Generational Turnover Coming for Democrats?
Over-reading the NYC mayoral primary.

Nate Silver (“Zohran delivered the Democratic establishment the thrashing it deserved“):
Zohran Mamdani, a previously obscure state assemblyman who polled at as little as 1 percent in early surveys of the race, became the Democratic nominee for mayor of New York City on Tuesday.
Technically speaking, the contest isn’t over yet because votes have not yet been reallocated as per New York’s ranked choice voting (RCV) system. As of just after midnight New York time, Mamdani has 43.5 percent of the first-preference vote: the lack of an outright majority means that second-choice preferences1 will come into play.
[…]
Cuomo’s campaign produced a laundry list of endorsements, such as Bloomberg, former president Clinton, former majority whip Jim Clyburn, plus lots and lots of unions. Meanwhile, the New York Times, which can be incredibly influential in the city, issued a half-hearted anti-Zohran endorsement after initially swearing off involvement in local races, encouraging voters to rank Cuomo toward the lower end of their ballot but Mamdani not at all.
The Clintons, Clyburn, the New York Times and the unions, plus Black groups, Jewish groups, Italian groups and every other stripe of the rainbow: that was supposed to be a winning formula in New York. But the old formula doesn’t compute anymore.
It’s hard not to be reminded of the past three presidential races, and particularly the Democratic establishment forcing an eat-your-spinach choice down the throats of the primary electorate. It was Hillary Clinton’s turn to win the nomination in 2016 after she lost to Obama in 2008 and she heavily emphasized this in her campaign — although to be fair, she performed much better in New York City against Bernie Sanders than Cuomo did against Zohran.3
Democratic Party leaders including Clyburn, panicking about a potential Sanders nomination as the COVID pandemic hit American shores, then successfully intervened to boost Joe Biden in 2020. That was forgivable — maybe even quite smart — given that Biden won. But then Democrats made a catastrophic error by failing to seriously challenge Biden in 2024 until it was too late, pretending that a primary against the likes of Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips constituted a real choice for voters — and then nominating Kamala Harris in lieu of the sort of “mini-primary” that some observers4 had called for.
Cuomo, like Clinton, was from a political dynasty that most people under the age of 40 have little or no affection for. And although Bernie is an exception, maybe it isn’t that complicated. If you want to inspire younger voters, nominate younger candidates. Mamdani, at age 33, is literally half Cuomo’s age: the former governor is 67.
Meanwhile, Clinton, Biden and Harris were all nominated despite all being previous primary losers. (Clinton in 2008 to Obama; Biden in both 1988 and 2008; Harris in 2020.) You can’t say the same about Cuomo, at least, who thrashed former Sex and the City actress Cynthia Nixon in the 2018 gubernatorial primary. But in the mayor’s race, Cuomo trotted out the same boilerplate, tired themes, including a heavy emphasis on Trump, that had also failed Clinton, Biden (in 2024) and Harris rather than the local issues that mayoral races often turn upon.
The extent to which this might be a leading indicator for national politics, and particularly the 2028 presidential nomination race, is an open question. But I think you could go too far in dismissing it, and some fellow center-left types probably will. New York City is a weird place, but it’s also an exceptionally diverse place, home to every imaginable ethnic group, more conservatives in the Democratic primary electorate than you might think, and plenty of voters who were probably closer to Cuomo on the issues but who just didn’t like his vibe, or who liked Mamdani’s.
So Zohran thoroughly earned the win, and Cuomo and the Democratic establishment thoroughly earned the loss. And even if they finally take the hint, generational turnover in the Democratic Party is coming whether they like it or not.
By definition, generational change always comes. But there are signs that the octogenarian and septuagenarian hold on the leadership is finally crumbling.
Otherwise, I’m not particularly prone to reading much national import into local primary elections, even for such a significant polity as New York City. (If it were a state, it would rank 12th.) While Tip O’Neill’s maxim “all politics are local” is considerably less true now than it was when he said it, NYC is not representative of the nation as a whole or even the national democratic primary electorate.
Hat tip: Taegan Goddard
I think that most Democrats under 45/50 probably don’t have a perspective where NYC should be treated as somehow meaningful distinct from the rest of the electorate when it comes to normal life. Three months ago, Mamdani went after ICE after they kidnapped Mahmoud Khalil (who is now free). Does that play only in NYC? Or does it play in Topeka, Mobile, and Tempe?
