Backyard Repudiation
Democrat wins special election to represent Trump's home district in Florida.
Via NBC News: Democrat flips Republican-held Florida state House district that includes Trump’s Mar-a-Lago.
Democrat Emily Gregory won a special election Tuesday for the Florida state House district that includes President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort, flipping the seat from Republican control, The Associated Press projects.
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Gregory beat Republican Jon Maples, whom Trump endorsed, in the race for a seat that has been vacant since August, when Mike Caruso resigned from the Legislature and was appointed Palm Beach County clerk.
Gregory had 51% of the vote to 49% for Maples with all precincts reporting.
Trump endorsed Maples and carried the district himself by 11 points in 2024.
Here’s a map of District 87 via Ballotpedia. Mar-a-Lago is roughly in the middle of the map on the coast.
Prior to the 2020 redistricting cycle, the district was heavily Democratic. But in both 2022 and 2024, the Republican candidate won by roughly 19 points.
This is yet another special election that suggests some combination of the following: voters are upset with the party in power, Democrats are motivated to vote, and Republicans are demotivated to vote.
While the normal caveat that such outcomes are to be taken with some modicum of caution remains in place, this is yet another data point that suggests the Republicans are in trouble for the coming midterms (and would be in even more trouble if our electoral system was actually competitive).
The seat was vacant because the incumbent, Mike Caruso, was appointed to a new gig. As per the Florida Phoenix: DeSantis appoints loyalist Rep. Mike Caruso as Palm Beach County court clerk.
To add insult to injury, the Democrats also flipped a Florida state senate seat.
In the only state Senate election on the ballot, Democrat Brian Nathan, a Navy veteran, union organizer, and first-time candidate, shocked Republican state Rep. Josie Tomkow in the Hillsborough County Senate District 14 contest, winning by just 408 votes, taking 50.25% of the vote to Tomkow 49.75%.
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Tomkow had a huge fundraising lead over Nathan and was a heavy favorite in a district that Collins won by 10 points in 2022, the last time the seat was on the ballot. Donald Trump won it by more than 7 points in 2024.
