Friday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Friday, October 18, 2024
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57 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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Contains chart of bias in past elections, both sides have been favored:
“WaPo Gift”
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My doctor’s appointment went better than anticipated yesterday. The doctor wants me to have another MRI in two months before deciding to do a biopsy. Despite my history, he seemed guardedly optimistic. This doctor is supposed to be the top doctor for this in the area. If he is worried, a biopsy now rather than next year would be the course of action.
Darn, I got to do those book signings now. 9 in 15 days. I get tired just thinking of all the plane connections I’m going to have to make.
@Bill Jempty: I like that news!
Trump showed up at the Al Smith dinner last night and was very weak and low energy. I guess this is why Trump is canceling interviews, rallies, and events.
Biden can still stand up and talk, what is going on here?
@DK: omg wow. It’s like he’s disintegrating before our eyes.
@DK:
@becca:
Early in El Felon’s term, there was a moment on a foreign trip he required a golf cart to get up a gentle slope. I forget exactly where and when this was.
At the time, I recalled when Reagan was shot. He took a bullet to the lung and was coughing up blood, yet he managed, at his insistence, to walk out of the limo on his own upon arrival at the hospital.
I’ve no love for Reagan, but one has to respect a gesture like that, even if it was unnecessary and counterproductive. Compared to not being able, or willing, to walk uphill a little bit, well…
Trump’s now reiterating that Jan. 6 was “a day of love.”
@CSK: Sort of like raping his wife was an act of love.
I’m making chocolate chip banana muffins in anticipation of my youngest grandkid spending the weekend and just cracked a double yolk egg.
I’m taking it as a good omen.
@becca:
I think the Romans believed that.
@becca:
Back in the early 90s there was a network show that took place in medieval times. I remember exactly two scenes: a Bishop or Abbot dying by poisoning, and a cook cracking a double yolk egg and being accused of being a witch.
So, you know, there’s that possibility.
I have written before about the “Courage Tour” being conducted by the NAR(New Apostolic Reformation). Here is a piece about it in The Atlantic.
It’s pretty scary, people are being conditioned to get violent after the November election. The NAR participated in the Jan. 6 insurrection in 2020 and my take is that the NAR leaders think this would, in 2024, yield a seat at the table in a potential Trump administration.
The piece covers a 4-day long event in Eau Claire, WI, it’s pretty long. I am going to quote the initial paragraphs along with the ending wrapup.
Gift link: “GiftAtlantic”
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@Scott: “The Apprentice” movie portrays the rape, I don’t know how accurately, but definitely not as an act of love. Saw the movie last night. “Entertaining” isn’t the right word, but worth seeing if you have the opportunity. Its release seems too late to have any real influence on the election, but one may hope.
Neat, a double yolk egg. Yup, take that as a sign of good times ahead for you and your family.
I remember when I was young and my mom or dad would crack an egg and I would see a double yolk (very rare) and just seemed to know at that time that it was unusual and neat.
On the other hand, eggs have done me dirty for much too long now and I avoid them when I can (especially if I will be in polite company). My brother likes to cook breakfast and instead of telling me to knock it off or giving me a look that says I am being a goof/immature when I mention no eggs please, he just makes the kick-ass breakfast sandwiches for his family and I (when I am visiting his home) knowing to leave off the egg part of the sandwich.
Here I am talking about eggs doing me dirty on OTB, but it is the open forum, so anything goes. Lol.
Anyway, Kevin Drum has you covered with stories about how Trump wants to remove 60 Minutes from the air and other crazy stuff. A beloved show for many decades that is on a network that caters to America’s aging population, the very population that tends to vote GOP. Trump really is losing the plot and fortunately for the country, his base is starting to see him disintegrate in front of their eyes.
Also, as Charontwo and others have noted, there have been articles in the past week or two noting that yes, Trump is more popular than ever (it would seem) in place like Florida, but so what? Getting an even bigger share of the popular vote in Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and other hard core “red” states does absolutely nothing to help him with the electoral votes he needs to win.
