Friday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Friday, November 21, 2025
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62 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on
Twitter and/or
BlueSky.
Yesterday marked the 43rd anniversary of ‘The Play‘
The headline of the day- Bear chases 11-year-old into Family Dollar store in Pennsylvania
The Florida headline of the day- Trump administration announces plan to drill oil off California and Florida
@Bill Jempty: Funny that Trump is not opening up the Atlantic Coast of Florida.
New Coast Guard policy calls swastikas ‘potentially divisive’
Ya think?
A little bit of history.
Airman behind famed ‘Burst of Joy’ photo dies at 92
Seemingly joyful, then again, as Paul Harvey used to say, there is the rest of the story.
A Vance ally rises at the Pentagon — with Trump’s blessing
Oof!
@Bill Jempty: I have certain memories of that. I was a grad student at Stanford when that happened.
@Scott: Well, that was quick.
In reversal, Coast Guard again classifies swastikas, nooses as hate symbols
@Scott: This is Whiskey Pete’s portfolio – renaming bases for assorted Confederate generals, firing minority flag rank officers, harassing minority troops with shaving bumps, and undoing “woke” regulations that prohibited good ol’ fashioned fun like hanging the Stars n Bars or a swastika on your locker, or placing a noose on the locker of one of those troublesome soldiers with shaving bumps. And then Tweeting about Dems, of course. “Only the finest.”
Just in case, has everyone seen this fresh hell?
For the non-Bluesky:
The absolute best part is, when you turn it off, it also nukes spell check, The Aristocrats!
Regarding the brouhaha over the “seditious”, video by Mark Kelly and others.
I maybe mistaken, but were the flights to the El Salvador prison piloted by military?
Those aircraft were piloted by military, presumably ordered to do so by a commanding officer.
IF the pilot knew that there was a court order to the effect that they should not take off or return to the US, would that pilot be obliged to comply with the court’s order, or would he be obliged to ignore the court’s order?
Second, is there an obligation to notify the pilot of the legal conflict before proceeding.?
Now if the military hires a private contractor to carry out some action that is in comtempt of a valid court order, does the military assume responsibility.
@Scott: You can always count on Republicans to do the right thing. Once they’ve caught enough spit for doing the wrong thing.
What I haven’t seen is any explanation of what this classification is used for. Does it actually matter?
@Beth: Turning that off dumped alllll of my promotional emails into my inbox. JFC. Ugh.
For Kathy, Elon strikes again. “Newest Starship booster is significantly damaged during testing early Friday” Do watch the video.
@Jen: Same. I really hate AI being pushed into EVERYTHING.
@Scott:
Prior offers to lease areas off the Atlantic coast have largely been ignored by the industry. No one’s ever found anything worth the huge expenses to develop. Where along Florida’s east coast would they find land where they could build an oil terminal and all the storage and processing facilities permitted?
@Jax:
Remember when antibacterial was put into everything? SNL did a spoof ad of “Hamburger Helper now with Antibacterial!”
@Beth:
The features that were rolled into ‘smart features,’ I’d mostly turned off anyway, but I can live without grammar checker, though it was convenient.
@gVOR10:
Quote attributed to Thomas Edison: “I have not failed 10,000 times. I have not failed once. I have succeeded in proving that those 10,000 ways will not work. When I have eliminated the ways that will not work, I will find the way that will work.”
This has always struck me as laying on too thick. One can learn from failure, and indeed it can be important to do so. But one need not first find all the wrong ways that will not work.
Adolf Muxk seems to think otherwise, seeing as he keeps finding ways to wreck his toys and calls it a success.
@Scott:
As the “rest of the story” unfolded, Stirm received a “Dear John” letter from his wife, just three days before as he exited his 5 year captivity that included torture. Very bad timing, but just as well, his soon-to-be-ex surely not equiped to deal with likely PTSD after that ordeal. No small irony that the captivity that separated the family for 5 years would lead to a permanent separation for the family, with 2 children remaining with dad and two leaving with wayward mom.
@gVOR10:
No, we can’t. The continued roll out of state sponsored “terrorism” here and abroad in total contradiction of US law, policy, moral standards, good sense, etc.— being case in point. Does a virus know it’s a malignancy?
@Scott:
Ain’t no “peace plan” — it’s total capitulation extracted from Ukraine, and a prelude to further expansionary violence from a rewarded Russia.
@Rob1: True, like all Trump “peace plans” there is always less there than touted. And usually quickly breaks apart once the cameras are gone.
