Outside the Beltway

Comments

1. Kathy says:
   Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 06:00

   I think Mad Vlad is trying to call El Taco a bad boy.

   IMO, El Taco will react to phrases such as “..cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law”, about as much as a dog would: without any comprehension.

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2. charontwo says:
   Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 06:27

   According to the Post, both Netanyahu and MBS have been lobbying Trump for weeks for the attack:

   “WaPo Gift”

   President Donald Trump launched Saturday’s wide-ranging attack on Iran after a weeks-long lobbying effort by an unusual pair of U.S. allies in the Middle East — Israel and Saudi Arabia — according to four people familiar with the matter, as Israeli and U.S. forces teamed to topple Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei after nearly four decades in power.

   Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman made multiple private phone calls to Trump over the past month advocating a U.S. attack, despite his public support for a diplomatic solution, the four people said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, continued his long-running public campaign for U.S. strikes against what he views as an existential enemy of his country.

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3. gVOR10 says:
   Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 07:46

   @Kathy: In your link to NYT,

   Meanwhile, North Korea’s foreign ministry spokesperson said Israel’s attacks on Iran and the US military operation were “illegal aggression” and a violation of national sovereignty.

   We have fallen far when I’m forced to agree with North Korea. As with Afghanistan and Iraq, we’ve once more been led into war by an idiot Republican.

   @charontwo: Of course.

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4. DK says:
   Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 08:24

   @gVOR10: Yeah, but unlike North Korea’s foreign ministry, you don’t have troops inside Ukraine helping Putin’s imperialistic war machine murder Ukrainians. Your complaints about illegal aggression are more credible.

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5. gVOR10 says:
   Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 08:57

   @charontwo: WAPO finally emailed the link so I could read the story at your link. That story is really depressing, and a must read.

   I had an impression in Trump 1.0 that Putin realized he could play Trump like a fiddle, but he couldn’t keep Trump played. Apparently Netanyahu and MBS are more patient. I’ll also note WAPO wrote that whole story without mentioning the JCPOA or the Saudi investments in Trump family businesses. The latter an omission WAPO commenters quickly corrected

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6. Michael Reynolds says:
   Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 09:20

   @gVOR10:
   The end of Putin’s domination of Trump coincided quite neatly with the realization that the Epstein files were coming out. Trump still admires Putin – I mean, how could you not admire a Russian czar who can’t take Ukraine after four years – but I’ve always believed Putin had blackmail goods which became worthless once the truth started coming out.

   The deeper blackmail though isn’t about raping little girls, it’s that Epstein was feeding intel to Russia, including what he got from Trump. But Putin hardly wants to suggest that child sex trafficking would be used by his KGB. That might tarnish his reputation.

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7. Michael Reynolds says:
   Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 10:03

   BTW, I want to apologize for that thumbnail of me. It started as a goof with my wife who, upon seeing the pic she’d taken, said I looked like Obi Wan, which I objected to since I was clearly going for Gandalf the White. I replaced that picture months ago and the new one has propagated everywhere – except here. I don’t know why.
8. charontwo says:
   Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 10:06

   “Mick Ryan – Futura Doctrina”

   Pretty depressing read re: impact of Iran operation on Ukraine and China:

   Thinking beyond the immediate Iran campaign, what might be the impact of this new Iran War on Ukraine and strategic competition in the Pacific?

   Impact on Ukraine. The immediate strategic question is not whether the Iran operation affects Ukraine. It unquestionably does. The key issue is how severe those effects prove for Ukraine, and whether this creates opportunities Russia can exploit.

   The most direct impact concerns American munitions production and allocation. Israel’s strikes employed approximately 200 fighter jets hitting 500 targets across Iran, requiring substantial expenditure of precision-guided munitions (PGM). Some of these PGMs are what Ukraine desperately needs for medium and long-range strike against Russian logistics and command nodes. More importantly, reloads for air defence interception systems like the Patriot are critical to Ukrainian defences, but are in heavy demand at present in the Middle East.

   Any reduction in Western munitions deliveries, whether from production diversion or bureaucratic bandwidth limitations, directly translates to Ukrainian defensive capability degradation. Russia’s General Staff will almost certainly have noted this, and with the pending warmer weather in Ukraine, may amend offensive operations plans to exploit any temporary Ukrainian capability gaps while American attention and production capacity focuses on Iran.

   Much more re: Ukraine, all of it bad, then this:

   Ultimately, the central issue is that American commitments against Iran, defending regional nations, its focus on the Western hemisphere and the need to sustain Pacific operations means that Ukraine may fall to the bottom of American military and strategic priorities even faster than forecast in the recent U.S. National Defense Strategy. That would be a tragedy for the people of Ukraine.

