Judge Cannon Dismisses Trump’s Classified Document Case
Expect an appeal and a long wait
![[Documents taken in August Mar-A-Lago search]](https://otb.cachefly.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/FbdY32sX0AEIBa0-edited.jpg)
In a somewhat surprising move, this morning District Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the classified documents case Jack Smith brought against former President Donald Trump. The basis for the dismissal was that Independent Counsel Jack Smith was illegally appointed. Legal analysts had considered this a possibility after Judge Cannon opted to hold an amicus (friend of the court) briefing on the topic a few weeks ago.
Some conservative legal scholars and commentators have held that Independent Councils, like Smith, can only be appointed by the Senate. However, this has been litigated a number of times in Federal Court, one of the last times being over the appointment of Robert Mueller, and the appointments have been upheld. For more details on this debate, see this primer from FactCheck.org, which does a good job of laying out both positions.
So what does this mean for Smith’s prosecution? I expect that within the next 48 hours, we’ll see an appeal to the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals. Given how outside of normal precedent this ruling is, and the Circuit’s past rulings on Cannon’s actions, I expect they will probably overturn this decision. However, that could easily take months. It’s highly probable the ruling might not come before the election.
What happens after that is anyone’s guess. The case may be appealed to the Supreme Court–especially if the ruling is against Trump. However, depending on timing, it’s also possible that the Justice Department ultimately opts to drop the prosecution if Trump is elected in the fall.
Given the recent immunity decision and other precedent overturning Supreme Court decisions, there is no telling how the current Supreme Court would rule on this. Justice Thomas definitely agrees with the conservative legal theory—Cannon cites his writings in her decision. Justice Alito will most likely support it. I feel like the rest of the conservatives on the court could go either way.
The only thing we can be sure of is that this will not be resolved before the election.
Random additional bits and bobs on the topic:
1. Matt’s speculation: This decision might have been a convenient off-ramp for Justice Cannon. With this ruling, she ensures that this will drag on past the election and takes herself off the case without having to recuse herself. To be clear this is rampant speculation on my part, but I have to think that she’s more than willing to be overturned at the Circuit level to get this headache off her plate (especially if she believes that Trump will win the election).
2. Jack Smith does have other options. Lawyer and commentator Amee Vanderpool lays a number of them out in this tweet:
3. As noted in another thread, we are already starting to see cracks in Trump’s latest attempt to strike a unifying tone:
As we move forward in Uniting our Nation after the horrific events on Saturday, this dismissal of the Lawless Indictment in Florida should be just the first step, followed quickly by the dismissal of ALL the Witch Hunts — The January 6th Hoax in Washington, D.C., the Manhattan D.A.’s Zombie Case, the New York A.G. Scam, Fake Claims about a woman I never met (a decades old photo in a line with her then husband does not count), and the Georgia “Perfect” Phone Call charges. The Democrat Justice Department coordinated ALL of these Political Attacks, which are an Election Interference conspiracy against Joe Biden’s Political Opponent, ME. Let us come together to END all Weaponization of our Justice System, and Make America Great Again!
Donald Trump Truth Social 10:41 AM EST 07/15/24
https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1812860687796117535
I guess it’s an improvement that he didn’t directly blame Joe Biden for the prosecutions (as he has in the past). That said, give it time, especially as it becomes increasingly clear that folks are unwilling to fall in line behind his specific definition of unity (i.e. supporting me).
4. Also, if you are someone who supports the line of reasoning that the Independent Counsel was improperly appointed, note that for consistency’s sake, Hunter Biden’s conviction and pending case may need to be thrown out, too. The special counsel in that investigation was appointed in exactly the same way as Smith or Mueller. Admittedly, Wiess is a Senate-approved prosecutor. However, Cannon’s legal reasoning seems to suggest that there still needs to be Senate approval to elevate him to an Independent Counsel.
Are we still pretending to have a federal court system? This case is dead. There is no point appealing it. SCOTUS has declared an end to the rule of law.
This is a most peculiar witch hunt.
Do we still have to pretend that she’s simply underexperienced but doing her very best in a difficult case, or can we now call her corrupt without being chided for partisanship?
@wr:
Not that you ever needed my permission, but I think the evaluation period has long since passed. What we have seen from Judge Cannon is a mix of partisanship and inexperience that will be talked about in legal circles for decades.
@wr:
Trump appointed Cannon, and she’s simply furnishing the loyalty he requires of his appointees.
@Michael Reynolds:
An interesting thought, based on a Supreme Court ruling a week back… Now that Justice Cannon has found a way to dismiss the case, she is open to accepting gratuities following her decision.
Per the supreme court, bribes before a decision are made is bad, but (even if you wish, wheelbarrows full of) gratuities paid after the fact are acceptable.
I expect new cars and a G6 in Ms. Cannon’s future. Maybe an RV and trips to Putin’s hometown (like Justice Thomas).
Uniting under a MAGA America is wonderful, that is, IF you have wealth and power.
Judge Cannon played this perfectly. By dragging the case out and at this late stage dismissing it on procedural grounds, she has ensured the case cannot be resolved at the appellate level before the election and also most probably, by the inauguration on January 20th. If, as it now seems likely, Trump is elected we may soon be looking at Justice Aileen Cannon.