What Trump really needed is the GOP to have succeeded in getting stronger in states like California so he could have come up with a scheme that might have succeeded in getting politicians in CA to agree to rank choice voting solution or something like that, something that would siphon away a not insignificant number of electoral votes from Harris/Walz and into his pocket.
Maybe I am the one whistling past graveyard here, but I suspect I am not the only Democratic leaning voter who is surprisingly not completely down in the dumps about the chances of Harris becoming our next President.
Bill J, having lost a father to cancer fairly recently your news is wonderful. You are so right, if the doctor thought things were much worse than suspected regarding your health, he would not be pushing out your next appointments with him. Glad to hear you will be able to meet with your fans at book signings, genuinely great to hear.
That being said, I strongly disagree with you that Trump in on track to win, but thank goodness that for better or worse, we really will know who was right in about 3 weeks. This whole prediction game of who will come out on top is starting to be exhausting and whatever the future really holds for America, I just want this election season to be over and done with.
@becca:
Sounds like a double abortion. I hope you’re not in Texas 😉
Tiger Beat on the Potomac is getting on the Trump is old, weak, and unstable act.
An ‘exhausted’ Trump says no to another interview (Politico)
If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and leaves duck sh*t all over, it must be a new designer baby fad.
It’s possible someday we may know enough about genetics, genomics, brain plasticity, neural function, and a whole lot more, and be able to say what is intelligence and how it manifests in different people. Even then, it’s uncertain we’ll be able to affect it much.
Consider IVF. The technique is over 40 years old, and it still has a rather low success rate and a very, very high cost. And we know a whole lot more of what goes on and how in such matters.
@DK: Well, it’s looking more and more to me like Trump thinks he isn’t going to win and is checking out. Not that I have a crystal ball.
Let’s bear in mind that campaigns have access to much better polling than the public polls.
@charontwo: This could certainly be different from the near countless revivals I’ve been to–it certainly is by topic. The “God’s Spirit is with us” sense the meetings evoke is definitely stirring. Yet over the days that follow, “The Spirit” returns to its regularly scheduled location, and the sense of presence wains. If the NAR has network in place to organize the faithful in coordinated action, that will be new in my experience with dominionists. But I’m unwilling to assert that there’s nothing new here.
I would advise your side to follow the advice that Jesus gave his disciples before the Ascension: if you think you need a sword, you should get one.
ETA: The passage is Luke 22: 36, but the occasion is at the time of his arrest. I recall another passage about buying a second cloak* and a sword if needed, but didn’t find that one in my cursory investigation. My advice remains unchanged.
*When Jesus sent out the disciples originally, they were instructed to take only one with them. It’s said to be a challenge to rely on God to protect.
@Jay L Gischer:
It’s more likely the Felon is upset at today’s release of Jack Smith indictment documents judge Chutkan authorized.
@Kathy: A difference of 6 IQ points is testing-day static. Then again, people were buying software that would shorten their time connecting to the Internet by X* nanoseconds back in the early days, too. No telling what people will buy.
*The number I recall was on the order of 20.
@DK:
DK, it is not just you and the usual folks on this site noticing that what is happening with Trump is different than his simply saying something like covefe, I really do feel that folks just skipped over the fact that Trump had a nervous breakdown at his rally/town hall with Kristi Noem and we are seeing the fallout from this event.
The poor guy is old, and his family and friends should be wrapping their arms around him and comforting him and just getting him to step away from politics and enjoy life with his family, and travel, and just relax and take it easy. Look, the Supreme Court has pretty much shielded Trump from going to jail, so he can step down and relax that he will not end up in prison.
Instead, the world watched as the poor guy had a breakdown and basically shrugged their shoulders and tried not to comment anymore on the event. There are too many folks around Trump that are in many ways much colder and nastier than Trump (such as Elon Musk), they want to wring him dry of any benefit they can derive from him and even with him having suffered a very public breakdown they feel there is still a bit more they can squeeze out of him, rather depressing and sad that they are doing this.
