Feel-Good News Out of Ukraine
The bad guys are having a bad week.
WSJ (“Ukraine Says It Killed Senior Russian General in Moscow Scooter Bombing“):
Ukraine carried out one of its most audacious operations on Russian soil early Tuesday, killing the commander of the unit designed to protect Russia’s troops from chemical, radiological and biological attack, by blowing up a scooter on the snowy streets of Moscow.
Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov is the most senior commander to be killed in the heart of the Russian capital since the start of the war in Ukraine. The head of the Russian Armed Forces’ Radiological, Chemical and Biological Defense Troops, Kirillov was killed outside a residential building along with his assistant, Russian law-enforcement authorities said.
Ukrainian officials said the killing was a special operation by the Security Service of Ukraine, the country’s primary domestic intelligence agency, known as the SBU.
Kyiv has sought to use targeted attacks against Russian military commanders, prominent pro-war figures and military installations far from the front to gain an edge in the nearly three-year-old war with its giant neighbor that has left tens of thousands dead and destroyed several Ukrainian cities. Ukrainian forces have been accused of using drones to attack the Kremlin as well as planting explosive devices and using close-range gunfire to target high-profile figures in Russia.
Russian authorities classified Kirillov’s killing as an act of terror.
After the explosion, the deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, said Kyiv was trying to “prolong the war and death” and promised “inevitable retribution,” according to state newswire TASS. “Law-enforcement agencies must find the killers in Russia and everything must be done to destroy those who ordered it who are in Kyiv,” Medvedev said, blaming Ukraine’s military and political leadership for the attack.
The U.S. had no previous knowledge of the operation, according to a Pentagon official.
“The United States was not aware of the operation in advance and we do not support or enable these kinds of activities,” said Pentagon spokesperson Air Force Maj. Gen Pat Ryder.
On Monday, a day before his killing, the SBU named Kirillov as a suspect in an investigation of war crimes, for allegedly ordering the use of banned chemical weapons in Ukraine.
“By order of Kirillov, more than 4,800 cases of enemy use of chemical weapons have been recorded since the beginning of the full-scale war,” the service said.
I suspect that there was at least informal coordination with US leadership before making such an audacious move. Certainly, the Biden administration has radically loosened the reins in its lame duck phase.
Whether Kirillov ordered the illegal use of chemical weapons in Ukraine, I simply don’t know. Regardless, he’s clearly a legitimate military target in a war started by Russia; the idea that this is “terrorism” is risible.
The Telegraph (“North Korean soldiers accidentally kill Russian troops because of language barrier“):
North Korean soldiers have accidentally killed eight Russian troops after a misunderstanding caused by the language barrier, according to Ukrainian intelligence .
According to HUR, Kyiv’s military intelligence, the deadly incident occurred when “fearful” North Koreans opened fire on vehicles from Russia’s “Akhmat” Chechen legion in Kursk, which Moscow is trying to recapture from Ukraine.
It said that Russia has faced problems commanding North Korean troops because of the communication issue.
HUR did not specify when the incident took place but announced separately on Monday that Ukrainian forces had killed or wounded some 30 North Korean soldiers over the weekend during fighting in the Kursk region.
The losses happened around the villages of Plekhovo, Vorobzha and Martynivka, HUR said, adding that three North Koreans were missing near Kurilovka.
It marks the first time that casualties from Pyongyang have been reported since the US confirmed in late October that around 10,000 North Korean soldiers had entered the war.
AP (“A couple hundred North Korean troops killed, wounded in battles with Ukrainian forces“):
A couple hundred North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces against Ukraine have been killed or wounded during battle in the Kursk border region, a senior military official said Tuesday.
The official didn’t provide details on exactly how many have been killed, but said the North Korean forces don’t appear to be battle-hardened, which contributes to the number of casualties they’ve had. The official was providing the first significant estimate of North Korean casualties, which comes several weeks after Ukraine announced that North Korea had sent 10,000 to 12,000 troops to Russia to help it in the almost 3-year war.
The White House and Pentagon on Monday confirmed that the North Korean forces have been battling on the front lines in largely infantry positions. They have been fighting with Russian units and, in some cases, independently around Kursk.
Alas, the next paragraph anticipates my concern:
The casualty disclosure comes as the Biden administration is pressing to send as much military aid as possible to Ukraine before President-elect Donald Trump takes over. But a senior defense official told reporters Tuesday that the Defense Department may not be able to send all of the remaining $5.6 billion in Pentagon weapons and equipment stocks intended for Ukraine before Jan. 20, when Trump is sworn in.
For most of the war, I have struggled to envision an endstate. At its outset, pretty much everyone, myself included, expected Russia to roll to easy victory. Ukraine’s fierce resistance quickly punctured that notion, made possible through the combination of years of training by the US and other NATO countries, huge material and intelligence support, and admirable grit in the face of horror on the part of the Ukrainian people. Yet, both sides had established maximalist gains that the losses of the war have only served to reinforce.
Trump has given every indication that U.S. support will dry up under his watch. We’ll see if our European allies can fill the breach. For now, at least, the Ukranians can revel in good news.
The fall of Assad in Syria is a heavy blow to Russia. Thousands of Russia troops and mercenaries are trying to find a way out of the interior. They have no friends as they killed a 100,000 or so in Aleppo with their artillery and elsewhere. If they make it the Russian navy ships on the coast, that’s a trip around Europe to Murmansk without the ability to make port calls. Or they can make deal with Turkey for Russian naval vessel transit into the Black Sea.
Furthermore, the operation in Syria was the logistics line and jump off for Russian operations in Africa.
Ukraine should be allowed to join NATO.NATO should ask to join Ukraine.
@JKB:
Syrian rebels give Russian troops a proper send-off
https://x.com/UKikaski/status/1869030748394786865
@JKB: Agreed on all points. I am concerned though, that Russia may be able to make a deal with, uh, somebody in Syria to maintain their presence there. Particularly since it is so valuable to them.
Maybe they are thinking they can get Trump to solve the problem for them, I don’t really know. I just know I’m not planning to celebrate them leaving Syria until they are, in fact, gone.
And well, may the people of Syria have a better time of it, though that seems questionable. When one’s political status depends on one’s ability to organize violence, one tends to continue to organize violence.
@JKB:
Indeed, and even heavier to Iran, which has seen the collapse of three main pillars of its Middle East “front of resistance” and extended deterrence: Hamas and Hezbollah wrecked, and Assad gone.
And absent Syria, hopes for recovery for Hezbollah as amilitary power (as opposed to political factor in Lebanon) look dubious.
@Jay L Gischer:
I expect Russia to cut a deal. The rebels will need a lot of resource support. But, any relationship going forward will have to filter through the existing animus.
@Rob1:
They may well try; but they have little concrete to offer, and are widely loathed in Syria.
Not so much as Hezbollah and the Iranians, to be sure, but its unclear how far the new government will be willing to annoy Syrians by being “understanding” regarding Russian desires
.
They might just get a few, rather insecure, berths in Tartus, with the Turks smiling rather predatorily at them.
But as a secure base complex: game over.