Monday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Monday, March 10, 2025
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55 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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BlueSky.
Cue Pink Floyd……is there anybody out there?
Happy Monday!
@Jax:
Science has proved that’s an absolute impossibility.
Light sutff:
Back on January 21st, I was still trying to figure out the stuff in the new old car. I got distracted for a minute in stop and go traffic, and barely bumped the car in front at very low speed (under 5 kph). The driver got out and we decided calling the insurance adjustor in the middle of bad traffic would not be a good idea. OS I gave him my cel number. He messaged me the next day, but said nothing.
After weeks had passed, I thought he’d decided it was nothing. Then last week he messages me and wants me to call my insurance company. Long bureaucratic story short, we all met Sunday afternoon nearby, which led me to start cooking way too late (I had to go to the office in the morning).
To top it off, the new old car still had DST programmed in. I had to figure out how to disable that.
I know. I know. Third World Problems(TM)
So Republican Representative Collins wants to deport Rev. Budde, an American citizen who has committed no crime. This is the Republican Party in the United States in 2025.
And this is before the threatened Medicaid cuts.
With crumbling public health infrastructure, rural Texas scrambles to respond to measles
I want to give up so bad right now.
IMO a big problem right now is people don’t know what efficiency even means.
It starts in thermodynamics, where efficiency means how much of the energy put into a machine translates to work. this means all machines are efficient, only some more than others. A machine that turns 1% of energy into work is low efficiency, while one that gets 90% is high efficiency.
You can see this more clearly with fuel efficiency: how much fuel does it take to travel a given distance, or how far can you go per unit of fuel.
So what would this mean in government?
Since the purpose of government is, in large part, to provide services, there are several ways to measure this. one would be how much does it cost to disburse cash benefits. An high efficiency agency would have a lower cost. another is how many people can be adequately served per money spent, as in healthcare for example. A high efficiency setup gets more people treated for less money.
It does NOT mean spending as little as possible, nor reducing the workforce, nor eliminating services, not gutting agencies, nor any of the things the nazi in chief has been doing.
And he knows it.
I saw I’m Still Here this weekend. Definitely recommended.
@Beth:
Don’t. That’s an order, woman.
@Paul L.:
[Look, I get the anger, but please, no threats. Thx. -SLT]
@Beth: please take a beat and know there are ups and downs and now is down but , like Dorothy Parker said, you might as well live.
You have gone through way too much to let the bastards win. And that makes you formidable because you know you can survive. You are needed in the fight.
@Beth: keep going. What these glibertarian bastards want us to do is give up to their bullying. They want us to walk into the camps by ourselves with no fighting.
According to a blog post by his wife Marian, Kevin Drum died on Friday, March 7. I will miss his analyses, charts and graphs. I feel the loss deeply.
@Mr. Prosser:
I’m very sorry to learn this.
@Beth: Hang in there!
@Mr. Prosser: That is sad news.
BTW: I have reached my limit with Paul L. He provided nothing of use and creates nothing but derailed threads and upset regular readers.
Adios, Paul L.
@Steven L. Taylor: Thank you. I rarely have strong reactions to internet people, but man, he always gave me the creeps. Like some kind of sludge/slime dripping down a wall creepy.
@Beth:
We may have a flat in King’s Cross next to the canal. We had a lot of requests: AC, pets accepted, outdoor space, so even though we’d rather be in Hampstead, we’re going to try and grab it. 5 minutes to St. Pancras (and on to Paris), 5 minutes from King’s Cross (and all things North) is pretty good. 6400 GBP which ain’t great, especially with the dollar weakening. But refugees can’t be too picky.
@Steven L. Taylor: I’m not objecting to banning Paul L.
I do note that I am not certain he even understood why people took his posts badly. I did not experience him as a well person.
I wonder what the reason will be for me.
