Different Forms of Trump Apologist Copium
Remember Trump cannot fail, he can only be failed!
Ahead of another terrible day for international trading markets (and a “Black Monday” for US Markets) and the dollar’s value, there had been some hope that President Trump might reverse course on his tariffs. Or at the very least, some vocal supporters suggested that he tap the brakes (more on that below). However, at this moment, all the signals he is sending suggest it’s full steam ahead. This morning he posted the following to his Truth Social account:
Oil prices are down, interest rates are down (the slow moving Fed should cut rates!), food prices are down, there is NO INFLATION, and the long time abused USA is bringing in Billions of Dollars a week from the abusing countries on Tariffs that are already in place. This is despite the fact that the biggest abuser of them all, China, whose markets are crashing, just raised its Tariffs by 34%, on top of its long term ridiculously high Tariffs (Plus!), not acknowledging my warning for abusing countries not to retaliate. They’ve made enough, for decades, taking advantage of the Good OL’ USA! Our past “leaders” are to blame for allowing this, and so much else, to happen to our Country. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! Donald Trump Truth Social 04/07/25 06:49 AM [source]
Unless he blinks, which seems increasingly unlikely, we’re in for another wild ride today. So, I wanted to survey how Trump apologists are coping with this news. Like most human experiences, there’s a range of reactions.
Cope 1: The Full Circle
People often suggest that when you go far enough to one side, you end up on the other. Paid Russian stooge Tim Pool is an excellent example of this. The “dissolusioned liberal” has been a popular voice on the Alt Right for quite a while. His take: the President has done us a service by doing what the Left could not:
Personal wealth accumulation appears to now be “bad” on the Right. Weird that simultaneously the Trump administration is pushing for upper bracket tax cuts on individual wealth.
Cope 2. The 180
For those not ready to go full Pool, there’s the idea that it’s time to deal with temporary inconvenience to reach a bright future. Also, there’s a hint of “personal wealth accumulation is bad” in this too:
What makes this a 180 is that folks like Johnson spent the last few years complaining about the loss of… wait for it… money through inflation under the Biden administration. See this example of a post from Johnson from just a few months ago:
Or even further back where he was using high prices to… sell gold:
BTW, it’s now estimated that if all the tariffs stay at the promised rates they will lower a middle-income household’s family’s post-tax income any where from $1,700 to $3,800 a year (most likely more if they need to buy a major household appliance or car).
Ben Dreyfuss sums up the conflict at the heart of all 180’s really well in this x/eet:
Or, for my fellow ADHD travellers, here’s that in meme version:
Cope 3. The “Cmon”
As we have seen in comments here at OTB and other places, some folks are trying to use Bidenisms to not address criticsm:
’nuff said.
Cope 4. The Hedge
In this case, you acknowledge that things could go wrong (though defining “wrong” in the most extreme way possible) while hoping things go right. This allows you to say “I never said this WOULD work. I said it COULD work! And at least he did something….” See this x/eet from a noted racist and sexist err… I mean nativist galaxy brain.
Cope 5. The “I’ve lost control of my monster but maybe I can talk it down”
It’s pretty self-explanatory, and it’s something to watch its sub-phases play out across a range of x/eets and steps. In this case, we’ll go to one of Trump’s biggest fans from the world of finance (and in particular investments), Bill Ackman.
Step 1 is reasoning (Friday afternoon):
One would have to imagine that President @realDonaldTrump’s phone has been ringing off the hook. The practical reality is that there is insufficient time for him to make deals before the tariffs are scheduled to take effect.
I would therefore not be surprised to wake up Monday with an announcement from the President that he was postponing the implementation of the tariffs to give him time to make deals. President Trump has gotten the world’s and our trading partners’ attention and elevated the importance of resolving an unfair tariff regime that has harmed American workers and decimated our industrial base over many decades.
This is a critically important issue that needs to be resolved, and we finally have a president committed to getting this done. The problem, however, can’t be resolved in days, so why wouldn’t a pause make sense to give the president time to properly resolve this critical issue and to allow companies large and small the time to prepare for changes in their supply chains?
