Friday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Friday, October 11, 2024
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59 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on
Twitter and/or
BlueSky.
Obama directly calling out Black men on their lack of enthusiasm is a depressing sign. The campaign’s internals must be flagging this as a problem for such an overt speech.
When the EPA can’t ban actual toxins in drinking water because “Big Government” but must ban fluoride because of conspiracy cranks: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/epa-fluoride-drinking-water-federal-court-ruling/
@Jen:
It’s the Clarence Thomas school of Black masculinity that is happy to be second class citizens as long as they’re allowed to abuse Black women
@Jen: Putting aside the merits of what he’s saying, I don’t think trying to shame voters is ever effective as a political strategy.
@Kylopod: It can be. But I’ve only seen it work on the Republican side of the equation–and that was decades ago. Voter outreach is a curious thing; it’s intense psychology. I am very worried at what the campaign internals are saying; that said, Obama is a pretty effective strategist and I hope they know what they are doing.
@Jen: I’m gonna go with Obama is just trying to make sure Harris has an unquestionable margin of victory. Glass half full perspective.
@Stormy Dragon: So apparently we are increasingly ruled by unelected, scientifically illiterate judges.
@Jen: It’s not a surprise. We discussed this when Biden was pushed out:
Yes, Democrats are due for their regularly-scheduled biannual election year tightening-October-polls panic. But Obama is predictably addressing what was inevitably coming once old white guy was replaced with an interracially-married mixed race black woman.
@Jen:
Right now I think it’s about 70% that Trump wins.
All things come to an end. It looks likely that the American people are going to commit national suicide. And TBH, if this is all it takes to kill American democracy, then we were overdue.
@DK: Oh, I’m well aware! I have been concerned about the subtle misogyny of “I’d vote for a woman, just not THIS one” from the get-go. As a former campaign person, I view most actions–particularly those of a very high-level surrogate–through the lens of internal polling. There’s definitely something there. I’m just not sure how serious it is.
@Kylopod:
The idea that shame isn’t effective seems to arise from psychological research indicating guilt-ridden environments do long-term damage, especially to children. But even as psych student, I was tempted to raise my hand in class and say, “You opened with ‘shame isn’t effective,’ but your lecture was about ‘shame is harmful’ and those are two different topics, albeit related.”
The potential harms notwithstanding, most parents and teachers know shame is a pretty good enforcer (if all you care about is getting the behavior you want). If a kid feels no shame, you might have a budding sociopath on hand. Balance, I guess.
@Jen:
I’d be curious to know what examples you have in mind. I don’t mean that as a gotcha; I know you used to work in campaigns and know more about this than I do. But it just seems distinctly counter-intuitive that this sort of thing would work.
And I’m perfectly aware Republicans engage in vote-shaming today. Trump does it all the time, as when he says Jews who vote Dem should have their head examined. But I also highly doubt it’s swayed anyone. And Dems have done it on occasion before as well, as in Biden’s “You ain’t black,” which was sort of a joke, but not really. Obama is better positioned to deliver this critique, as a black man himself, but that doesn’t mean it’s effective, and in the context of Dems looking at polls and seeing signs that young black men are shifting away from the party, it comes off a little desperate. In any case, Harris has stayed away from this type of rhetoric, and I think she is right to do so.
Scott Jennings Tries to Defend Trump Ripping Detroit During Speech in the City: ‘I Think the Point He Was Making Is…’ (Mediaite)
Trump Bashes Detroit While Speaking There (Forbes)
Trump Goes to Detroit and Insults the Entire City (The Daily Beast)
Reminiscent of Trump’s “How stupid are the people of Iowa” and Milwaukee is a “horrible city”:
If Hillary, Joe, or Kamala said this about any given rural county, the press would have weeklong meltdown. Anyway, Detroit-area politicians are not pleased.
@DK: Why did not anyone ask what seems like the obvious follow up question to Trump’s comments re Detroit? What steps did you take, Mr. Trump, to address Detroit’s problems during your term in office? I do have a friend who moved to Detroit recently and finds it full of young people creating art. I discount her opinion a little bit because she is a super glass half full type.