@a country lawyer:
You know, it wasn’t that long ago, say 3 years ago, that such conjecture would have been dismissed as ‘possible but not probable.’ Now? If Tump is elected and there’s a Republican Senate, I’d say ‘possible, probable, and very likely.’ AND … Cannon is only 43 years old, she could be on The Courts for over 40 years. Perfect Republican qualification.
@a country lawyer:
No, Chief Justice.
Opinions will be released the last day of June or July or September, every other year.
@a country lawyer: She timed this case out months ago. Every new assertion that “now it won’t go to trial before the election” becomes every more yesterday’s news. She has been running clock for a long time and now she is sufficiently confident that her work here is done that she can take it off her docket. Even if the 11th Circuit blew her up in a month it would never get to trial before November. Even if the DOJ refiled this as its own case, it would not go to trial before November. Even if they got a new (real) judge, it would not go to trial before November. Unless the Democrats take the White House, this case will never see the light of day.
@Liberal Capitalist: It would be nice for her if it worked out, but I don’t think Trump has the kind of money needed to give gratuities of the sort you suggest anymore.
@Liberal Capitalist: “I expect new cars and a G6 in Ms. Cannon’s future. Maybe an RV and trips to Putin’s hometown (like Justice Thomas).”
I expect a promotion.
@just nutha:
Who said it has to be Trump? His supporters have very deep pockets.
Just a gift from a grateful nation. (wink wink)
And how do the Dems respond to this ultimate corruption of the federal bench and the future of further corruption should Trump be re-elected?
By running a feeble minded, one gaffe away from totally blowing the election, geriatric who will once again test our rationality when he no doubt goofs again on the softball 22 minute interview with Lester Holt tonight.
So what’s the WH excuses going to be when Joe inevitably mixes up names, speaks in his gravely pre Parkinson’s voice, then mangles syntax as he meanders from topic to topic without any semblance of linear thinking?
It’s clear about 46% of the population will vote for Squirt the Wonder Clam over Trump, just as Trump no matter who he kills on Park Avenue, will get the vote of 46% of the voters.
Bring on Harris and a white, midwestern VP i.e. Tester, Breshear, Brown, Pritzker, Polis, Mayor Pete and bet on Dem policies and new blood to get the 5-10% of the swing voters still undecided.
Also, I have invented the “DeLeon Rule’ named after Kevin DeLeon, a LA city councilman who whethered a racist storm which schite canned several of his colleagues because he held out and endured the media circus and cries for his head by just waiting out the 3 week attention span that the public has before it moves on to the next scandal.
By Novemeber, this assassination attempt will be almost forgotten. Trump will be knee deep in Lock Him Up chants, interest rates will decrease, the economy will be in good shape, the border crises mitigated and we will be left to ponder “now that Joe wet himself during the debate” maybe we should have listened to the “No Joe” chants at the Chicago convention, instead of playing “Dementia Roulette” with an obviously mentally diminshed Biden.
One way out for Joe? Take the phucking cognitive tests by an independent Dr chosen by Dem Congressional leaders. If he’s as sound as he and his aides say he is, what’s the delay and denial in taking one?
@just nutha: It would be nice for her if it worked out, but I don’t think Trump has the kind of money needed to give gratuities of the sort you suggest anymore.
Since bribery is legal (only after the fact, of course) what is to stop Trump from taking a few percent of all federal contracts? In 2023 the federal government awarded $759 billion in contracts. If he took 3% that would be a cool $22.8 billion. He’ll actually be a billionaire for real.
@Liberal Capitalist: I don’t see Trump supporters as generous enough to do either. To riff off the cliche, the Devil saves the bargains for the new souls; he doesn’t have to do anything for the people whose souls he already owns.
ETA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOzPcbNjY7s (Accidentally posted this to a Gustopher comment on another thread. 🙁 )
@SenyorDave: The fact that he’s known for leaving money on the table in his lust to fwk his business
opponentspartners over causes me to suspect he’s not smart enough to pull it off, but I’ve been wrong before. I’d be less happy about it this time though.@Just nutha ignint cracker: It will be a cabinet position, Secretary of Presidential Enrichment.
@just nutha:
Trump just appoints who he’s told to appoint. Those appointees don’t work for Trump; they work for Len Leo and his backers.
@SenyorDave: Yeah. That could work. I wonder if he’d have thought of it on his own. [facepalm]
@DrDaveT: All the more reason she won’t get nuthin’.
Refer to @Just nutha ignint cracker for details.
@Joe: “Unless the Democrats take the White House, this case will never see the light of day.”
Even if Biden/Harris wins the White House, this dismissal makes it increasingly likely that TFG will not be held accountable during his natural lifetime. By the time the 11th Circuit smacks down Cannon, the case is appealed, the SC hears it and eventually renders an opinion at least partially supporting the appeal and requiring further lower court action and generally a lengthy court do-loop, the Justice Department is forced to refile sans Special Counsel, and any verdict is rendered, it could be twenty thirty-something.
@just nutha:
I disagree. The paymasters have every reason to reinforce the idea that doing the Federalist Society’s bidding will be rewarded. It’s not her future fidelity they care about, at this point…