My latest small shout against the tide: Went to a letter writing event sponsored by the Baltimore chapter of Indivisible but run by the local rep from VoteForward. They provide a letter template and snail mail addresses to potential voters in critical elections. The templates leave space for a handwritten, personal but non-partisan comment, and then you address the letters by hand. It’s a small organization and the guy running it was actually the data analyst for the group. He said that this is the sweet spot between emails and texts (not effective and maybe even harmful) and door to door campaigning, but extremely labor intensive. Our letters were targeted towards the upcoming Wisconsin Supreme Court election.
On the Indivisible side, the woman who formed the Baltimore chapter did so 3 days after the election and started with 14 people the first month, 80 people the next, and is now at over 1200.
One thing I found really interesting was that when I came to the event in the local library and sat at one of the tables, the two older (you know, “older”, my age and north) women who joined me were kind a pain. The one, who was slightly deaf and I think had ADHD, was constantly asking me questions and making “under the breath” comments while I was trying to follow the speaker. The other was angry from the start and had what she thought was a great idea and was distressed to find that this session was targeted on letter writing, which she considered a waste of time. I’m not actually complaining, and did try to engage with them and help them out with what little I knew. What I found interesting was that these two elderly women were obviously not used to organized actions (neither am I FWIW, but hey, I can listen) which I suspect means they were motivated for the first time. A little bit of hope there, anyway.
Separately, my wife joined a Women’s protest march. Not really my thing as I feel that such things are more about solidarity (and I’m a grump), but it’s vitally important for a lot of people to know they aren’t alone out there.
Midway through, a couple came up and talked about what they were doing, which was hanging banners over one of the main roadways in B’more during rush hour twice a week. Afterward I mentioned to them about last weeks protest at Tesla and they said they believed it was now an every Saturday event.
Steven, I’ve been enjoying your Ancient Geeks podcast. Well worth a listen for anyone with a geeky lean.
It is with great sadness that I pass on the news that Kevin Drum didn’t make it this time through.
@Beth: Remember, the best revenge is a good life. Don’t give up while you’re ahead. Be disappointed if you feel you have to but focus on the objective: your kids and partner joining you safe. Other times, places, and situations didn’t offer that outcome. “Don’t stop thinking about tomorrow. It’ll be here, better than before.”
@Fortune:
Oh, ffs dude. Your persecution complex is showing. I get it—it’s an engrained part of the American Right at this point.
But Paul L. is a longtime commenter who rarely posts on topic and whose missives have a purpose only known to him.
The fact that he has been around for this long demonstrates that our hosts give guests a very long rope before a ban.
Have you ever looked at Paul’s blog? He had a recent post titled, “Trolling OTB.” That should give you pause before claiming you are at the same risk.
Well, unless you are admitting that you are also here to troll. In which case, well, there is plenty of reason for a ban.
Also note, several of us—me, Bernius, others—have defended Paul at times. It isn’t all hostility, as you seem to think. Maybe you should re-evaluate what you think about this community.
@Fortune:..I wonder what the reason will be for me.
When I gave up the swill after a 35 year run of drunken debauchery, people who knew me, usually because we hung out at the same piss holes together, would ask “Why did you stop drinking?”
My reply was always: “I don’t need a reason. I quit because it was a good idea at the time.”
I do not moderate an internet site however I would suggest that the hosts at OTB do not need any reason to block a commenter. As far as I can tell it’s always been a good idea to block the trolls who have been banished from this site.
Elon Musk has called Sen. Mark Kelly, a combat veteran who flew 39 missions and astronaut, a “traitor.” Why? Because he expressed his ongoing support for Ukraine.
@Fortune: You’re frustrating, but not creepy. Like, that dude had serious rapist/mentally unstable vibes.
@Jay L Gischer:
I am of the personal belief that this individual was dealing with long-term mental and emotional illness. Ironically I guess, he expressed a lot of doubt that those things existed. FWIW, I wish him the best and hope he can find something that will help him better enjoy life in the long term.