@Bill Jempty: Here’s another headline of the day:
Elon Musk Could ‘Drink Piss Better Than Any Human in History,’ Grok Says
I’ll let you all read the rest of the article. For a good Friday laugh.
@Kathy:
We can both agree that Edison was being a bit hyperbolic, but it is unlikely that he wanted to suggest that we always seek failures to define success.
It is also likely (I surmise), that when complex systems of critical importance are being designed and manufactured (like aerospace), the process involves testing for failure in many multiples. “Moon-shot” Musk’s impatient nature aside from discussion.
That Edison quote was one of my father’s favorite, along with “There’s a better way, find it.” I’ve passed both on to my children and employees over the years. And those two quotes taken together, encapsulating the price and process of success, is after all, the story of life on this planet, and our human species very existence.
@Scott:
Worst than that:
Ukraine offered “Kremlin peace plan”: Halve armed forces, cede territories, abandon weapons, accept Russian as official language/
More
US generals will persuade Zelensky to agree with Russia, – RBC-Ukraine The peace plan for Ukraine provides for amnesty for war crimes, the return of Russia to the world economy and Ukraine’s refusal to join NATO.
_____
And on a related matter:
Hyundai is the latest company preparing to help Putin.
No longer am I considering (after much prior research), adding a Hyundai to our “fleet.”
Are we witnessing a shift in corporate sentiment towards the murderous, marauding rogue state of Russia? In the final analysis, does financial enrichment trump human moral character?
@Jen:
@Jax:
@Sleeping Dog:
It feels like a giant FU. Turn off AI? No problem, here’s an extra shitty user experience for you.
I was kinda ok with the deal where I gave them access to a bunch of data so that they could sell me some shit and in return I got a functional product that was useful. This is just Google deciding that they get to have everything and everyone else gets fucked. These companies need to be broken up. I’m also open to taxing share buybacks at 200% of the cost (company buying back pays 100% and the Seller pays 100%*)
*I understand the math doesn’t math, humor me.
@Rob1:
Adolf seems to be courting failure.
Failure is neither to be feared nor something to be ashamed of, so long as you learn from it.
I bet Edison didn’t think “Oh, let’s use cotton thread for the filament and see how it fails.” He supposedly tried (or his team did) a lot of materials for the incandescent lightbulb filament. I’m certain he expected most would work, and it was more a matter of seeing how well each worked.
@Scott:
What’s weird is that Musk is making AI the keystone to his businesses future, yet he is open that he is skewing the programming so that it will only produce results that are consistent with his worldview. Which begs the question as to why any business would buy an AI product that the developer admits is skewed? Musk and his sycophants will say that business versions will be isolated from the free versions, but will they?
@Sleeping Dog: He’s also counting on the AI to be the big winner for Tesla therefore the source of his trillion dollar payoff.
@Sleeping Dog:
You’d think it boosts Adolf’s ego to have a very expensive, resource intensive ass kissing sycophant. Therefore everyone should want one. What could possibly be better than a bot that props Adolf’s ego. don’t you feel dead inside when you realize you don’t have one yet?
Speaking of the AI bubble, Nvidia’s report that it beat expectations provoked a brief surge in the market, then it came back down. Nvidia’s stock closed lower that day.
Now, this may not be a budding bubble pop. maybe it’s just being deflated a bit so it can go on longer. The bottom line is that it’s hard or impossible to determine the intent in collective action. By definition, there is no one intent or motivation, but thousands of them.
@Kathy: Yeah. It’s the Silicon Valley “Move fast and break things.” Works better in software, where, “My code blew up.” is a metaphor.
@Rob1: Many people invented the light bulb. Edison was the first to commercialize it with a practical bulb and the infrastructure to support it. Or at least that was so after his company merged with the company of the British inventor. Probably Edison’s biggest achievement was obtaining a $300,000 loan from J. P. Morgan and others. (Something like 10 mil in current dollars. Startups were simpler and cheaper then.) The famous thousand experiments was aimed at optimization, not invention. And apparently Edison did have to invent, or at least greatly improve, methods for working tungsten.
Sorry @Bill Jempty, this tops any Florida Man story…
NTX men planned to murder men, enslave women on foreign island: Indictment
Ah Texans, everything is bigger in Texas
@Rob1:
@Scott:
@Rob1:
I was expecting that his would turn out to be “Anchorage Mk2” when Witkoff’s genuflection to Russian deamnds hit the reality, conveyed by the Europeans, that the terms demanded by Russia are absurd.