Mainstream Democrats have spent the last eight years complaining about identity politics and young people. But the biggest identity political identity is that of a person who can’t relate when it comes to standing up for what’s right. Nobody will be running on taking the fixations of the downtown NYC art world and making them a national issue. They’re talking about affordability, the power of billionaires, and standing up to fascism.
Over-reading is a real danger here. I think Cuomo is just way past his “best used by” date. A seriously flawed candidate. And Silver is a seriously flawed pundit.
@Daryl:
Even before he was caught (figuratively) with his hand in his aides panties, Cuomo was an odious politician. It is easy to see voters fleeing Cuomo, consolidating around an attractive candidate that is speaking to kitchen table issues, even if his solutions have no chance of being implemented.
In another sign of change, a 47 YO D congress critter beat a 70 yo for a committee, minority chair vacated by a dead CC.
An aside; yesterday I saw a meme asking the question that as a 73 yo, am I too young to run for a Dem congressional seat.
My understanding from reading is that Cuomo didn’t dare bring up local issues, because during his time as governor his position could be summed up as, “I hate NYC and will do everything in my power to cripple its infrastructure and otherwise see it fail.”
It just struck me how funny the mainstream Democrat response is going to be. “Sure, be excited, but the important thing to remember is that the future is Ozempic-faced ghouls supporting genocide, the word ‘oligarch’ was invented by postmodern Marxists, and there’s a lot to learn from paranoid schizophrenics who are terrified of keffiyehs and trans people.”
There’s a pretty sad contrast between the establishment Dem response to Mamdani winning and their “ideas” for how to attract voters in the wake of losing to Trump.
Mamdani ran a targeted campaign on issues that were really dogging NYC. He didn’t entertain diversions to coddle the NYTimes trying to drag him into stupid sidebars (c.f. trans rights!). He met and talked with voters all over the city in person. He showed he understood the city, and he was direct about what he thought were the solutions to its big problems. And he formed a coalition with several of his “competitors” who were also pushing issues he thought were important.
That last one showed he understood RCV, which apparently the Cuomo contingent simply did not. And that says a lot to me about how much the establishment Dems pushing a sex pest should be trusted for their “deep political understanding” or whatever.
I don’t think the left needs its own Joe Rogan, it needs to remember that there’s very strong support for a vast array of leftist policies, and Republicans have been using distraction politics for decades to win elections and dump their unpopular policies on all of us.
The current Democratic Party is pretty much dead. MAGA is the biggest threat to the Republic since the Civil War and the Democratic leadership is basically doing nothing.
Assuming voters see this, maybe this is what comes after.
Good. This sexagenarian would be very happy to see more quadragenarians and tricenarians taking over US governance.
Over the past couple of weeks I got a ton of ads on YouTube either praising Cuomo’s record as governor or blasting Mamdani as a guy who would defund the cops causing crime to skyrocket. I was struck by how bad the ads were, attempting to prop up a deeply unpopular ex-governor who resigned in disgrace while spreading dishonest Republican talking points about Dems in general. I believe these types of ads backfired big time on them, having the opposite effect of how they were intended.
I also had a sick feeling that part of the reason Michael Bloomberg and Bill Clinton were so desperate to prop up Cuomo is that (in light of their own history) they don’t believe he did anything wrong.
The biggest mistake of all for those who didn’t want Mamdani was rallying around a figure like Cuomo in the first place.
@Sleeping Dog: It’s kind of amazing that Democratic establishment types were unable to find someone with less baggage than Cuomo who was willing to run. Maybe someone who hadn’t resigned from the governorship in disgrace.
Relatedly, Anthony Weiner lost his bid in the City Council primary.
It appears to have been a bad night for sex pests who resigned in disgrace.
@Gustopher:
There were a couple of normy Dems on the primary ballot, generally center leftists that had/were serving in city government that were far better choices than Cuomo. But I guess he had the name recognition and the money, so the establishment went with him. We shouldn’t ignore the reality that most professional pols and donors, really don’t give a hoot about sexual harassment. They often secretly admire the harasser.
The funny thing is, this is a missed opportunity for R’s to retake the mayor’s office, Sliwa is a joke candidate.