I also find it rather interesting that while there was some brief attempts to spin Harris’s interview on Fox as a debacle (it was not), I am just not seeing a real effort to talk about her appearance. Since she did fine (and that is all she needed to do, it was not a make or break situation going on Fox) no one wants to step up and give her some flowers for going on Fox.
We are definitely seeing the difference in age between her and Trump, she is going full steam ahead with rallies, etc., and Trump is cancelling appearances left and right. Even the staged town hall did him no favors, so seeing nothing needle moving come from Trump at the town hall his handlers seem okay with him slowing down. This is a mistake, way too much time was spent by both the GOP and institutions like the Washington Post and NYT getting everyone all hot and bothered about Biden’s age, so as sad as it will be, Trump needs to be brought out on stage and lashed to a pole to stay upright if need be, and hey…the energy from his base cheering him on should also keep him going until he has crossed the finish line.
Him giving up now is nuts, I do feel though that after he recharges by not having to attend rallies or do interviews for a few days, that he will be back to trashing America and threatening anyone who does not love him with going to jail.
If Bill J is right, the GOP should be smelling victory right about now, so they need to do what they have to do to keep Trump competitive all the way up to and including the day folks go to the ballot box to place their votes.
@just nutha:
I am not capable of discussing any of that intelligently, as I have no lived experience of Christianity.
What I know about Christianity is limited to what I have read about it.
@inhumans99: Ain’t nobody, no family, no “friends” gonna wrap their arms around that malignant husk.
@inhumans99:
Can’t happen, these people all care more about the benefits to themselves of another Trump administration. Trump himself can not do that either, psychologically he needs the adoring crowds and other signs of his superior power. He spent his first term spending many hours everyday on “executive time” consisting of Fox News watching and tweeting, I doubt he expects another term to be more strenuous.
If elected, the political people will need to keep him in place to avoid alienating his personality cult. Even if he becomes basically a zombie as he deteriorates, they will prop him up as long as he can sit at a desk and produce the scribble he calls a signature.
@just nutha:
There’s much controversy about just what IQ tests really measure, beyond being able to answer the test questions correctly.
On more important things, I’m embarking on a long term cooking project. Around two months from now, I should get the annual corporate whole turkey. Usually I give it to my mom, who eventually cooks it for a family meal sometime over the course of the year. The last time, she told me she doesn’t want it next year. Too much hassle, and it’s not really that good.
So, I decided to cook it myself, for a family meal. What I want to do is cut it into parts and cook them. This way I can pull out each piece as it gets done. I also want to air fry the skin to get it crispy, and need to decide whether to do that before or after sticking them in the oven. lastly, I will take the rendered fat to make gravy.
Over the course of this year, playing with the air fryer, I made turkey breasts and thighs this way, and they were both better than what mom usually makes with the whole turkey. IMO, roasting a whole turkey inevitable has uneven results, as parts reach their ideal temps before others. The notion of cooking it whole is to be able to set it whole on the table, and carving it. the irony is my mom never did this. She had it carved before serving 🙂
I may do a couple of breasts later this year to test cooking methods. I’ll also be looking up seasonings. it’s not something I usually bother with, but the marinated chicken thighs are the best chicken pieces I make.
@Mr. Prosser:
Of course not. What’s in it for them?
Never forget that if Trump wins he will be out within two year at the most (I give him less than a year). Then we get Vance, who is already 100% bought and paid for by Peter Thiel. Imagine how much more he can get from Musk.
Some sad news: A friend whom I’ve known since I was 15 died suddenly yesterday. RIP, Carol.
Here on Oahu, you’d hardly know a national election is happening. A few signs for local races, but I’ve not seen any signs for the presidential race. Fine by me, but it’s notable.
@just nutha: The comment was also used in a plethora of medieval period arguments as to why the Catholic Church shouldn’t have temporal police power.
(I have to say—with all the different things I have worked at my mind is stuffed with a really eclectic collection of information.)
