Friday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Friday, December 6, 2024
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51 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a retired Professor of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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Kevin Kruse reposted a Politico article that is 10 years old and it makes for good reading. Nick Hanauer, a high tech billionaire, wrote it as a warning to his fellow ultra-rich guys, and it’s still relevant today, if not more so than back then.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-coming-for-us-plutocrats-108014/
@Not the IT Dept.: It has been 10 years coming but when you look at the fact that everyday a couple of billionaires who are considered by Trump to be qualified just by the amount of money they possess, I hope that day is sooner than later.
Texas legislators don’t care. Facts just confuse them.
A 2006 study found undocumented immigrants contribute more than they cost Texas. The state hasn’t updated it since.
@Scott:
This line:
And this line:
https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-mexico-president-claudia-sheinbaum-fentanyl-response-rcna182496
@Scott:
And also this:
https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-social-security-republicans-elon-musk-rcna182711
Medicare Advantage plans are gigantic scams, they are not really Medicare at all, they are just shitty conventional health insurance sold as an alternative to being on real Medicare.
Long piece describing in detail how crummy they are:
“Hartmann”
snip
Plus putting up with the in network/out of network bullshit that can make finding a nearby provider difficult.
snip
Etc. Etc. lots more at the link.
@charontwo: When I turned 65, I dutifully contacted an insurance broker to get a bid for “real” Medicare like my parents had taken years ago. And just as they had been, I was offered coverage at a premium of ~$700/month (prescription drug coverage extra). Alas, my budget didn’t allow for that size of a monthly outlay, and still doesn’t, so I found myself, with heavy heart, compelled to accept the offer of a Medicare Advantage policy, from United Healthcare*, no less, for which so far I have never reached my annual deductible cap (of $5000), and have never had a procedure or referral denied–7 years and running.
I do wish those who can afford “real” Medicare well, though. If you can afford it, it’s really great coverage. And the premiums for prescription drugs, dental, and non-medical vision have gone down, based on what I hear.
*I did hit a snag with UHC when I moved to Portland because UHC writes more Advantage plans than it’s system can cover. I had to switch to back to Kaiser–my carrier while I had health insurance as a teacher.
Romania’s court annulled the first round of the presidential election.
I move we return to the 1990s, and live in times that were interesting in a much nicer way.
Things are really moving FAST in Syria.
HTS appear to have Homs enveloped, and cut the Damascus-Tartus road.
Looks like the Syrian Army forces in Homs have mostly decided to “reinforce Damascus”, rather rapidly.
Rebel units in the south active around Rebels in the south are moving on Daraa and seem to have taken the Jordan crossing.
The SDF (Kurds, mostly) appear to be taking Deir ez-Zoor on the Euphrates, and clearing south of the river in Raqqa.
Even reports of SDF units at Abukamal where the Euphrates crosses the Iraq border.
If that’s gone, that’s the last highway from Iraq cut.
Apart from Route 2 out of Al Walid; but what should squat beside Route 2 in a rather unfriendly manner?
US Base An Tanf.
At this rate even Damascus may just collapse in a rout.
And Iran is swept off the board in Syria, Hezbollah is in even more of a vice, and Russia looks set to lose the lynch-pin of its operations in the Middle East and Africa.
Repercussions likely for Houthis in Yemen, Haftar in Bengahzi in Libya, perhaps across the Sahel.
NASA says Artemis missions will be delayed.
This is about as newsworthy as man bites cheese. But there are some interesting bits:
And assuming we had wings, we would all fly*.
It’s not a terrible idea to scrap a very expensive, limited launch system. But it remains to be seen what Xtarship can do, how much it will cost, and how long will it take. I’m sure the great Cisgender Mars of Phobos God Emperor Xlon could promise the felon a landing on Mars by next week, and he’d totally buy it (if Xlon the Cisgender great, etc.etc. were stupid enough to do so).
Here’s my prediction: 90% chance not a single person will land on the Moon this decade.
*Well, not really. Human pectoral muscles can’t provide the energy for lift. But we might all glide.
@Kathy: Interesting that some countries seem to take Russian election meddling seriously. Countries that don’t have the Republican Party.
@JohnSF: While anything that happens to Assad is more than well deserved, the opposition is probably no better, except perhaps the Kurds.
One more reason to get ourselves weaned off fossil fuels and take away the leverage this entire region has. Extraction economies are almost always corrupt, oppressive breeders of opposition that inevitably fall into religious or nationalistic terrorism.
@Kathy:
But if we did have wings, presumably we’d have evolved the pecs.