Therefore the whole thing would collapse again
However, it looks like I was mistaken.
It appears Vance, Hegseth, and Kusner have joined forces to convince Trump that his best play is to cut out Europe/UK and prsent an ultimatum to Ukraine: sign, or the US cuts off all intelligence and other support, including supplies purchased by the Europeans.
And Rubio has rolled over.
The next step will be if Ukraine refuses, UK and Europe promise ongoing support, and Trump threatens de facto to terminate NATO, and perhaps extra tariffs on top, Trump being Trump.
This could turn into an absolute disaster.
It could end up either dooming Ukraine, or the end of the Atlantic Alliance, and a very real possibility of a direct war between Europe and Russia in either case.
Inflation Alert!
First edition Superman comic book, original cover price 10¢ in 1939 sells at auction for $9+million.
Source
Bureau of Labor Statistics Inflation Calculator reports that 10¢ in 1939 equals $2.32 today.
I’ve got some old ZAP Comix in my car that I keep forgetting about. I need to take them to the local comic book store to see what they are worth.
Long before I had ever heard of Elon Musk, I spent some considerable time at our dojo learning to lose my fear of failure. Doing this is a critical component of getting into flow state, which in turn is extremely valuable in terms of high performance. For instance,
1) Babe Ruth set records for most strikeouts. Records that stood for a long time.
2) Michael Jordan often led his team in turnovers, along with leading them in points, rebounds, and assists.
3) Ta-Nehisi Coates became famous for the phrase “talk to me like I’m stupid”, which is very much in the line of getting rid of the fear of failure.
I spent many Saturday morning classes trying to do a technique and failing every single time. From which experience I learned how to do the technique better. Sometimes preconceptions die hard. Though after such a session, along about Tuesday, I would have the insight that would make the technique work. This would not have been possible without all that failure.
AND, all this took place in an environment that spent considerable energy on safety. We didn’t have zero injuries, but the injury rate was low. Losing one’s fear of failure from the perspective of “I will look stupid” (as opposed to “this will hurt people”) is extremely valuable in terms of speeding up one’s process.
@JohnSF:
So, in the end we are going to stab Ukraine in the back and kowtow to Putin?
History will see this as infamous.
@Michael Reynolds:
It gets worse.
Much worse.
Just a few choice extracts from this abomination:
– “agreed stationing of European fighters in Poland”
Sounds harmless?
But it implies: no US ones.
And an implicit deal (which you get bet your sweet behind Russia will try to make explicit) of NATO deployments in Poland, and likely elsewhere, depending on Russian approval.
– “A dialogue between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States”
The US is a mediator, rather than a member?
– “NATO agrees to include a provision in its charters that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.”
So, the entire NATO treaty must be re-written, as per the demands of Russia?
– “The United States will receive compensation for providing the guarantee.”
What? Danegeld from Ukraine, or from Europe? F@ck that.
– “US$100 billion of frozen Russian assets will be invested in U.S.-led efforts for Ukraine’s reconstruction and investment. The United States will receive 50% of the profits from this initiative.”
Remember the motto: always be grifting.
– “All Nazi ideology and activity must be rejected and prohibited.”
Which may sound reasonable BUT: presumably “to the satisfaction of Russia”.
And the Russian, rather idiosyncratic, definition of “nazism” and “fascism” tends to be interpeted as “any objection to Russian imperial domination”.
This in practice would mean a Russian veto over all aspects of Ukrainian politics and policies.
– “Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by a Peace Council chaired by President Donald J. Trump.”
Well, that’s very reassuring, to be sure.
The entire thinks stinks like a dung-heap in midsummer.
@gVOR10:
I think many people invented every invention. As technology advances and certain things become possible, more than one person will see new things that can be developed. A lot of famous patents have been contested because of this. Consider how many people were working on powered flight and on aerodynamics.
@Beth:
Was I not suffering enough with the previous hell? I didn’t really need a fresh hell.
This AI bubble cannot pop soon enough.
I could forgive it if it was sporadically suggesting replies to emails like “For fucks sake, you misbegotten monotreme, no. No. No. No. Fuck off and no.” Then at least it would be doing something useful and providing some plausible deniability for when I inevitably break, so I can later just blame the AI.
@JohnSF:
Yeah, when you present a country with terms for subjugation and set a deadline for under one week, then it’s not a peace plan. It’s an ultimatum.
