Friday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Friday, September 19, 2025
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64 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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BlueSky.
Dear Wife had a great birthday yesterday. Her sister, nephew, and cousin came for it. They brought gifts- two purses and Prada perfume, plus a bottle of champagne, birthday balloon, and a cake. Dinner was spare ribs plus pancit. It was a crowded and noisy night but a good time was had by all.
My getting a similar birthday celebration will be kind of difficult the next two years. I’ll be sailing on a cruise ship off South America* for both my 65th and 66th editions. January 12th is my date of birth. Can Holland America serve me a slice of vanilla cake? We’ll have to wait and see .
My nephew Kent is as tall as I or a little over 6′. When I married DW, other than one cousin named Mario I can’t remember her having any family taller than 5’7 or 5’8. Kent was the nephew who accompanied me** on my book signing tour last fall. He’s working as a nurse in Sarasota now. DW and I paid for him to go to nursing school. Kent is very devoted to us.
After everybody leaves this morning, preparations for DW and my trip to Europe will begin in earnest. We’re getting fully stocked up on our prescription medications today when one of us goes to Publix.
The Miami Dolphins lost again last night. It wasn’t too bad a game but still the team is still 0-3. I wouldn’t be surprised that by the time I return from Italy that coach Mike McDaniel is no longer in charge of the phins.
* An Antarctica cruise starting in Chile next January, A grand voyage in 2027 that starts in Florida but after passing through the Panama Canal makes port of calls in Peru and Ecuador before sailing west into the Pacific Ocean.
**- DW hadn’t retired yet.
Trump Secured the Border, So Where Are the Jobs? (WSJ)
Because scaring away migrant labor isn’t border security, it’s economic folly: immigration creates economic growth, and thus creates jobs. Securing the border was what Congress tried to do with Sen. Lankford’s cruelty-free bipartisan bill that Trump killed, to deny Biden and the country a win.
Jamelle Bouie: The Trump Fantasy Is Unraveling (NYT)
Oopsy-daisy.
The Florida headline of the day- Witness in 2006 shooting of Miami’s Bryan Pata found alive after years of being presumed dead
Always fun to watch the blowback.
Pakistan – the nuclear power – just signed a full alliance [mutual defense pact] with Saudi Arabia. The US does not have such a thing. Saudi Arabia now has a greater pact with Pakistan – and thus China&Russia – than it does with the US. Black and white text includes Pakistan stationing troops on Saudi soil. This is obviously in response to the US permitting Israel to missile Qatar.
Whoopsie!
Farmers say they can’t profit off crops at current prices (K8, Arkansas)
Good, because we don’t want to bail y’all out. This is what they voted for. Because trans woke DEI cat-eating Haitian migrant border. Enjoy touching that stove, fellas.
@DK:
Well they will get bailed out. No way Trump if going to piss-off his base.
@DK:
Well they will get bailed out. No way Trump if going to piss-off his base.
@Bill Jempty: Sounds like a wonderful few years. Quick question: Do you use a real live travel agent or agency or do you use online services like cruise.com, etc?
Thank you for your service!
Mass deportations ensnare immigrant service members, veterans
However the tragedy of the killing unfolded, Team T can’t seem to not step on their collective private parts.
Every action has a perverse opposite reaction. That the Jimmy Kimmel story is knocking the Main Event off the top spot is an example.
Because President Goldfish forgot he was pals with MBS when he greenlit the Qatar hit for Bibi, now the Saudis are saddling up with the nukes of Pakistan.
Of course, fanning the Epstein fire for years is backfiring pretty spectacularly.
All this revenge and retribution reminds me that an eye for an eye and soon the whole world is blind. Of course, Ghandi was woke so what did he know?
The lawsuits begin.
Texas professor fired after calling U.S. government ‘bloodthirsty’—now he’s suing
@becca:
Very astute observation.
@becca:
Everyone knew the overreach was coming. Didn’t know exactly how, and didn’t expect Jimmy Kimmel, of all people, to get to play 1st Amendment martyr.
As expected, Democrats are rushing to press the issue. Murphy, Bicameral Group of Democrats Announce Plans to Introduce Legislation to Protect Free Speech, Safeguard Against Politically Motivated Harassment and Prosecutions (Press Release)
Same should be done for President Trumpflation’s job-killing illegal tariffs and his repulsive assault on 5th Amendment due process.