I think I located OzarkHillbilly‘s obit, if anyone would like to read it.
http://www.amick-burnettfuneralchapels.com/obituary/thomas-brashear
@CSK:
But then we’d be so unattractive, sexual selection would trend towards extinction.
@CSK:
His whole family appears to have lived their whole lives in the same part of Missouri.
I find that remarkable, considering how many places I have lived and how scattered around all my relatives are.
@MarkedMan:
Yes in general re oil-states, but Syria is not, and never has been, a major oil producer.
The oil it has is useful for the domestic economy, and government revenue (about a fifth of the total before the cicvil war, iirc) but its not as much of a big deal as it is in the Gulf.
The main revenues of the Assad clan lately came from smuggling and drugs.
Captagon in particular.
@JohnSF: Quick question: what source do you follow that’s most helpful and up to date?
@Kathy:
Nah. We’d have adapted to that, too.
About the shooting of the insurance executive, I feel we’re all missing the big picture. So, let’s focus on what’s really important: how’s the share price doing?
@Not the IT Dept.:
I thought of that article when I read this one in the NYT’s (free link)
Lots of anger and hate percolating through the country and eventually the most angry are going to realize that tormenting the trans, immigrants etc isn’t going to address their complaints. The oft predicted violence may come and the targets won’t be those that are expected.
@charontwo:
Add to that, Medicare Advantage plans cost the government more.
@Sleeping Dog: Correct. The Oligarchs may be having their backs watched, in fact they probably are. Will be a great time for private security companies.
@CSK:
Could be but, Ozark lived for many years in south St. Louis and was a StL area union carpenter. Also from exchanges I had with him, I believe that he lived in the Sullivan, MO area and one of his sons lives in NOLA.
@Mr. Prosser:
There’s another article in today’s Times about how the phones at private security companies are ringing off the hook and a second on how exec security is a growing cost for business.
@CSK: I don’t that’s Ozark. He mentioned several times that he’d been married twice, and the first wife was a real piece of work.
@Jax: I think he said his second wife was Spanish (Mallorca?) and was in his mid 60s.
@Sleeping Dog: Yep–the son in NOLA, the St. Louis stint, second marriage, and for whatever reason I didn’t have him residing in the Oran area (I had him in Franklin County, which lines up with Sullivan). Also, no mention at all of spelunking/caving in the obit.
Found this back when we first heard of Ozark Hillbilly’s demise:
In this October 2023 post he says he is 65:
Another post:
I was married once when I was in my 50s.
There will be no mention of this in my obituary.
About Christian Nationalism and Project 2025:
https://digbysblog.net/2024/12/06/its-christian-nationalists-behind-the-curtain/
People like Pete Hegseth, Pam Bondi, Russell Vought,
https://www.salon.com/2024/12/06/ushers-in-a-christian-deep-state-maga-moves-to-gut-the-constitution/
https://x.com/RightWingWatch/status/1863966391595892900
And their plans to keep the President on board with their goals are???
” … concentrate all the power in the hands of the president [committed to enforcing] a “biblical worldview” … ”
Dictators not being known for their adherence to the goals of the people who installed them.
@Mister Bluster:
My father was married at least 3 times. Mom was Dad’s 2nd(?) wife.
Dad served in the USN during WWII. He married a woman from the SF Bay area sometime during the war or shortly after it ended. The marriage didn’t last long but there was one child. A son who died in prison. Dad had almost no contact with his in-law except his late son’s wife. I think he was related to NFL QB John Brodie by marriage.
My father never talked to me about his first marriage. I picked up this vague information over the years while he was still alive. When Dad died no instrutctions were left to me to contact any of Dad’s in-laws.
It may not have been necessary. In the early 90’s, Dad had a non-romantic female friend nicknamed Tee who I got a feeling may have been Dad’s grandchild. Tee, who was very friendly, remained in touch with me after Dad died but I haven’t heard from her in 15 or more years. I’d ask her if I Tee after made contact** with me again.
After my Mom died, Dad was married/in a relationship with Millie*. I couldn’t stand Millie and the feeling was mutual. The relationship Dad had with Millie didn’t last long.
My mother was married before Dad. I grew up thinking my sister Patty, brothers Chris and Charlie, were Dad’s biological kids but they weren’t. After Dad died I found his papers adopting them. Patty gave me more details too. Around five years ago, I learned I have another half sister. Mom had a child out of wedlock and put the baby up for adoption.
I’ve been married once. Only had one gf before that and never had sex before my wedding night. Yes I had no life from my teens till I was 28.
*- Dad had other lady friends after Mom died, but Millie was the only one I didn’t care for. Actually one who I forget the name of, sounded and acted like a character out of the Beverly Hillbillies. I liked her, she was very down to earth but Dad stopped seeing her.
