Israeli Pager Attack Update
My thoughts on what we know now.
Yesterday morning, I wrote about the Israeli intelligence operation that killed a handful of Hezbollah operatives and wounded hundreds of others using sabotaged pagers. Based on what I knew then, I believed that the operation was tactically brilliant, of unknown strategic benefit, and seemed unconcerned with collateral damage. That’s still right, I think, but with some nuanced differences.
The degree of planning and tradecraft that went into the operation was actually even better than I understood at the time. The pagers, branded under a Taiwanese company’s name and manufactured in Hungary, were actually made by a Mossad shell company. And they’ve been supplying Hezbollah leadership for more than two years. Further, the shift of so many Hezbollah operatives to pagers was a result of Mossad operations that made clear that the terrorist group’s mobile phones were compromised. Additionally, more concentrated follow-on explosions yesterday in other communications devices throughout the region demonstrate a more far-reaching operation than initial impressions.
While I still believe setting off the pagers at 3:30 in the afternoon local time significantly increased the likelihood of innocents, including children, being killed, the explosions were more targeted than I initially understood. While bystanders, including children, were indeed killed and maimed, the amount of explosives in the pagers was quite contained. I still don’t know the ratio of Hezbollah operative-to-noncombatant casualties but now believe it considerably higher on the left side of that equation than I did yesterday morning.
How this fits into Israel’s larger strategy remains unclear to me. Clearly, this operation was designed to disrupt Hezbollah’s command and control. Additionally, it almost surely makes not only Hezbollah operatives but those around them incredibly fearful. That’s brilliant psychological warfare. What I don’t know is whether this was supposed to happen in preparation for IDF military action but got pushed up because of evidence Hezbollah had gotten wise to the plan, whether this was a deterrence operation designed to facilitate a cease-fire, or something else.
Well said. I’m going to hang back on this topic, as my knowledge of the ME is scant at best, and my bloody mindedness is well known.
Peter Zeihan offered the suggestion that Israel is likely monitoring Beirut hospitals and banking a whole lot of Hezbollah member names. But I doubt pure intel gathering was the whole point.
It’s all guesswork as to whether this was a prelude to an invasion, whether that is still to come, or whether imminent discovery made it necessary to pull the trigger. It is a brilliant op tactically, whether it is part of something larger, like you, I dunno.
If the pager attack had occurred in coordination with a larger Israeli offensive, then it would be a tactical success in support of the main Israeli strategy. But as it has played out, it will have no lasting effect on Hezbollah and because of the civilians killed/injured, it adds ammunition to those who are calling Israel a terrorist state.
So, just to clarify here… if enemies specifically target military personnel of western nations who are going about their day to day life (and Israel is certainly culturally a western nation, so let’s include it in the list) that is not to be counted as a terrorist attack?
@Assad K: Hezbollah is a terrorist group and treated differently under the laws of armed conflict. But we have also blurred the idea of war zones for regular military personnel. It’s certainly arguable that a UAV pilot operating in Nevada to kill targets in Syria or Yemen is a fair target going to and from work.
Is it time to start mourning for the 8 people killed and hundreds maimed yet, or are we still talking tactics?
@just nutha: I for one, am not going to mourn the death of any member of Hezbollah, a terrorist group that holds the entire population of Lebanon hostage, staging military operations from that country and thereby putting the entire population at risk. Hezbollah operatives are legitimate and well deserved targets. By embedding themselves in the civilian population and staging attacks from the middle of densely populated areas, they are guaranteeing innocents will be killed. And while I think Israel is wantonly and needlessly killing and terrorizing civilians in Gaza the pager attack in Lebanon seems designed to minimize civilian casualties. Given that, the responsibility for the civilian deaths should be laid at the feet of the armed militants who occupy and control Lebanon, not Israel.
Evidently the only legitimate move Israel can make as it is relentlessly attacked by groups sworn to destroy the country, is to send polite notes to Hezbollah asking them to surrender to the proper authorities.
First it was genocide! You know, the kind of genocide that is paused for polio vaccines and has at this point still not killed 2% of the genocidees, and now it’s on to war crimes and accusations of terrorism.
Israel is a culturally western country? Says who? There are far more Israelis either born in Israel, or immigrated from surrounding Arab countries, than there are European Jews. They’ve been a country in the Middle East for 76 years. Are they neighbors to Belgium and France? They are in the Middle East, surrounded by countries they’ve had to beat repeatedly to get any sort of peace. And they front two murderous, Iran-armed terrorist groups which regularly, every single day, fire missiles at civilian targets in Israel.
You’d think by now, after Vietnam, Afghanistan, Somalia and Iraq, that Americans would have learned a little humility. But nope. The half-informed people of the luckiest, more powerful nation on Earth, a nation stolen in its entirety from previous inhabitants, a nation built on slavery, a nation that still to this day has Indians on reservations, love to explain to Israelis currently in bomb shelters how they should behave. Jesus Christ.
If these pagers were sold to the terrorist wing of Hezbollah, then their possession by Hezbollah “politicians” is revealing. As is the possession by the Iranian Ambassador, who in a bit of karma lost an eye. Karmic because the Iranian terror government he represents traumatically destroy an eye of women and other protestors in Iran.
The same for the “back up” radios that were triggered yesterday reportedly due to fears that their compromised condition might be revealed as Hezbollah investigates the pager ruptures.
On the upside, Mossad manufacturing likely upgraded the seam welds on the devices to improve the pressure vessel characteristics which improved their ruggedness and waterproofness.
@MarkedMan: Will you lament the death of an 8-year-old girl at least?