This is from yesterday, but it’s an Emerson Poll. It reinforces the Democrat constituency being the gullible “edu-medicated” class.
voters, 62% to 38%.
@Gustopher: “It’s kind of amazing that Democratic establishment types were unable to find someone with less baggage than Cuomo who was willing to run. Maybe someone who hadn’t resigned from the governorship in disgrace”
The whole point of the Good Old Boys network is to cover for these things. They strongly did not want to find a clean person, because they’d be a threat.
@JKB: ““edu-medicated””
The Lysenkoism, it burns!
The Democratic Party has never owned its trademarks. Never. It once had a process that went a good ways to ensure a fairly consistent platform, but it doesn’t really have that now. (Neither do the Republicans.) So pronouncing them dead is kind of like pointing at a rock and saying, “It’s dead!”.
You’re not wrong…
My question is how the Jewish voters of NYC, and there are quite a few of them, are going to respond to Mamdami, given that he’s Muslim. I mean, it could be ok. Or it might not. He has a job to do, I think, in reassuring them that he’s ok.
There’s another question about how able national Republicans will be to paint Mamdami as “anti-American” and tar national Democrats with him. Kind of like “San Francisco politics”.
They will try, of course. So we need Mamdami to be able to punch his own story into the media, and that’s what campaigns typically give us a read on.
@JKB: Your thesis appears to be, “going to college makes you stupid”. Is that a fair characterization?
@JKB: It would seem that, given Mamdami’s big margin over Cuomo, that there are a lot more of the college-educated voters in NYC than non-college educated. Either that, or the splits you cited ended up being wrong.
Don’t get me wrong. I am all for reaching out to non-college educated voters.
@ptfe: I think, in much the same way that I do about evangelical concern for some social issues in fact, that there is voter support for a variety of leftist issues, but that support is largely aspirational. Among evangelicals, the aspirations are blunted by the perceived need to be “salt and light” to an evil and blind world. Among Democrats, the aspirations are blunted by the perceived reality of leftist solutions costing too damn much money and creating a perceived danger diminishing personal prosperity. I don’t know how to address either issue except as a looooooong term project.
Christianity has been working fitfully on the disconnect evangelicals experience for roughly 2000 years. I’m not optimistic.
@Sleeping Dog: Eric Adams, former Republican turned Democrat turned Trump buddy, will be the de facto Republican candidate. He’s still the incumbent and still running as an independent.
I normally wouldn’t care about the New York mayor. But this is the kind of horserace infotainment that’s actually delicious.
The fearmongering about Mandami and his past tweets about 9/11 and defunding the police are about to be turned up to eleven. I’m interested to see how New Yorkers beyond Democratic primary voters respond.
Much has been made of Clyburn and Slick Willy endorsing Cuomo, but Clyburn has no cachet in New York and Clinton seemed to be doing a last minute favor to a onetime staffer. It all wreaked of desperation.
What’s telling is how many major players in current New York politics — Gov. Hochul et al — stayed neutral. Popcorn popping.
@Kylopod:
Ding, ding, ding… We have winner. Please clear your Bingo cards for the next game.
@JKB:
Medicated? Trump lives on Adderall and Diet Coke.
@Jay L Gischer: The real irony would be in discovering that he’s in senior management in an international corporation or a managing partner of a national-level law corporation–where his career has been all but entirely dependent on credentials and networking provided by having gone to an “elite” school.
Not a New Yorker. I have no horse in this race. But then again, it’s sorta runs the economy of the US, to some degree.
Grand total maybe a month and two weeks there midtown over decades due to job considerations. I’ve spent way more time in Edison, NJ due to more pressing considerations. Like 10x more.
I have no opinion on Mamdani. Other than he’s not Cuomo.
I want Cuomo to lose because he is an asshole.
@al Ameda: Well, you can’t leave out the hamburders. They’re a big part, too.
On a smaller note, yesterday I voted to renominate Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg, a race I ignored last time.
@DK:
It’s still a missed opportunity for the R’s. Adams is damaged goods, only different than Cuomo in kind, the R’s don’t want to vote for him.
Interestingly, Cuomo may still be on the Nov. ballot as he’s been endorsed by a couple of minor parties that qualify for the ballot.
Yes, stock up on the popcorn and beer, it will be entertaining.
