More on Biden’s Options
More to consider.
I certainly understand the vigorous, ongoing debate about what Biden ought to do post-debate. My position continues to be that he will stay in. How anyone convinces a person who occupies the presidency that they have to step aside because of one debate performance is beyond me as a practical matter. I also continue to believe that the downside risk of a change outweighs the downside risk of sticking with Biden. I can accept that views vary on this, but I am also quite certain that barring a catastrophic event, Biden will be the candidate.
Still, to be clear, there are two distinct issues. The first is what would even result in him stepping down. The second is then who (and how) he would be replaced.
As a side note, the only way to have avoided being in this situation was if Biden had not been the nominee in 2020 or if he had lost the race. Human beings with the ego needed to run for and serve as POTUS don’t turn down their shot at a second term. As has been noted before, intra-party fights when the incumbent is eligible for re-election carry its own risk.
To be clear, I would prefer a younger candidate. Indeed, I have argued for age limits before. As I wrote at the time:
If it is known that a given system will, from time to time, have to address difficult circumstances it is better to work out the process in the absence of personal feelings or the emotions of the moment. It is the same basic reason why one should make plans for one’s own old age and potential infirmities, rather than either a) hoping you will be the one who doesn’t have such problems or b) assuming that it will work out at the moment (which is rarely done without some planning).
This sounds awfully familiar to me.
But I digress.
The main point of this post was to point to a few others who have thoughts on the subject.
First, I highly recommend Dan Drezner’s piece, The Choice is Biden or Harris.
His basic thesis:
The question, for those of us who do not want to see a second Trump term, is: “what now?” And this is where there some cold water is called for, because there are really only two viable choices:
- Stick with Joe Biden; or
- Have Biden resign the presidency sometime this summer, Kamala Harris sworn in as President, and have Harris be the Democratic Party nominee.
That’s it, those are your options. Everything else is nonsense.2 Let me explain.
I would recommend you all read his explanation, but I think he is 100% correct. Treating the sitting vice president like just one option, especially the first woman and person of color to occupy that position, is to court a disastrous fight within the party and provide ample fodder for Trump and the press.
I will note the following (which Drezner also notes) from a multi-pundit conversation at the NYT from Jemelle Bouie (that I think was also noted here at OTB in recent comments):
Bouie: In addition, there is a real risk that the process of choosing a new nominee could tear open the visible seams in the Democratic Party. I have noticed that only a handful of calls for Biden to leave are followed by “and Vice President Harris should take his place.” More often, there is a call for a contested convention. But why, exactly, should Harris step aside? Why should Harris not be considered the presumptive nominee on account of her service as vice president and her presence on the 2020 ticket? And should Harris be muscled out, how does this affect a new nominee’s relationship with key parts of the Democratic base, specifically those Black voters for whom Harris’s presence on the ticket was an affirmation of Biden’s political commitment to their communities?
(More at the link).
Everyone calling for a new candidate is ignoring the very basic fact that opening up a competition for the nomination is an invitation to the party’s various factions to turn on one another. The whole point of a nominee is unification of party factions. That is an unpredictable and potentially dangerous option at any juncture in this process, especially right now when voters are starting to pay attention.
Let me add this post-debate poll from Data for Progress (h/t: Paul Campos at LGM).
I am making no definitive claims from this poll, but it suggests that there is no obvious savior.
Also, via Reuters: Biden hits fundraising trail in show of strength after dismal debate performance.
This is akin, but not identical, to what happens to Trump after legal troubles–the threat just translates into the team circling the wagons even in the midst of doubt and concern. All of this appears to me to be an ongoing confirmation of what I keep saying about both the way American parties behave, but also how American voters behave in the context of only two viable teams.
Let me conclude to reiterate what I said in the comments of my previous post: all this anxiety is not really about fears about an old President Biden. No, the anxiety is about a second Trump term. That is the real source of the panic. And hence, the editorial board of the Philadelphia Inquirer‘s counter to the NYT‘s: To serve his country, Donald Trump should leave the race.
Indeed.
I saw someone elsewhere introduce that Philly Inquirer piece as tongue in cheek. I don’t know why. Looks to me serious as death.
FYI: a comment from Chris made it to my inbox, but seems to have disappeared. If this was the result of some kind of error, please let me know. The only place it seems to exist is in the automatic emails I receive, but nowhere else.