I’ve started watching more non-English fare. I watched a couple of eps of Chief of War, the Momoa series which is entirely in Hawaiian. And I’m pretty enmeshed in an Irish detective series called, Bogland, which is 95% in Gaelic.
Of course the Irish do use various loanwords. The obvious ones like, ‘phone’ and ‘laptop’ but one loanword dominates. Its the irreplaceable, ‘fuck.’ And all it’s variants as well. ‘Fuck you,’ ‘fuck off,’ ‘what the fuck?’ It’s ‘garble garble garble garble fuck garble garble.’
Good fuckin’ show.
@Rick DeMent:
Kind of depends on whether he expects there to be an honest 2028 prez election.
@DK:
Where does he think the USDA’s budget comes from?
There are two elements of the Kimmel story that I find curious:
1. That people keep saying he was canceled for the single Charlie Kirk joke. It was a pretty flat, low-grade, low-controversy joke. If people aren’t seeing that joke as a pretext for getting rid of Jimmy Kimmel writ large, they aren’t looking.
2. There’s not enough attention being paid to the station-owning conglomerates for following through on the FCC’s threat. Nexstar and Sinclair in particular have their own political agendas and, at least for Sinclair, they line up pretty close to the administration. Whether or not Disney might have withstood pressure from the FCC, it would be a much bigger lift to withstand pressure from such large holders of their local station licenses. This is less of a direct First Amendment issue and more of an oligarch/concentration of ownership issue.
@Michael Reynolds: we have been watching lots of Acorn and Britbox.
Hidden is a Welsh show and goes between Welsh and English. Several other shows are in Gaelic and Scottish Gaelic with English dialogue, too. Beautiful languages. We’ll check out Bogland, too.
Not much of the old tongue in Derry Girls, but watching a show about The Troubles in Ireland, written by one who lived through it, can be therapeutic now. I’m on my third go-thru.
@Scott:
For our cruises, and many things related to it (hotels, plane reservations, tours in stops before and after our cruises are done) are handled by a travel agency. Sophie and her mother Sonia. We knew Sonia from our church. She’s done lots of cruising personally and knows some of our planned or previous vacations very well. Like Rio, Santiago, and Buenos Aires for our Antarctica trip plus Italy. Sonia is actually in her early 80’s and retired but helped us with her knowledge.
As I have mentioned here on other occasions, I did lots of traveling from 1996-2002. Back then I did all the arrangements. My cold turkey traveling spell that followed till 2024, made me feel less than confident making travel arrangements. Especially if they are going to be complicated like my trip to Italy will be.
If you have Bluesky you should take a look at what ICE is doing in Broadview, IL. Only available to logged in users through.
Kat is running for congress. This one should be visible to everyone.
@Bill Jempty: @Bill Jempty: @Michael Reynolds:
Michael,
I’d tell you to bug off but if we ever met in person I’d be afraid you’d apply a Glasgow kiss to me.
@becca:
I cite Derry Girls to people all the time as an example of brilliantly efficient and effective writing. In just the first two eps, screen time totaling maybe 45 minutes, Lisa McGee, the show runner, introduces more than a dozen, very specific, unique, well-developed and funny AF characters. It’s just an amazing thing to pull off. Sister Michael? The boring uncle? The Wee English Fella? And of course the girls themselves. That woman needs a couple Emmys.
@Bill Jempty:
I’ve been to Glasgow a couple times. I don’t know what it is about that city, but I’d happily drink in an Edinburgh pub, but be much more cautious in Glasgow. The comedian and godfather of podcasting, Marc Maron who has been sober for a long time, talks about Glasgow being the drunkest place he’s ever been.
@Scott: Yeah, when I read that story I felt sure that was a stone-cold lock of a lawsuit, if Alter decided to bring it. I expect the U. president knew that too, but decided that firing would cost him less money than telling Abbot to stuff it in his ear.
AND, doing things this way produces more outrage churn. More motivation to get rid of those crooked judges. More reason to destroy the rule of law.
@Gavin:
Doubtless this is reminder to the US by the al Saud that they have options.
But it’s not that new a thing.
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have had defence agreements for some time, though the new agreement firms them up a bit.
The Saudis bought Chinese DF-3 (CH-SS-2) intermediate-range ballistic missiles, that are only suitable for nuclear weapons use, due to high CEP, back in the 1990’s.