The risk of not doing so is that the massive increase in uncertainty drives the economy into a recession, potentially a severe one. One thing is for sure. Monday will be one of the more interesting days in our country’s economic history. [source]
This features a great mix of both praise (that the president is tackling an important issue) and reasoning (the timeline is too soon). Who set those timelines, Bill?
Step 2 is pleading mixed with praise and hedging (Sunday Afternoon):
The country is 100% behind the president on fixing a global system of tariffs that has disadvantaged the country. But, business is a confidence game and confidence depends on trust.
President @realDonaldTrump has elevated the tariff issue to the most important geopolitical issue in the world, and he has gotten everyone’s attention. So far, so good.
And yes, other nations have taken advantage of the U.S. by protecting their home industries at the expense of millions of our jobs and economic growth in our country.
But, by placing massive and disproportionate tariffs on our friends and our enemies alike and thereby launching a global economic war against the whole world at once, we are in the process of destroying confidence in our country as a trading partner, as a place to do business, and as a market to invest capital.
The president has an opportunity to call a 90-day time out, negotiate and resolve unfair asymmetric tariff deals, and induce trillions of dollars of new investment in our country.
If, on the other hand, on April 9th we launch economic nuclear war on every country in the world, business investment will grind to a halt, consumers will close their wallets and pocket books, and we will severely damage our reputation with the rest of the world that will take years and potentially decades to rehabilitate.
What CEO and what board of directors will be comfortable making large, long-term, economic commitments in our country in the middle of an economic nuclear war?
I don’t know of one who will do so.
When markets crash, new investment stops, consumers stop spending money, and businesses have no choice but to curtail investment and fire workers.
And it is not just the big companies that will suffer. Small and medium size businesses and entrepreneurs will experience much greater pain. Almost no business can pass through an overnight massive increase in costs to their customers. And that’s true even if they have no debt, and, unfortunately, there is a massive amount of leverage in the system.
Business is a confidence game. The president is losing the confidence of business leaders around the globe. The consequences for our country and the millions of our citizens who have supported the president — in particular low-income consumers who are already under a huge amount of economic stress — are going to be severely negative. This is not what we voted for.
The President has an opportunity on Monday to call a time out and have the time to execute on fixing an unfair tariff system.
Alternatively, we are heading for a self-induced, economic nuclear winter, and we should start hunkering down. May cooler heads prevail. [source]
He’s suddenly realizing that despite his praise (we’re 100% behind you Mr Trump) he doesn’t have control over this particular monster.
Stage 3: Find someone to blame (Sunday Night).
Remember Trump cannot fail, he can only be failed. So this has to be someone else’s fault.
Stage 4: Get a call from the White House (Monday morning).
It was unfair of me to lash out at @howardlutnick. I don’t think he is pursuing his self interest. I am sure he is doing the best he can for the country while representing the President as Commerce Secretary. It is not an easy job and we don’t know how the sausage was made.
I am just frustrated watching what I believe to be a major policy error occur after our country and the president have been making huge economic progress that is now at risk due to the tariffs.
I would love to be proven wrong and watch this approach to tariffs and/or their resolution be enormously beneficial to our country and the global economy. [source]
Again, ’nuff said on this one.
Stage 5: Sad acceptance while emphasizing that Trump cannot fail, he can only be failed (Monday morning).
The formula used by the administration to calculate tariffs made other nations’ tariffs appear four times larger than they actually are.
President @realDonaldTrump is not an economist and therefore relies on his advisors to do these calculations so he can determine policy.
The global economy is being taken down because of bad math.
This short piece by @AEIexplains it succinctly. A must read. https://www.aei.org/economics/president-trumps-tariff-formula-makes-no-economic-sense-its-also-based-on-an-error/
The President’s advisors need to acknowledge their error before April 9th and make a course correction before the President makes a big mistake based on bad math. [source]
As with the first term, it’s always the advisors who are at fault, not the guy that hired them. Funny how that works.
Cope 6: The dip until things get better
Not buy the dip mind you–just ghost your online presence. There’s the subtle way–see for example Elon Musk’s lack of engagement on this topic other than starting a flame war with Peter Navaro. Or just fully disappear like our own resident apologists. Let me be clear that I’m not asking them to post defenses (because we know they already don’t have any).