@Beth:
Thanks for the tip.
While I’ve found a few, very limited, uses for LLMs, I prefer to use them only when and as I want or need to.
Which reminds me, in Edge, Copilot can watch what you do and hear what you say and read what you type, unless you disable it. I forge how, exactly. I’ll look it up when I get home and let you all know.
Of course, days, weeks, or months from now, they’ll “integrate” their “AI” into everything else and you won’t be allowed to opt out at all.
One last thing, even the DuckDuckGo browser now has its own AI agent, and so does Proton Mail. these tow claim they don’t use the chats for training, nor keep any chats in their servers. I wish that were really true.
@Kathy:
And when the ultimatum is rejected, and the entire “peace plan” is dead on arrival because it’s so bad that allies can’t even do the “there are some good elements here” face saving for you… you look weak and your are weak.
And I think that happening right on the heels of the Epstein vote, where his months of politicking failed, hurts him even more.
The US could completely step away from Ukraine. Trump has that power. But it will weaken him short, long and medium term.
It also hurts the US, NATO and Ukraine, of course.
@Kathy:
I really need to revisit every single bit of technology I use. Not just AI,b it the general enshittification and engriftication that plagues what we optimistically* call Late Stage Capitalism.
The term Late Stage Capitalism suggests that it cannot last, and that it will end, and something new will take its place. That this too will pass.
I suppose Late Stage Cancer has a similar suggestion.
@Kathy:
A different game, messing around with bits of thread on a workbench in a lab. I suspect Elon is ordering competent engineers to do things they have told him aren’t going to work, but since Elon’s imagination requires impossible things they MUST be attempted.
@JohnSF:
It’s unserious.
I suspect both Zelenskyy and Putin are putting on Kabuki theater for Trump. Both are trying to present the other guy as the one blocking a truce..ah…strike that...Nobel Prize, and are aware they are dealing with man who has the mind of a spoiled 4 year old boy -and he was glad to be rid of it.
WTF just happened in DC?
Choice quotes:
On the one hand, I’m deeply puzzled. I’m sure I’m missing something.
On the other hand, maybe, just maybe, this is how El Taco really begins to antagonize his MAGAt base. I’m not very hopeful this is the case, but there’s a tiny, submicroscopic, dim spark there.
@Gustopher:
I figure Mad Vlad would like this “deal.” It lets him cut his massive losses, safeguards his territory from attack, and rewards his naked aggression. Besides lifting of sanctions, rejoining the G7, etc.
Maybe El Taco will, in the interest of peace and fairness and international harmony, threaten to bomb the crap out of Ukraine if they refuse his latest unhinged move to impress the Nobel Committee.
@dazedandconfused:
The proposals are unserious.
What I fear is that Trump (driven by various factions of courtiers in the administration who now have his ear) is serious about these unserious terms.
And that when Ukraine, and Europe, turn them down, he will throw a tantrum and lash out at them.
That is the prize Putin has been playing for ever since his offensive bogged down
The remaining hope now is that next weeks Ukrainian/European delegation to Washington can bring Trump round to the reality that Putin is trying to game things again.
And that can override those in the admistration lobbying for coerced capitulation.
I hate to exculpate Trump to any degree, but in many ways the more culpable parties in this than Trump are Vance, Kushner, etc.
Who though nowhere near as smart as they thing they are, are still less stupid than Trump, and should be able to realise what Putin is about.
It would be intersting to know what is really motivating Vance in all this.
And why he seems to have some personal animus to Europe in general and Ukraine in particular.
I suspect it relates to his connection to the “neo-autocrat” tendency among the techbros.
But that’s just a guess.
@dazedandconfused:
I figure something along those lines.
Like the water deluge mess in the first launch attempt. Everyone knows the effects of massive jets of hot gas and flame on a launchpad, since the 1960s. Not to mention the effects of induced vibration, debris, and how they could damage the first stage engines.
Yet Adolf went and “iterated” a launch pad without a water deluge protection.
I watched the Mamdani/Trump press conference, and if you haven’t you should. Trump was gracious (gag), positive about Mamdani, and, literally defended him against the press.
MAGA heads are exploding for a few reasons:
1. Mamdani is a self-described Socialist.
2. He’s Muslim, and, like many Muslims, has a nuanced position on Hamas and Israel.
and.. three, the biggest reason…
3. The entire MAGA/GOP infrastructure’s plan for the midterms was attempting to tie all Democrats to Mandami. Trump blew up the entire messaging in one afternoon. What are they going to run on now?
