Does Taking The High Road Make Political Sense?
What's more important, appearances or action?
As everyone is most likely aware, yesterday former President Donald Trump appeared in a Federal Cout in Miama to be arraigned on 37 felony counts based on his alleged handling of Classified Documents after leaving office. In a speech given Tuesday evening at his golf club in Bedminster New Jersey, calling the charges an outrageous political attack. This framing of these investigations into Trump as fundamentally political has been repeatedly advanced by both Trump’s closest allies and supporters and the majority of candidates competing with Trump for the Republican Presidential nomination.
Given Trump’s status as the current Republican Presidential frontrunner, and this being his second indictment this year, one might expect the Democratic Party to use this to their advantage. However, for the moment, Politico’s reporting suggests that President Biden (as the defacto head of the party) has ordered that they don’t leverage the Prosecution in any way:
President Joe Biden and his top aides have taken a vow of silence on the federal indictment of his predecessor, Donald Trump — and have explicitly ordered the national Democratic Party and his reelection campaign to do the same.
That directive was issued in recent days after Trump was hit with federal charges for his handling of classified documents after he left the White House, according to three people familiar with the instructions. But that decision has some Democrats and allies worried that Biden could miss a chance to underscore the seriousness of the national moment as well as deliver a political blow to his top White House rival.
Biden declared at the start of his presidency that he would not discuss Department of Justice investigations, particularly those about the former president, and he remained tightlipped when Trump was arraigned Tuesday in a Florida courthouse.
[…]
But Biden to this point has been explicit: The entities that the White House controls, which includes the reelection campaign and the Democratic National Committee, are not to publicly discuss any of the criminal investigations into Trump. Those closest to the president are deeply wary of any perception that Biden is trying to influence the investigations.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/13/biden-dnc-trump-indictment-00101821
Choosing to take the high road in this case and avoid the appearance of impropriety fits in with Biden’s “old school” approach to politics. Generally speaking, Presidents have traditionally avoided commenting on such cases. And, in part, Biden’s 2020 campaign was based on this type of return to normality and Senate-style performed civility.
The question is does this make sense from a political perspective–especially in this political climate?
I think it’s fair to say that if the situation was reversed, there is little chance that President Trump or most Republicans on that national stage would return the favor. To that point, most of them have conveniently forgotten how Trump’s first impeachment was centered around the then-President’s implicit attempt to launch a political investigation into Biden* (his chief political rival). Likewise, most of those Republican supporters at the time thought this was perfectly acceptable, non-impeachable behavior. Given all of that, it’s hard to imagine them–and in particular Trump–not exploiting any hint of connection to crime (we’re even seeing this now with, to date, unsubstantiated claims about President Biden accepting foreign bribes). Further, I think it’s fair to say that a significant amount, if not a majority, of Republicans see this as a political prosecution (I expect some of them will advance that argument in the comments to this post).
I think it’s safe to say Biden’s not going to win over the majority of Republicans with this hands-off approach. Nor do I expect it’s going to win him any friends among Republican lawmakers (at least not in public).
Likewise, choosing not to directly go after Trump risks not giving “red meat” to his base. And that could be problematic considering that polling suggests that they are somewhat lukewarm on his reelection bid. There’s an argument to be made that Biden’s election was as much a repudiation of Trump as it was in support of Biden. Given that, so long as Trump is the frontrunner, it would make sense to keep the focus on him and his alleged misdeeds.
I can see an argument that, to the degree that this is a political decision (versus a decision that grows out of a moral conviction about how government should operate in public), the high road appeals to traditionalist independents and anti-Trump Republicans who voted for Biden in 2020. And there is evidence to suggest that both were important in the president’s victory (independents, in particular, broke for Biden by 14%, a rate far higher than the 4% Trump beat Clinton by in 2016).
It’s also worth noting that just because Biden has prevented the National Party from going after Trump for the moment, it doesn’t mean there won’t be attacks. Also from the Politico article:
Some left-leaning groups outside Biden’s control have already commissioned ads about Trump’s legal woes, which Democratic officials believe helps do the dirty work for them. And first lady Jill Biden did venture a public comment, bemoaning the Republicans standing by Trump in the face of the indictment….Some left-leaning groups outside Biden’s control have already commissioned ads about Trump’s legal woes, which Democratic officials believe helps do the dirty work for them. And first lady Jill Biden did venture a public comment, bemoaning the Republicans standing by Trump in the face of the indictment.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/13/biden-dnc-trump-indictment-00101821
So for the moment, we shouldn’t expect Trump’s legal issues to be a focus of Democratic leader’s talking point. The question is, for how long, with an election approaching, can they maintain that approach and who among them will ultimately break rank on this first?