@Kurtz:
I tried my best. Given his theoretical interested in police and prosecutorial reform I had tried to find some common ground. Unfortunately, lots of interactions led me to believe that his thinking was way to black and white (when it came to everyone but himself) and motivated (to the degree that having grounded conversations was impossible) to make it worth while engaging.
@MarkedMan: Sad to see confirmation of what we feared. I will greatly miss Kevin Drum’s calm voice of reason in the times ahead. Paul Campos at LGM has a tribute and a last cat pic.
@Kurtz:
@Mister Bluster:
Way too many trolls are daring the site owners to ban them. So that’s the all purpose reason for most of them.
@Jen:
Kelly’s response: “Elon, if you don’t understand that defending freedom is a basic tenet of what makes America great and keeps us safe, maybe you should leave it to those of us who do.”
@Kurtz:
You beat me to writing that.
I also think this gets to a point about over-indexing on the value of heterodox thinking–especially over time. Anyone who engaged with the banned individual over time would see all of the issues with his “heterodox” thinking–most pronounced is how he never applied it to his own behavior and reasoning process. Deciding that the other side can never be right (or excusing all the cases when your side violates your black and white rules in the name of “bothsiderism”) is anything but heterodox thinking–it’s the worst form of partisanship.
@MarkedMan:
Wow, Kevin was one of the first people to give me a link when I was blogging in the early 2000’s. I gave that up a while ago, but I keep reading his page up until his last post.
RIP Kevin Drum
@gVOR10: Kevin Drum was the most anti-Libertarian person I have ever had the pleasure of engaging with. Drum was heavily into reality and pursued data to see what it showed him about the world. He thought long and hard before he stated anything with any amount of certainty, and even then was always open to being challenged. He was a hard nosed, fact based, data driven guy who used those things to promote an ethical and humanitarian driven view of the world.
Like I said, the ultimate anti-Libertarian*
*For an example of the ultimate Libertarian, see Elon Musk
Post by Secretary of State Marco Rubio
I’m trying to devise a fictional government for some stories I’m working on. The background matters here, since it involves the descendants of humans who were taken from Earth 7,000-10,000 years ago, so they don’t carry all the Greco-Roman and earlier baggage (they have a different set).
Thus far I see a mix of parliamentary and presidential systems. Whichever party or coalition gains a majority of seats, elects a chief of the executive (aka the Chief). The Chief can be anyone, be they a member of parliament or not. I’m sorting out how this affects voter choices, how local issues become, etc. I figure elections every four years or so, with the Chief’s term being as long.
Then there’s the executive succession. The Chief appoints a cabinet, of course, which gets approved by the parliament and maybe an upper chamber (also elected). Except for one official, whom I call First Minister. This official is a second in command, who gets the same info and briefing the Chief does, and can take over if the Chief dies or resigns, but not if the Chief is removed from office*. The nominal role of the First Minister is to aid the Chief in carrying out their policies by various means, like negotiating and dealing with parliamentarians, riding herd on the cabinet, overseeing other executive branch employees, etc.
This is all for background. The bad guys in these stories have it easier, there being an absolute monarch who doesn’t bother with legislators.
*Appointing an unfit First minister can be grounds for removal. If removal occurs, the parliament appoints an interim Chief on removal, and then elects a new one within a month to finish the term.
Trump put this man on The Board overseeing the US Naval Academy:
Waltine Torre Nauta Jr.[1] (born 1982 or 1983[2]) is an American valet and body man to U.S. president Donald Trump. He was a defendant in a criminal case over violations of the Espionage Act and related offenses. While a petty officer in the U.S. Navy, he was Trump’s valet at the White House. After Trump’s term ended, Nauta continued to work for him at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club and residence.
So totally unqualified and a criminal. Remember, Trump only hires the best.
@Matt Bernius: I passed on bringing that up three times this morning. I decided to keep to my promise to not interact because he and I “live” in two different worlds. The gulf between cannot be fathomed.