I realized that some folks hope they’ve given up. Based on previous history, I just can’t believe that. I expect that when things turn around, they will be back to pwn us libs. Here’s hoping they at least have the good grace to adopt new names to claim they never supported Trump or the tariffs and how things would have been economically worse under Harris.
Cope 7: Hear what you want to hear and disregard the rest (h/t to Paul Simon)
The final cope is best exemplified by the X/tter account Thomas Sowell Quotes, @ThomasSowell. The account announces: I’m not Thomas Sowell, but I share his quotes and key topics in news & politics. There is you’ll note a major key topic in news and politics at the moment: the tariffs. So of course he’ll go to a noted conservative academic for their thoughts… right?
Oh… huh. It’s not like Thomas Sowell has publicly discussed Trump’s current tariff plans in the last few days, right?
Weird… Browsing the feed, I see recent quotes from Sowell on race- and gender-based issues, not to mention why we all should be anti-union, but somehow, nothing about tariffs (or other economic topics). It’s weird how that works.
Whelp, that’s all we have for Trump apologists. As far as the rest of us, beyond sadness, at the moment our best copium is Black Humor, hence this post and one last X/eet from Stock Broker Eddy Elfenbein:
Stay safe out there y’all!
Update: I also need to acknowledge Trump’s own strategy for coping–negging his supporters. He posted this 30 minutes into the market crash:
Also, I’m sure everyone will be relieved to know that during this market crash, he has his eyes on the prize:
EXCITING!!!
Also those hopes of moderation that caused a momentary rally? Nope. Not happening:
(Yes, I will write about how a blue check social media post just caused a dead cat bounce… eventually).
An absolutely exemplary post, Matt. Thanks.
Funny how frequently religion and right-wing-crank-economics all want desperately to believe One True Benevolent Daddy will fix things. And basically 100% of the time, each pesky human they put in that role… somehow keeps demonstrating how not benevolent they are.
It’s almost like a balance of powers between groups in productive tension and equally buying into their shared role in the system is the only way a collection of humans can do anything productive.
For those with an interest in Tim Pool’s credibility as a political analyst.
https://x.com/TimPoolClips/status/1325191294734331906
As always, Matt, thanks. Unfortunately, the apologists remain convinced (along with the maga masses and backdoor bigots) that the only way up is by standing upon the shoulders of another drowning sailor.
@Michael Reynolds:
Thank you sir! That means a lot and today is a day where I really needed to hear that.
@Flat Earth Luddite:
One of our locals, JKB or Connor I think, likes to accuse other commenters of having TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome). I’ve determined I suffer more from TADS (Trump Apologist Derangement Syndrome).
I agree, a very nice round-up. As a practical way to understand Trump supporters I still think it’s always best to think of them as a cult (of personality). As you note, that means he cannot fail, he can only be failed. That has created a whole legion of people always available to interpret Trump speak and try to sane wash what he says. Very few people expected to see tariffs this large and it has had immediate negative effects with more coming down the line. That means the cult influencers are scrambling to find ways to explain that will have it make sense to the masses. I think they are in the stage of just flinging sh%t against the wall and seeing what sticks. They likely whittle it down to 2 or 3 explanations in a week or two.
In the case of Ackman, I guess he still wants to make money and feels like he needs to retain some credibility. He is only a partially true believer as he seemed to believe the tariffs were mostly a threat and Trump is a great deal maker so Trump would negotiate great deals everywhere and Ackman would make lots of money. Now he has made it clear that he understands that high tariffs are bad for our economy and the rest of the world as he tries to hold onto some credibility.
Steve
The actual headline is Trump allies turning on him on this issue, more than anything in his second term.
@Scott F.:
Yes, they’re certainly making ME suffer, their drivle being unavoidable. Oh, the pain, the nausea!
@Fortune: I would hedge that a bit more. Ackman toying with turning against curious.
@Fortune:
But have they really turned? And which ones? The closest we get to here is Bill Ackman and he seems to put all the blame at the feet of Trump’s advisors and not Trump. In fact, he’s very careful not to lay any of this on Trump.
The rest of those supporters (Pool, Johnson, and many, many others) seem to be on board with these policies at least publicly (and are twisting themselves in knots).
