Friday’s Forum

FILED UNDER: Open Forum
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter and/or BlueSky.

Comments

  1. Scott says:

    Yesterday, Paramount + dropped the first two episodes of Star Trek: Starfleet Academy. Takes place in 32nd Century (placed after Star Trek: Discovery). Won’t go into plot but let’s just say I thoroughly enjoyed it. Poured a lot of time and effort into the first episode and did a real good job introducing all the primary and secondary characters. Paul Giamatti was a hoot.

    1
  2. Mikey says:

    @Scott: We watched the first episode as well, and also enjoyed it. Haven’t watched the second episode yet, but we’re looking forward to it and the subsequent episodes.

    1
  3. Scott says:

    Everything is propaganda to these people.

    Pentagon says it will ‘refocus’ Stars and Stripes content

    The Pentagon said on social media Thursday it would take over editorial content decision-making for Stars and Stripes in a statement from the Defense Department’s top spokesman.

    “The Department of War is returning Stars & Stripes to its original mission: reporting for our warfighters. We are bringing Stars & Stripes into the 21st century,” Sean Parnell, the Pentagon’s top public affairs official and a close adviser to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, wrote in a statement posted to X. “We will modernize its operations, refocus its content away from woke distractions that syphon morale, and adapt it to serve a new generation of service members.”

    The statement appears to challenge the editorial independence of Stars and Stripes, which while a part of the Pentagon’s Defense Media Activity has long retained independence from editorial oversight from the Pentagon under a congressional mandate that it be governed by First Amendment principles.

    Actually, I’m no longer sure the Stars and Stripes is relevant to the average sailor, soldier, airman, marine. Original intent was to get news out to those serving overseas. There is no longer a barrier to getting information from anywhere to any place. And alternative military sources are plentiful.

    It would be better to just kill it and save the money.

    6
  4. Jen says:

    @Scott:

    Original intent was to get news out to those serving overseas.

    Specifically, English-language news. I remember reading the Stars & Stripes when I lived overseas. It was primarily a good-news vehicle for local stuff. I agree that the barriers to access are just not there anymore, with internet news availability. Better to fold it than turn it into Pravda.

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  5. Scott says:

    Mockery is sometimes the best tactic.

    Trump-Administration Officials Describe an Elementary-School Drop-Off

    Based on how members of the Trump administration rushed to describe Renee Nicole Good, the Minneapolis woman who was shot and killed in her minivan while protesting ICE, as a “domestic terrorist,” a “professional agitator,” and an “anti-ICE rioter” behind the wheel of a “thousand-pound missile,” here is how they might describe her dropping off her son at school just before she was killed.

    The terrorist drove a 4,000-pound guided missile to deliver her small associate to the rendezvous point. She pulled up to where dozens of others just like her were also making their sinister deliveries at “School.” (An ominously short, unpatriotic name for any building. Where is the “Trump”?) Their tiny accomplices climbed out of the rolling weapons, carrying bags on their backs full of scribbled writings—Codes, perhaps? Or manifestos?—in crayon and pencil and Magic Marker. Some of them were armed with Uncrustables, suspicious, round, sandwich-like objects full of jelly and peanut butter. (Deadly biohazards!) Others had juice boxes.

    Despite the snow on the roads, these terrorists were out in force in their four-wheeled missiles. The missiles were garnished, in some cases, with stickers. (Stickers that have slogans on them, religious icons that almost seem to spell out COEXIST—a threat, to be certain.)

    Some of them were wearing hats but no makeup. (The mark of a mind disturbed.) Some of these women had a husband at home, and some had a wife. (Could this be part of the hostility toward “traditional American views on family” that is listed in the Justice Department’s new definition of domestic terror?) All of them were up to no good.

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  6. Scott says:

    @Jen: I remember when I was stationed in Japan in the 80s, the Stars and Stripes was sold in the base bookstore along with several US based newspapers (about a day old). Most of the news was obtained through Far East Network, a defense run satellite service that transmitted US news. Also weeklies like Time and Newsweek. I had a lot of magazine subscriptions!

