Hey Look! It’s December! Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Monday, December 1, 2025
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38 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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December 1, 1955
It seems extraordinary to me that Ukraine is negotiating with the US on its war with Russia. It is as if we are Russia’s representative in these negotiations.
In the meantime, here is one independent review of where the war stands.
Latest on Ukraine from ISW:
On a lighter note:
You can thank this Marine for Taco Bell — and GI distress
On an even lighter note:
The Army Had a Crazy Thanksgiving Plan. I Had a Chainsaw
And this made me laugh out loud.
Trump Claims MRI on His Brain Found Nothing
@Scott:
Sometimes tests are needed to confirm an unusual yet glaringly obvious diagnosis 😀
Visual Capitalist – Ranked: AI Hallucination Rates by Model
Not looking good
@Scott: Well, that joke was cuter when Dizzy Dean said it.
The grand girls left yesterday, taking their cousins with them. I feel pleasantly exhausted. Sadie and Q are happy to have our full attention again.
I keep having this thought. We, as Americans, have no history of being ruled. We were founded on free thought and disruption. We are the you-are-not-the-boss-of-me! people , for better or for worse. I don’t know how all this plays out, but I embrace my real American spirit more now than ever.
@Jay L. Gischer:
Because either it was intended as a joke to begin with, or it was a malapropism I’m sure he was able to laugh at once it was pointed out to him. (I’m not sure which, but it was one of those.) Trump doesn’t do self-deprecatory humor—his ego is literally incapable of it. And he never admits to having committed a gaffe, no matter how trivial. Whenever he says anything idiotic, it is done without the slightest trace of self-awareness. Whenever it is pointed out to him that what he said is laughably ignorant—say, that a cognitive exam isn’t an IQ test and that the best you can do on one is merely okay—he just doubles and triples and quadruples down, insisting years later that his result was exceptional. It’s why he always talks about the 1917 flu; I’m sure he’s heard people point out that he’s off by a year. But since he’s incapable of admitting to even the smallest error, he literally can’t let it go. He thinks he can browbeat everyone into accepting his cartoonish image of himself as an infallible god-king. It’s like O’Brien and the four fingers, only way dumber.
Borowitz is satire, isn’t he? Meaning, Trump didn’t actually say that (yet).
@Kylopod:
Remember the Black Sharpie Hurricane?
@Jen: Should have clicked the link.
@Richard Gardner:
I guess it’s part of the business model. After all, a cheap search that uses existing infrastructure will return the links to the right answer most times, leaving the user with choices of sources they may or may not trust or rank high.
If an expensive search using AI, which has taken trillions in capital investment, were to return the same links and maybe a summary, what’s to convince the users to make use of it? They pay the same, nothing, and the latter takes a few seconds. You have to add some value.
Ergo, add certainty through wrong information and give it a cutesy name like hallucinations.
It’s a multi-trillion dollar idea!
Not that it will produce trillions of dollars, but rather it has taken trillions of dollars to get to this point.
@Scott:
Russian/tankie/ultra-MAGA propganda has had “Pokrovsk about to fall!” almost on the daily since mid-2024.
It may, eventually.
But after bleeding the Russian army white in infantry-heavy assualts on dug in defences, which seem on a par to some the most distrous offensives of WW1 in adverse attrition.
It’s capture would no more doom Ukraine that did the Russian taking of Bakhmut, which broke the back of “Wagner”.
Meanwhile, the information coming out about the dealings of Witkoff, Kushner, Vance etc with the Russians are quite jaw-dropping.
Had the US dealt with the Allies in this way in WW1 or WW2, the response from London would have been unprintable.
@Jen:
You don’t need Borowitz’s satire.
What kind of moron has an MRI and doesn’t know what it’s for? They don’t do MRI’s for fun. There’s always a reason. SO WHAT IS IT?!?
@JohnSF:
I mean, quite seriously, I CANNOT think of a comparable example in all of the history of alliances, and intenational relations in general, to the Witkoff/Kushner/Vance dealings with Russia.
It’s just off the scale.
The closest I can think of is the Spartan “anti-democratic” oligarchy selling out the Greeks to Persia in the Peloponessian War.