100% agree with this and also Drezner’s point that the only way to do it would be to have Biden fully resign and have Harris take office (a la Nixon and Ford).
I think the risks associated with that are different, but still as high as Biden staying in.
Also, a there is a notable typo in the piece: Jamille Bouie’s name is misspelled as “Louie.”
I had the notion in 2020 that Biden would announce he would decline to seek reelection, possibly sometime after the 2022 midterms.
Evidently I was wrong.
As for Wannabehitler, to serve his country he should do penance barefoot over broken glass for the next ten years, or until the end of his natural lifespan.
I don’t expect even a cursory, insincere approximation of an apology.
Biden could anoint a successor. Kamala remains a problem, unless she’s willing to fall on the same sword as Biden. But if – huge if – Kamala Harris is ready to walk away, Biden proposes Whitmer. Whitmer picks a Black or Hispanic male as veep. The narrative does a complete 180. Biden is seen as a self-sacrificing patriot, media attention turns 100% toward Whitmer, Trump has to go even crazier to get any air time. And now it’s our young, exciting woman vs. their old, tired POS.
ETA: What I don’t know is how Black voters would react to sidelining Kamala.
Lady MacBethJill Biden yesterday–Lady MacBethJill Biden is blind to the disaster that is about to hit this country and the world.One more piece of data for the pot — historically there have been two Democratic presidents who decided to step out of the race in the spring before the elections, Truman and LBJ. Before we all demand that Biden follow their lead, we might want to ask presidents Stevenson and Humphrey how it worked out for them.
@Michael Reynolds: Michael,
Biden can resign and let Harris run
or
Do what has been suggested here and by others
Otherwise defeat in November is inevitable and a dictatorship beginning on January 20, 2025.
@wr: @wr:
And the reverse side of arguments like this, and I’ve used them in the past and been told they are ancient history and that the political climate is different from then, is that the only time an ex-President was on the ballot in November was Grover Cleveland in 1892. He won.
@wr:
Nixon 43.4% (popular vote) HHH 42.7%, the rest went to Wallace. I have long believed that Humphrey lost the popular vote in part at least because of the convention. How that would have worked out in terms of electoral votes, I don’t know. Nixon took 301. Just glancing at the map is a head-spinner – Dems took Texas, GOP took Vermont.
@Michael Reynolds: Biden as LBJ. Trump as Nixon. Harris as Humphrey. RFK Jr. as Wallace.
A contested Democratic convention and floor fight + Gaza protesters clashing with cops out. Throw in what happened to RFK Sr. in 1968 and this whole thing is giving big Twilight Zone energy.
@Michael Reynolds:
So, everybody is just going to continue living in fantasyland until it is genuinely impossible?
Here’s a poll showing Trump beating Whitmer and just about every other possible replacement that’s been floated for Biden.
https://www.newsweek.com/gretchen-whither-chances-beating-trump-poll-1919211
And that’s BEFORE Trump and right wing media get a chance to unload on that potential replacement. It’s certainly possible a replacement candidate could change the course of the campaign but it is at best a coin flip as to which direction.
Maybe it is time to stop with the childish performative disdain for Trump and focus a little bit on how the people you trust in the media and politics lied to you for years about Joe Biden’s mental and physical condition.
@Michael Reynolds:
Vermont used to be Republican territory. It went for Alf Landon in 1936 when the only other state that did was Maine.
I have been, and continue to be, in the camp that says this coming election is Democratic administration versus Republican administration. The Dems have nominated for POTUS an incumbent on the heels of a term that has been remarkably successful by most metrics (who is also old), while the GOP have nominated an impeached former president who had a term of chaos and mixed results by the most generous of metrics (who is also seemingly mad). This fact alone should resonate to each party’s entire establishment and makes any one individual irrelevant, including (or maybe especially) the individual at the top of the ticket. Trump’s never been the real problem for me. It’s the Trumpism enablers and GOP cowards who scare me.
So, I’m fine with Biden staying in. I wasn’t voting for him as much as the rest of his administration anyway.
That said, I see the resignation scenario carrying much more opportunity than risk.
Imagine the press coverage alone. For every inevitable negative story about Harris’ readiness or likability or suitability, there will 2 stories about the historic nature of the VP being thrust into service or the glass ceiling breaking or the Democrats embracing the next generation while the GOP tries to pull us back to the Civil War era. The Democratic National Convention goes from a snooze-fest to must see TV about the new future of the country.