**- Tee used to call once or twice a year to see how I and Leonita were doing. I hope something didn’t happen to Tee.
@just nutha: My best wishes to you for health and long life. I don’t doubt your experience at all, but it raises some questions for me.
You cite a cost that is about what I pay for Medicare. My premium is adjusted because they know the income I report on my taxes and well, I have the means. It serves me pretty well.
That means someone with lesser means (I don’t want to be mean!) should pay less, not the same. So something seems off about this picture. I can’t say what, but it might be worth looking into.
And no, I don’t recommend a Medicare Advantage program. I’m not super trusting of agents either. Since they don’t get any commission for signing you up for basic Medicare.
People are honest, and also they aren’t honest. I’m sure you know that, though.
Paul Krugman is retiring.
https://www.nytco.com/press/paul-krugman-retires-as-times-columnist/
@Jay L Gischer: I’m not understanding what you are telling me here very well, and I think I may not have been clear myself. The $700/month premium I was citing was for what is sometimes called “Medigap” coverage. To the degree that I understand the system, Medicare itself–parts A &B from the original act–costs the same amount for everyone, ~$140/month, unless people qualify for Medicaid, too.
The $700 premium I was citing is for supplemental insurance that some people carried to pay for things OG Medicare doesn’t pay for. One either has to 1) purchase supplemental insurance, 2) enroll in a Medicare Advantage plan, or 3) pay charges not covered out of pocket (or with a Medical Savings Account). Since the passage of HIPPA, or Obamacare as it is sometimes called, access to option 3 has been curtailed, I think, to some degree. In any event, most people end up in Medicare Advantage plans because it is the only affordable option. The fact that the agent who offers assistance to some people who choose to take it* gets paid by whichever plan the customer chooses may be the only feature of the system that works well. YMMV.
*I’ve only talked to an agent twice during the time I’ve been on the program. The first time I signed up (and rejected “all you can eat” coverage as outside my budget), and a second time, when the agent told me I had selected the best MA plan offered in my area and he couldn’t recommend changing.
Moscow Times says Putin has ordered civilian Russians to leave Syria. The Telegraph says Putin is disgusted with Assad and has no plans to rescue him. If Russia has to give up its naval and air base in Syria, that is a big blow. They will be out of the Eastern Mediterranean. Maybe Libya or Algeria will give shelter to the three frigates (IIRC) and the one sub?
One quick comment before I head back to the salt mine:
Assuming the felon doesn’t completely wreck everything and makes himself dictator de facto, it’s very likely the Democrats will retake the House and Senate in 2026. If this happens, when will impeachment season tickets go on sale?
@Jay L Gischer:
Medicare Part B for me is $185/month. I have one of the most expensive Medigap options offered and pay $364/month for it.
I nearly never have any copays with the Medigap option I chose – I can go for years without having one, and they have always been trivial.
@charontwo: Yeah, I pay more. I’m sure living in CA affects what I pay. And my income. But I only pay Medicare. I don’t engage any third party insurers. I don’t really remember the names of the programs, but it definitely includes Part B. And it’s more than that.
The costs you are citing seem like what I expect. I have to pay more, and I accept that. I can afford it after all.
@Scott:
Various twitterati I follow, and what they re-post, BUT cross check with Guardian and BBC.
The latter two are more cautious, and therefore sometimes behind the curve.
Whereas twitter is often more immediate, but sometimes prone to “rumint”.
For Syria, @OzKaterji; for that and other places @APHClarkson, @tobiaschneider, @JimmySecUK
And quite a few others, but those are a good start.
UPDATE: looks like Russia is evacuating Khmeimim Air Base.
“So long, and thanks for all the fish!”
Looks more likely Mike Reynolds may have been right, and me wrong, about the Russian fleet departing Tartus.
Ironic sidenote: the Russian are going to find it tricky to shift a lot of heavy gear out of Syria, as Ukraine has sunk a shitload of their transport ships in the Black Sea.
Oopsie, Vlad.
Has anyone updated Tulsi Gabbard?
*smirk*
@Michael Reynolds:
The Haftar faction in Bengahzi in Libya might.
At a price.
Renegotiable on the daily, lol.
(The Haftaris were making a lot of money out of the Syrian smuggling biz connection.)
But that’s a weak reed, and out of range of a lot of Russian air transport,
Algeria unlikely to risk their deals with EU to help Russia out of the dung-heap.
Either Iran, or to the Baltic, would be my guesses.
But what do I know?
“Pick a card, any card…”
@JohnSF:
Well, I’m very dialed in. I had a secret source. IIRC it’s called the BBC. Hush hush. Don’t tell anyone!