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  7. Kathy says:

    @Scott:
    @Mikey:

    I’d no idea it was about to drop. And wasn’t Tilly supposed to be in it?

    It seems I’ll have to get Paramount+ again….

  8. Scott says:

    @Kathy: Tilley is in the series but did not seem to have a role in the first two episodes.

  9. Kathy says:

    The seismic alert went off around 12:40 am. Since now it also comes through the cell phone networks, and it’s really loud, it woke me up.

    At home, there’s no time to get out of the building even in he best case scenario, which means as much as 90 seconds. All one can and should do is move away from objects that might fall. I was already in bed, so that was covered. I just shut off the alarm and tried to wait a few seconds, figuring the quake would wake me up anyway. I may have lasted two seconds. Nothing else woke me up. If there was any ground movement, I didn’t notice.

    Coworkers who did get out of bed say they felt nothing, either.

    I think my very casual attitude is the result of having been out of the country when the disastrous 1985 quake took place. I didn’t get to suffer that trauma.

  10. Neil Hudelson says:

    Today’s “Exciting But Almost Certainly Flim-Flam Science Headline” is Donut Lab’s proclamation that they’ve built a 400WH/kg solid-state battery that can last 100 years, go through 100,000 cycles, charge in <5 minutes, and made out of an abundant material. Furthermore, they are claiming that not only have they invented this tech and built a working prototype, but that they have already gone into production and will be shipping their batteries to customers in <10 weeks.

    Huge, extraordinary claims, couple with an equally huge promise of testable evidence very soon.

    This article captures the right tone–incredibly skeptical, but with just a hint of optimistic curiosity. Some excerpts:

    If this is real, the internal combustion engine didn’t just die today; it was buried 100 feet deep, and every other battery is not far behind. But, and this is a massive “but”, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof, and Donut Lab has yet to release that proof.
    […]
    I’m naturally skeptical, and this screams “too good to be true”, but I can’t find anything that categorically rejects the claims.

    I get battery breakthrough announcements in my inbox every week, and most of the time they never amount to anything. If I decide to spend some time researching them and talking to experts, I generally quickly hit a problem or two that make them commercially unviable.

    This announcement is different. We can’t really investigate the actual breakthrough; we can only speculate about it, since it is guarded.

    Marko’s logic for guarding the chemistry is sound, and the incentives to lie about what they have aren’t clear if he is not currently raising money.

    Then, because they claim this is already in production and will be in a deliverable product within weeks, we will know whether the claims are true in short order, and their reputations, especially Marko’s, are on the line.
    […]
    I thought researching Donut Lab would make me more skeptical about the claims, but it’s the contrary.
    It confirms that their technology stems from years of research, backed by university and government funding for its commercialization.

    Could it be that this critical research went under the radar and a small electric motorcycle startup in need of a significant bump in energy density stumbled upon it? Then, a savvy entrepreneur quickly found a way to optimize the impact of this potentially groundbreaking tech by spinning out a startup from the motorcycle company to market the battery to a broader market. Maybe?

    This could be real, or it could be hype. Again, I’m still skeptical, but I can’t point to anything specific that would disprove any claim made about this miracle battery.

    Again, if this is true, we are talking about a complete reset of the entire energy and transportation sectors. Donut Lab would become one of the biggest companies in the world. A Nobel Prize would be coming to Dr. Bhuskute and her colleagues in the near future.
    […]
    If it’s not, Marko and Donut Lab’s reputation would be destroyed.

    There might also be a middle conclusion where the battery is nearly as good as they claim, but when you ramp up production, other problems arise, such as scrap, which has been the undoing of another company that recently tried screenprinting batteries.

    Who knows? But it sounds like we should find out soon. Within weeks, we should get independent verifications of the specs. Then the bikes get delivered within months. You can fake a presentation, but there are things you can’t fake.

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  11. Sleeping Dog says:

    @Neil Hudelson:

    An Estonian motorcycle company, Verge, has announced a model based around Donut’s tech.

    https://www.motorcycledaily.com/2026/01/electric-motorcyclings-holy-grail-arrives-production-verge-bikes-feature-solid-state-batteries/

    We’ll see soon enough in the real world as you can order one and book a test ride.