And I’d bet a lot of money on said missiles being set up to mate to Pakistani warheads: the Saudis provided a lot of money to support Pakistan’s nuclear program, and you don’t spend that sort of money just for shits and giggles.
Alliance wise, it started when Pakistan was close to both the US and China, while India was more aligned with Russia.
The Russia-China alignment has come more recently, with Putin’s determination to poke the US in the eye, and China being increasingly inclined to support him in that.
The Israeli strike on Qatar are changing calculations though: the Saudis and Gulf States all assumed deference to the US bought protection.
If that avails Qatar nothing, and the US cannot or will not restrain Israel, when the US itself proposed that Qatar host the Hamas leadership, and sought Qatari role in negotiations with Hamas, what is the point of such?
Especially after Iran previously hit Qatar with missiles, and the US made no direct response.
A hegemon that will not act as protector is about as much use as a chocolate teapot.
The Youtub algorithm spat out several videos on how to deflect and/or destroy an asteroid or comet that might hit Earth*. None at all on how to get an asteroid to put us out of our misery… Biased platform.
* Find a large deep place, preferably one with an underground stream, and stuff it full of consumables. Chances of averting a hit on short notice are slim to none.
@Michael Reynolds: And don’t forget the poor wee lesbian!
@DK:
It’s been obvious for a long time that the Republican Party was fine about anti-migrant rhetoric, but always shied away from the obvious measure: fine any employer using undocumented labour until they shriek for mercy.
In other words: talk is cheap, but actions that hurt the real economy, and the business/farmer base: nope.
Then along comes Trump, who is dumb enough to believe the bullshit, and MAGA likewise.
The same applies in the UK, where the Conservatives and Reform rant about undocumented migrants in the “black economy”, but also refuse to consider the obvious remedy: a universal national insurance ID card system, and fining the f@ck out of any employer or “contract issuer” who fails to verify the national insurance status of employees or contractors.
There are arguments against doing so: but if someone claims their priority is ending “illegal workers” and “undocumented migrants” and then rejects the logical means to deal with the issue, my response is to tell them to f@ck off and stop wasting my time with their nonsense.
@becca:
There are not that many residents of Derry who speak Irish Gaelic as a “cradle tongue”.
Or Irish generally, for that matter, even in the Republic.
iirc it’s about 1.5% of the population who are classed as “routine users”
Whereas in Wales its about 15%, iirc.
Historical footnote: during the British-Irish talks in the early 1920’s, British PM David Lloyd-George, an native Welsh speaker, often amused himself by talking in Welsh to Cabinet Deputy Secretary Thomas Jones. A sly dig at the Irish delegation being English-speaking.
Regarding the overreach and the “stepping on private parts”. Trump and MAGA are following a very familiar predatory pattern. Predators will screen victims, seeking those who are most vulnerable. This happens in an often slow, escalatory pattern, which might begin with asking someone the time in the grocery store parking lot.
Which is why my sensei, who had read several books on how this worked, advised people to say, when asked for the time in a parking lot, “fuck off”. This can be taken as hyperbole, but it serves to get attention. Nobody needs to ask someone what time it is in a parking lot. But this helps them find people who have a hard time saying, “No”.
Telemarketing also works on the ‘find the people who can’t tell me no, or better, can’t hang up the phone on me’ principle. It’s a pattern of escalation. It’s why, when I get a call from a stranger that first asks, “how is your day going?” I ignore the question and ask them “what is it you want?”
It’s rude, yes. Less rude than just hanging up. I figure there’s one call in 100 that might have something I want. So they can make their pitch. Also, it might just be a job for the caller, and they might have the number of times they get to make the pitch counted as a job metric.
But I have no patience whatsoever for the pretense that they care about how my day is going. They are simply trying to frame the conversation as a polite one.
One time, the caller made the pitch, I said, “I am not interested in this opportunity.” The of course plowed ahead, ignoring my wishes. I responded with, “Why do you think I would do business with someone who ignores my stated wishes, like you just did?” This actually stopped them in their tracks and they hung up, not me.
Acheivement unlocked!!!
But the predatory strategy, which might not even be a conscious thing, is one of repeated escalations. This is how Putin works. This is how Trump works.