@Michael Reynolds:
Sneaky devil! 😉
I remain astonished how fuckin’ fast the Syrian regime collapsed.
Still: as yet no indications HTS are seriously hitting the coastal area.
I still expect a pause for negotiation before they try that.
Good news! My Dad’s blood pressure machine is off by about 20 on the systolic, and 10 on the dystolic, after many matching tests at the clinic today.
My average on the clinic machine is still 152/100, though. So also a prescription of Lisinopril. Oh, AND…..I’m diabetic. No big surprise, there, I had gestational diabetes while I was pregnant with both my kids, figured it was coming.
Now, that said…..I’m guessing some folks around here can recommend better blood pressure machines than my Dad’s old one ( I think he got it free from the VA). Which ones do you all like?
Might I point out at this time:
The French were right about using force against Assad in 2013, and Obama was wrong?
And a whole lot of nasty consequences flowed from the US failure at that point.
Due both to the administration not wanting to get into a war, and the Republicans wanting to shaft Obama.
Question for Americans:
Why on earth might anyone think other countries might regard the US as a whimsical, capricious, and unreliable actor, even before the advent of Trump?
Answer: Syria.
See also: Houthis.
@JohnSF:
We do have a consistency problem. On the one hand you have someone like General Marshall, as in the Marshall Plan, which saved Europe from poverty and communism and probably a few civil wars, and basically laid the table for the triumph of the West. And then you have George W. Bush and Dick Cheney who laid the table for so much shit it’s hard to fathom.
President A comes up with strategy B and four years later President C comes up with strategy D. Or we just forget about the world for a few years and wait for something to happen, and when it does happen, it is somehow never our fault.
The refrain used to be that we didn’t want the US to be the world’s policeman. But sometimes the world needs a policeman, and we’re the ones with the power. Though it’d be nice of the policeman didn’t cycle between indifference and randomly blowing shit up.
We’re about to find out what happens with a malignant narcissist in charge who thinks the US military are mercenaries, and the object of foreign policy is to build hotels with a big gold T on them. It’s going to be a very embarrassing time for Americans traveling abroad.
As Groucho sang long ago, Hello, I must be going. . .
Russians evacuating civilians, Iran evacuating RGC, how long til Assad is on a plane to. . . Hmm. Moscow, still?
Just got the eMail from the Social Security Administration notifying me of my increased benefit for 2025. Due to inflation the gross increase is $44/month. However the deduction for Medicare increased more than the rate of inflation so I will net a whopping $3/month increase on my benefit deposit!
I sure can use an extra $3 every month.
In the corner of paradise where I live regular unleaded gasoline is selling for $2.959/gal.
Just bought a half gallon of orange juice on sale for $2.99.
Two of my last 3 one dollar scratch off lotto tickets won me $35. That went straight into the gas tank.
The used DVD store is having a moving sale. 50¢ DVD’s. I wonder if I can find 6 titles that I want to watch?
Three senior coffees at Mickey D’s are $3.36 tax included.
Maybe I should do something smart and put it in my savings account and have an extra $36 at the end of the year.
Decisions, decisions…
@Michael Reynolds:
Marshall, Leahy, and Truman are among my exemplars of statesmanship in US history.
Just a bit behind FDR, Washington, and Grant.
Lincoln stands alone.
And always will.
It’s a bit difficult for someone of my generation and background, that so admired the United States, for all its problems, as the bulwark of liberty, to see it become just another little country under such a person as Trump.
Bush and Cheney (or indeed, Obama, in some respects) may have been misguided; but they were not little, petty, squalid men.
IMUHO.
@JohnSF:
I’m a big fan of Grant. My pseudonym is Michael Grant, not a coincidence.
I imagine you’ve heard the story of when Grant was so poor he was selling firewood, (to Longstreet, among others IIRC), he inherited a slave worth $1000. He could have sold him, instead he manumitted him. I believe that’s true, but it may have been a bit of hagiography. Either way, Grant was a much better general than Lee. Vicksburg was all his virtues on display: persistence, imagination and daring. The first general in the war to figure out that you don’t withdraw and lick your wounds after a battle, you get up the next day and attack.
And yeah, Lincoln. We got very, very lucky with that man.
ETA: Plus he could write.
@Jax:
I use a Microlife blood pressure monitor with an upper arm cuff. It’s about 20 years old, so specific models and tech features will have changed, but it’s durable and fairly easy to use. I recently recorded daily readings for several weeks. The only issue was that I felt compelled to redo occasionally when the reading seemed high or low—sometimes needed to adjust the cuff to get more repeatable readings.