* – In addition to the political investigation at the core of the original Impeachment, let us not forget that one of the most enduring phrases to come out of the 2016 campaign was “Lock Her Up” which suggested the need for a political investigation into Trump’s chief political rival Hillary Clinton. In fact, there is a good chance that Trump’s eventual win was secured by… checks notes… a last-minute unprecedented announcement of the FBI reopening an investigation into Clinton. At the time, Candidate Trump made a significant deal out of that announcement.
Biden and the WH attacking trump over his legal issues, just feeds into the R’s weaponized government talking point. Last evening, Faux News had a chyron at the end of trump’s speech calling Biden a wanna be dictator that arrests his opponent. Why provide evidence that this is true?
There are plenty of independent, anti trump groups and individual Dems that will make those attacks, the Lincoln Project has one up called Espionage, that compares trump to Aldrich Ames, Robt. Hansen and others. The press is spending a lot of time rebutting trumps talking points, even outlets like the Nat’l Review and Washington Examiner are going after trump, though some are simply arguing for R’s to move on.
IIRC it was Rachel Bitecofer who called the 2020 election pretty accurately. Her thing was that politics is now dominated by negative partisanship. People don’t vote for the prez candidate they like, they vote against the one they hate. Biden did a good job in 2020 of avoiding triggering unnecessary negative partisanship. He didn’t convert the MAGA, but he did carry a lot of “independents” and maybe some marginal Republicans. Or got some to stay home. He very much took advantage of the fact that Trump was doing a fine job of getting people to hate him without needing any help from Biden. I expect that to continue. The news has been nothing but Trump’s indictment for a week. In this case I think Biden is doing not only the proper thing, but the tactically correct thing, by taking the high road and letting Trump hang himself.
Also, Obama seemed to realize that most voters remember nothing beyond six months. He seemed to govern for three years, or three and a half, then politic hard for six months or a year. I think Biden’s doing the same thing. Also too, he’d rather run against Trump than DeUseless, so why try to interfere in GOP primaries that look to go the way Biden wants. Never interfere with your enemy when he’s making a mistake.
This, @gVOR10. There is plenty of time to let the Republican candidates figure out how best to attack this and let the process marinate before any Democrat decides how to manage the message in a general if Trump is still around or even how to hang it on the Republican party if he is not.
@Joe:
That was my thought as well. Let the GQP go on the offensive first.
Pence is off to a weak start, trying to attack and defend Benito at the same time. He will be most successful at incurring either the hatred or contempt of both sides.
The essence of partisanship is that the other side is always worse. No politician can hope to win over a majority of partisans from the other party.
I think the old adage, attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte, applies here:
“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”
Additionally, Biden has to contend with the fact that he had classified info from his time as VP and reportedly also from his time in the Senate. To normies who aren’t political hobbyists, read all the details in the news, or understand the complexities of classified info handling, the situation will look similar enough that Biden jumping on this would likely be counterproductive. And it will also promote the narrative that this is a political witch hunt against Trump by the Biden administration which again, would not be good for Biden.
So I think the best move for Biden is to do nothing.
Plus, the election is a long way away, so there is plenty of time to let the situation develop before jumping in.
Right now, the best place for attention to be focused is on Trump’s own words, as reported in the indictment, and those photographs. Anything Biden & Co might say about it would only be a distraction from those things.
I just hope we get to hear the tapes these guys promise that they have.
(And just like Watergate, I won’t actually listen to the tapes, finding the nightly recaps being enough for me. And also just like Watergate–and just like the MAGAts about Trump, I would add–I won’t actually care about what’s in them. In Nixon’s case, because I was a strong partisan and in this case, because I’m not anymore.)
Some (large, some days) part of Joe Biden’s appeal is that he doesn’t feel the need to be the center of attention. I’d certainly agree that’s he’s been a very effective president, but he’s also been very deliberate about not interjecting himself into every controversy imaginable.
