Monday’ Forum
Steven L. Taylor
·
Monday, April 21, 2025
·
90 comments
OTB relies on its readers to support it. Please consider helping by becoming a monthly contributor through Patreon or making a one-time contribution via PayPal. Thanks for your consideration.
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a retired Professor of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on
Twitter and/or
BlueSky.
Pope Francis has passed away. RIP,
Apparently son-in-law health issues included 30# of extra fluid stressing his damaged heart. Who knew a high sodium junk food diet was bad for you? But I think he’s getting out of hospital today.
Anyway, hope everybody here has a good day.
OTOH, meeting with SWMBO’d siblings today about the convoluted issues around their brother’s estate. He died 10 years ago. I’m dreading this, which is probably why I’m awake after 3 hours sleep.
Catching up on the weekend OTB.
Regarding perverse nature of Immigration proceedings: Several years ago I accompanied a friend to her interview to renew her work visa. While standing in the cattle chute at the back door of the US embassy in Toronto we witnessed a immigration officer of some kind come through the line to get the names of those that were in line. When he arrived at the young woman immediately ahead of us (who was also getting a work visa renewed and was visibly pregnant) he screamed at her: “Who told you that you are allowed to become pregnant? ”
Before she could say anything, he moved on to the next applicant in line (us), The young woman began to cry and was so shaken up that she became ill with vomiting.
My friend, who was also there is renew, tried to calm her and assured her that the guy was just being a brute, there was nothing on her visa that forbade her from becoming pregnant. (she had already had arranged paid maternity leave from her employer).
She was still distraught with worry, I can’t imagine how her interview went.
Just an update:
Texas measles cases rise to 597. Here is what you need to know.
Of course, the antivaxxers are in the act spreading their lies and venom.
Anti-vaccine advocates battle over narrative in West Texas, downplaying role of measles in deaths
Nationwide (and surprised it is not suppressed yet)
:
Measles Cases and Outbreaks
So in just 4 months in 2025, we have 800 cases vs 285 in all of 2024.
@Bill Jempty: The Pope dies 2 days after meeting with JD Vance. Under Trump DOJ rules, Vance, as a non citizen who was at the scene of a death, can be seized by the Vatican police and “deported” to CECOT.
ETA – Francis was one of the better Popes. May he RIP.
Is google down? I have been trying to do searches for over three hours but always getting a timed out message.
The rest of my internet surfing is fine.
@Charley in Cleveland: The Pope dies just shortly after a visit from an emissary of Satan. Hmmm.
Texas is on the job to protect Texas’ children:
Virginia’s state flag removed from Lamar CISD database over breast
In case you all have forgotten about Pete Hegseth:
“Drezner substack”
snip
https://x.com/PeteHegseth/status/1914148561664561433
@Scott: HA. Reminds me of AG Ashcroft covering the boobs of statues because he didn’t like being photographed in front of them.
Many people are saying that Vance murdered Pope Francis. I’m not. But many people are saying it.
Speaking of potential epidemics:
Bird flu now spreading through wild mammals, Texas Parks and Wildlife confirms
@Scott:
All carnivores. Already known often as fatal to cats, including big cats in zoos.
Pope Francis dies just a short while after a rushed meeting with poseur JDVance.
Pope Francis, groundbreaking Jesuit pontiff, dies aged 88 | Pope Francis | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/21/pope-francis-dies
@Scott:
Colorado’s outbreak remains at three cases. The oldest case is past the date when anyone who was exposed while it was contagious who was going to get sick should have shown symptoms. The other two will reach that point during this week.
@Jen:..
@Scott:..
The Fugs-Boobs a Lot
1965
TRIGGER WARNING!
NSFW!
(unless you work in a strip club)
I wasn’t online yesterday, so apologies if this has already been discussed, but reorganizing the State Department by essentially eliminating work in Africa, and junking the foreign service entrance exam to lard up the Dept. with political hacks seems like a bad idea.
@Jen:
More DEI hires.
More seriously, no foreign policy continuity.
I finished season 2 of Severance yesterday. I may post cautiously about it later, as spoilers are unavoidable. The season premiered only a few months ago, so it’s likely many haven’t gotten around to it.
On the plus side, a third season is on, and the production hopes it won’t take three years to get to it…(barring a second trump pandemic and more strikes).
@Scott: “So in just 4 months in 2025, we have 800 cases [of measles] vs 285 in all of 2024.”