I’ve seen a couple lines of apologia, and I think one of them you’ve missed above: If you look back far enough, the most recent events are basically invisible. People are posting 20-year timelines of the DJIA and saying, “You would have made a ton of money investing in 2005! What’s a few percent off the top?” (Ignoring, of course, that if you could have made Large% and instead you made 0.8*Large% and retired, your actual cash flow is massively altered.) Or they look back to the first Trump years and say, “See, it’s worth more now than it was when he left office!” Ignoring, of course, that in 4 years we’ve seen a mix of a regular volume of inflation and, for at least one year, 3x that. Wonder if your dollar goes as far today as it did 4 years ago…
The other one that I’ve seen less frequently is the assertion that “it was a bubble anyway” and “America was living on a borrowed economy” driven by “The Fed.” No evidence is ever given for these, just a rough sketch of how bubbles are bad (they typically are) and we were headed for a collapse so the tariffs aren’t the problem, it’s those bean-counters at The Fed.
The overwhelming push, though, is for the excruciating hand-waving of “America was being cheated and this will level the playing field.” There is no evidence presented for any part of this unhinged assertion. “America” – you know, as a whole, because these are people who grasp the Entirety of American Business in some fundamental way – was being “cheated” – don’t ask how, but everybody was doing it and profiting off us, which must be why we were the poorest nation on earth. It is also never said how this would possibly level the playing field, just that it does. Don’t ask for specifics, there are none to be had.
It will be interesting what happens to the economy when Congress passes the $7 trillion tax cut. Apparently, the House just cleared the most recent logjam and they’re ready to take up the budget now that the Senate passed its version without any Democrats.
Great post Matt.
Back in the first Trump term, I was always skeptical of the idea that the Trump cult was all that big or substantially different from normal extreme partisanship, but now the evidence is undeniable. I should have bought Kool-Aid stock.
I always thought the Felon Derangement Syndrome means one needs to be deranged to believe there’s anything worthwhile to the felon.
@Matt Bernius: Look at what Musk has said. Have you ever heard a member of an administration say anything like that before? In conservative media, National Review and The Daily Wire are strongly anti-tariff. Republican members of Congress have been criticizing the tariffs and starting to move against them – it’s been less than a week, so not much movement so far, but you’ve got Cruz, Kennedy, Grassley, and Paul already criticizing them.
As for Tim Pool, he’s left of center but pro-Trump. He’s been making fun of the Democrats as the party of the rich for a long time. He’s also talked about the definite short-term and potential long-term damage of tariffs.
@Fortune:
WRT to Musks, I haven’t seen him really go after the policy–maybe I missed something. He expresses the desire to reach a 0-tariff agreement with Europe, but I’m not sure that’s directly opposed to the current state of affairs. All he’s done is go after Navarro and even then it’s not publicly about the tariffs.
https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tariff-rift-peter-navarro-getting-ugly-2025-4
Calling him “left of center” feels like a bit of a dodge here. Ultimately, he’s a populist and nativist. Perhaps you can find some things I should listen to that show how he’s turning against Trump. Or any issues where there is any significant daylight between him and Trump.
Beyond that, given his influence is almost exclusively on the alt right, it seems hard to call him a progressive or liberal in any meaningful way. I say that as someone who is left of center.
[Addendum] What I mean to say is that while Pool may couch some of his positions in the language of the left, the actual expression of them in action is very much pro-MAGA and of the Trumpian-right.
A perfect example of this is that tweets “Just ban all imports” while continuing to sell t-shirts that are manufactured overseas in sweat shops and just finished (printed) here in the US. https://x.com/dieworkwear/status/1908524819139965303
Paul Campos at LGM does a good job of addressing the question – Donald Trump:
A. Stupid
B. Evil
C. Crazy.
And clearly answers “yes”. He quotes a psychologist of his acquaintance,
I’ve seen mentions that some leveraged hedge funds are the current shadow banking system and margin calls are already going out.
@gVOR10:
There is a D. that is inadequately acknowledged: senile dementia.
Some people talk about this as *early* stage dementia, but that is wrong. *Early* was years ago, he is way past that now. Look how limited his vocabulary has shrunk to: if he approves it’s “beautiful,” disapproval gets “nasty.”