Finally, Trump would absolutely lose his sh!t running against Harris. There’s just no way the “reasonable” version of Trump would show more obviously than his misogyny and racism.
@Steven L. Taylor: First, I saw the phantom comment below mine. I was considering a reply to it, but it was gone when I came back. The header still showed 2 comments.
Unrelated, the chart shows eight possible replacements, all slightly below Biden and basically tied with each other. Pritzker? Good guy, could partially self-fund, but how many of you knew who he is?
The chart shows two things. One, generic Dem polls 3 points behind Trump. Two, Ds have a deep bench — but no standout. Were there a clear replacement, maybe not Johnny or Joanie Unbeatable, but generally popular and widely supported within the Party, maybe the major donors could see a clear decision that would unite the Party. But they don’t.
The GOP donors are far more united. They have the web of “think” tanks, activist organizations, foundations, etc. with interlocking boards. They’ve wanted on and off to get rid of Trump for eight years and haven’t been able to do anything about it. What Will Rogers said, “I’m not a member of any organized party, I’m a Democrat.”
@TheRyGuy:
Irrelevant. Polling make-believe vs. actual is nothing but a count of partisans. The fight is for the gray 7%.
@mattbernius: Thanks for noting that!
@TheRyGuy:
Sorry, champ: this is never going to happen, no matter what you do or say.
Convicted Felon Trump was a failed president who left the country in shambles. He is unlikeable, a bad guy, and a terrible role model for our kids. Among his many vile and disqualifying acts: he’s a rapist who mocked a disabled reporter, tweeted a White Power video on 28 June 2020, and incited a terror attack on Congress.
The justified and deserved disdain for patholgical lying pig Trump here and with most Americans will never bend to your deplorable, dishonest, troglodyte defenses.
To paraphrase the pithy Mr. Reynolds: Trump is a piece of shit, and so are you who still support him. And we will never stop telling that truth no matter what happens — get over it.
Not “a person” but the persons who have usurped the presidency under Biden. And they not only have only one way to remain in power, i.e., get Biden across the line, but now that Biden’s condition is apparent, they have the real fear of questions about who is actually issuing orders in the name of Biden.
The election may not have been stolen, but the presidency sure seems like it has been.
@Bill Jempty: “Vermont used to be Republican territory”
Hell, California used to be Republican territory.
Remember, Antifa, BLM, etc. owe Harris for their bail money in 2020.
Not sure how Harris a a shoe-in except by fear of unrest in the party. She has no delegates for the convention. Biden has twice as many as needed for the nomination on the first vote, thus avoiding the Super Delegates voting in the 2nd round.
Declare Biden unfit to run, is to raise the question of his competency now. Perhaps Harris is lobbying the Cabinet to invoke the 25th amendment, but then Biden is still conscious and can send the counter letter to Congress, provoking open inquiry into competency.
The civil war in the Democratic party may go hot in the next coming weeks.
I’m pretty sure that at least one of the people in that poll are fictional, and that this just shows that the election is pretty fixed at this point, with only 11% in play.
I’d be real curious to see if the 11% were different with each of these matchups. I’d bet good money on “basically no”
Pritzker is the governor of East Dakota or West Carolina or something, isn’t he? Just completely made up.
(Google, Google) Illinois? Really? I mean, I guess they have a governor, and it might be him. Don’t most Illinois governors go to jail?
@TheRyGuy: This was Trump’s Father’s day message:
“HAPPY FATHER’S DAY TO ALL, INCLUDING THE RADICAL LEFT DEGENERATES THAT ARE RAPIDLY BRINGING THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA INTO THIRD WORLD NATION STATUS WITH THEIR MANY ATTEMPTS AT TRYING TO INFLUENCE OUR SACRED COURT SYSTEM INTO BREAKING TO THEIR VERY SICK AND DANGEROUS WILL.”
“WE NEED STRENGTH AND LOYALTY TO OUR COUNTRY, AND ITS WONDERFUL CONSTITUTION. EVERYTHING WILL BE ON FULL DISPLAY COME NOVEMBER 5TH, 2024 – THE MOST IMPORTANT DAY IN THE HISTORY OF OUR COUNTRY. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!”