And, if history is any guide, the next step will be for so-called conservatives in Texas to: (i) order health officials to stop counting the number of cases, and to stop communicating with the public about anything in any event; (ii) speculate that swallowing harmful substances might help; (iii) applaud those who become infected, as they are bringing us closer to “peak immunity;” (iv) cut funding for health programs which might actually help vaccinate people or educate them about measles prevention; and (v) blame the outbreak on those outside the state, as well as undesirables within.
@Jen: One of the podcasts I listen to is Shield of the Republic from the Bulwark. Dry, studied, and serious. My kind of podcast. Two seasoned foreign policy hands (right of center if you have to characterize them) and institutionalists to the core. They are just appalled at this administration. I’m pretty sure this tearing down of the edifices of their lives will send them over the edge.
Per Politico, Hegseth may be on the way out.
@CSK:
My Drezner link upthead contains a whole lot of links re Hegseth, including linking Politico.
@charontwo:
Thanks.
Nothing encapsulates MAGA Christian hate as their responses to Senator Ted Cruz’ utterly normal condolences Facebook post on Pope Francis. https://www.facebook.com/SenatorTedCruz
@charontwo: In case you missed it: yesterday you claimed Mithras was resurrected in legend, but I can’t find any reference to it before the 1700’s. Could you provide links?
@Scott: “The Texas Parks and Wildlife Department has discovered avian flu in several species of mammals, including skunks, foxes and raccoons.”
Yes, but the Trump/RFKJr administration knows how to deal with this — they’ve decided to ignore the issue completely. And as we know from Trump’s first term, if you don’t count the number of infections they don’t exist.
Here’s your morning freak-out: The DOGE munchkins who took control of the National Labor Relations Board’s cloud IT systems trashed security, making it possible for Russian hackers to attack the system. Plus, the DOGEistas stole many GBs of data for…what purposes, exactly?
https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2025/04/150244
@Bill Jempty: Google seems to be working fine for me, Bill. Better than many other sites, in fact.
@Jay L Gischer:
Fine for me as well.
@Mister Bluster:
Yes. Boobs-a-lot. That brings back memories.
Doctor Demento. National Lampoon. Hustler.
The rallying cultural touchpoints of the forgotten-tail-end of the baby boomers. Those who are post Viet Nam kids and realized that what we were always told was complete bullshit.
Real free speech like we do not see in today’s fractured, segmented internet-absorbed milksop
I think the magazine Rolling Stone is one of the only ones that still today are unafraid of telling it as it is. Their reporting on the insanity of the Trump administration has been outstanding.
Fight the Power
@Kingdaddy: There are several aspects of that story that I can’t figure out. Why would the Russians care about NLRB data? Why would DOGE be (seemingly) much more aggressive toward the computer systems and data of NLRB?
The things described – especially that they turned off logging – are definitely alarming, though. I just can’t figure out the “why” of it.
Hm. the rapist says he’s standing strongly behind Hesgeth.
Now, a body resting on the ground exerts a force (weight) on it equivalent to its mass multiplied by the local gravitational acceleration (F=ma). So is this the rapist’s way of saying he’s gained weight?
@Bobert: Foreign nationals have to go to an embassy outside the US to get their work visas renewed? Wa! That’s cumbersome. I had to go to Japan to get my visa changed once, from E-2 to E-1, but everything else could be done in country.
Kristi Noem, our director of homeland security, had her purse stolen at a DC restaurant. She also claims she had $3K in cash on her.
@Jen: If we’d simply let Dixieland withdraw from the Union, we could have watched this circus happen 150-some years ago, and it would be over now.
And we wouldn’t be suffering the shame of participating in it. 🙁
@Jen: $3000 in cash? Who actually believes that? Or believes it because they think something bad of her like bribery, prostitution, etc.
@Fortune:
Misremembered I guess, but there are other examples. I don’t have time to go searching for links though.
@Jay L Gischer:
I think they are just harvesting peoples’ data for Musk to use. Musk wants to turn X into some sort of super-bank and payments/transactions system.
So much winning.
Boeing jet returns to US from China, a victim of Trump’s tariff war
On the other hand, the DOW is down almost 1100 points.
@Jay L Gischer: Whenever political type people talk about NLRB type stuff, my inner Teamster goes to anti-union and anti-organization-of-labor interests among RWNJ and other opponents of economic opportunity (ETA:) as well as economic and social mobility.