Demented people become as they have always been except more so, which is why his behavior is getting ever more extreme. And his initiatives, ever more extreme.
And it’s really hard to explain anything to someone so severely cognitively impaired.
@gVOR10:
Sadism is also part of being “malignant narcissist,” as an extreme example of “malignant narcissist” he is also a big cruelty fan.
@gVOR10:
Good for LGM. How long have I been insisting that Trump is a psychopath? Not just a sociopath or a narcissist because those diagnoses don’t involve cruelty as a necessary feature. And in another thread @Andy: acknowledges that he underestimated the personality cult of it.
So, yes, he is a psychopath and yes, MAGA is a cult. How did I know he was a psychopath and a cult leader? By not being an engineer, lawyer or academic, but a humble* writer. You want something engineered, lawyered or studied, I am not your guy. Brain not do those things. But I know a psychopath when I see one, and I know a cult of personality when I see one.
I promise to keep this to a minimum, but I’m allowing myself one big, I TOLD YOU SO.
And I’m also right about Trump and Putin.
*Perhaps not the first word people would apply to me.
Yes, this is a really good post.
The Ackman “I’ve lost control of my monster but maybe I can talk it down” cope is quite a ride. For one thing, brutally torching Lutnick Sunday evening and then contritely falling back in line the next morning. I can only hope the taste of that sh*t sandwich lingers as long as he remains an apologist.
Now something odd about Ackman’s posts…he twice said “business is a confidence game.” Is it possible he’s unaware of the common pop culture meaning of confidence game? Or is he trying to get the attention of Don the Con, since confidence game is the term from which that particular nickname is derived?
@Matt Bernius: Tim Pool was more Occupy than MAGA.
@gVOR10: I am going to push back on “stupid”. I know a lot about stupid. I went to school, K-12 with stupid. I just had a class reunion with stupid (and a lot of smart folks, too!). Of course the biggest stupids didn’t show up because they failed to graduate. That didn’t keep me from spending 12 years of my life with them, though.
Trump is average intelligence. Not smart, but not colossally stupid. What he is, is ignorant (I’m not arguing against either evil or mentally ill.). He is a textbook example of Dunning-Krueger. He doesn’t know enough to know he’s wrong. And he is so used to dominating people and quashing dissent, that he can’t ever learn that he’s wrong. I see this all the time in all kinds of people, most of whom can’t possibly be wrong. They are just arrogant.
Learning something requires humility. He don’t have it. But many conflate “ignorant” and “stupid” so there’s that.
@Fortune:
Saying that in 2011 (over a decade ago) Tim Pool was MORE into the Occupy movement than today’s Tim Pool is into (and financially dependant on) the MAGA movement may be true.
And its also not an argument that today’s Tim Pool is left of center.
2019 Matt’s weekly rate was far closer to my preferred competition weight cut-off (160lbs) than my current weight (which is floating just before 180). That doesn’t negate the fact that today, I am much more out of shape than I was 6 years ago.
Serious question: What drives you to argue that Tim Pool, despite all of his public actions, is left of center? What about acknowledging that he’s a Trump supporter, or that his actions have aligned him with the right, is hard for you to do?
@Matt Bernius:
He supports universal health care and abortion. He was an anti-corporation Bernie bro. He identifies as left of center.
I already acknowledged it. I said “As for Tim Pool, he’s left of center but pro-Trump.” What about reading the whole sentence is hard for you to do? (Yeah that was snippy but come on.)
If Tim Pool can convince more MAGA to want to eat the rich, good. You go, big guy! I wish you all the success in the world. Can we team up on closing the carried interest loophole? Can we raise the top marginal rate? Can we bring back/increase the inheritance tax? Let’s do it!
@Fortune: “As for Tim Pool, he’s left of center but pro-Trump. ”
And by left of center, of course I mean bought and paid for by Russian intelligence.
@Fortune:
Pool literally took money from Russia and spewed their propaganda.
https://apnews.com/article/russian-interference-presidential-election-influencers-trump-999435273dd39edf7468c6aa34fad5dd
@Daryl: Pool took money from a media group which didn’t identify itself as Russian-funded. He produced something like an extra 15 minutes of content per week – I think he’s currently doing 20 hours per week – and his positions didn’t change.