I love NYC but have never lived there, so don’t have a dog in this fight.
My main thought is that the two leading primary candidates are bad, and New Yorkers deserve better choices.
Here is my theory: pendulum
We elect folks on the margin, by the middle. Folks are party A, party B, or some variety of C. A and B cancel each other out (nationally). We are dependent on C. C calls the shots. Uneducated, quasi-stupid, vibing on the zeitgeist C.
They did not get their promised pony, get disenchanted, so they vote for the other party next time.
Meanwhile –
Apparently the Right can keep zapping those same electrodes, over and over
Cuomo was a spectacularly flawed candidate. The only reason he was even in the running was that people remembered he was very visible during COVID, and that blocked out the memories of how horrible a governor he was. And that’s not even getting into his personal flaws. He sabotaged the state Democratic Party to prevent a Democratic majority senate. He tried to destroy the Working Families party because they didn’t endorse him. He renamed a bridge after his father, over the objections of the people who actually used it. And on and on. He is not dissimilar to Trump in a lot of ways; he just wasn’t born as rich.
@de stijl: The New York City electorate is vastly different from the US electorate. If Mamdani is a reaction to anything, it’s to the current mayor, Eric Adams (Onion headline: Well, Well, Well, Not So Easy To Find A Mayor That Doesn’t Suck Shit, Huh?).
@Kevin:
Yeah, good point. You are correct. NYC elections are very local.
The pendulum works for national politics, not local. It was a dumb time to float that theory on this topic. I was dumb.
But Cuomo is a asshole, fuck him.
@Modulo Myself:
For a lot of them, I think it’s rather the opposite. NYC is something that should be emulated in the rest of America.
Not the rents, the subways that smell of urine, and the rats the size of small dogs, but an idealized NYC with all the diversity and the freedom that represents. Whether you’re an Orthodox Jew, a Drag Queen, a Black woman, a leftist kid with pink hair and piercings, a social worker or a stock broker — there’s a spot in NYC where you fit in, and where you’re rubbing elbows with lots of other communities and there’s almost never a race riot. There’s even a spot for mediocre conservative white men (Staten Island). You can be you, whoever you are.
San Francisco has a similar vision, but with more shit on the streets. And the rest of the big cities have something similar to one degree or another.
And most of the problems of these cities comes from all the people flocking to them, because a lot of people want that. They would generally like less human feces in the streets, and fewer homeless encampments, but even faced with that, the cities are the driving force of the American culture.
It’s a start contrast to Sarah Palin’s Real America.
If SPRA had a bit more of that culture, and if there were any jobs there, I think they wouldn’t be failing as badly as they are.
Half as vibrant as Seattle (one of the less vibrant of the big cities), with 80% less feces in the streets and a bit of space around your home has a lot of appeal to a lot of people.
@Kevin: Even on Covid, did they not remember the nursing home scandal? He isn’t just a creep, he has blood on his hands.
@Gustopher:
It’s my city where I was born, and for much of my employment.
San Francisco recently changed mayors, and the new one, Dan Lurie, seems to understand that you’ve got to take care of the basics – public safety and public health, in order to enable a recovery from the post-covid doldrums that eviscerated San Francisco. It’s coming back now, albeit slowly, but there is a feeling that Lurie in on the right track, that he can do it.
One thing I know, San Francisco has things going for it – beautiful geography and climate – that will always attract people despite the flaws and high cost of housing. The city will steadily emerge from this tough time and …. be as hated as ever.
@Gustopher:
There’s a huge universal component to his politics which has nothing to do with NYC. It’s about class solidarity and normal people versus the scam artists and frauds. Do you know how many people are on social media making fun of socialism and then their bio has something to do with crypto/being a founder? You have guys who fall for shitcoin pump and dumps trying to feel superior because someone is a socialist.
America has become a joke and it’s not only Trump. You can go anywhere and find the joke at work.
@Kylopod: Somehow, no. I don’t understand how they didn’t, but then again, a majority of people didn’t remember Trump’s first term.
@Gustopher: “It’s kind of amazing that Democratic establishment types were unable to find someone with less baggage than Cuomo who was willing to run. Maybe someone who hadn’t resigned from the governorship in disgrace.”
IMHO they could, but only if they were willing to aid somebody not in the good old boys club.