Don’t lecture anyone about childish performative disdain for Trump. The POTUS is the president of all Americans, not just those that agree with him. Trump’s tweet makes it clear the contempt he has for anyone who disagrees with him.
This tweet could easily be part of a campaign ad, pointing out the difference between Biden and Trump.
@JKB:
Why are you…? I’m struggling to find the right word to finish that question, but maybe it is finished.
Just… why are you?
@SenyorDave: how did he not include something deeply weird and hateful about gender in his Happy Fathers Day post? That man is slipping. I don’t think he’s capable of running the country.
(The best Father’s Day tweet ever was Rowan Farrow wishing everyone a Happy Brother-in-law Day)
@JKB:
There is no more of a “civil war” amongst the Democrats than there was with the GOP in 2016 (indeed, less so because Biden is the sitting president).
@Steven L. Taylor: ah yes, sorry. The precis of my comment was “I know he won’t stand down. I know they can’t bypass Harris. But it’s looking pretty bad and they should!”
But re-reading your post I know you get that, and whilst I feel that one of the D governors would do better, the polling doesn’t necessarily back that up. So deleted my comment as felt it was just anguished howling into the wind!
@Steven L. Taylor: And the dispute in the Republican party was because there were still some Republicans who could not accept having a morally bankrupt sexual assaulter (who openly bragged about it) as their standard bearer. Some like Cheney and Kinzinger chose to oppose him and found themselves ostracized, and some like Graham and Vance chose to reverse their opposition and sacrifice whatever integrity they might have had. And now in 2024 we have a Republican party that literally has no problem electing a man president who stole classified documents, lied about it, and almost certainly shared them with others.
Somehow, this current discussion reminds me of the discussions over Israel and Hamas, where some portion of the people complain “Why aren’t you telling Hamas to release the hostages? Why are you just saying Israel needs to be better?” But I’m not sure of what to make of that
Short of an actual health crisis, Biden isn’t going to step down/step aside. And no one who seriously thinks he should step aside should also be calling for him to resign today. For some reason, I see very little of that.
The man is old, has a stutter, and apparently had a bad cold. It didn’t look great, but he doesn’t appear to be incredibly infirm, based on subsequent videos. He’s done a good job as President. He isn’t the problem here, and any plan that requires everyone involved to be perfect at all times isn’t at all realistic.
I am waiting to hear how the debate performance will be fit into the dementia/miracle drug conspiracies, though.
He may not have run in 2020 if not for the need to put an end to the then-incumbent’s administration, and thinking he had the best chance to do that. And I think Biden would’ve been a one-term president before stepping off into a late retirement, except for the fact that McConnell withered and chose not to bring himself and nine others to convict, and the rest of the GOP capitulated after Trump made his very very early run announcement.
Now I’m really wondering if Biden looks in the mirror and still considers himself the best chance to win. And I can’t help but to think about events that led to this timeline, such as the loss of Beau Biden in 2015 leading to the incumbent VP choosing not run to be the next President.
If Biden was CEO of a publicly traded company I think the BOD would be thinking we may have a problem on our hands.
I’ve disliked that pompous @ss since the mid-80’s. My disdain for him is genuine, not performative.
Now onto the (laughable) suggesting from Rybak:
Hold two forums [no time frame or locations provided or suggested] for candidates who “meet a threshold” [decided by whom? everyone knows this will be a shitshow, right?] “do” a straw poll and then the delegates pick [LOL. Seriously? OMG].
And then he suggests televising this, so the utter dysfunction will be everywhere.
This is not a serious proposal. In fact, this is *exactly* the sort of blind panicking turning out garbage ideas that I have pointed out over the last few days.
Okay, I’ve started and deleted several comments. I’ll try again, maybe I’ll finish this one.
You’re all intelligent people so you should have no trouble understanding that none of the ideas about replacing Biden are happening. None of it is happening. Even if we all, 100% of Democrats, wanted him replaced, there’s no way to do it. Biden is the nominee. Period.
All this garment wringing and wailing is just turning a one-day news story into a week long news story. Biden was bad at the debate but he improved as the debate went on and he looked better after the debate than during (which, btw completely rules out the “sundowning” theory) and he has looked fine since. He’s had an active schedule dealt with people one on one and he seems fine. Biden’s the nominee.