It is much easier to stop them at the first push, rather than well into it. But there is also the “give a man enough rope and he’ll hang himself” strategy. I have not done a lot of that, but I expect it will work. I would like someone to rope-a-dope Trump, because he would totally fall for it.
In fact, I suspect Stephen Colbert is trying to do exactly that with his last year. Last night’s show he showed the exact clip that got Kimmel suspended. There’s more. It was impressive. He didn’t quite say, “come at me bro” but it was close.
Interesting quake drill this year. I think the seismic alert went off on time, but it was drowned out by every cell phone in the office sounding its own alert, with a message saying it’s a test of the government alert system.
That thing’s gonna wake me up in the middle of the night someday.
No word yet on when the quake following the drill will take place…
@Jay L. Gischer:
99% of telemarketer calls I get begin by asking “Is this Kathy?”
I never answer yes or no, but ask “Where are you calling from?” 9 times out of ten, they reply “Thank you, Kathy, this is Demon One calling from Hell X,” and then they launch into their pitch. I wait three seconds, then whether they’re done or not I say “I’m not interested. Don’t call me again. I’m hanging up now.” I don’t wait before hanging up, either.
Is it rude? Is it more rude than an unsolicited, pushy sales pitch?
The thing is, you cannot get them to hang up other than by accepting whatever’s offered and buying it, signing up, giving them your first born in bondage, or whatever price they want to extract from you. They work off a script that has no options for hanging up or ending the call in any other way.
One time I looked up a car insurance offer from a bank. This requires all sort of info, from the car model and make to one’s phone and email. Not fifteen minutes later, I get a call from the bank trying to get me to buy their insurance (not worth the hassle if you already have insurance). this time I pretended not to know what they were talking about. That worked to end the call.
A relative likes to respond with something like “Is this bank Z, the den of thievery and fraud? That bank Z?” Unsurprisingly, the pitch just rolls on and on.
The other week in the midst of car battery trouble, I had several calls from unknown numbers. These were from the insurance roadside assistance dispatcher, and then from the mechanic. This is one reason I don’t just ignore calls from unknown numbers. Plus I’ve had customers call now and then.
@Kathy: On the rare occasions I pick up because I mistook a number for my doctors office or whatever, and get the telemarketer, I sometimes like to go with the opposite tactic — taunt them forever by never shutting up.
Just babble and lie and make shit up and fill any opportunity to speak with nonsense. “My daughter wants to get an abortion, but I think she should get a puppy instead. It’s not an abomination against the lord and it can play fetch. Have you ever seen an abortion play fetch? Of course you haven’t…”
There’s a great feeling of accomplishment in getting them to give up.
And they’re playing a numbers game. The longer you can keep them on the phone, the less opportunity they have to defraud other people.
Jake Tapper was on Colbert last night. Yeah, I know. Here’s something he said:
Bam. You’re a bit late to the party, Jake Tapper, but you are welcome.
Really, there is nothing more American than making fun of the president. Nothing.
@Jay L. Gischer: The other point Tapper raised is that ABC suspended Kimmel because Nexstar decided to stop airing him. This in turn was after FCC commisioner Brandon Carr went on a podcast and suggested that affiliates “stop carrying this garbage”. Meanwhile, Nexstar is seeking an exception to the rule that no one company can own more than 39% of the media market in America.
So having got their orders, they jumped into action.
You know, about a year ago I took some heat for referring to “trans genocide” here.
Today, Laura Loomer said that the trans community was a “national security threat” and that the movement “needs to be classified as a terrorist organization”.
And already by that point, someone I know from my youth pasted on Facebook that “all trans people should be shot”.
I have been wondering if I overdid it. This can be evaluated by multiple metrics. One is “was it accurate?” another is “was it effective?” I feel pretty confident that the answers are “Yes” and “No”.
In a way, this is their go-to distraction. For some of them. For others, it was the entire reason for supporting Trump. It is the thing that keeps them from opposing Trump, because they care so much about something that has basically zero impact on them.
Lord help us.
Mad Vlad would never have invaded NATO airspace if Biden were president.
@Jay L. Gischer: Oh, right. I forgot. Nancy Mace said “they should be in a straight jacket with a steel lock on”
Ronny Jackson said,
I can’t find a direct link to the video in which he said that. So you can see it here
Trans people in sports was always a stalking horse. Not the real goal. Not at all.