If anyone else can think of something similar, plese chip in
@JohnSF:
The main difference is that in WWII, the Allies got together to fight the fascists. In 2025, the fascists are getting together to devour Ukraine, possibly followed by Moldova.
Hell, at this point I’d advise the Baltic republics to enter in a side alliance with Poland, requiring all four countries to develop and deploy strategic nukes (maybe Finland as well). The way things are going, it’s highly uncertain whether the Taco regime would support the Baltics if they were invaded by Mad Vlad.
@Scott:
About the Thanksgiving dinners with ice sculptures… There’s a recent Bulwark Takes podcast with retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, in which he said the Army Chef School at Fort Lee has a course on ice carving, a skill that’s generally used at Thanksgiving or Christmas.
@JohnSF:
Yes, but this war is nothing like WW1 or 2. If the Euros, speaking about the ones actually calling the shots and not the pundits here, actually believe the fate of the Western world hinged on the fate of Ukraine they would’ve had troops in there in 22. 23 at the latest, and in the course of this war it has been revealed Russia can’t even manage to conquer Ukraine.
A whole different ball game.
@Kathy:
Arguably the closest of the local states to nukes is Sweden, given their 1950’s/70’s program.
NATO and EU support terms already make Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland, Sweden, Denmark etc closely coupled.
European high level opinion is alrady calcualting that a MAGA USA cannot be relied upon.
And, to be honest, that Democrats are not necessarily to be much more trusted in extermis.
“De Gaulle was right” is whispered in many places in Europe.
The problem is, an effective respose requires a revival of something like the 1950’s abortive European Defennce Community, to overcome the massive inefficiency costs of separate national procuremnt. logistics etc.
But there you run into a whole load of national political issues.
imho, it will get sorted, eventually, out of force majeure.
But it will involve a lot of kicking and screaming.
Ascent to Power is seldom painless.
@JohnSF:
@dazedandconfused:
One thing I often wonder is how Zelensky and the Ukrainian leadership feel about the aid and support they’ve received from the US and Europe?
In their place, I’d feel it has been insufficient, slow, hard to get sometimes, and requires way too much ass kissing in return. Especially considering Ukraine is weakening Russia, while paying the butcher’s bill in blood and many deaths.
S@Jen:
The White House released a statement today saying that the MRI was for preventative reasons.
@Kathy:
Generally grateful nonetheless, as without it they would’ve been screwed. Ukraine’s top artillery officer has given many candid, insightful interviews on YouTube worth watching. His interviews made early in the war are panning out to have been accurate predictions. An extraordinarily savvy cannon-cocker, Nom de vid: “Arty Green”.
ETA: After posting the link I reviewed it, and found that his earlier vids have been buried. Apparently nothing older than a year is still there. I am saddened but understand. He had some criticisms of Ukrainian officers and some semi-dire predictions which, however accurate they might have been, were unwise for an officer to make public during a war.
@dazedandconfused:
True.
Almost all wars are diffrent to other wars.
It cannot be overstated how DIVIDED Europe is.
Europe is quite simply not a unitary body; and within the umpteen separate state, you have diffrent parties acting, and then the various states squabbling,
And that’s even before you get to EU vs non-EU (=UK)
It’s a mess.
And three major insitutional decison makers in key European players (UK, Germany, Poland) still simply cannot think it possible that the US would simply f@ck them.
They continue to hope that the Washington establishment will somehow ride over the horizon to their rescue, and mean they will not have to make the hard choices.
Eventually, the lesson will get learnt.
Whether that comes in time for suficient collective action to save Ukraine is another matter.
But from the US pov, it may be a serious long-term problem.
If the UK, Germany, and Poland etc abandon the “we can rely on the US” default in favour of the French “no we can’t” default, that is going to massively affect US positions going forward.
Either under Republican or Democrat adminstrations.
@dazedandconfused:
Ukrainian sources I know are quite clear: absent US/European supplies of howitzers/shells, AFV, SAM, etc, Ukraine would have been in very bad place.
However, it’s significant how much Ukrianian domestic production, with European support, has increased.
As I’ve said before: it’s often forgotten that Ukraine is in fact a major technical/industrial player in it’s own right.
Combine that with European finance and manufacturing capabilty, and that alone is a major factor in industrial warfare.
