Friday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Friday, December 19, 2025
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19 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on
Twitter and/or
BlueSky.
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Long article on the Trump/Vance/Kushner/Witkoff Ukraine treason train.
Trump has long persuaded his acolytes that chaos and incompetence is really strategy.
How a US-led peace plan in Ukraine is reshaping global alliances
Detailed article on what we might stumble into with Venezuela.
Weak in Battle, Dangerous in Resistance: Venezuela’s Military Preparedness and Possible Responses to U.S. Action
Warm and fuzzy Christmas movie recommendation.
This is Christmas. On Prime
Basic premise. People on London commuter train typically don’t interact with each other even though they see each other every day. Adam decides to change that by organizing a Christmas party for all the strangers. People learn each others stories. Romance happens.
Eyes well up. Wife and I are suckers for these movies.
@Scott:
Peter Zeihan has it right when he says that Trump isn’t even aware of the details. Witkoff – a credulous ignoramus – hands Trump something, anything, Trump accepts it and attacks anyone who criticizes it. That’s all he’s got.
Some weeks back during the MTG rebellion and the Epstein tapes heating up and the health issues in the foreground, I suggested this had broken Trump. I think it has. Everything he’s doing is either playing along with someone else’s game or obsessing over his own death, which I think he sees a comin’ round the mountain. He’s done. I suspect everyone in the White House knows it and they’re jockeying for influence. Vance may want to go 25th Amendment but I imagine Rubio will fight that tooth and nail. If Vance waits and we take back the House it may actually get harder for Vance.
I can’t even guess how this plays out. The closest parallel might be Woodrow Wilson who was evidently out of it at the end, with his wife as informal regent. But he had competent people around him, not bootlickers.
Exclusive: Top lawyer for military joint chiefs told chairman that officers should retire if faced with an unlawful order
Seems to me that this just covers up the illegality and doesn’t resolve anything.
@Michael Reynolds:
Short of a chaostrophic health event in the next year, it is difficult to see Vance pulling off a 25th amendment scheme. A stroke, a collapse on the golf course something very public would need to be a predicator. Otherwise the infighting among the MAGAts that would view invoking the 25th as a coup would be huge. But if Vance wants a chance at 2 terms, he needs to act in 2026.
Right now the Felon’s courtiers are getting what they want, they make a decision and then place an order in front of him to sign. Why would you want to mess with that?
@Sleeping Dog: I suspect Vance is very mindful of the old adage that if you strike at the king, you must kill the king. On the other hand, the odds of Trump displaying blatant incapacity seem at least fair.
@Michael Reynolds: I think this is a solid take. Trump is definitely checked out. I’m not sure about the “he knows he’s dying”.
Meanwhile, he gave a major speech on television in prime time and nobody paid any attention to it. Thing is, this could make him dangerous.
Trump says that the ballroom is being financed by private donations not tax revenues. If the donations are tax deductible, then the money is certainly coming from the public purse. Tax deductible dollars are taken out of the pool of money that would otherwise go into the general fund. Let’s make donations to the ballroom non deductible which would ensure that private moneys are used.
@Slugger:
Since when are bribes taxable?
Todd Blanche, Trump’s personal attorney at the DOJ and the person in charge of the Maxwell pardon, says the complete Epstein files won’t be released today, as required by law.
The cover-up continues.
I think any candidate should pledge to erase any Trump images or branding on Federal property.
This Mao/Stalin cult of personality needs to be thoroughly cleansed.
This artist created a work-around to Trump’s face on national parks passes
@Daryl: Exactly. People keep saying it’s private money as though that makes it somehow OK. How is it a positive that it’s being paid for by people who want favors from Trump?
@Daryl:
Since the fixer court allowed them as “tips”.
Oh, great. Now it’s “release the rest of the Epstein files”.
@Michael Reynolds:
I’ve been confidently predicting he would wear out before long. 80, doesn’t eat right, doesn’t work out, and that job wears men half his age who take care of themselves.
Yup, the ambitious little sneaks around him will be running things but they will prop the shell up to do so, “Weekend At Bernie’s” style.
Meanwhile, in Europe:
The EU agrees a €90bn loan to Ukraine.
This is being viewed as a bit of a let down by some, because they did not agee to use frozen Russian assets.
But this misses the big picture:
1) They have instead agreed to a direct “zero-interest loan” from the EU, to be repaid only if and when Ukraine receives reparations from Russia.
And Merz:
2) This will done via “Enhanced Cooperation” procedures ie a subset of co-operating EU states but outside the formal EU structure, using the EU as “enabler”. This means the “blocking states” esp Hungary are bypassed and have no veto.
3) The “loan” will be funded by issuing EU bonds. Germany and the Netherlands in particular have always been wary about EU bonds usage.
I cannot emphasise enough how significant points 2) and 3) are.
The EU Council has crossed the Rubicon.
It will be intersting to see if the next big move might be reviving, in modified form, the tabled European Defence Community from 1954 via “Enhanced Cooperation” and funding that via “EC” contributions and bonds.
Fentanyl is now a WMD.
“He who controls the language controls the world.”
Meanwhile in the Mediterranean:
Ukraine strikes a Russian “shadow fleet tanker”
Some reports (not conclusive) are GRU General Andrey Averyanov was killed.
If so: “Oh dear. What a pity. Never mind.”
Between this, and other Ukrainian strikes, and the US actions re Venezuela, it’s fair bet insurance on “shadow fleet” tankers will go through the roof.
Europeans have become increasingly annoyed and twitchy, with good reason, about “shadow ships” and Russian mechant vessels activities.
Russia seems to have some odd delusions about being able to wage “grey-zone” sub-war operations in Europe without getting push-back.
Also, if the US administration has the patience, it may just have found the means to collapse the Venezuelan govenment.
And possibly really putting Iran in a vice.
But will the Trump adminstration actually be willing to be party to shutting down the “shadow fleets”?
There’s a lot of money at play there, and a crucial Russian interest.
On the whole, Russian linked ships these days are not the safest mode of transport.