Friday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Friday, January 2, 2026
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17 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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The rioters in Iran are not just chanting about inflation or the collapsing currency. They’re chanting death to the dictator, and slogans in support of the Man Who Would Be Shah, Reza Pahlavi. Pahlavi is 65, so basically a teenager by the standards of 86 year-old Ali Khamenei. (Or Donald Trump.) Some of the rioters have guns, many have Molotov cocktails.
US and European sanctions and Israel’s dismantling of Hezbollah and the fall of the Assad regime, as well as joint US/Israeli air strikes, on top of corruption and incompetence, may have brought the country to a tipping point. The regime is discredited, revealed as militarily impotent and obsessed with a resource-wasting nuclear program and evidently pointless support for terror groups. But it still seems that James Carville also understands Iranian politics, because even there, it’s the economy, stupid.
Questions I have and hope someone has some ideas: Will foreign intelligence services start supplying weapons? Which foreign intelligence services? And where does an 86 year-old Ayatollah go if driven into exile? Are the Iraqis crazy enough to help him? If not, who’s left, Yemen and Russia? Who has the resources to help prop up a new government, should one emerge? And will it be China? Will Afghanistan and Pakistan try to carve out some chunks of eastern Iran? And won’t that be fun?
Reza Pahlavi has been quite open about reaching out to Israel. If the Iranian regime falls and Reza Shah becomes a thing leaving Israel without serious opposition in the ME, can anyone deny that Bibi Netanyahu will be seen in history as perhaps Israel’s greatest leader this side of Ben Gurion?
@Michael Reynolds:
One can ask what war crimes Ben Gurion was guilty of.
The Nakba if you take the Palestinian POV.
And there goes the first seismic alert for the year.
IMO the one big problem is human reaction time. It took like a second for the alert sirens to register, and by then the alert had also gone off on the phone. Still, I left my desk and went downstairs and out the building as prescribed.
That’s also a concern. We work in a four story building. Evacuating it is possible. What do people do on taller buildings? If you’re on the 15th floor and have a full 90 seconds lead time, the best case scenario, you’ll still be going down the stairs by the time the quake reaches you.
It’s dangerous if the building collapses while you’re in it. But most buildings are unlikely to collapse, especially after the reforms to construction codes after the 85 quake (when a lot of buildings did collapse). It’s also dangerous to go down the stairs in a shaking building. you’re far more likely to be injured falling down the stairs, maybe even fatally, than the building is to collapse.
I think the advice then is to move away from possible falling objects (book cases, file cabinets, shelfs, chandeliers, etc.) and if possible to sit under a desk or table.
People tell me ti was a strong one. I felt nothing, but I wasn’t paying attention
@Kathy:
History tends to gloss over the bad deeds of consequential individuals. See: George Washington, slave owner.
@Michael Reynolds: Rex’s Pahlavi following his father’s foot steps, backed by operatives aligned with Trump aligned with Bibi?
What could possibly go wrong?
@Michael Reynolds: For making that ridiculous comparison, George Washington would like a word in the alley behind the bar.
@Michael Reynolds: Trump is consequential.
And yet I do not expect his negatives to be glossed over by history.
I would caution against taking chanting by rioters too seriously, and would especially caution against projecting where any of this goes at the moment.
@JamesJoyner
Alabama proved yesterday they had no business being in the College Football playoffs. Even the other blowout game had a team (Texas Tech) fighting. Alabama was beat physically, mentally, and psychologically. The vaunted SEC is 4-8 in playoff games this year, which comes after 2-6 in 2025, and 8-7 in 2024 and 5-4 in 2023. It sucks that Indiana and Oregon are playing in the semifinals, because those are the two best teams in the nation right now. And neither of them is an SEC team. Both are in the Big 10.
Can we please finally stop saying it’s the best conference? Fact is, it’s not.
You know, I considered pointing out in my initial comment that prediction is neither an expression of hope nor an endorsement, but I thought that would be seen as condescending.
@Michael Reynolds:
Protests triggered by economic issues often rapidly draw in or take on political aspects.
Especially when the rulers have little affection or respect among large elements of the population.
How popular Reza Pahlavi actually is very uncertain, though.
My bet would be Russia.
But Khamenei is not the linchpin of the government any more; the Pasdaran senior officer elite are, and there are likely too many of them to flee.
They will likely fight rather than cede all power; and could well win, whether or not any weapons were supplied to any rebels.
The question will be: is there a possible deal between “opposition” and “governement moderates” and Pasdaran leadership that permits the Pasdaran to retain their ill-gotten securely?
I’d bet against it: the Taliban are unlikely to desire to grab areas populated by Shia Persa’s, and Pakistan probably thinks it has enough grumpy Balochs on its hands already.
Unless Iran totally collapses, of course, then many things could happen, likely very messily.
Except the basic antipathy of most Arabs and most Muslims to Israel, which is only likely to get worse if the Isreali settler project in the West Bank is not ended.
Even monarchies and and milatary rulers etc often incline to be swayed by public opinion.
See the Saudi refusal to normalise relations with Isreal unless it makes some concessions re Palestinians.
@Steven L. Taylor:
Of course not. The tell about the tattered legacies of unethical, amoral, consequential-but-criminal thugs like Trump, Putin, and Bibi is that so many of those who admire them rush into strange denial and disclaimers when confronted with evidence of their obvious support. “I’m not a Trump supporter” but yet you’re always circling his wagon and making excuses. Who are they kidding? Why not just admit you voted for the incompetent pedophile in the secrecy of the booth? Why lie? There’s too that’s ugly, indecent, and indefensible, that’s why.
This does not happen with truly great leaders, flaws and all. Descendants of American slaves still give the founders their due. Nobody is embarrassed to admit they admire Lincoln* or Rabin. Or Zelenskyy.
Abraham Lincoln, not Lincoln Riley — an avatar of weak leadership. Although I’d rather have him than Kalen DeBoer, speaking of embarrassing. Yikes, Alabama. It’s Roll Tide, not Rollover Tide.
@EddieInCA:
But Miami has the best QB and Ole Miss the best story; no one will suffer from a championship match up of Indiana or Oregon vs. either Carson Beck or Lane Kiffin’s jilted Ex.
This playoffs soap opera is fun: Kiffin’s’s shortsightedness; egg covering the smug face of odious wannabe-Senator Finebaum; Mendoza’s and Cignetti’s continued brilliance; Kirby Smart looking quite not smart in not promoting Beck to starter, prompting Beck to flee UGA and take his talents to South Beach, a la LeBron.
It’s very high drama. Very RuPaul’s Drag Race for str8 men and rednecks.
Given there’s now multi-year proof bye weeks are deadly for the top-ranked teams, hopefully the NCAA’s selfish greedmongers will finally give us the standard 16-team bracket that should’ve happened decades ago.
I don’t know. This may well be part of the LLMs plan to take over the world. It’s something The Brain might have come up with, if he totally lacked a conscience.
Choice quote:
@JohnSF:
I kind of assume Reza P is a placeholder. Gotta chant something.
But it’s all going to be fine. Trump is on it!
@JohnSF:
Yes, it does appear the chants for the return of a Shah are rather few and far between among the crowds. The Shah was a brutal dictator and some of the younger ones may not be aware of that…yet.
Trump thinks getting the US involved will help the situation? A typical delusion in narcissists: Unshakable belief that every situation is improved by themselves being involved in it.
‘Fireball’ at Boise New Year’s Potato Drop shatters glass, video shows
Sorry, thinking WKRP Turkey Drop.
A child went to hospital from the broken glass.