@Scott: I can believe something bad about Kristy Noem if we think it will help. As for carrying thousands, I carried as much as a million at times in Korea, but it’s not the same.
“Evil is being defeated by God.” — Marjorie Taylor Greene, on the death of Pope Francis
@Scott:
I would dearly love someday to learn the real price of new aircraft.
Anyway, this tells me the Chinese government is not granting tariff exemptions. China’s aviation market is BIG and it’s growing. Getting new aircraft takes years after placing orders, So the question is: who gets get hurt worse over this? China or America?
War isn’t just hell, it’s massively destructive. America is used to fighting offshore, taking little or no domestic damage in the process. Trade wars are far less dependent on the ability of an enemy to project military force beyond its borders.
@charontwo: @just nutha: So, for the domestic types, yeah I guess. Didn’t they have better targets? Haven’t they cracked SS, why would this be treated worse? I guess maybe someone who knew more finally spilled?
AND, why would Russia care about this data?
@CSK:
A lot of right wing folks are pleased, according to Steve M.:
https://nomoremister.blogspot.com/2025/04/your-right-wing-neighbors-hated-pope.html
@charontwo:
Oh, the MAGAs are celebrating.
@Jay L Gischer: Why are you making an automatic connection between this data and Russia? The Russia connection seems more a fallout issue: if gaps from DOGE action breach NLRB data bases, what other more FP serious breaches are there?
@Jay L Gischer:
My guess is the original DOGE data leak had to do with Musk stealing data relevant to his companies and competitors. Whatever was in that data was solely for Musk’s benefit.
The Russians then just get lucky and figure out that DOGE did something somewhere and were sloppy enough about it that they were able to get in and fuck around. I suspect the Russians were sloppy too and got caught only because they jumped the gun when people were actually looking.
The scarier thing is that we have to assume that all these systems are compromised. I’m guessing that various state and non-state actors are getting access constantly and the administration only knows about half the time and cares less.
@just nutha:
Yes, that was a surprise to me as well. My friend was born in Hong Kong and so she held a second class British citizen. Up till that time, I had never encountered an (official) second class citizen < She explained that it meant that she could travel freely to any of the British Commonwealth countries but she had to have "permission" – a visa to enter Great Britain.
Now I don't know if the US requires all foreign nationals (regardless of nationality) to have their work visa renewal interview at a US embassy or not. But what she told me was that it's a scary proposition, because IF (at the Embassy or Consulate) they decide not to renew, you won't be able to re-enter the (good old) US of A.
Here’s something cheery. The Boston Marathon went well. An American came in 4th in the Men’s division! Congrats to all participants and the city of Boston.
Kristi Noem had her purse stolen, at a DC restaurant, allegedly with $3,000 in it.
She is in charge of Homeland f’ing SECURITY!!!
@Daryl:
Well, she’s clearly not in charge of her personal belongings.
Not too long ago, I speculated that President Trump could “decertify” the SCT in an executive order and declare that only he could say what the law was. (This would be clearly unconstitutional, of course, but that hasn’t stopped the President in the past).
Looks like someone on the MAGA side has taken things further – to dissolving the Court.
““Ignore the Supreme Court. Arrest anyone who tries to enforce [a stay of deportation issued by the Supreme Court]. Dissolve the Supreme Court entirely if they push. You can deport foreigners, or you don’t have a country anymore. There are no good choices now,” conservative talk radio show host Jesse Kelly wrote on X. ” (emphasis added)
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5258916-supreme-court-trump-administration/
@Jen: “Kristi Noem, our director of homeland security, had her purse stolen at a DC restaurant”
If I may add a bit, Kristi Noem, our director of homeland security WHO HAS AROUND THE CLOCK PROTECTION FROM THE SECRET SERVICE had her purse stolen at a DC restaurant.
@just nutha: “Why are you making an automatic connection between this data and Russia? ”
According to the LGM piece, right after DOGE took over and wiped out the logging, there were several login attempts from Russia using DOGE credentials.
@Slugger:
Fourth by only four seconds, as well. He ran 2:05:08, which is second only to Ryan Hall among American men in Boston Marathon history.
@Winecoff46: I am wondering if this talk show host is familiar with something called the Constitution? Specifically, Article III?