Should he be the nominee? I don’t know. I’d love it if people who were going to be 85 before their term in office is up would decide not to run. But that ship has sailed and he is the nominee. Face it and move on.
Say what you will, but at least it’s not the same old song as the previous ones. I get that he’s channeling Edith Wilson, but at least it’s a relatively fresh preposterous conspiracy.
Looking at the poll that was posted above, how can anyone fail to note that individuals like Pritzker and Shapiro, and to a lesser extent Whitmer and Newsome, are not well known to a massive number of potential voters poll only 2-3 points less than a man who is familiar to every voter . Given that, I just don’t see how this poll is somehow supportive of the President. This poll was taken before the Thursday disaster. Give these individuals more exposure and I strongly believe that most, if not all, of their poll numbers shoot up. Biden’s physical condition is not going to improve it’s only going to decline. Desperate times do call for desperate measures. The Democratic party that seems to have been in a trance for months needs to wake up and do something. Many, many Americans want to be done with these two elderly men. Give them a younger fresher choice before it’s too late or continue a sleepy stroll towards disaster.
This in some ways reminds me of the British conservatives sclerotic reaction to the great threat facing them in the late 1930’s; do nothing and somehow hope the looming threat will go away.
@Kari Q: I agree with everything you said except that Biden was bad at the debate. He was terrible overall, and went from awful to bad as the evening went on. Obama was bad in his first debate with Romney. And the difference between terrible and bad is very large. Some undecided people could have watched that debate and said I’m not voting for Trump, but that number is smaller than the number of people who watched that debate and said I’m not voting for Biden. There’s four more months so things could change, but that debate was a dagger.
@mcnp: The poll was taken on Friday, June 28, according to the date stamp on the bottom of the graph.
@mcnp:
That is not the way it works. Right now, each of these candidates is basically “generic Democrat” to people who don’t know them. As soon as they become the candidate, every negative thing they have ever done in their life is brought out and focused on. Their “unfavorable opinion” numbers go up and “favorable opinion” numbers go down.
@mcnp:
The Republican Party’s great gubernatorial golden boy savior Ron DeSantis would like a word.
Running a national campaign is several degrees of difficulty harder than running in Florida, in Michigan, in Kentucky, in California, in Pennsylvania etc.
I have no power here, but to my mind the only plausible Democratic standard-bearers at this late stage won’t have a steep learning curve on competing nationally through a presidential general election — known quantities, already fully vetted and raked over the coals. That’s four people: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Hillary Clinton, and Tim Kaine.
Pick your poison. I hear arsenic goes down pretty smooth with fava beans and a nice chianti.
@Kevin: “I am waiting to hear how the debate performance will be fit into the dementia/miracle drug conspiracies, though.”
He’s got so much dementia that even the miracle drugs won’t work anymore!!!!
@SenyorDave: “If Biden was CEO of a publicly traded company I think the BOD would be thinking we may have a problem on our hands.”
Apparently you haven’t been paying attention to the way publicly traded companies treat their CEOs these days. The only problem would be “Should we triple his salary or quadruple it?”
@wr: That’s true for someone like Musk, who is a dirtbag and talks a lot of shit, still has fanboys and stock analysts who will pump Tesla’s stock endlessly.
A performance like Biden’s would cause a real problem for a CEO of a publicly traded company.
@mcnp: “needs to wake up and do something.”
I don’t recognize your screen name, and if you’re a new poster, then welcome aboard! And please don’t take it personally when I say:
I am now officially over all this ludicrous panicking. And I am completely done with calls to “do something.”
You want someone to do something? Great. Then come up with a plan and identify those who can put it into action.
Saying “someone do something” is worse than meaningless. If there is no solution, then all you are doing is claiming moral superiority for identifying a problem that everyone else is already aware of.
@wr:
Major Biden, in the library, with a candlestick?
The Republicans give the example – on Trump’s domination of the primary,rather than setting their hair on, circled wagons – and even with the felony…
The problem of the modern Left Democrats is their excessive reflexion and tendency to egg-headism.
The sole real hope is to avoid an intra-mural fight, do as the Republicans. and above all the Lefty LEft urbanite urbane LEft to understand that they need to focus on what is needed for the Swing States and those very specific demographics, and to focus on knives to stick in Trump that bleed him in those States and the popular fractions in play, not the bloody on-line Lefties taking to themselves.