@Fortune:
In processing your response, I think I may understand how we see things differently. For the sake of shared understanding I’m going to offer my perspective and let you get the last word in.
I think everything comes down to this statement:
My take comes back to a statement that’s be associated with Lincoln:
In other words, intent versus impact. Pool can say whatever he wants, but just as with someone who uses the ever-popular “I’m not a racist, but…” formulation before saying something they know is racist, I think we need to look at actions versus intent.
Given the amount of support Pool has given someone like Trump, whose positions are anathema to the currently consituted left–including on things like Abortion and Universal Health Care–I have a hard time saying his action match those of an avowed left of center person.
Pool for whatever reason–ideological or financial–has embraced his role as an alt-right influencer and MAGA supporter. The content he creates is that. He can claim that he’s doing it from a center left point of view, but the proof simply isn’t there.
I will happily concede that on certain issues (like abortion and universal healthcare) he leans “leftward.” But unless you are a single issue voter, that doesn’t tell a complete story. Pew surveying suggests that ~32% of Republicans support abortion in some cases–does that by itself make them “left of center”? (Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/06/17/a-closer-look-at-republicans-who-favor-legal-abortion-and-democrats-who-oppose-it/)
I think a lot of this gets to the overall simplicity with which may of us (including myself at times) see political parties. And perhaps at the end of the day both of us are in an argument about whose team Pool is actually on.
Look, ultimately, we can at least both agree he’s pro-Trump. And if we want definitely right-of-center folks making similar comments, there’s Charlie Kirk and Benny Johnson, both promoted above.
And I think we might also agree that they are all–Kirk, Johnson, and Pool–opportunist hacks who are just out to make a buck on a grift they found works for them.
I listened to the Navarro interview on CNBC this morning. He is still promoting the idea that the tariffs are tax cuts since the US wont be paying for them. That aside he did devote some time to the idea that VATs are an unfair trade practice. I have never understood that. Quote below is fromm a guy at CSIS explaining how it works. The VAT is trade neutral with tariffs making up the cost difference. Note this is for cars where the EU does have a higher tariff rate but the US has long had a 25% tariff rate on pickups.
“Let’s start with a car that costs $50,000. If it is an American car, it would sell in the United States for $50,000 plus state sales tax—in this example, we’ll assume 5 percent—which comes out to $52,500. If that car were exported to the European Union, it would cost $50,000 plus the VAT, plus the tariff. EU VATs vary by country but are all between 15 and 27 percent. For our purposes, let’s say 20 percent, which is near the EU average. With the VAT, the car would cost $60,000. If you add the EU car tariff, which is 10 percent, that would be another $5,000 for a total of $65,000.
On the other side, if our $50,000 car is made in Europe and sold in Europe, it would cost $60,000—the base cost plus the 20 percent VAT. If the European car is exported to the United States, there it would cost $50,000 plus a 5 percent sales tax plus the 2.5 percent tariff, or $53,750. If you’ve made it this far, you can see the VAT operates as a sales tax on both cars, and any price differential is due to the difference in tariffs. If there were no tariffs on either side, the U.S. car in Europe, and the European-made car would both cost $60,000—the base cost plus VAT. In the United States, both cars would cost $52,500—the base cost plus sales tax. The price differential between the two cars in both cases is caused by the difference in tariffs, not the VAT.”
Steve
Also, WRT to Tim Pool and Benny Johnson (both quoted in this article) and the Russia Tenent Media thing, my take remains that they were useful idiots who most likely didn’t know or care where the money was coming from. That mirrors DoJ’s take on the situation (at least the “didn’t know” part).
This is the article from OTB when that news broke–
https://outsidethebeltway.com/being-a-useful-idiot-pays-well-allegedly/
@Matt Bernius: I think Tim Pool is primarily a workaholic information junkie. I’ve watched him for years, less so recently because he’s become a Trumper. But I remember him being a leftie and I’ve heard him become a Trumper via becoming “anti-woke”. You can speculate without having followed him, or other people can bring up Tenet, but you don’t understand it’s entirely in-character for him to have posted what he did, without defending tariffs.
