just in time to send market futures rising this morning. Wonder which members of the cabinet sold oil and stocks at the weekend high and then rebought early today? Maybe all of them?
IIRC correctly he has claimed before that there were negotiations under way and nothing happened. So this is another thing where you hope he is correct but he lies so much I am doubtful. What I expect is that in 5 days he will announce that Iran has backed out of “the deal” and he will just ignore the fact that he made threats against their power plants. He made that threat on a Saturday and it was probably something he saw suggested on Fox or somewhere similar but the stock market reaction plus negative responses from our military plus the Gulf countries that would have faced the response.
Steve
“Thank you for your attention to this matter!” He sounds like an employer reminding employees to wash their hands when leaving the restroom.
@wr:
If nothing else, the man knows how to manipulate the market and make money for his friends. I guarantee some stories will come out about “strange betting” on Polymarket and Kalshi regarding the TACO.
The last time he said his real estate developers, er, envoys, were making good progress in talks with Iran, the bombs started falling within hours, and Whiskey Pete cancelled his Viagra order. And the colloquy about him and “an Ayatollah to be named later” jointly controlling Hormuz sounds like the seeds of a comedy sketch.