Well, it’s December 1st. In 15 days, my “fork in the road” moment will come. My family has been ranching and raising cattle in Wyoming since the late 1880’s. That ends December 15th.
A Mr Moneybags showed up in town and has so far purchased almost 80,000 acres in deeded ground and grazing leases. $$$$ is all my Mom and brother saw, so I got outvoted.
I have agreed to stay until the cows (this “elite” outfit wants every cow I own) come home next fall to help with the transition. I close on a nice little place in Southwestern Oregon on January 2nd. Cracker (cuz I know you’re still reading, you stubborn bastard 😉 ), Luddite, we’ll practically be neighbors!
It’ll take me 9 months at least to caravan all my ranch shit to the new place.
@Jax:
My best hopes for you in Oregon.
Will you still be mainly raising cattle there, or do you have to shift to mixed arable/livestock?
I seem to recall your photos from your place a while back.
So beautiful, but also so scarily wild, from a British pov.
@Kathy:
It really varies.
Ukraine has, in fact, received far more aid from Europe than from the US.
But some key US assistance has been vital: intel data, Patriot SAM/MDS.
“Europe” is not a single thing, as Ukrainians often seem quite clear about.
For instance, Germany still stubbornly refuse to supply Taruus misiles, seemingly out of “we must never annoy the Ami’s” cringe.
And Europe in general (except for France) is still addicted to delusion of “the good sheriff from Washington will soon come riding over the horizon to our rescue”.
@Jax:
Good luck and safe travels.
Good decisions aren’t always easy to make.
@JohnSF:
I’m sure in the movie “Darkest Hours,” one of Winston’s speeches to the commons ends with the expectation, or hope, that the new world would come to the aid, or rescue, of the old world.
Maybe he did say this, maybe not. It’s close to the end of the movie, which is the Dunkirk evacuation. At that time, with France about to fall, British and French troops trapped, there wasn’t much else to hope for.
And it wouldn’t happen for over 1.5 years…
@Jax:
Welcome to Oregon. I live on Hwy 101, between Yachats and Waldport.
@Kathy:
Churchill always seemed to have believed that the inevitable logic of the strategic situatution, plus political/cultutral factors, would mean the US could not accept a German supremacy in Europe.
Until the US came round to that conclusion, he seems to have thought (along with most) the UK, with the Empire/Dominions in support, could hold until relieved.
Which was reasonable: Germany had no realistic prospect of invasion, certainly after the German Navy was decimated in Norway, against the Royal Navy on a “Death Ride”.
And even that was unecessary as long as the RAF remained operative; which even winning the aerial Battle of Britain could not ensure, because the RAF at worst could simply retire north, and surge south against invasion.
The only realistic German hope for victory was to clear North Africa, secure the Med, take Gibraltar and Suez, and win the Battle of the Atlantic with bases down the African coast.
Hitler instead gambled on a quick win against the Soviets, fool that he was.
Once he turned east, without securing west, he was doomed, so long as the US was prepared to sustain the UK
This piece about large scam centers filled with the latest tech, is a horrifying thing to contemplate. The scams, which are really bad, are not the worst part. It’ the trafficked human labor.
I’m stunned at how much revenue such scams produce, and that no tech bros have gotten in on the action. It seems to be one ares where AI is helping to make actual massive revenue.
the whole thing is disgusting.
@Scott O: I’ll be right around Sutherlin. In fact, I’m like the last place before 138 heads toward Reedsport. It’s a really lovely place, I have a high hill that I can look over the Umpqua river as it heads to the ocean. Dad would like it.
Coffee, someday? Or the seafood pot pie at Harbor Light in Reedsport. Man, I love that place. Marionberry lemonade and seafood pot pie.
@JohnSF: I will be taking my Wyoming cattle, eventually. I have to get the fences put up right for Wyoming cattle. Oregon cattle are a lot more tame, I think. Blackberry brambles are fences, out there.
It’s interesting how “out west” differs, when you’re “out west”.
@Jax:
Best to you Jax. I have a lot of respect for people who take considered leaps of faith like this. For this and other reasons, I have a lot of respect for you.
@Jax: I would not have thought of SW Oregon as much of a place for cattle ranching. Dairy farming, yes, but I don’t think that’s the same thing?
Granted, I really have not strayed far from I-5 in Oregon, but I’ve done that a lot.