@just nutha: I just reread Luke 21 and 22. That quotation is during/after the Last Supper, and it seems very odd in context. Just before it Jesus says, “Didn’t I send you out without purses, cloaks, or swords, and you were just fine, right?”
Later on, they tell him “we have two swords” and he says, “that should be enough”.
And then, when the temple guards come, and there’s a bit of a fight, Jesus says, “enough of this” and heals the ear of the guard who had been hurt.
And so in between these two events, he says “sell your cloak and buy a sword”. It’s strange enough to be credible, rather than some copyist insertion. Maybe it’s sarcastic/ironic?
Given the things Jesus describes in Luke 21, a sword wouldn’t help much. But who really knows. This is the kind of thing that makes the Bible into a kind of Rohrshach inkblot. You can pull out any text to mean whatever you need it to mean.
And quite frankly, I’ve heard that idea espoused by devout believers who diligently studied the Bible and theology.
I live in a small subdivision in a fairly rural NH town (we’re about a mile from a dairy farm). We got our first GOTV visit/reminder from a Democratic-affiliated group yesterday. This has made me feel MILES better. We’d already been visited at this point in prior years, so I was wondering what was going on.
Not allowing myself to get too excited. It’s the hope that kills you, and all that.
@CSK:
My condolences to you on the loss of your friend.
@Mr. Prosser: Trump, in an odd way reminds me of Frank Sinatra, or at least my memory of Sinatra’s last few years. Rumors persisted for decades that Sinatra was an abusive asshole, and when he started to suffer from dementia, his family and handlers continued to send him out on stage. Towards the end he would forget where he was and wander off, but the grueling pace continued. I always assumed there was some degree of payback there.
Mark my words, Donnie and Eric will have Trump fronting every two bit scam they can dream up, until he shuffles off this mortal coil. And then sell his image rights to anyone and everyone.
@MarkedMan: I doubt that we’ll get Uday and Qsay. Much more likely Steve Miller, Laura Trump, and Steve Bannon.
@MarkedMan: TrumpAI — a ChatGPT knockoff trained on the speeches and thoughts of Donald J. Trump.
It’s a product that will come. Maybe an app in your phone, that has an animated Trump who can tell you bedtime stories about how he wants to fuck his daughter.
AI hallucinations will become a thing of the past, as any word salad will be authentically Trumpy.
@MarkedMan:
I don’t think el Felon is the victim here.
@Gustopher:
Wouldn’t an El Weirdo genuine stupidity app be much more believable?
More useful, too. You could integrate it into expert systems for any complex subject: politics, finance, policy, etc. It would give genuinely stupid advice, and then you’d know to do the exact opposite.
@Jay L Gischer: The comment that I read today was suggesting that bringing swords might have been connected with wanting to be sure that Jesus could be linked with insurrectionists. That comment added verses 37 and 38 as context.
It’s a notion consistent with Jesus needing to fulfill all the elements of all Messianic prophecy. Beyond that, the assertion is new to me.
ETA: And the notion that the Bible means what we say it does resonates with reader response theory. I’m leaning more toward notions that “the inconsistencies” reflect failure to see the “whole picture,” but that theory merely presents a different set of questions.
@inhumans99:
The arc of a love affair is one of seemingly boundless manic energy but if it crashes, sudden and utter indifference to everything. Trump’s love affair is with himself. There certainly could be a medical issue, but if he has fallen out of love with himself there will be no arms to fall into.
@Kathy:
I don’t think Sinatra was the victim either. You reap what you sow
@Jen:
Is it that NH is not expected to be competitive at the presidential level this year?
This is interesting. According to Stephen Novella, the mission of the Europa Clipper is to determine how habitable Europa is.
Also, as noted before, the probe’s trajectory takes it first to Mars for a gravity assist, and then for a second one at Earth. This is not unheard of. Galileo, another probe that orbited Jupiter, also got an assist from Earth (and I think from Venus). That time, NASA turned the probe’s instruments on Earth (this is detailed in one of Sagan’s books, but I forget which one).
How about doing the same with the Clipper, and try to determine how habitable Earth is?