    1
  12. Neil Hudelson says:

    @Sleeping Dog:

    Verge and Donut Labs are one and the same, essentially. But yeah, their promise is extraordinary on two fronts: the tech they say they’ve invented, and that we’ll be able to test these claims by early spring.

    1
  13. Kathy says:

    @Neil Hudelson:

    Steven Novella at Neurologica has a piece on it. Notably the company showed an empty case, a dummy, of its battery at CES. You’d think they’d ave presented the actual product, no?

    I disagree with Sagan’s dictum that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. They just require sufficient evidence, same as ordinary claims. Thus far, there’s little evidence for this battery, beyond Donut Lab’s claims.

    Theranos had lots of claims, too.

    5
  14. Neil Hudelson says:

    @Kathy:

    Notably the company showed an empty case, a dummy, of its battery at CES. You’d think they’d ave presented the actual product, no?

    The piece I linked to goes quite a bit in depth into the evidence, or lack thereof.

    Theranos had lots of claims, too.

    Theranos was trying to raise money from investors. This is one of the stranger aspects of this claim–they aren’t fundraising around it. In case the ample quotes I provided don’t relay my (and everyone’s) skepticism strongly enough, I am quite skeptic of these claims. What I can’t figure out is, if this is all just a bunch of hokum (likely)…why put out the statements at all? Its a privately held company; no stock is getting boosted. They aren’t raising funds from investors around this. Most scams have at least some sort of profit motive, right?

    I just asked myself “What is a scam without a money angle” and the answer is “a prank.”

    So is this just a prank–a bizarre attempt to get attention for a few weeks before guaranteed ignominy and mockery?

    Actually that would fit the zeitgeist quite well, now that I think about it.

    2
  15. Scott says:

    @Neil Hudelson: For comparison, energy density for lithium-ion is 180-260 WH/kg while sodium-ion is 100-160WH/kg. So 400WH/kg is a giant leap as is the number of cycles being 100K.

    Two items not provided is producibility and cost. Even if all other claims are true that may limit the market. The Chinese are already gearing up to produce sodium-ion batteries which will be targeted to the large scale power storage industry.

    It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

    1
  16. Jay L. Gischer says:

    @Neil Hudelson: Ahem.

    This is one of the stranger aspects of this claim–they aren’t fundraising around it.

    Let me adjust that. We can’t see them fundraising about it. That doesn’t mean it isn’t happening.

    Another possibility: They think they have what they claim, but there’s some issue that means that they don’t.

    I would be delighted if they have in fact cracked this wall. Let’s see if they do. They have my attention. But not my money.

    Like you, I want this to be true, which is exactly why I need to be skeptical.

    4
  17. MarkedMan says:

    @Scott: As someone very interested in the transition to EV’s I’ve been following this pretty closely. My best guess is that it will be a let down, if not a total flop, but it’s not clear yet. Some of the considerations:
    – The lack of third party testing on the battery is very concerning. If motorcycles are to ship in 10 weeks, the batteries that go in those should already be sitting on the shelves in the factory. A third party could have measured total capacity, time to charge, and time to discharge in a couple of days, all without having to know anything about what’s inside the shell. It just seems strange not to have provided that
    – Perhaps mitigating the above, I did see one report that the battery is in the hands of multiple potential customers who are doing testing right now. If that’s true, and their claims are true, they are going to have all the demand they can handle for the foreseeable future
    – I wouldn’t be surprised if the motorcycles are delayed because even non-battery things happen all the time when you are trying to get product out the door and imported into another country, but if so, third party testing on the battery is essential. If we don’t get that, or everyone, including me, is going to write this off as Cold Fusion
    – The fact that they are not publicly fundraising and therefore have no motivation to BS doesn’t seem conclusive to me. They could be doing so in private with one or two key investors

    2
  18. MarkedMan says:

    One more thing about solid state batteries in general and Donut’s in particular: It’s not the specs of the battery that are so amazing, but rather that they are claiming they have production up and running in a factory, at a cost comparable to Lithium Ion. After all, a few months ago Chevy demonstrated a SSB with an energy density much higher than Donut’s (600 vs 400 watt-hours/Kg). But Chevy is just now building a pilot plant, with real production not starting until 2027. And those dates are assume nothing goes wrong along the way.