Let Trump’s bad behavior speak for itself. Let people be reminded of how exhausting four+ years of the Trump show was.
Edward Luce at the Financial Times answers why Biden must remain silent about the Trump Dilemma. Trump is willing to burn down America if he thinks it will save him from prison. Because Biden actually puts America first, not himself, he is not going to encourage the crazies to start the fires. Anything dems say will be considered just provocation for violent rhetoric or just outright violence.
Funny, I seem to recall that the single most memorable moment from the 2020 debates was when Biden said to Trump, “Will you shut up, man?”
Then there was the time he called a Fox reporter to his face a “stupid son of a bitch.”
Sure, he didn’t invent insulting nicknames for his opponents, but the idea that he always “took the high road” is more than a bit simplistic.
Trump’s Tune
You take the High Road
I’ll take the Low Road
And I’ll look up your skirt!
There are plenty of people mentioning Trump’s legal issues and flagrant awfulness that the White House doesn’t need to.
They get to go the high road, and watch their opponent get mud slung at him. Best of both worlds.
The judicial branch is about the only institution left where opinions based on bullshit do not easily ripen into facts. Engaging the Republicans in political rhetoric within this area would be a mistake.
Haha. I don’t think Biden staying out of the fray will leave the Democratic base unaware of Trump’s legal problems or less exasperated with Trump’s antics.
Polling indicates both Democrats and independents strongly support indicting Trump for his “willful retention of national defense information” and obstruction of efforts to retrieve said information. If that changes, Biden’s calculus might change. But right now the pressure is on Trump and his ‘conservative’ (lol) fanboys to flip the script, not on Biden.
The debt ceiling crisis just provided a case study in Biden’s chilled out approach vs calls for him to be more vocal. I recall fretting and frustration over Biden’s decision not to publicly hammer Republicans over threatening default. When the dust settled, Biden’s approach worked. In hindsight, he would have gotten a much worse deal had he antagonized Republicans with public attacks. Instead, he outsmarted and outnegotiated McCarthy and right.
This White House’s political strategy has been underestimated and second-guessed again and again — remember the near-universal panning of Biden’s MAGA Republican speech and messaging? The pundit class was wrong on that too. Biden was right. More often than not, Biden ends up proving wrong those who think we know better. I’m not inclined to think this time will be any different.
Many times, silence is golden. Biden gets that. Those hooked on our 24/7 infotainment news cycle don’t. Neither does Trump.
@Sleeping Dog: precisely.
The Biden Admin playing cool cucumbers is the right play. At this time.
Also agreed
Many times, silence is golden. Biden gets that. Those hooked on our 24/7 infotainment news cycle don’t. Neither does Trump
@Lounsbury:
Benito has a medical condition. If he stops talking, his brain begins to work.
@Kylopod:
Yes, but those end up being the exceptions that prove that he’s mostly been on the high road. That after 4 years, including the campaign, you are only citing two instances is an example of self restraint.
@Just nutha ignint cracker: Republicans don’t claim to have any tapes. Indeed even Jim Jordan has been careful to say he doesn’t even know if there are tapes. Comer and Grassley want Zlochevsky’s supposed accusations to be out there without them having to say they find them credible; that’s why they pressed so hard for Wray to release the infamous report, which would have spoken for itself. They had to settle for letting members of the Lunatic Caucus like Greene tell everyone what the report says, after being allowed to read it.
Sooner or later the penny will drop that in demanding the FBI open an investigation based on nothing but a single hearsay report from a Ukrainian informant close to Putin, they will be directly contradicting their years of ranting that the FBI was not justified in opening an investigation of Trump based on the Steele dossier (that wasn’t why the investigation was opened, but it’s the narrative Republicans cling to stubbornly). I look forward to journalists asking Grassley in particular whether he isn’t the one wanting a two-tiered justice system.
I agree with the strategy. Biden using it plays into the Trump claims that it is politically motivated. It won’t win Biden any points with anyone and may rally the Trump base. Biden can just let Trump have all the rope he needs to hang himself. And then let outside groups do the dirty work that may help convince moderates, independents, and anti-Trump Republicans. It’s a sound strategy and what my amateur advice would have been from jump.