Yes, we already know that. We live on Earth, after all*. But how would that look to a probe? Suppose an alien probe passed through our system on a similar mission. Would it determine Earth is very habitable? Or, for that matter, suppose we eventually send probes to other stars on such missions.
*Citation needed.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1847062392728887673
Number of ballots returned is also markedly higher than 2020, the COVID shut-in year.
@Kathy:
We’ve done that with Juno.
@dazedandconfused:
I didn’t know that…
I’ve been looking for info on Galileo’s flyby of Earth. As I recall, it was quite detailed. But I’ve found nothing so far.
One problem in reading audiobooks, is that it’s really hard to search for one passage in them.
@Grumpy realist:
The other major argument being of even such self-identified Christian rulers as Constantine, Theodosius, Clovis and Charlemagne:
“An interesting argument for the temporal supremacy of the clergy, dear bishop. Now, exactly how painfully do you wish to die?”
Christianity as we know it now is, imuho, enormously conditioned by its adaptation to first being a minority semi-Jewish sect on the Roman Empire, and then to being the junior partner of “Christian” rulers who operated mainly on a basis of Roman and/or Germanic law.
Then we have the Church of England, which was entirely based from the outset upon being a partner of the monarchy and gentry.
See the Church Established, with bishops in the House of Lords, and the (minority) role of clergy as Justices of the Peace.
Something that seems to be sliding under the media-attention radar a bit, and not being openly addressed by politicians at state-level.
North Korea now has around a divisional force (10,000 troops) in Ukraine.
And this is quite obviously approved by Beijing.
This is, in effect, a direct military intervention, sanctioned by China, in a matter of vital interest to Europe.
The immortal rule of international relations is: “Repayment: a favour for a favour; a hurt for a hurt.”
This is not a favour, and shall be repaid on such terms.
@Dutchgirl: Congrats! Enjoy your peace 🙂 I’m in the swing state of Michigan, where I’ve received something like 7 mailings in the last 3 days supporting Mike Peters for the Senate. I hope Slotkin’s team has a response and soon, because people are early voting and Peters smells blood.
@charontwo:
I dropped off my Pennsylvania mail-in ballot on October 12th, to make sure nothing could happen between then and November to prevent my vote from being cast. By waiting to vote in person, Republicans risk a car breakdown, the flu, an unexpected work shift, etc. keeping them from voting.
@JohnSF:
Though of course you have the massive Pope vs Emperor contests of the Medieval period; wherein they ended up solidly screwing each other, and laying the basis for the (sort of) national states of England, France, and Spain, on the one hand, and the city states of Italy on the other.
And ended any hope of reversing the Christendom/Islam division of the Roman Mediterranean-centric polity.
Why does this fell like a peek at America’s future?
It’s too ridiculous to even discuss, but all too real just the same. I imagine if someone writes a story or a TV show or movies with a woman without children, they’ll be fined.
What I find more remarkable is the xenophobia and paranoia, that Russia’s low birthrate is part of a conspiracy by the west… It’s Stalin’s country all over again.
@Kathy:
It’s ALL a conspiracy by the Wicked Witches of the West!
The really stupid thing is, you have an autocratic government that can implement whatever damn policy re. taxation, benefits, allowances etc they deem fit. And controls the media and the established church.
Yet they still can’t get it done.
And don’t stop for a moment to think why that might be.
@JohnSF:
There’s a lot of different stories about the Norks in Ukraine. Seems there is general agreement there have been some small teams for quite some time, technicians for some of the missiles they gave the Russians, but the reports of combat forces varies from 1500 near Vladivostok to 10,000 in Ukraine. All over the place, which suggests a BS campaign of some sort. Not surprising most major news outlets are sitting on it for the moment.
@CSK:
Sorry about your friend. Sucks, especially when it’s sudden.
I have a lot of issues with President Obama’s foreign policy decisions.
But, by heaven, he is one hell of a public speaker.
Not to mention cool as f@ck.
Love it!
Remember the spate of airport near misses a while ago?
They’re baaaaack.