@Kylopod: Sure, happy to fill in that blank. It was most effective in GOTV work, to motivate infrequent but Republican voters to go vote. Direct mail noting that voter turnout in elections in their precinct or area was X%, yet their score was Y%. There was usually an overall increase in turnout in areas with mailers like that. Maybe that’s guilt though, not shame? Or motivated reasoning? There were also pieces heavy on the “you don’t want [whatever] to happen…we can only accomplish our goals if you vote.”
@Michael Reynolds:
I wouldn’t go that high but I also think Trump wins next month.
Like all those people who like watching disaster films. They are entertained by the scenes of catastrophe but few think of how entertaining it would be like to be eaten by zombies in real life.
BTW, I don’t watch zombie movies.
@Michael Reynolds: Right now I think it’s about 70% that Trump wins.
I was thinking 2/3 so on the same page. What disturbs me the most is that nothing seems to work. The Jack Smith release of the filings had no effect at all. I think the Harris team has run a good campaign, and Trump is his usual train wreck, but it just doesn’t seem to matter. White males love Trump, and even males of color seem to be pretty cool with him. The only way I see Harris winning is if women have unbelievable turnout, and maybe even drag some men along with them.
A traitor, a rapist and a thief may very well be the POTUS. That only happens in third world countries, and at least they can expect a coup.
And Vance may be worse than Trump, and I assume Trump will be president for two years at the most.
If he wins we will see just how many overseas vacations we can take in the next four years.
@Lucysfootball:
“We found the papers ran 26 combined articles mentioning Trump’s indictment in the week after the unsealing of Smith’s filing. But those same papers published 100 combined articles — nearly 4 times as many — that mentioned Clinton’s server in the week after then-FBI Director James Comey’s notorious October 28, 2016, letter on new developments in that probe, as we documented in a 2016 study.
The papers ran more than 6 times as many combined front-page stories that mentioned Clinton’s server (46) as they did front-page stories that mentioned Trump’s indictment (7) over those periods.”
@Jen:
That was my big fear when talk of replacing Biden started, and Harris was the most logical choice to replace him.
@Lucysfootball:
Most Americans are not well-versed on what government does. They see Members of Congress who earn decent salaries but don’t seem to do much to earn them, and on a day-to-day basis, they have little understanding of how programs directly affect them. They know even less about foreign policy. All they really zero in on is how much it all costs.
Without an understanding of what government actually does, they really don’t care who is in charge. They don’t know and don’t care about the threat Trump poses, because if you don’t understand how things work, you certainly don’t care who is in charge.
Trump is an absolute sh!tshow. His policies and the garbage people he’ll bring with him will do actual harm. And a lot of people don’t care–or worse, they see that as a plus.
My anxiety is clearly creeping up, I might need to shut off my news diet.
@Jen: I’ve always taken “just not this one” as a statement that you want to be thought of as someone who would vote for a female candidate even though you never will.
Where things are now: there is a “religious insanity” defense where Christians get less punishment if they try to murder you because they think you’re satanic, because not letting them murder Satan would violate their first ammendment rights: https://caselaw.findlaw.com/court/il-court-of-appeals/1496867.html
@Jen:
That’s so technical I’m not even sure it’s either of those things–at least not overtly. It sounds more in line with something I still see today–an attempt to scare voters into voting.
The vote-shaming I’ve been discussing concerns more core aspects of a lot of people’s identity–race, religion, gender, generational bloc, education status, and so on. There’s a reason Obama’s “bitterly clinging to their guns and religion” remark got such backlash, no matter how accurate it may have been. People don’t like to be told they don’t know what’s good for the group identities they belong to.
@Jen:
Ignorance is at the root of all too many problems.
Granted no one can know everything, and the sum of human knowledge is incredibly BIG, but it really doesn’t take that much to get the gist of most important things.
I know I’m unusual in how much stuff I know*, but the truth is I acquired all the fundamentals on science, history, and politics in junior high school; and some even in elementary school. Things like how a virus differs from a bacteria, how much energy is involved in storms, how governments work, etc.
A lot of people my age also know these things. But I’ve noticed many Americans my age largely don’t. Take the very settled matter of the shape of the Earth. there are simple proofs anyone can check out, which I learned in the second grade. I brought these up in a message board years ago, and a lot of people there were unfamiliar with them.