@Kathy:
There are a few parts in the draft that Putin may not like.
Possibly because Witkoff is not good at taking dictation; or perhaps to leave room for Russia to press for more in further negotiations, and show its “benevolence” if it does not achieve them.
“Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact”.
And then what?
“Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian”
Not de jure.
Russia will want de jure; but may accept de facto and aim at the smuggled in political control over Kyiv (“denazification” etc) getting it a bilateral treaty on its terms in due course.
On the other hand it says elsewhere of all of Donetsk:
“internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation”
wtf? Those clauses seem to contradict each other.
Was Witkoff (or whoever) drunk when this was written up, or just plain stupid?
“If Russia invades Ukraine, then in addition to a decisive and coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked.”
Not entirely to Putin’s taste, perhaps.
But other parts indicate judgement on this will be solely the prerogative of the US. And Russia is quite adept at “implausible deniability” operations.
And if “recognition” is revoked, is the US then going to lead a military campaign to recover Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea?
Or conduct direct strikes on Russia?
And my name is Titania, Queen of All the Fairies.
“Ukraine has the right to EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is under consideration.”
Well, how nice of Mssrs Putin and Trump to kindly grant such privileges, without even f@cking asking.
That aside, the entire agreement contains various items that would make EU membership legally tricky (the US remuneration from reconstruction, for instance). And it’s a fair bet as soon as negotiations on membership began, Russia would find some way of jamming a spoke in the wheels.
Given that was the start of this whole sorry business back in 2013/14.
Basically, it will suit Putin well enough.
It gets his army out of the meatgrinder, gets him ALL of Donbas, including the 20% of it Russia does not hold, plus Crimea, plus the occupied bits of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, enough to present as sufficient a win to give him cover with siloviki nationalists.
(Who were never likely to challenge him anyway)
And gives him sufficient wriggle room and leverage (especially the “denazify” clause, which I suspect neither Witkoff nor Trump have any idea about the impliaction of) to renew “coercive diplomacy/low intensity conflict” operations at a time of his choosing, once Russian forces are fully reconstituted.
@Gregory Lawrence Brown: “I’ve got some old ZAP Comix in my car that I keep forgetting about. I need to take them to the local comic book store to see what they are worth.”
Sorry to tell you this, but they’re probably worth about the cover price of that Superman #1.
Trouble is that regular comics are published like magazines, with a new issue every month and the old ones returned and pulped. Comix like Zap are published like books, and thus are meant to stay in print forever with reprints every time supply gets low. There’s no scarcity there and thus no collector value…
@JohnSF:
People who lived through the events leading to WWII sometimes refer to the surrender at Munich, or the Munich betrayal. I understand now how they felt.
Of course! El Taco himself will lead the troops personally. Bravely braving the enemy’s bullets, bombs, and shrapnel without any body armor of the benefit of an armored carrier or tank! His mere presence in the battlefield will so frighten and impress the Russians, they will fall on their knees and fight each other to kiss his feet!
@Kathy:
At least Chamberlain had the excuse that Germany had not engaged in an open war of conquest at that point.
(Assuming the Austrian anschluss was not counted as such)
This is more like if Hitler had invaded Poland, the Poles had managed to fight Germany to standstill, and then Chamberlain had proposed the Poles surrender Danzig, the Corridor, and Upper Silesia, disband half the Polish army, subject the government in Warsaw to German approval, etc.
I doubt even Chamberlain would have done so, given, to be fair to him, he ended up declaring war on Germany.
It does recall Churchill’s comment on Munich.
iirc:“You were given the choice between risking war and choosing dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war”
@EddieInCA:
Funny, but the Trumpkins over at Lucianne.com are rationalizing this like mad. Their emotional investment in Trump-as-savior must be extreme.
Sure, that’s how it starts: denial
Then comes anger, bargaining, depression, and payback.
Marjorie Taylor Greene has announced she is resigning from Congress effective January 5, 2026.
@Mikey:
Whoever replaces her will be as bad in their politics, but hopefully a little more sane.
@wr:..Sorry to tell you this, but they’re probably worth about the cover price of that Superman #1.
You sure know how to hurt a guy!
And I had my eye on a ’64 1/2 Mustang that came out when I was in High School.
@CSK:
Yowza, the whole Mamdani thread was taken down at Lucianne.com. Guess they didn’t want to risk someone criticizing Trump.