   Impact on the Pacific. The deployment of USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln to the Middle East, the largest dual-carrier concentration in the Middle East since 2003, represents more than regional power projection. It constitutes a reallocation of American naval power away from the Indo-Pacific at precisely the moment when China watches closely, calculating how American strategic overextension creates opportunities for Beijing in the region.

   The new strikes on Iran, regardless of operational success, signal to every Pacific ally and adversary that American commitments remain hostage to Middle Eastern contingencies – and the U.S. Western Hemisphere focus. This could possibly undermine allied deterrence credibility across the first island chain, a key objective in the new US National Defense Strategy.

   Beijing issued a standard diplomatic condemnation as the Iran attack commenced:

   China is highly concerned over the military strikes against Iran launched by the U.S. and Israel. Iran’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity should be respected. China calls for an immediate stop of the military actions, no further escalation of the tense situation, resumption of dialogue and negotiation, and efforts to uphold peace and stability in the Middle East.

   But in the lead up to the new war, China was hardly neutral. It was negotiating to provide Iran with CM-302 supersonic anti-ship missiles, new cyber defence systems, and kamikaze drones which may have been delivered just before the strikes commenced. This indirect support costs China minimal political capital. But it allows them to achieve three strategic outcomes:

   Deepening Iranian dependence on Chinese military technology.

   Demonstrating to regional actors that Beijing supports partners facing American pressure.

   Ensuring Iran remains capable of consuming American attention and resources that cannot be employed in the Pacific theatre.

   A recent Chatham House assessment argues that China’s surface-level neutrality masks a much more calculated long-term strategic direction. The weaker Iran becomes from American strikes, the more dependent Tehran grows on Beijing for diplomatic protection, economic support, and military technology. China avoids direct confrontation with the United States while positioning itself as Iran’s indispensable partner.

   This is exactly the strategic calculus that Beijing has successfully employed with Russia over the past four years. From China’s perspective, American military action against Iran serves Chinese interests by creating dependency relationships Beijing can exploit while diverting American resources from competition in the Pacific theatre.

   Again, more at the link. Iran is, effectively, a wholly owned vassal of China, doesn’t do anything China is not OK with.

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9. Sleeping Dog says:
   Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 11:00

   @Michael Reynolds:

   I don’t know, I thinking you resembled the Sheik of Arabique.

   3
10. Slugger says:
    Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 11:40

    I know very little about Iran, and my speculations are not worth much. However, I think that this war will have a big impact on the USA. The President has successfully taken unilateral action, and the checks and balances that they taught me in grade school are clearly out the window. A few people object, but they are marginalized as leftist nuts. Will Trump seize control of the midterm elections? Why not, who’s going to stop him? Will there be an emergency requiring a third Trump term? Again, why not? Now Trump is old and will decline, but a regency committee of Hegseth, JD Vance, and Rubio can easily extend his rule to 2040. Trump’s successors are unlikely to give up any of the powers that he has taken; politicians don’t give up power. I think that there is a real possibility that America’s governance will evolve into an autocracy. I do not see any person or institution poised to counteract this.

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11. Erik says:
    Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 12:37

    @charontwo: I wonder if there is an opportunity here for someone with a big enough media reach to frame the whole thing in the terms that Trump uses: they are taking advantage of us/playing us for suckers/not paying us back. I mean I’m sure they’re paying Trump back, but not ‘merica (in the MAGA sense). Bonus points for making Trump look like he personally got played

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12. Flat Earth Luddite says:
    Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 13:09

    @Sleeping Dog:

    I was thinking more frank zappa

    Sheik Yerbouti https://share.google/w05numyML8A0zIY7O

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13. charontwo says:
    Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 13:22

    Why Khamenei is dead:

    “Atlantic Gift”

    The conclusion at the end of the piece:

    Well, that’s one way to manage down. No one familiar with the Islamic Republic will be surprised that the whole system was riddled with people who believed in nothing but their own enrichment and survival, and who achieved their exalted positions through mediocrity. Iran’s leadership was a soft target.

    The ironic twist in this tale of human resources gone awry is that Khamenei was himself a talented leader in other ways. He looked at first like a nonentity, a caretaker to stand in for his much more charismatic and religiously accomplished predecessor. Instead he outlasted almost every dictator of his generation, and he created a network of proxies so ferocious that no enemy of Iran dared disturb it, until Israel decided it had no choice. He fended off challenges, including popular uprisings, in part because he came to power in a popular uprising of his own and knew instinctively how to neutralize them. And now he’s dead, and all of those accomplishments are crashing down, because the best-planned defenses don’t count for much if the people you trust to run them are ready to sell you out.

