Outside the Beltway

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1. charontwo says:
   Friday, 18 October 2024 at 04:48

   Contains chart of bias in past elections, both sides have been favored:

   “WaPo Gift”

   The GOP’s shrinking electoral college edge

   The evidence is growing that the electoral college might not hurt Democrats as much as before in the Trump era — if it does at all.

   Could Republicans’ electoral college advantage be fading?

   It sure looks as though it might be — despite Harris’s running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), recently (briefly) calling for a national popular vote.

   snip

   When the New York Times ran its own numbers last month, the pro-Trump electoral college bias was just 0.7 points.

   Today, it looks as though it might be even less of a Trump advantage — if it’s one at all.

   It’s not at all clear what the tipping-point state might be, because all of the swing states are so close. But right now The Post’s polling average shows it’s either Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. Winning all three would deliver the 270 electoral votes Harris needs, and she leads by about two points in each of them. That’s virtually the same as her two-point edge in national polls.

   So it’s looking as though electoral college bias could be, more or less, a wash.

   Why might the electoral college edge be narrowing for Republicans? Bronner pointed to Democrats appearing to bank fewer votes in large states, which pulled down their share of the popular vote but didn’t really impact the electoral college. The Times’s Nate Cohn similarly noted that Trump seemed to be doing better than he previously had in noncompetitive states where Republicans made some of their bigger gains in the 2022 midterm elections.

   Whatever the case, the evidence suggests the electoral college isn’t primed to bite Democrats as hard as it has previously in the Trump era.

   That doesn’t mean it won’t matter; in a very close race like this one, even a small electoral college bias could mean the popular-vote loser is elected for the third time since 2000 (remember Bush v. Gore?). But at least for now, Democrats’ popular-vote promoters such as Walz don’t seem to have quite as much to fear from the electoral college.

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2. Bill Jempty says:
   Friday, 18 October 2024 at 06:00

   My doctor’s appointment went better than anticipated yesterday. The doctor wants me to have another MRI in two months before deciding to do a biopsy. Despite my history, he seemed guardedly optimistic. This doctor is supposed to be the top doctor for this in the area. If he is worried, a biopsy now rather than next year would be the course of action.

   Darn, I got to do those book signings now. 9 in 15 days. I get tired just thinking of all the plane connections I’m going to have to make.

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