@Winecoff46: You know, the Sedition Act, passed at the same time as the Alien Enemies Act – the thing the administration has been using aggressively – makes it illegal to publish “false, scandalous and malicious writing or writings against the government of the United States…”
I think Mr Kelly’s statement qualifies. Last time I checked the Supreme Court was part of the government of the United States.
Sadly, the Sedition Act expired in 1800.
Boeing’s troubles just keep getting worse.
Forget the planes returned from China, or not sending more there. The backlogs on all models are such that all planes in Boeing’s inventory should find buyers. Although retaliatory tariffs in other countries may affect this.
But a lot of components are made elsewhere. For the 787 in particular, Boeing outsourced a lot of components to suppliers in other countries. these will get charged tariffs. This could increase the real price of a jet by a fair amount. Mix in a financial crisis or two, like the bond market slowly imploding and whatever clusterf**k the rapist unleashes when he’s done with Powell and the Fed, and at the least there will be massive layoffs/furloughs at Boeing, if not something worse.
BTW, military aircraft, some not made by Boeing, also may use certain offshore components. not as many, but I figure systems from Europe and chips from Taiwan go in them. Thus the government would end up paying some of the tariffs the government imposed. Win win!
Out of curiosity, I did “my own research”. We’ve had five prez impeachments, Johnson long before polling. I looked at Gallup Approval Rating when investigations began.
Nixon, 10/30/1973, 27%, resignation one step ahead of the sheriff
Clinton, 10/8/1998, 66%, acquitted
Trump, 9/24/2019, 38%, acquitted
Trump, 1/25/2021, 34%, acquitted
Trump, now, 44%
Even the Supremes, despite their denials, are influenced by public opinion. N = 4 does not allow firm conclusions, but if Trump’s popularity drops below maybe 35% I think people will start talking seriously about impeachment. He certainly seems able to drop below 35. As for “high crimes and misdemeanors”, pick any dozen.
@CSK: It’s worth remembering how some Protestant evangelicals have a deep disdain for the Roman Catholic Church (a.k.a. “The Whore of Babylon”).
@Scott:
Noem’s spokesperson says that the three grand was for “Easter treats” for her family.
Faberge eggs, perhaps. Yeah, yeah, I know they go for millions, but come on. Three grand for chocolate bunnies and Peeps?
@Kingdaddy:
Oh, indeed. The pope’s a pagan. Amusing, given that the first Christians were…Catholics.
@Bobert: That would have made a formidable barrier in Korea because my visas were only one year long. I had to renew my visa every year and every change of job.
My school had about 50 or 60 foreign teachers who would all have to go to Fukuoka or Osaka on one set of pretty specific calendar dates–spring or fall–for visa service. Multiply that by hundreds of colleges (and even more hundreds of K-12 schools). Logistical nightmare.
Once upon a time I was part of a group that owned some standardbred racehorses. Some of the people involved were very heavy gamblers. Those people were the only people I have ever known who regularly carried thousands of dollars in cash. People who are very wealthy rarely carry large amounts of cash.
@CSK:
I thought the first Christians were Jewish 😉
@Kathy:
Yeah, but they converted. 😀
@CSK:
I prefer to think they strayed, and one day all those billions will come to their senses and rejoin the Kehilah 😀
I’m half astounded I even remembered that word. I wonder how that reflects on my image as a hard core atheist.
@CSK:
Well, that’s certainly a Very Christian™ viewpoint on her part, isn’t it?
Wait, is she actually claiming to recognize the actions of the God she claims to worship? Somehow Luddite’s not buying it.
But what a mean, nasty, unpleasant creature she is.
@Kathy: Sadly, massive furloughs and layoffs are a feature of the Boeing business model. After the cancellation of the SST project, Boeing paid off so many workers is Seattle that somebody bought billboard ads all over the city reading
Fortunately, Seattle recovered. How many Boeing employees didn’t remains unexplored.
@CSK: $3K in cash, along with her passport. Odd, IMHO.
@Lucysfootball:
Obviously a different era, but I knew many people (besides my gambling crowd) who dealt in large quantities of cash. Usually also discreetly armed. That was the way the big boys in recreational pharma played.
While a catchy tune, “Smuggler’s Blues” was also kinda accurate, IIRC.
ETA maybe she was buying “special” Easter “candy?”
@Kingdaddy: Only some? I can hardly think of any who don’t think of it negatively. I had a friend, long departed, who used to tell people that he grew up Catholic but found Jesus and became a Christian.