    2
  19. Robert in SF says:

    The Donut Lab battery topic prompted me to search for information, and this reddit post and linked video were interesting in the background for the company, potential technology, and company staff….it’s obviously over my head, but maybe some here will find it interesting as well.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/1qddsn8/another_donut_lab_video_uncovering_the_details_on/

  20. Scott says:

    One trick pony.

    Trump tariffs live updates: Trump floats tariff on countries that ‘don’t go along with’ US acquisition of Greenland

    President Trump said on Friday that he may put a tariff on countries that “don’t go along” with the US’s interest in purchasing Greenland. The president did not reveal any specific policy details about the proposal.

    1
  21. Kathy says:

    @Neil Hudelson:

    I don’t think we disagree. We’re both skeptical and awaiting proof.

    As to why, if it’s not real, who knows. Beyond scams and hoaxes there may be other motives, including that they think they have something they don’t. Linus Pauling wasn’t lying, pulling a prank, or engaging in a scam when he claimed mega doses of vitamin C were a acure for cancer. He was dead wrong, though.

    2
  22. Sleeping Dog says:

    @Neil Hudelson:

    As a motorcyclist, frankly part of the pleasure is the sound and vibration, I’ve ridden a couple of e-MC and yes, they’re quick, but soulless. One thing that concerns me about this design from a bike perspective, having the motor as part of the rear wheel. Oh the unsprung weight. It could ride and handle like a pig.

    2
  23. becca says:

    We are in the process of switching phone service from AT&T to T-Mobile after fifty years of service with every iteration that Ma Bell provided.
    When AT&T decided we had to have new fiber optic cables, they came and damaged landscaping, dug ruts, cut our line, turned off our gas and didn’t turn it back on, and make it nigh impossible to talk to anyone who knows anything about anything. This headache has been going on for months. I have a bright orange cable that encircles my house, laying on the grass (making mowing impossible) and crossing pathways and woven through brick and iron fencing.
    They cut through french drains and broke tiles before we could stop them. Just a general disregard for private property.
    It appears to be AT&T’s way or the highway, so we are choosing the latter. This shareholder economy can bite me.

    5
  24. Jay L. Gischer says:

    I just want to note that there’s a pattern. Greenland seems to come up in the news cycle when there is something else that could be in the news cycle that Trump doesn’t want to get traction. This time its Epstein and all those files.

    Last time it was Jack Smith’s final report.

    Not that I think we shouldn’t take this seriously, but that is a noteworthy pattern.

    4
  25. Kathy says:

    @Scott:

    I’d call tariffs as blandished by El Taco economic snake oil, but they really don’t rise to that level of sophistication.

    Not to mention the sheer idiocy of threatening other countries for exercising their sovereign rights in international relations.

  26. becca says:

    Well, nations are looking for new trade partners because the US is deemed unreliable and volatile. Ya’ll already knew that, but it bears repeating.

    The dollar is weakening. No longer the favorite reserve currency. The euro has gained in favor.

    The Financial Times says the US is driving the boons in China. The world turns its eyes East to look for stability.

    The US now advocates for more environmental degradation and financial corruption.

    I doubt we survive the next three years.

    3
  27. Kathy says:

    There are books I’ve loved and ones I’ve hated. I’ve never before felt sorry for a book, until now.

    TL;DR, Bolsonaro can get 4 days taken off his sentence for every book he reads.

    There’s an approved reading list, though. so he can’t get away with ordering a few thousand CliffsNotes titles from Amazon and waltz out of prison after three months.

    He also has to submit a written report for each book. So, now the prison authorities must check his correspondence for contraband book reports.