@JKB: yeah, and a lot of that money was for programs where farmers paid out and were supposed to be reimbursed later. Which the government is now reneging on.
Do you expect anyone will sign up for any such programs in the future? Trust is gained in drops and lost by buckets.
@Michael Reynolds:
At least King’s Cross is supposed to be a reasonable area in these days of redevelopment and “gentrification”.
Back in the early 80’s it was very dodgy indeed.
@Grumpy realist: this lost of trust is something I have been especially concerned with, not just in government but across society. I don’t see how a society can exist without trust. And I suspect that destroying that trust is a goal of at least some key members of the administration. It is hard for me to conclude that destruction of the United States as it has existed is not a goal. I realize this sounds hyperbolic, but every data point seems to push the Bayesian probability higher
Meanwhile, it looks like the US stock markets have decided to get in some practice for the next Olympic diving contests.
New Yorker interview of Stephen Kotkin:
Perhaps Trump’s goal was a decade of inflicting 7th grade level “IM NOT A LOSER UR A LOOSER” onto everyone else, like a school shooter filled with rage but lacking the guts to pull the trigger.
@Beth: may I recommend keeping on just to spite whoever gave this a thumbs up?
You’re good people. I’m sorry things hurt.
Don’t you want to get arrested for defecating on Donald Trump’s grave? He’s pretty old, so it isn’t a huge commitment. Less than a decade, certainly.
If that’s too long, may I recommend Mitch McConnell? You can reassess afterwards.
It’s not your style, but there’s a handy song that you can hum to yourself when things get bad:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=186FmQ4QZeY
And I think you have a kid or several kids. You might want to see them grow up.
I make light, but I’ve been severely depressed in the past, so I know it’s hard. I wish I knew what changed — I half suspect it was a Honda Accord that was venting exhaust into the passenger compartment, and that it killed off the right brain cells, but that doesn’t seem like a good idea to try to replicate, and it could have been something else. I’m not going to say “don’t give up,” or anything, but I hope you find things worth continuing for. Also, may I recommend an electric car?
A friend of my brothers’ got cancer a long time ago, and was told he had a 20% chance of surviving. He got through it, and then a few months after being declared “probably cancer free, but we need to monitor this” he jumped off a bridge to his death.
He was also a terrible human being — he used to hurt small animals for fun, and my brothers are kind of shitheads for continuing to deal with him — so there’s no great loss. So, that might not be a great example, but his value as a human being isn’t why I brought him up.
There’s a moment when you finish the big thing you needed to do for yourself (and your family, in your case), and then you realize that you’re still there will all your problems, and there are all the other problems. And that really sucks. It just does. That big slump is temporary. I’d like you to push through that slump, even if it’s with teeth bared and you hate every minute of it. If you can’t, you can’t. But I’d like you to.
You’re good people. You probably make the world a better place for being in it, at least on net.
To quote the guidance counselor from Heathers: “Whether or not to kill yourself is one of the most important decisions a teenager can make.”
@JohnSF: I only know Kings Cross from a Pet Shop Boys song, and I have nothing but sound associations for it.
@Gustopher: I should point out that I discovered the Honda Accord was venting exhaust into the passenger compartment when I took it in for the state mandated emissions inspection and they discovered it had none. There was a hole in the exhaust line from the engine and some ended up in the passenger compartment.
This also might explain why I would get sleepy during a long drive and needed to stop, get out, walk a bit, get a coffee and fresh air.
@Jay L Gischer: I agree. We tried. Matt, in particular, tried.
@Michael Reynolds:
@JohnSF:
Right now I’m in Hackney as a starting point. We make lot of money, but not 6500 for rent money. We’re budgeting 3500 max for rent and realistically need to be below that. I have a barely functioning phone, a new debit card in the wind, and an overwhelming sadness.