I tired of that garbage. People said the same thing about Fetterman’s wife. She’s just supporting him, nothing more. Touch grass. Or actually read MacBeth.
What the polls tell me is that this is still a referendum on Trump 47% of the country will vote for him no matter who the Dem nominee is. 47% will vote against him no matter what. The question is who can get the Dems to that 52-53% they need to win the EC.
@SenyorDave: point of order. Tesla is publicly traded under TSLA. You know, the Tesla board and stockholders that just voted in musk’s 5XBillion pay package.
@SenyorDave: Part of the issue is that for these purposes, the D Party is more like a sole proprietorship. No BOD. The owner, Biden, is the only one who can tell Biden to go.
The white liberal consultancy wing of the DNC must accept that they are NOT going to get what they want here. Biden and Harris, I get it– are not “their people”
The fact they think they can leap frog Harris, who has overwhelmingly high approval amongst BLACK WOMEN, the DNCs MOST Commited voting block, show how out of touch the Dem consultancy class actually is. And completely explains why the Dems struggle to recruit talent and run elections against an empty shell of a Party. But hey, it’s all good if the checks keep cashing and you never have to deliver to get paid right?
Now, some of you here would be shocked that Harris is relatively popular in the Black Community. But you shouldn’t , it’s only a handful of Black people in America and most of us are in the South–meaning, very few of you have real opportunities to commingle with the Community. Therefore it’s really hard to understand to understand the pulse how all of this is resonates.
Perhaps framing it this way will help… the scenario of high achieving Black folks reaching positions of power, only to get shafted by an internal white mob (convinced they only were picked for a quota) is not lost on Black folks. Every likely Black voter has seen this happen and is is going to feel some type of way about this happening to Harris. Harris would probably have regular VPOTUS ratings if not weighted down by the subconscious prejudices of White men.
Everyone here should be aware that (many more men than will admit) base a good bit of their evaluation of women on their attractiveness. What’s lesser known is White men BY FAR favor exclusively white women. Of white men open to other ethnicities, Black women are LAST on their list of preferred partners. Any black women getting into the arena to seek power and advancement has to deal with this. If Kamala looked like Whitmer we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
If the RNC can double down on Trump, Dems can certainly double down on a guy that delivers on THE JOB. The Debate is a ridiculous piece of theater and has been for 50+ years. Would anyone here think it smart to fill a management position by having the applicants debate?
I didn’t think so either. Remind people of whatever MATTERS and stop letting the pundit and consultancy class distract you from substance.
@Jim Brown 32:
Indeed. The two things I’ve been seeing in social media from Black people are “Black jobs” posts in response to Trump saying immigrants are coming for Black jobs; and “Don’t think we don’t notice the white people saying Biden should be step down and anyone other than Harris should take his place.” I don’t know which one offends them more, but they are pretty unhappy about both.
If Biden did step down (which he won’t, I stand by that) then Harris is the only choice. Anyone else would deeply offend voters Democrats need.
The Biden campaign issued talking points about debate for, I quote, ‘panicked aunts, MAGA uncles, and podcasters’. This is such an insane misreading of reactions–across the board everyone who watched that debate and planned on voting for Biden is either horrified or they’re a hack. Democrats are not Republicans. They’re literally leaking stuff like Biden only functions between 10 to 4 Eastern Standard Time. This is great, if you run a small town bank in 1958, but really.
Democrats really believe their voters are all online weirdos or brainwashed conservative morons no different than the average Republican. It’s not the case. Even if Biden stays in (and I’m sure he will) the campign has to have a better plan than the type of spin that works on pro-life idiots. They have to some positive message which is not completely insulting. And if they can’t create one, they should really think this one through. They’re losing as is. What are their fucking plans to win? Point out the obvious about Trump, while they ineptly deny the obvious about Biden?
@Kari Q:
They’re saying this because they think she’s doomed to lose. Nobody who wants Whitmer is pulling their anxiety about Kamala Harris and her chances of victory out of their ass. It seems condescending all around to say that black people can’t grasp the idea of realpolitik in this election.
Copying and amending my last comment from the previous thread:
Ezra Klein (Gift link) makes some great points about weak parties and the failure of the Democratic Party to deal with Biden’s deficiencies and unpopularity and do the job a party is supposed to do.
