In Front of our Noses: The Golden Dome
Another example.
For an explanation of the title, see this post.
Via the AP: Trump selects concept for $175 billion ‘Golden Dome’ missile defense system.
President Donald Trump has announced the concept he wants for his future Golden Dome missile defense program — a multilayered, $175 billion system that for the first time will put U.S. weapons in space.
Speaking Tuesday from the Oval Office, Trump said he expects the system will be “fully operational before the end of my term,” which ends in 2029, and have the capability of intercepting missiles “even if they are launched from space.”
This is simply absurd and should be highlighted.
- The Iron Dome system in Israel protects against a relatively tiny space. Israel is roughly 8,000 square miles in total. The continental United States is over 3,000,000 square miles (and that does not include Canada, which Trump stated could be included). The orders of magnitude here are immense.
- The Iron Dome protects against fairly low-tech missiles. What Trump is describing is protection from ICBMs and hypersonic weapons.
- It is not going to cost only $175 billion.
- It is not going to fully operational by 2029.
See this from Scientific American: Why Some Experts Call Trump’s ‘Golden Dome’ Missile Shield a Dangerous Fantasy and David S. Bernstein at Good Politics/Bad Politics: Dumb Evidence for Dumb Ideas.
Also:
- The Independent: How achievable is Trump’s Golden Dome plan?
- The Hill: 5 things to know as Trump rolls out Golden Dome missile defense shield.
- The Conversation: Golden Dome: An aerospace engineer explains the proposed nationwide missile defense system.
Even the less skeptical pieces underscore that this is mostly conceptual and will take longer and cost more than Trump promises.
There are also real questions about cost versus benefit.
See also: We’re going to build a beautiful wall that will stop all illegal immigration and Mexico will pay for it.
It sells because it’s easy for the marks to understand, while the impossibility of it all is something the marks care not to think about.
Could we build Golden Dome? In three years? Not a chance. In ten years? Maybe, but for half a trillion at a minimum. The countermeasures cost very little, meaning that any competent nuclear power will be able to exhaust our supply of missiles and then have an open field. We cannot win a tit-for-tat firing million dollar missiles at Dollar Store countermeasures.
The only possible adversary this would impress in North Korea. And we could wipe out Kim’s nuclear program for a hell of a lot less than this con job will cost us.
But that’s forgetting the most important aspect of this ‘plan’: it has the word ‘gold’ in it.
“Sir, sir! It’s gold!”
“Gold? Gold good. Me like gold! More gold on more things!’
Like a toddler mesmerized by daddy shaking his keys.
I get that everyone hates MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction), but it does seem to have prevented a nuclear exchange.
When Reagan proposed something like this, it was widely criticized as destabilizing.
Hmm, the third link says this:
And yeah, we have lots of missile defense systems now, mostly fairly short range ones. So maybe MAD is a dead man walking?
Maybe what is required is more sensors and better sensor integration.
@Jay L Gischer:
And rightly mocked as “Star Wars.”
Wait til they see how much the tariffs will jack up the price for the science fictional lasers the thing requires.
Because Vulcan, Coruscant, and Cardasia won’t be the ones paying the tariffs.
@Jay L Gischer:
I can’t post well now, because I’m limited to a phone for the foreseeable future. So, the short version:
A system that stops some incoming ICBMs may be possible to deploy, given sufficient time and funding. How much of each, depends on whom you ask. For sure, far longer than 3 years and a lot more tha $175 billions.
Notice “some.” Say 10 to 30% at a guess, assuming a full broadside attack by Russia or China. And depending on what you prioritize to protect: cities or missile silos.
Even assuming a 30% success rate, the remainder is enough to wreck the country. Also likely to unleash nuclear winter even without a counterstrike.
Prediction: 3 years from now there won’t be any significant deployment, the whole thing will still be making tests and spending lots of money.
Pretty girl, beware of his dome of gold..
This dome is coooooold
I haven’t read any of the articles because of course it’s just more Trumpy BS, but surely Congress has some say in this level of expenditure?
“And we are going to position downward firing AI controlled interceptor systems in space, developed by Elon. Because what could possibly go wrong?”
@reid:
The Sinister Six on the SCOTUS are working on that.
The president told reporters that he suggested a comprehensive new missile defense system to U.S. military leaders, and they agreed, not the other way around.
I bet they came up to him with tears in their eyes and asked “Sir, how come you know so much about this stuff?”
I’m sure the Pentagon would love any idea that shovelled another $175 billion their way, no matter how idiotic it was.
@reid: The House’s Big Awful Bill includes a down payment of $25 billion, which will presumably go to Musk to run lots of tests.
I dub it the Pleasure Dome. A stately palace.
Designed by the re-animated corpse of Albert Speer.