On the other hand, she is probably the daughter of a Hezbollah operative/sympathizer so never mind. She should have been more careful choosing her parents. My mistake.
A little off-topic, but also on-topic:
Pity it was Arabs doing this and not Jews. Then someone might have noticed. There might even have been protests.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
Of course. Just as I mourn the civilians Hezbollah has killed, in Israel, in Lebanon, and who knows where else.
@Michael Reynolds:
It’s in the NY Times. I think that qualifies as being noticed.
@Michael Reynolds:
I absolutely hate it when people bemoan the news not noticing some atrocity when the same person only knows about the atrocity because of the NEWS. Bah, how illogical can you be? It just reveals someone who refuses to use their brain and thus can be considered “stupid”.
“Additionally, it almost surely makes not only Hezbollah operatives but those around them incredibly fearful.”
Israel, and the terrorists for that matter, have both been engaging in tactics that would supposedly make the other side fearful. Is there any evidence that has changed anything? I think it makes Israeli intelligence and Israeli leaders feel good after the massive intelligence failure of 10/7, but otherwise I am not seeing much strategic value. So now Hezbollah starts double checking stuff it buys. Not seeing tons of value there. If it had been done immediately before or during a major attack disrupting communications then I could see some real value.
Also, isn’t it a bit hard to believe that it was Israel’s operatives convincing Hezbollah that Israel was tracking their phones. Heck, WalMart does that so they had to know their phones were vulnerable.
Steve
@Michael Reynolds: Are we funding that Arab militia? Does the leader of that militia make appearances in front of our congress?
We are closely tied to Israel, and that makes their actions bigger news.
@MarkedMan:
No. Israel is responsible for their actions — they aren’t being forced into doing anything, and Hezbollah doesn’t have some mind control apparatus.
Hezbollah is also responsible, as one is always responsible for the reasonably likely consequences of their actions, but there is no “they made me do it!” excuse for Israel that absolves them of all responsibility.
All that said, if the seven other people killed were Hamas, then a 7:1 ratio of legitimate targets to bystanders is really good when targeting people in a civilian environment. If only 1/8th of the people killed in Gaza were civilian bystanders, few people in the US would be upset about it, and we would consider it a fairly well targeted operation rather than a war upon a civilian population that meets the UN definitions of genocide if not the common use definitions.
@steve:
Given the pervasiveness of ads, and “personalization”, I would expect that Israel is using commercial ads systems to identify Hamas and Hezbollah supporters.
The Hezzies haven’t committed an act of terrorism in nearly 10 years and are part and parcel of the Lebanese government. This was an act of war IMO, not an anti-terrorist op.
We really can’t judge the efficacy because we don’t know yet what the objective was. Is it to cow the Hezzies into ceasing this war or a prelude to escalation? What will be the net effect in either case? Without intent we can’t tell if it was a success or mistake.
IMO the Hezzies should’ve bowed out of this war and unilaterally by stopped the tit for tat exchanges. They clearly did not want to be part of the HAMAs war when it began, slowly as it did with individual retaliatory exchanges on the border and their public comments. They are in no shape for a repeat of 2006 because Iran is a heck of a lot poorer and they lost a lot of people in the war against ISIS. Israel might’ve been wise to do the same thing, and it might’ve stopped as well. I really can’t tell if Israel is trying to deescalate or escalate. It may be Bibi wants another war to save himself.
@dazedandconfused: Asking for a friend: If “[t]he Hezzies haven’t committed an act of terrorism in nearly 10 years and are part and parcel of the Lebanese government,” does that make the IDF/Mossad/whoever the aggressors in this case, or are we still going with “victims of circumstance propelled by conditions forced on them?”
If I had operational control of communications within my enemy, the last thing I would do is allow someone to fuck it up by putting bombs in the very tools that allow me to monitor communications. Monitoring communications is orders of magnitude more valuable than whatever damage accomplished by blowing a few people up. And that’s ignoring the legal and political consequences of randomly blowing up anyone who uses the pagers I’ve supplied.
I question the intelligence of anyone who would seriously consider this idiotic plot, let alone carry it out.
@just nutha:
It wasn’t intended to excuse anyone, just a comment about the labeling of terrorist, which has become so over-used it’s meaningless.
@Crusty Dem: Yes, that’s what I was thinking. It would seem to me there is more to gained by knowing the communications and the recipients instead of killing a few and blowing the operation, but what do I know. Also, while Hezbollah is a terrorist organization, I don’t think it is accurate to paint anyone associated with the organization as such. They control half of Lebanon and if you need anything done you need to deal with them as they are the de facto government. To do so is getting near Timothy McVeigh territory.
@dazedandconfused:
Does that include the rocket attack onto a soccer field that killed 12 children and wounded 29 others in July 2024?
@SKI!: Aha! A counterargument with a source, no less. Thank you for an additional point to consider that tilts the discussion yet another direction.
If Hezbollah had launched a similar attack which injured thousands of Israeli politicians and soldiers, killing dozens, most Americans would be screaming that it was a barbaric organisation which needed to be utterly destroyed.
America’s comparatively recent willingness to excuse any terrorist atrocities the Netanyahu government commits as “self defence” is beneath contempt.
@SKI!:
Are we pretending that there hadn’t been post 10/7 missile exchanges before July now? That Hezzi rockets always land where they are aimed?
@Raoul:
Dealing with a de-facto government?
The UK dealt with German de-facto governments by obliterating entire cities, and aiming at mass starvation of Germans.
As did the US regarding Imperial Japan.
And both were entirely right to do so.