Last thing, I use the internet a lot to check facts, or to learn new facts. It’s so easy and quick, I wonder why not everyone does it every day.
*I like to say my base of knowledge is as broad as the Pacific Ocean, and as deep as a puddle.
@Jen: His policies and the garbage people he’ll bring with him will do actual harm.
The people who will be with him this time are the major problem. This time they’ll get it right, no more Rex Tillersons who won’t join the party.
People in here are in an echo chamber, and it’s a self-chosen echo chamber. We don’t have much exposure to those who like and even love Trump, and when we do have exposure to them we generally don’t want to prolong it. We also have trouble understanding why people would elect a rapist, a traitor, a thief to any office, much less president. I ask Trump people I meet and know would you hire him if you had a company. They think he is a shrewd businessman.
It’s scary that half the country doesn’t seem to care about a person’s morals and integrity when voting for president. But the most effective thing the Republicans have done is to convince many people that all politicians lie, so what if Trump lies too.
Other countries may have Trumps, but a Trump in most countries has to get his party to elect him as leader once the party has power. And most of the time the party isn’t that crazy.
@Lucysfootball:
My straight best friend hangs out at Mar-a-Lago. The dad of a fwb is a Republican nominee for governor this cycle.
Folks here surely have Trumpers in orbit. It’s not like they’re hard to find.
@DK: I don’t mean that the people here have no exposure to Trump fans. I have acquaintances who are for Trump. Most people here do not have a large amount of people in their circle of family and friends who are Trump people. It is a matter of self-selection. Similar to why most people who frequent this blog would not live in rural Mississippi.
@Lucysfootball: Ah, gotcha.
Count me in with those that are sure Trump is going to win. The only thing that comforts me is that thousands of Trump supporters are going to be ecstatic with his win and then suffer and die as the policies they think they want are implemented.
Also, as we get closer to the election I’m probably going to be here less. I’m already suicidal and yesterday was a very bad day mentally. I’m safe and I’m letting people close to me know where I’m at so I can be supportive. I just can’t handle this.
I spent my whole life being force fed the bullshit that Republicans and Conservatives were inherently more moral than anyone else. It’s wild how false that turned out to be.
For anyone who thinks that Trump has a 70% chance of winning, or even a 10% chance:
There are a few weeks left. Do some phone banking or text banking. Write some post cards. Knock on some doors. Put up a lawn sign. Talk to your friends and relatives.
Stick your Spenglerian musings in the bottom desk drawer and go do something.
There’s no adequate FAA oversight of Boeing.
You don’t say.
If El Weirdo wins, the FAA won’t have that problem anymore. It won’t have any oversight of Boeing anyway.
@Beth: Stay safe. Job no. 1. Safe will help with the sane part, too.
Republicans are flooding the averages again with their sus “Red Wave 2022!!11!!” polls. Per former pollster turned spreadsheet-guy Adam Carlson:
Same psychops as it ever was. Rinse, wash, and repeat.
@Kylopod: That’s a fair distinction (and all of it is evidence that we cannot/should not rely on people’s sense of civic duty to vote).
Sigh.
@Lucysfootball:
Well, yes on the first part–it’s definitely a self-chosen echo chamber. But I have quite a lot of exposure to people who like/love/will continue to vote for Trump. Both my husband and I have immediate family members who are Trump supporters. I’m a (nonpartisan) elected official in a Trump-leaning town, and we both have friends who are Trump supporters. It’s…challenging. But that’s of course one of the reasons I’m here in this echo chamber! 😉
@Kingdaddy: Please take good care of yourself.
Whatever it was Xlon the Cisgender revealed yesterday, it caused a $60 billion drop in Texla stock today.
Good job, Xlon.
@Kingdaddy:
Do I have to take the one down that says ‘Don’t step on the weeds’?
@DK: “Same psychops as it ever was. Rinse, wash, and repeat.”
And as always, it’s working on my fellow Democrats. Geeze, people, get a grip. Announcing you’re sure your candidate is going to lose by a huge margin is just giving up.
If things go wrong, you’ll have plenty of time to grieve. How about using that energy to fight about now?
