Record Number of Congressmen Not Running for Re-Election
An ominous sign for the majority party.
NPR (“The record-setting pace of retirements from Congress continues, led by Republicans“):
One in eight members of Congress now say they plan to leave their current seats after this election cycle, the second-highest total in the last century.
According to NPR’s congressional retirement tracker, as of March 5, there are 67 current representatives and senators who are retiring or running for a different office — 13 senators and 54 House members.
They include the surprise retirement announcements this week from Montana Republicans Sen. Steve Daines and Rep. Ryan Zinke and Utah Republican Rep. Burgess Owens’ decision in the wake of that state’s redistricting that adds a Democratic-leaning seat.
In total, 36 lawmakers say they intend to retire from public office with the rest looking to run for a different office. There are 15 looking to become governors of their states, 15 looking to make the jump from House to Senate and Texas Republican Rep. Chip Roy is running for attorney general of his state.
Roy heads to a May 26 runoff after finishing second in Texas’ March 3 primary.
Other notable retirements include longtime leaders such as California Rep. Nancy Pelosi and Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell and a slew of politicians looking to flee Washington, D.C., for state or local offices.
Tennessee Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn and Colorado Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet are not up for reelection in 2026 but would resign their seats if they win their respective gubernatorial races.
They join 10 lawmakers who began the 119th Congress in January and have since died or resigned. Former Rep. Mikie Sherrill resigned her New Jersey House seat effective Nov. 20 after winning her race for governor earlier in the month.
As the 2026 midterm primaries get underway, Texas Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw is the first incumbent that voters chose to send home.
Four other Texas incumbents — Republican Sen. John Cornyn and Democratic Reps. Al Green, Christian Menefee and Julie Johnson will also have their fates decided in the runoff. Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales announced late March 5 that he would retire at the end of his term after admitting he had an extramarital affair with a former staffer who later died by suicide.
Add one more to the list: California Republican Rep. Darrell Issa, whose seat got consolidated in the recent partisan gerrymander, and announced late yesterday that he would not run.
Let’s grant that there are multiple categories here that we should not lump together:
- House Members running for a higher office and thus ineligible to run for re-election
- Elderly Members who really ought to have retired years ago, most of whom are almost sure to be replaced by co-partisans
- Relative moderates who have been ousted by more ideological candidates in a party primary
- Those who are just sick of the environment in DC
- Those who would likely lose in November, so are bowing out to avoid the embarrassment
Still, those situations exist in most cycles, and we’re at near-record levels.
My strong guess, then, is that we’re seeing an usually high number of the last two, particularly the last one. Usually, that means the insiders anticipate a wave election that’s going to oust members of their party—usually the majority party.
OpenSecrets has tracking going back to 1990 for both the House:
and the Senate:
Coincidence with wave elections is imperfect but noticeable.
One of the subtle things that generally causes more House Republicans to retire than House Dems are the caucus rule changes Newt Gingrich made. Republican committee chairs are term-limited and the rules for selecting Republican chairs greatly devalued tenure. Being a House member at 68 and getting all of the perks that go with being chair of a major committee is one thing; being 68 and a back bencher with none of those perks is quite another.
The Dems will never have a Paul Ryan figure — elected Speaker at age 45 after already chairing the Budget Committee and the Ways and Means Committee — unless they change their rules.