@Fortune:
Ah got it, so you’ve got a longer term attachment to Pool. Serious question: what attracts you (or attracted you) to him?
I’ve never been particularly impressed with anything about him–his analysis strikes me as akin to that of someone like Joe Rogan. He’s strikes me as an opportunist who thinks he’s far smarter and insightful than he is. And I’ve never really found anyone I consider to be serious who had a different take on Pool. That said, that could be selection (or age) bias.
I also now understand your desire to defend him.
@Matt Bernius: The same reason I come here – I want to know what people I disagree with are thinking.
ETA – This is what you’ve got backwards, I’m not defending Pool, except on Tenet. I listened to him because he was outside my circle and he was interesting. He’s become less interesting as a Trumper. Also I liked how he talks to people who disagree with him. If you don’t know anyone who has a different take on Pool, you need to talk to more people outside your circle.
@steve:
I wonder if VAT in Europe works as it does in Mexico. Here the tax is 16%. there are two major categories that are exempt from it: food* and medicine. Everything else gets charged 16% (less at the border).
But if you charge VAT in your invoices, you can deduct the VAT you pay to your suppliers. I’ve no idea how it works out, but it’s great for food and medicine sellers. They pay a lot of VAT for various services and lots of items, but charge little to their customers (see asterisk below). So they come out being owed money by the government.
This benefits mostly businesses, but also individuals who work independently and issue invoices, as they charge VAT for their services.
*Prepared, meaning cooked, food at an establishment, like a restaurant or a cafeteria in an office or factory, counts as a service and gets charged 16% VAT. Some items commonly bundled with food supplies, like baking powder, are not classified as food and also cause 16% VAT (I deal with that at work).
@Jay L Gischer: On inheritance tax, I’m reminded of a statistic I read years ago about a proposed increase in the inheritance tax:
Among the general population, the proposed increase would affect approximately 1% of all estates; among members of Congress, the proposed increase would affect approximately 85% of all estates.
America is unlikely to become progressive enough to affect inheritance tax during the lifetime of anyone currently posting on these threads. We’ll have better luck convincing the Bezoses and Musks of the nation to give their fortunes away (and I’m not optimistic about that happening, either).
@wr: I think you’re being unfair in defining “left of center.” Aside from JKB, Conner/Drew/Guarneri/Thomas the Tank Train, and a handful of others, who isn’t “left of center” in contemporary America? For all we can discern from his comments, Fortune may even consider himself “left of center.”
@Fortune: “Pool took money from a media group which didn’t identify itself as Russian-funded. He produced something like an extra 15 minutes of content per week – I think he’s currently doing 20 hours per week – and his positions didn’t change.”
Guess those Russkies are just damned fools then, throwing all this money at a guy to get him to keep saying exactly the same stuff he’d say if they didn’t pay him.
Amazing what you have to pretend to believe in order to maintain this persona of yours.
@wr: I watched him.
@Fortune: “you don’t understand it’s entirely in-character for him to have posted what he did, without defending tariffs”
Well, sure, it’s entirely in-character for any whore to have sex with whoever pays him or her.
Are you really such a sucker for an obvious grift, or are you desperately hoping to start one of your own?
In re: Tim Pool’s “extra 15 minutes”
Source: Chicago Sun-Times.
He may not have known it was the Russians, but if he didn’t think that was suspicious, he’s an idiot.
He also has no integrity.
@Fortune: ” I watched him.”
That you were willing to do so without being paid by the Russians says a lot about how you value your time.
@wr: If you don’t seek out content you might disagree with, you’ll end up as a…oh, sorry, I forgot what site I’m on.
@Kathy:
The European rule is that the states determine the rates, and what they apply to.
The EU rule is that only two rates are permitted.
(Its actually a bit more complicated, but this is the simple version.)
The “standard” rate must be 15% or more.
The “reduced” rate must be at least 5%.
EXCEPT some countries have a “legacy” reduced rate of zero.
The UK did, for instance.
And the EU gets a 0.3% cut of each states VAT revenue, which is about 11% of the EU revenue..
Another EU revenue is a 75% share of external customs duties and tariifs.