@wr: Bedwetting is to Democrats in October as stomach growling is to stage actors before curtain up. It’s just a necessary part of the show at this point, something that has to happen before the main event. It would be a good area of study for a researcher comparing liberal vs. conservative psychological traits.
I saw a tweet from an anti-Trumper who said he and his Republican friends used to wait for the left’s inevitable October dooming, so they could laugh, taunt, and troll. Now that he’s a Democratic voter he just finds it annoying lol
Well, I have completed my transition. I had a blowout on Lakeshore Dr. A man pulled over and watched me struggle while he explained to me, a former mechanic, how to change a tire. I even got the bonus gear of “is he following me?”
I’m cis now.
In view of the threats on his life, the Trump campaign is asking for military planes and military vehicles to transport him during the final weeks of the run-up to the election.
@Beth:
May I call you…Sis? 😀
@CSK: Right, so it looks like the dictator wannabe cosplay is in full swing in Camp Trump.
The answer to that request should be a solid “F*CK NO”.
@Jen:
Obviously he wants to assume the trappings of the presidency before the election.
@Jen:
@CSK:
Biden’s already said he can have what he requires.
You know, I’d love to be the one who implements that order. I’d give the Weirdo whatever he, and he alone, requires. I’d give zilch to his campaign and entourage.
@Kathy:
Trump’s given up golf till the election. Apparently he thinks (or says) Iran is behind the assassination attempts.
@CSK: Why would the Iranians want Trump dead? With him in office, they get to build nuclear weapons without restraint if they so choose and his support for Israel engaging in an eternal war against Hamas. I’m not seeing a downside for Iran here. (On the other hand, many people have told me that I have a poor understanding of ME politics. They’re probably right. But there are more urgent problems closer to home that command my attention.)
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
According to The Guardian, Trump’s team is heeding “intelligence provided to his campaign staff that Iran is seeking to assassinate him.”
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
They’re certainly right. Everyone has a poor understanding of Mideast politics, especially ME politicians.
@CSK:
Maybe the Weirdo and his team have to lie, and maybe the media has to report it. We don’t have to believe it or even pretend to 🙂
@Kathy:
I never suggested that I believe it. It’s what Team Trump is saying.
Sean O’Brien is proof positive that Republicans consistently choose against their own interests in order to follow one figure or other, be it a mythical savior or a bloviating charlatan masquerading as a human being.
https://gallery.knewz.com/bought-and-paid-for-teamsters-president-slams-democrats/
Things keep going worse and worse for Boeing.
Seriously, let it go broke and have some other aerospace company, one with a stronger commitment to manufacture a good product line, if any such still exist, take it over.
Or fund Doc Brown and use his DeLorean to stop the McDonnell Douglas assimilation of Boeing.
The latter might be the more realistic option.
@Beth: And for anyone else who wants to stay in touch, my email is ti*******@***oo.com. Even if we can’t touch base here anymore, I hope we can still reach other.
Beth, I love you for everything you’ve taught me. Same for you, Stormy Dragon. You’ve both helped me so much in helping my child.
It’s gonna get hard, here in Trump country. I’m not sure I can survive all of you fuckers saying Trump’s gonna win by 70%. We have to do better.
The fuck he is.
@Just nutha ignint cracker: Best guess would be the Iranians view Trump as easy to manipulate, which he certainly is, and would be child’s play for a guy like Bibi, and Bibi would be assisted by the Saudis. Not that I have any confidence in the report, or anything.
@CSK: Yes, I’m confident that’s what they told him. I still not able to connect the dots to see the picture of the Christmas tree.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIjugoe2Z80
My trans son, his name is Luke. I see him, I love him. I hope he knows how much I love him when he blows this fucking state and lives his best life. I am still his mom, loving him.
@Jax: A quick note, because it goes to all of our discussions about math and predictions, is that Michael said he thinks Trump has a 70% chance of winning, not that he’ll win by 70%. Those are two different things.
I’ll admit I AM unnerved by a few things. But I am hoping that Harris’s GOTV efforts are solid. Personally speaking, by now our household had been confirmed as Obama voters in 2012, Clinton voters in 2016, and Biden voters in 2020. We have not heard/seen/been contacted by anyone from the Harris ground operation yet. That makes me nervous.