Your basic humanity is not up for vote.
@Jay L. Gischer: Don’t forget that right after Colbert got axed, Trump posted that Kimmel was next on his list. That precedes the murder.This has zip to do with Kirk and everything to with silencing dissent. They simply took advantage when the opportunity arose.
@JohnSF:
Am I tripping or did Pakistan just agree to share its nukes with Saudi Arabia? Is Israel going to accept this? Nukes for the country that birthed and financed Osama Bin Laden? I hope at least Pakistan is not thinking of siting some inside of the KSA.
@Jay L. Gischer:..Really, there is nothing more American than making fun of the president. Nothing.
Just don’t criticize the president’s daughter…
Source
https://www.historyanecdotesforteachers.com/a-president-defends-his-daughter/
@becca:
Over the years I keep being reminded of an incident in David Halberstam’s The Best and the Brightest. Early in the Vietnam War somebody threw a bomb into a cafe in Saigon and killed some U. S. servicemen and maybe civilians. A junior member of Johnson’s team said they should be using the incident to justify an escalation they were talking about. An older hand replied that they weren’t ready to go and that incidents are like busses, if we miss this one there’ll be another one along shortly.
@Jay L. Gischer:
Loomer and Trump seem to not know or understand what an organization IS. Trump said something similar about Antifa. Which is not an organization. The trans community is not an organization. These are not movements headed by individuals who direct the group in achieving a specific set of goals.
@Jen:
True, but it won’t prevent El Taco and his loons from carrying out violent repression against trans people if they so choose.
Another thing he’s been jabbering about lately is that the FCC should pull ABC’s license. Networks are not licensed by the FCC, only the local affiliates that actually broadcast the shows produced by the networks. True, some affiliates may be owned by the network, but a great many are not.
I think the old expression is “but what does this have to do with the price of beer?” Those in power will do what they want unless someone stops them. For all the support immigrants are getting from their communities, from some of their employers, etc., this hasn’t stopped masked thugs abducting people, including citizens, off the streets.
And on top of all that, the fixer court does what El Taco bids.
If eh wants to brand all trans people as part of a “major terrorist organization,2 and hunt them down and do unspeakable things to them, he will.
@Michael Reynolds:
As I’ve said: there has been an obvious private Riyadh/Islamabad deal on this for many a year.
That’s why Saudi Arabi bought and operates Chinese missiles that are of little use for conventional strikes, due to lack of percision, but just fine as nuclear delivery systems, and are pretty certainly set up to mate to Pakistani warheads.
The Pakistani Shaheen 1 missiles are very close in design to the Chinese M-11/D-15 the Saudi’s bought back in the 90’s.
Saudi Arabia paid out billions toward the Pakistan nuclear project, albeit undeclared, if you look at the history.
There are currently some 70,000 Pakistanis serving as “military contractors” in the Saudi armed forces.
It give KSA a fallback option if Iran acquires nuclear waepons, and the US does not intervene.
And Israel can do little about it: Pakistan is way beyond the reach of the IDF, and a pre-empt by Isreal vs KSA would mean hell is coming to breakfast.
Netayahu might do well to consider the implications of destroying the “Abraham Accords” project, and that Israel is not necessarily the inevitable hegemon of the Middle East, and free to act as it may please.
It’s yet another reason why the concept of US “strategic disconnection” from the Middle East is unrealistic, and why, if that did happen, it wouldn’t necessarily leave Israel in secure position of regional predominance.
If I was willing to bet on such things, I’d suspect the next shoe to drop might be a Turkey/Saudi reconciliation.
They’ve been at odds over Erdogan’s fondness for the Muslim Brotherhood, whom the Saudis like very little at all.
But such things can be patched up and painted over.
@Kathy:
We need to respond to this in the same way Turkey did in 2015: vector intercept, and if loitering, engage.
And subsequently Russia walked wide of Turkey.
There are NATO AEW, NADGE, and Typhoons in the area, fully capable of of dealing with any Russian intruders.
These “probing operations” need to be stopped, and if necessary stopped hard.
And no, it is not going to lead to “nuclear war”, any more than Russia nuked Turkey.
@Gustopher:
My periodic amusement, when getting calls about “you may have a computer security problem”, and I have nothing better to do, is to play the befuddled oldie.