14% of EU revenue comes from duties and tariffs; an indication of how low they actually are these days.
75% of the revnue comes from the direct assessments on the member states.
The whole lot adds up to about €180 annually; compare a US federal budget of $6.75 trillion in 2024,
@Fortune:
Are you claiming the Pool is so stupid that he didn’t know where that money was coming from?
While that would explain his, and your, political views. No one gets paid that money and doesn’t know where it came from.
@Daryl: I don’t know. When someone wants to overpay you for something you were already doing, let him.
The amount of rationalizations, explanations, excuses, and justifications I have read the last few days after trillions of dollars were wipe out truly explains the depth of illogic the Republican Party has sunk to. It is one thing to create a different economic allocation model, it is another to simply eradicate wealth, which by the way, will impede the goal of better distribution of wealth. When Trump got elected I thought his policies amounted to throwing sand at the gears but his tariffs are wholesale destruction. I guess the price of eggs had nothing to do with it. Let’s be clear, we have country where a significant number want to destroy the American system even if the personally get hurt by it. We saw this during Covid and now we are seeing it again. Every time you see a random collection of two individuals, rest assured, one is a sociopath.
@JohnSF:
*derpez moi*
“€180” should read “€180 billion”.
lol
€180 would barely buy a decent meal for two in Brussels, assuming a bottle of wine. 😉
Point is, the EU is not remotely like the US federal government.
If someone randomly offers to overpay you for ANYTHING, your guard should immediately go up. They are either trying to hide something, will ask you to do something sketchy later, or they’re trying to launder money.
At very least, you ask a lot of questions. If you’re smart.
I got some discussion of my @gVOR10: description of Trump as stupid. I just stumbled across a Market Watch article citing AEI claiming Trump’s tariffs are based on an error. Everybody’s now seen the formula they used based on our trade deficit with each country, not their tariffs. OK, bad enough. But in the formula the deficit is divided by (elasticity of import prices)*(price elasticity of import demand) which they gave values of (.25)*(4). Most commentators have said they cancel out and moved on. But AEI says they used elasticity of retail prices when they should have used import prices. So the .25 factor should be .945, call it 1. That, they say would cut the proposed tariffs to maybe 14%. But now he’s dug his heels in, Trump isn’t likely to admit error.
Based on the traditional formulation that “Stupid is as stupid does.”, I’m sticking with calling Trump stupid.
@Matt Bernius: @Joe: @Daryl: @wr: Fortune is enjoying this game of ping pong he’s running. I don’t think anyone else is. I’ve a few times noted that Dr. Taylor was displaying admirable pedagogic patience. You do too, Matt, past what one could reasonably ask.
@Fortune:
Only someone who knows who’s paying the bills doesn’t ask who’s paying the bills. Not even you are that stupid. Well, maybe YOU are.
Returning to the OP, I am now seeing the Latest & Greatest in apologia is: “Tariffs are manly.”
I am not joking.
@Jen: I had the same sense as you do about getting overpaid, but I willing to admit that it’s possible that I simply don’t read enough different sources to make that type of decision. 😉
People like Pool may or may not be “left” but they are definitely not liberal.
Their worldview is illiberal, based on grievance and a refusal to accept others as co-equal and legitimate.
This is why his hated outgroup can flip easily from Rich People to say, Immigrants, to Eastasia, all without breaking stride.
@Jen: I had the same response as you.
I can’t really go into details but in my experience when someone tries to over pay you they are doing something sketchy/illegal.
Pool being called left of center gave me a good laugh.
@Fortune:
First, thanks for hanging in the conversation and I’m sorry this reply is so late–I’ve been under the weather.
Second, I’m giving a quick reply because this touches on a topic I’ve wanted to write on, so a more in-depth response is coming.
My position on Pool and others like him is this: The reason I don’t pay attention to Pool isn’t because I disagree with his positions. I don’t pay attention to him is he doesn’t have any real substance beyond being reflexively heterodox. There are people who hold the same ideological positions who express them much better. Pool’s an edgelord who is more interested in building personal brand and making bank than he is at delivering worthwhile content.
Watch for a post on this in the next week–we can continue the discussion there if you are interested in doing so.