As I’ve said, I don’t think Biden can win and if one believes that Biden can’t win, then the only rational option is switching to another candidate even though that is high risk when taken in isolation. But at this point, it is probably too late for that even if there was a unified view that could overcome the collective action problem – which there isn’t.
So for those who think it’s best to stick with Biden – What is the theory of victory for Biden at this point? This early debate – which is what his campaign wanted – was supposed to show America a competent Biden contrasted with an unhinged Trump. What’s the plan B? Hope is not a strategy.
As Klein says, he could counter his debate performance by having unscripted interviews from outlets that won’t throw him softballs. He could prove the debate performance was really just a cold or a one-off bad night. But he hasn’t done that that so far and there is no indication the campaign wants to try that and that is very telling.
@Modulo Myself mentioned the leaks that Biden is coherent for a few hours a day. How many people here seriously believe that Biden will last 4 years if he’s elected? What’s the response to voters who think Biden’s ability to do the job and do it for a full term is a big deal?
@Andy: Theory? Do you think voters operate by Theory. There is a choice with track records to compare. If you like the way the Federal Govt ran from 2016-2020 Vote Trump, if you prefer the Federal Govt from 2020-2024, then vote Biden.
There really isn’t much to it than that. The ‘theory’ if there is one, is that voters will prefer the Biden Administration even if they feel that individually, he’s too old to operate like previous Presidents.
Democrat voters do already have a non-Biden option even if they’d never vote for Trump. And it’s a Kennedy, to boot. But certainly not someone who would keep the Obama/Biden White House spectres.
@JKB: wormz
@Jim Brown 32:
That was the missing piece of information. I couldn’t find a poll on Black voters’ feelings about Harris. So, if Black voters are into Harris, it’s either Joe or Kamala.
Are we really going to be debating this for for months. I blame Biden, the WH and the operatives. It is obvious that Biden’s cognitive skills have declined- yes he probably can still preside (but in 2 years I’m not so sure) but his operatives should have done a better job. The toothpaste is out and there’s is no way to put it in. Let’s be clear, this was not just a bad debate performance, we all witnessed a man in decline. Please. What’s next? I don’t see why an open convention would not work- that’s how is was done before.
@Andy: The theory is mate that the other guy can be made to bleed on the margins.
And the “Biden can’t win” therefor the Democrats must change horses at this stage is a weak logic- it ignores that a real world result will be the already fractitious fractions of the Democratic party will get into a messy, time wasting distraction, look weak and frankly lock-in the not-yet-locked-in result of Trump win. A panicked result blowing open their coalition internal fighting, losing time, distracting from Trump.
Plus – it is a bloody weak looking goddamn move and showing weakness in front of your enemy is in fact a path to loss – the Trumpian response right now is in fact the best one.
Democrats need to bloody well though understand where to do their attacks on Trump as it seems they are caught up in pitching Uni urban educated Lefty audiences and nada mas.
The panicky Lefty reaction contra the Republicans on Trump are exactly why Trump has good odds. Pants wetting and hand-wringing are not going to win you anything nor are stupid theoreticals. Finding the right places to make bloody Trump bleed in the right electoral geographies.
@Jim Brown 32: and Mr JB – while one might quibble with details at least brings outside of a certain demographic echo chamber and indeed as Republicans doubled down on Trump, that is the choice at this stage – the other choice being showing weakness and worse and without doubt, opening up internal warfare between the fractions mere months before the election which most certainly will not win.
@Kari Q: “If Biden did step down (which he won’t, I stand by that) then Harris is the only choice. Anyone else would deeply offend voters Democrats need.”
And also start from zero. Because apparently only Harris, as Biden’s VP candidate, can access the $212 million the Biden campaign has in its coffers.
meanwhile in my world I see hung parliament for my dear French side as plausible potential outcome option which is better than Sunday night worst-case as likely case outcome.
@Modulo Myself:
Pitching to the egghead wonks and Uni-educated Lefty urban professional class is pointless when your weaknesses are the comparatively overweight-demographic of non-Uni educated labour class demographic in the Swing States – where you will win or lose the election.
Precious “positive message” is eggheadism.
People fear loss and resent loss much more than the value gain – it is a structural cognitive bias. This is a Negatives.