    1
  28. Michael Cain says:

    @Kathy:

    Well, nations are looking for new trade partners because the US is deemed unreliable and volatile.

    The deep-water port China built at Chancay, Peru has been open for about a year now. The port’s availability has taken 10 days off the shipping time, from 33 days to 23, by avoiding the need to transfer cargo between large ships and smaller ones at either Mexican or US ports. Shipping costs have been reduced by about 20%. China is making deals with countries neighboring Peru to increase metals production (lithium and copper so far) and ship to China. At least three Chinese companies have started selling EVs in Peru.

    1
  29. Michael Cain says:

    Output from the local power authority’s wind farm has dropped to zero this afternoon. Not because the wind isn’t blowing, but because it’s blowing so hard it’s not safe to operate the turbines. The for-profit power company in the area has shut off power to thousands of customers because of the fire danger. My municipal utility and their non-profit power authority haven’t shut down, because they do more and better maintenance than the for-profit company.

    2
  30. Kathy says:

    @Michael Cain:

    You replied to me, but quoted @becca.

    I recall hearing a lot of negative coverage about China’s Belt and Road program. Mostly about pointless investments in low income countries, like unneeded airports and highways. Apparently they’ve improved on that account.

  31. Kathy says:

    So, this is how the insurrection act will get a microscopic fig leaf: the now misnamed DOJ has launched criminal investigations on Walz and Frey, allegedly because their condemnations and criticisms of what ICE thugs are doing ni Minnesota constitutes criminal interference.

    In a pig’s eye.

    2
  32. Kathy says:

    Dec. 11

    Me: Gather whatever unpaid dinner invoices you’ve pending and I’ll see how much I can reimburse you.

    Dec 11 through 20

    Coworkers: (silence)

    Dec. 21

    Me: Again, please gather whatever unpaid dinner invoices you’ve pending and I’ll see how much I can reimburse you.

    Dec. 21 to Jan 13

    Coworkers: (silence)

    Jan 14

    Me: I’m all out of petty cash funds. If you ever find the unpaid invoices from last year, I’m sorry to tell you they’ll have to wait til next week.

    Jan 16

    Coworkers (carrying a sheaf of unpaid dinner invoices): Can we get reimbursed for these?

    4
  33. JohnSF says:

    Meanwhile in Greenland:
    Multiple European countries send forces.
    Albeit rather small ones.
    But deploying large detatchments in the Arctic midwinter = silly.
    They are primarily symbolic/tripwire.

    But what Trump and Hegseth etc have to worry about is:
    – how closely are Danish special forces now watching Pittufik?
    – what are the odds of combat units with MANPADS now on watch at possible air landing sites?
    – how likely is it a European submarine is now lurking if things get hot?

    The Danish government has confirmed standing orders are for forces to engage any invader.

    Trump meanwhile is now going to “the US will impose tariffs on any country that opposes us over Greenland”

    Trump is getting very close to provoking the “Love Actually” response.
    Or in, more or less, in short: “F@ck off.”

    5
  34. Kathy says:

    @JohnSF:

    But deploying large detatchments in the Arctic midwinter = silly.
    They are primarily symbolic/tripwire.

    If El Taco is too thick to understand any attempt to seize Greenland by force won’t take five minutes nor be bloodless, hopefully the more lucid of his advisers, if any, will try to disabuse him of that notion.

    He also seems to think NATO will help him get Greenland.

    There are no words.

    About the only idiocy not yet uttered in this sorry spectacle is “We’ll be welcomed as liberators!!”

    2
  35. JohnSF says:

    @Kathy:
    A short message to Trump might be along the lines of:
    “It’s all just fun and games. Until the snow speaks Danish”

    The problem is, unlike Trump 1, the more relatively realistic advisors (Mattis, Kelly, Tillerson, Pompeo, etc) are absent.
    Rubio is not an idiot, but also not a military type, and seems inclined to bow to the Orange Overlord so long as necessary to sustain his hopes of a presidential run.

    Chances of Rubio having the balls to confront Trump vs Vance/Bannon/Miller et al?
    My hopes are not high.

    3