“Now when you look at your computer menu …”
etc
About half an hour later:
“Oh, my computer uses someting called Linux. My nephew set it up for me. He’s so clever about that sort of thing. Hello? Are you still there?”
Evil, I haz it. 😉
My PC actually does run a Linux VM, though my nephew, clever as he is, had little to do with it.
lol
@JohnSF:
It won’t lead to nuclear war or even conventional war even if NATO forces wind up shooting down a MiG or three.
Me, I’d order a missile lock, hold the missile, just to see that the Russians do. Will they evade and get out of Dodge, or would they try to engage?
@Kathy:
If they attempt to engage a Typhoon, their subsequent experiences will be eventful, unhappy, and rather short.
The next step would be to deploy IRIS and SAMP/T systems and make it known they will shoot at any incursions whatsoever.
Also, to have NATO warships board and detain any “Russian shadow fleet” (ie non-Russian flagged) tankers in national waters, and that if any escorting Russian frigate attempts to intervene, said Russian frigate will be fired upon.
It’s time and past time to stop pissing about.
@Gregory Lawrence Brown:
I still rather like Truman, lol.
At least he inclined to punch Hume on the snoot in person, not try to get him fired or have the WaPo shut down if they didn’t sack him.
@Michael Reynolds:
Back in 2011 it was common knowledge in Afghanistan that Pakistan has been kept afloat by Saudi money for many decades. Pakistan is and has always been a hot mess. It’s not a great leap to picture that if push ever came to real shove Pakistan would find it difficult to refuse a request from the Al-Saud for nukes.
The Saudis need to consider more than nukes. Their population is quite small and hardly any of them have bothered to join the military. They would look to Pakistan to supply soldiers for their defense.
Clearly, the US is going nuts, having elected a spoiled brat game show host twice for POTUS, the Saudis need a back-up plan just in case there is another Saddam, and that one smart enough to have said nice things about King Donald, Eric, or Donald II before busting a move.
@dazedandconfused:
This is over-simplifying: Pakistan is not absolutely dependent on Saudi Arabia.
Pakistan comes in about the top third of states by GDP.
Though rather less well in GDP per capita.
It would have found it difficult to pursue its nuclear project absent Saudi funding, and Chinese assistance, it’s suspected.
But would still be a major regional player even absent that.
Saudi Arabia indeed has a small population: only about three times that of Israel.
And the el Saud offer to the people has been, generally: “we govern the country, you get to live as you have, and with more material wealth, so long as you leave us and the Wahhabi ulema to run things”
A fairly standard monarchist offer, adapted.
There is no obvious “another Saddam” in the offing, due to the absence of a viable power-base:
– Iraq is crippled by Shia particularism and Iranian influence
– Syria is still a mess,
– Egypt depends on Arabian subsidies.
The obvious alternative regional hegemon is Turkey: but the Turks generally seem to have little appetite for sticking their fingers back in the Arab fireplace, unless they have to.
Ankara may move to a regional stabilization agreement with the Saudis; it’s unlikely they want to assert control.
But it’s also unlikely that Turkey will permit Iran to attempt to renew its project of regional predominace via Shia alliance and the “alliance of resistance”.
@JohnSF:
How does Saudi support for Pakistan change or increase as India gets chummy with China and Russia?
@Kathy:
Damfino.
At a guess, KSA does not mind the China linkage, as an extra meassage to Washington: “we have options”
India might have been a bit more tetchy, but given Trump has royally pissed off India, perhaps now not so much.
How Pakistan reacts to India/China reconciliation apart from PANIC!!!, who knows.
There’s, to use the technical term, a whole shitload of strategic calculations up in the air right now.
Which is not, when you are talking about regional nuclear balancing, and periodic military confrontations, is not necessarily a “good thing”.
But if you are MAGA in DC: “Hey, who cares, dude? It’s all jus’ kayfabe! Chill and troll! lol!”
The intersting question may be:
Does China prioritize better relations with India over its prior relationship with Pakistan?
And if that equation changes, how does Pakistan respond?
Very difficult to guess at.
What’s NOT difficult to assess is the utter stupidity of Trump pissing off New Dehli because he thought they were dissing him.
@JohnSF:
I didn’t say that Pakistan is absolutely dependent in Saudi money.
@dazedandconfused:
Make your mind up.