@Kathy:
Oddly, for one of my generation, anyway, I wasn’t raised in any religion, so all this means exactly nothing to me. If I were forced to pick a faith, I’d probably choose Judaism.
@Jen:
And her medicines, badges, credit cards, etc. All her personal papers.
@Flat Earth Luddite: Or eggs to color? That’s pretty pricey these days.
@Jen:
Probably needs the passport for those midnight flights to El Salvador?
Does Kristi know about Debit Cards?
Also, this afternoon while running errands and listening to Public Radio, I heard that the Trump Administration sent threatening letters to prominent medical journals, such as JAMA, accusing them of bias, etc.
@CSK:
Jews for Jesus?
@al Ameda: Yep. Perennial dingdong Ed Martin set a letter to a medical journal, asking what practices they will be instituting to ensure alternative opinions.
Somehow, I think he’s not familiar with the finer points of peer review.
@dazedandconfused:
I think it’s far too late for me to acquire any sort of religion. You need a childhood grounding in one faith or another. I’m irreligious. I can’t even work up the ambition to be a card-carrying atheist.
@dazedandconfused:
Jews for Jesus was created and funded as a proselytizing enterprise by the Southern Baptist Convention.
My anecdotal observation is that most real Jews regard them as ex-Jewish Christian converts.
@Scott: @wr: I’ve been an amateur naturalist my whole life and have spent years feeding and observing birds. The way things are progressing I’m thinking this may be the last winter feeding at a backyard feeder will be a responsible and safe pass time. By next season who knows what species and their predators will be the most infected.
@just nutha: I remember that billboard. I remember that William Proxmire, one of the primary killers of the SST, was widely disliked in the state.
@gVOR10: Your numbers fit with one of my rules of thumb about US politics: If 70% of the people want something to happen, it happens. That’s a tough threshold to reach sometimes, but it seems to be a good guide.
Both sides of the ‘Jesus is a retelling of x myth’ need to engage sources with more skepticism.
Much of the time, one side criticizes the other for a particular approach while justifying their belief via the same method.
I admit that one side has far more influence on world affairs than the other, so I get why their detractors are focused on criticism. But in my experience, faith, as defined by Paul, has a way of rendering sound method and evidence moot.
And yeah, the same thing happens in the world of political ideologies as well. Too many people want to mark a red letter hour or day or year or era as the pinnacle of human thought and moral framework.
The appeal to ancient wisdom is powerful.
@CSK: I’m inclined towards viewing it as philosophy myself, yet age is not an absolute barrier. I’ve seen older people embrace religion quite deeply. The ecstasy of absolute belief is a hellofa drug.
@just nutha:
They had also bet the company on developing the 747. Fortunately that worked out rather well.
Trivia: the 747 was conceived as a cargo aircraft, ergo the upper deck to allow for a nose door for oversize cargo. Use for passengers, everyone figured, would be transitory, as supersonic jets like the Concorde and the SST, and whatever latter models followed, would take over most passenger flights, certainly all long haul flights.
While this sounds naive, it was the natural progression: slow prop planes to faster jets to even faster supersonic jets, thence presumably to hypersonic jets or maybe rockets.
I sometimes wonder what killed supersonic travel more: the oil shocks, or the prohibition of overland supersonic flight?
@dazedandconfused:
Yes, but I think all those people had some religious belief/practice inculcated in them during childhood, no matter how sporadic or half-hearted. I didn’t. No one in my family ever attended church, even on Christmas or Easter. I never got the grounding.
F yeah!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LasrD6SZkZk
@Mr. Prosser: that is terrifying
@Jen: “I am wondering if this talk show host is familiar with something called the Constitution? Specifically, Article III?”
You probably don’t have to be well read, clever, and snarky to be a conservative talk show host, but it probably helps. 🙂
Assuming your question(s) is not rhetorical, I’m sure Jesse Kelly knew about Article III when he posted on X. Not that it would matter, he and others like him monetize supporting President Trump by whatever means necessary, and getting clicks. If Trump and the White House were, are, and will be deliberating violating several other portions of the Constitution, there’s no intellectual basis for someone like that to carve out a safe space for the judiciary. To the contrary, in a disruption-based game of “can you top this?” unilaterally violating even more norms (and Constitutional provisions) is de riguere.