I barely know where to start with all of this and unfortunately for me the only way I can solve problems like these are to constantly bash my face against them until something gives. I’ve been to EE to try and get a phone plan 4 times now. I’m only one step closer.
I have no idea where to start with any of this. I’m getting fantastic emotional and social support here and elsewhere, but I have zero practical support. The process is basically see a problem, ask some questions, bash face, fail, get back up, repeat, and hope that I learn something along the way. It’s just me and my ADHD and we don’t know what the fuck we’re doing. We just know we’re doing it wrong and 3 people and a cat are counting on us.
I got lost in Kings Cross Station (and Paddington and several others) yesterday as I dealt with what I’m assuming is a migraine caused by dehydration and possibly an artificial sweetener. Nothing says excitement like being confused, lost, and dizzy in a foreign country that’s now your home.
When I finally got to where I was going the brother of a friend drove me around the Kensington area to make the pitch to move there. He’s amazing and I’m grateful for him and his tour, but it was night and day from where I’ve been looking (roughly Hackney) and I can’t afford it. I probably can’t afford to think about it because it just drives home what we are losing by this.
And like, I’m not knocking you for this (I’ll knock you for your pronoun bullshit, but not this), but you have unbelievable resources. I have two feet and a stupidly relentless drive to solve all problems with my face. I’m also doing this alone and I don’t do well alone. At. All. That’s probably part of why I lashed out this morning. It’s going to be a minimum of two weeks until someone, my gay guardian angel, gets here to help me.
Can’t quit. Can’t kill myself. Can’t fail.
You might want to consider somewhere cheaper to live than central London.
It’s cool, and all that, but maybe check out Brighton?
Or other places like Luton or Reading, or the south coast?
Though, have to say, I don’t know what relative renting is in other places in the south east these days, or what locales you might like.
I know at least one nephew and several acquaintances moved out of London because property and rent there is quite stupendously expensive.
Maybe have a chat with an estate agent?
@Kathy: I assume you mean 7000 years before a point in the future, as we don’t have a whole lot of information about political systems 7000-10000 years before now, but parliaments were not common.
An important thing to remember about Roman democracy is that there were land-owning citizens, non-citizens and slaves. But the citizens were not so removed from the non-citizens (or the slaves) that they could just vote and rule with no regard to the others.
And slaves were closer to later European serfs than US based chattel slavery. There’s a huge gulf there, but chattel slavery is so much worse than earlier forms that serfdom is a better starting point. This is why arguments about how the Irish were enslaved are just bullshit when someone tries to apply it to justify US slavery.
Columbus was also amazingly bad with slavery, so there were precedents. But Columbus was also jailed for his treatment of the natives.
@JohnSF:
We don’t have much of a choice. Until I get my UK passport my partner will have to go into the office so we have to be near the office.
Once I get that then the only real issue is we are both intensely urban folk. The thought of living in the suburbs or even outer ring of London is just a no go. I was in Epping on Sunday and then came back in through the Piccadilly line from its end and just no.
As for the Estate Agents, I’ve talked to several. Not super helpful. While the giblertarians and PE chuds are working to kill it, I’m Chicago you could get a tenant/buyers agent to help you. That doesn’t seem to be a thing here.
@Gustopher:
I mean around 5,000 to 8,000 BCE some humans were taken off Earth and left to their own devices on a terraformed planet far away. The fictional government forms millennia later*.
Ancient democracies were far different than modern ones. I’m painfully aware of that 😉
*The idea was to have a human society that developed differently. Why aliens would transport humans off Earth and set them up in a nice world, is something I’m still trying to work out.
@JohnSF:
The message that I took from Trump’s remarks is that he will be stubborn and not let bad economic numbers deter him from his chosen course, the markets reacted to that message.
Also, there is the effect on the arms industry if foreign countries become deterred from purchasing American.
(Like telling Sweden it can not provide Ukraine with Gripen aircraft because General Electric is the jet engine manufacturer. Becoming definitively untrustworthy comes with a cost).