@JohnSF:
India is capable of dominating their ocean through which Chinese oil must pass. If they can cozy up that frees Chinese ground forces on the border, and probably naval assets as well, to pursue other goals. I would not count on Pakistan winning Xi’s hand. A China-India entente would be Nixon-goes-to-China level reshuffling.
@Michael Reynolds:
That depends.
India certainly has the potential to dominate in the Indian Ocean, and far more besides.
By comparison Pakistan is a rounding error.
It’s a forgotten “alternative history” item that the British Indian Raj included the Gulf , Oman, and Aden.
If India had acquired full and undivided Dominion status in the 1920’s, it would likely have encompassed much of Arabia.
All that aside:
If Xi has to choose between Dehli and Islamabad, the choice is obvious.
The question is: how much of a free hand is either inclined to grant?
China must be wary about India predominating in south Asia; just as India must re China in SE Asia.
That was the US advantage in many regions: it did not need to calculate immediate local interest, but could balance between local actors.
Similar to the British in the period of British naval predominance.
Trump’s silly approach of “annoy everyone everywhere” is wrecking the US capacity to act as the “balancing Power”.
@Michael Reynolds:
In short: Trump is utterly f@cking up US relations with India.
Just as he is with Brazil, South Africa, Australia, ME/NA, Europe, Vietnam, etc.
He is just utterly unable to shut his silly gob, and not do a kayfabe dance.
The only recent head of state of a major Power remotely as performatively daft has to be Kaiser Wilhlem II.
Even the tsars were more sensible.
@JohnSF:
That’s not “absolutely”, John. The long financial support of Pakistan by SA is well documented.
Yesterday you tried to claim Hindu Kush mountains are between Afghanistan and Iran to contradict me and, when I corrected that, refused to admit they aren’t.
A pattern of reflexive contradiction is gesture of contempt. You got a problem with me?
@dazedandconfused:
I have no problem with you.
Why on earth should I?
But you may have a problem with geography.
The Hindu Kush ranges go from north-east to south-west in eastern Afghanistan.
And Kabul, and hence Bagram, are to the east of the range.
Just look at a map.
Or another map.
Or another.
On this, at least, I am correct, you are mistaken, and that’s all there is to it.
As to Saudi financial support for Pakistan, that is indeed long standing.
And it’s questionable if Pakistan could have sustained a nuclear program without it.
But Pakistan is not, in general terms, only “kept afloat” by KSA financial support.
Just look at the Pakistan GDP, tax revenue (c $30bn pa), and the likely percentage of that which estimated Saudi transfers equate to (less than a tenth of that, it appears.)
Saudi support has been important in supporting Pakistan’s loans financing.
But that does not amount to dependancy.
@JohnSF: Can’t you see the range tapering off drastically not far to the west of Kabul in your map 2??? A barrier to Iran that range indisputably isn’t.
As to the importance of the Saudi support to Pakistan, here’s a more detailed look. This guy called it crucial, and lays out why.
@dazedandconfused:
The range remains over 2000 m until you get a bit south-west of Kandahar.
As I said before, this is not a problem for high-altitude aircraft, but it is for lower ceiling types.
And those mountains are part of the Hindu Kush range
I agree that Saudi finacial support has been important for Pakistan: but I don’t think that equates to dependancy.
The sums specified in that article are large, and important, but still amount to only about 10% of Pakistans annual tax revenues.
@JohnSF: O Jesus effin Christ on a pogo stick, John. 200o meters is not a problem for any military helo, not many non-mil helos either. The big snow capped mountains are clearly visible from the Kabul region and they spread from the north to the east, not to the west, I promise you.
The quibble is most irritating in several ways besides that too. Not only is Bagram too far away to be considered a helo-base for a war with Iran, the notion that an airbase is useless unless it also a helo base is absurd. You know this, or certainly would’ve if you had made the least effort to think about it before yanking it out and tossing it at me.
I used the term “kept afloat”, and the article I posted used the world “crucial”. The point being lost with this pedantic quibbling is the long military financial relationship between the al-Saud and Pakistan is old as that nation’s founding, large and quite deep. The new formal agreement should arguably not be viewed as a significant change.
I grasp that is to a degree just “how you are” and mostly have no problem with it, but when it seemed to be happening on most every post I make I had to ask the question I did. I just want to forget about this though. Your posts quite informative and I like ya, this is only me pushing back out of a feeling of necessity.