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14. Jay L. Gischer says:
    Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 14:26

    @Slugger: I want to push back on “a few people object, but they are marginalized as leftist nuts”. That is what certain parties want you to think, but it is not remotely accurate. See, for instance this LGM post

    Again, part of what the WH is doing, in addition to media intimidation, is trying to generate so much WTF? that it gives opposition little time to organize, let alone have a voice.

    Seriously, don’t fall for this. We have the numbers. Yes, they might try something. I think we need to be clear that we won’t put up with it. And when I say “we” I mean citizens, not politicians. Politicians, in spite of the designation “leader” are generally followers. In some sense, that’s how a democracy should work. WE have to set the example. We have seen citizens doing that.

    I feel that if Trump tries to control the election, California, where I live, will simply flip him the bird and ignore it. Saying “sue us”, and also “fascist takeover”. So I feel ok there, but what about other states? What can I do? I haven’t seen anything other than vague asks for money with no suggestion of what they will do with it.

    We will see.

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15. Gregory Lawrence Brown says:
    Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 15:11

    Call Any Vegetable
    Absolutely Free
    Mothers of Invention
    1967

    1
16. CSK says:
    Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 16:44

    @Sleeping Dog: @Flat Earth Luddite:

    I was thinking “Ahab the Arab, the sheik of the burning sands.”

    2
17. inhumans99 says:
    Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 21:24

    @Slugger:

    President Trump is not Putin, he may admire him but to be repetitive, Trump is not Putin.

    It may drive folks mad when Putin says he is much admired by the populace of Russia, but it is true. A lot of this love may be due to propaganda, but technically it is true.

    Other folks who ruled over their countries (like the now deceased leader of Iran) did so with a brutality that would take the breath away from even most hardcore MAGA folks, as folks who were in power in Iran just a few short weeks ago did not even seem to flinch that they had to do what it takes to shut the protests down as quickly and coldly as possible by massacring up to what, 35,000+ (!!!) of their citizens (and that is just the count from the most current round of protests).

    There are not enough Americans who would accept such an action undertaken by President Trump and his cronies to give him a third term. There just aren’t.

    We had our Civil War, hundreds of thousands dead on each side, this is not something that the majority of Americans want to repeat.

    As nasty as President Trump is, in the end he is currently an old bitter man with too much power handed to him by Congress, but there are limits to his power. If Israel told President Trump that the they needed him to put boots on the ground in Iran so Israel could consolidate their grip on power over the Middle East, so America needed to drop half a million or more soldiers on the ground in Iran to keep some semblance of control over their population he would most likely have to institute a draft.

    If that were to happen most of American would laugh so long and so loud at Trump, Hegseth, and Stephen Miller that it would shatter their eardrums.

    Trump is not going to take over Elections in America (including not taking over elections in Red States), for even in GOPlandia (aka, most of the states in the South) that would be a step to far. A whole metric shirtton of don’t tread on me folks would very much be tread upon by the Government, not at all what they would tolerate from the White House.

    Nah, Trump may get off at saying outlandish things he knows will get folks like myself all riled up, but the elections are going to happen and maybe even more smoother than usual.

    Also, even Hegseth has enough wits about him (and he does not need much to come to this conclusion) that he is spreading our Military apart too much too fast, between Iran, Venezuela, and Trump’s desire to tackle Cuba next, that is just too much too ask. I would even include Ukraine, as Trumps knows that in back of his mind that it would ultimately be a threat to our power if Russia is allowed to conquer Ukraine and eventually most of Europe, so he may publicly complain about Ukraine but will continue to offer enough support to Europe/Ukraine to keep Putin off balance for many months and years to come.

    Also, he is damn lucky that Mexico has a military that is willing to listen to the President of Mexico and actually went hard after the Cartel leadership without our having to dump an outrageous amount of personnel and munitions into Mexico’s hands to help them out. Otherwise, I would be adding Mexico to the list of what is spreading our military too thin.

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18. Michael Reynolds says:
    Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 22:27

    @inhumans99:

    There are not enough Americans who would accept such an action undertaken by President Trump and his cronies to give him a third term. There just aren’t.

    At least a third of Americans would not only support it, they would welcome it. These are not normal people, these are brainwashed, brain dead cult members, no different than the people in Jonestown or Waco. They’re attriting here and there – dying off, or in a very few cases, waking up. But let’s not kid ourselves, a good third of our friends and neighbors want, crave a Trump dictatorship.

    Fortunately it’s just a third. Not enough, as you say. At least not enough if all Americans have the balls of Minneapolitans.

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