Trump is a Target Rich Environment for negatives. Contraception, abortion, benefitting the ‘greed-flation’ exploiters [economically nonsense but this is politics, not academic analysis]
@Jim Brown 32:
Biden is currently losing. By theory I mean what is your theory for how Biden can win? What do you (or anyone else here) think is a winning strategy? It’s an honest question because at this point I don’t see a path beyond hope or betting on some unforeseeable turn of events.
How long before the President lets the American people see him answering questions in an unscripted environment,m He has not held a press conference in ages, and has, I believe, held fewer press conferences than any previous President. Also, do we now see the reason for him passing on the Super Bowl interview? This was an opportunity to appear before the largest possible audience in what is usually a pretty easy going softball atmosphere. It was a little troubling them, and is certainly much more so now.
@Andy:
Every single poll in July of 2016 had Hillary Clinton up over Trump, most of them where well over the margin of error.
CNN/ORC July 29–31, 2016 52% 43% 9
CBS News July 29–31, 2016 47% 41% 6
NBC News/SurveyMonkey July 25–31, 2016 50% 42% 8
Morning Consult July 29–30, 2016 43% 40% 3
Public Policy Polling July 29–30, 2016 50% 45% 5
@Andy:
Doesn’t really matter, as none of us here are Biden campaign strategists or advisors.
There are others with actual power within the Democratic Party who have the Biden camp’s ear. Conversely, most here will end up supporting whatever theories they come up with and voting for the Democratic nominee.
@Andy: Was the election yesterday? By what logic is he “currently losing? Polls? Polls are ‘A’ source of data–not “THE” source. And that is assuming you believe the polls are representative of who is going to turn out in November. Reading the fine print–I believe the polls are biased to people that respond to polls which can be equal to the electorate–but lately has not been. 5% margin of error sounds good–but not so much in an era where %1-%2 carries the day.
And assuming your premise is correct–there is no ‘how’ to consider. We can swap out Biden’s name for DeSantis. Desantis was currently losing to Trump–how did he think he can win? At a certain point–voters feel whatever they feel about a candidate and there is no going back. Essentially, after a few months he was a consultancy jobs program and not a real candidate.
My opinion–is that voters already feel a certain way about Biden who, in November, will have been in the limelight of VP & POTUS for 12 years. There is no campaign engineering for him at this point–none of it has the mass and force to overcome those 12 years of known quantity. Conversely, there is no consensus candidate that can bring out the Biden/Obama or B. Clinton coalitions–simply for the fact that the most loyal segment of the Biden coalition is invested in the Biden Administration and its activities. If you think that segment is going to go for the banana in the tailpipe–think again.
@Andy: It’s worth remembering that we were being harangued during the midterms about a coming Red Wave, and that in most of the special elections, Democrats are outperforming both polls and district averages. It’s not that I discount polls, it’s just that there have been some weird variances of late that are probably worth keeping on the radar.
@Raoul:
There are several reasons why an open convention won’t work:
Time Ballot deadlines in some states are before the convention, so the candidate has to be chosen before the convention or be left off the ballot.
Process There is no process for choosing a candidate at the convention any more. Conventions are just television shows now, nothing more.
There isn’t even a vestigial process for choosing a candidate outside of the convention. Everyone who talks about has no more idea of how to make it happen than “then a fairy waves a magic wand and [insert candidate name here] is the candidate.”
Who? There’s no consensus candidate. Attempting to replace Biden would only open rifts in the party, create anger, destroy the unity the party needs to win.
Money, money, money Any new candidate would start from zero. No cash, no campaign offices, no staff, not even yard signs, and no money to buy any of the things they need. (Unless the candidate is Harris, which Modulo Myself assures me Black women will be completely fine with her being passed over even though I am seeing different. It’s not like Black women are crucial to Democratic success).
Can they even do it? running for president is not like running for any other office in any state, as multiple governors and senators have found out. It’s hard and it takes time to learn, but whoever Democrats nominate would have to hit the ground running.
Time redux Early voting starts really early. It’s just a few weeks from the convention before early voting starts. There isn’t enough time to really introduce a new candidate in the time available before voting starts.
Others can probably add to this. But, basically, it’s just too late.
@Modulo Myself:
Go talk to some Black voters. Put it to them like this. See what they say. If they say “Oh, okay, no problem. Pass over the sitting vice president” then I will withdraw my comment. But that’s not the opinion I’m seeing when I see Black voters talking.