Saturday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Saturday, June 8, 2024
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45 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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Man who killed unhoused woman with pellet gun gets five years in prison: ‘Her life mattered’
Brandy Nazworth a better person than I. Some sins I just can not forgive.
So we did attend the Baltimore Symphony concert at Fort McHenry and it was very nice and relaxing. They opened, of course, with the Star Spangled Banner, and listening to it with the Fort where it happened in the background, flying a modern flag in the exact location the Banner flew, was truly moving.
William Anders, the astronaut who took the Earthrise photograph in the Apollo 8 mission, was killed in a plane crash yesterday.
I have to wonder about the sense of a 90 year old person flying a plane solo.
The crash is being investigated by the FAA and NTSB. The news pieces have more info on the iconic photograph than on the crash. Here’s some more info on the plane and accident. There is video alleged to be of the crash (curious other news sources didn’t carry it).
From parched earth to landslides: crisis in the prosecco hills of Italy
Those Chinese thought of everything when they pulled this global warming hoax.
That kid is no fool, he knows Sunak is going to try and take his ice cream back.
Can anyone tell me why any comment I offer goes to moderation, and sometimes never is seen again?
Is it my aol address? Is it because of the “@” in the middle of my handle?
Is there some way of “fixing” this?
There’s a column in the NYT today where the writer heaps scorn on Fauci over the six foot rule and in the process demonstrates her boundless ignorance. So basically she’s heaping scorn because the six feet recommendation doesn’t apply to airborne particles. Maybe she should direct that scorn at herself. Six feet is a good recommendation for airborne particles the size of a sneeze droplet. The word she’s fumbling for is “aerosolized”, which means that the particles would stay in the air indefinitely. While it is most definitely true that individual Covid viruses are more than small enough to be aerosolized, we still don’t know if the virus ejected by coughing, sneezing or breathing primarily rode on droplets (which would mostly drop in six feet) or came out as individual viruses. Finally, even if the virus was entirely aerosolized it disburses quickly with distance. Under ideal conditions there would be nearly ten times fewer viruses in the air you breathed at six feet than at two. So bottom line, she has “done her own research” with the intent of fanning her anger and finding ammunition for snark, and in the process demonstrated her ignorance and unwillingness to learn.
Keeping your distance from potentially infectious people is good advice, even if you don’t know how their specific infection is transmitted.
A step too far even for the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals:
Fifth Circuit blocks religious-liberty training order in Southwest Airlines case
I wonder how “religious-liberty training” offerings differ between a “normal” training regime and a far-right Christian Nationalist organization.
The more I read about the Texla Compexation Xaga, the more I’m reminded of fearful bronze-age peoples sacrificing sheep and goats as tribute to the various gods to gain or keep their favor.
As to the threat that Xlon will leave if not compexated, I imagine an irate father threatening his children thus: “Cut it out right now, or I’ll take you out for ice cream! I mean it!”
@Bob@Youngstown: Damned if I know. It seems to be just you and SKI that it happens to constantly. But, heck, my own comments go into moderation (particularly if I’m commenting from my phone) quite often.
Matt Bernius is going to take a deep dive into the backend later in the month to see if he can figure something out to this and other issues we’re having. I’m increasingly inclined just to move the thing to Substack or the like if we can’t get this site working better. It may just be that WordPress can’t handle a 21-year-old site with thousands of posts, millions of comments, and a dozen or so plug-ins operating.
I intermittently follow some sites on renewable energy in general and battery development in particular. I think most people are unaware of the rapid developments in battery tech. Improvements in range, safety and durability are all coming online and there is more in the pipeline. We are just seeing batteries expected to last 500,000 miles and CATL has just released a battery they will warrant for 1 million miles. TVs are going to be more accessible, economical and practical than ICE cars just based upon their own capabilities. The issue is going to be the charging infrastructure.
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2024/06/electric-car-battery-longevity-right-to-repair/678641/
Steve
Costco is going to stop selling books except at Christmas. Apparently putting them out for display and returning unsold ones is too much work for the staff.
@OzarkHillbilly: Telling my family that if someone texts about killing people then shoots me to death, I will haunt them to the grave if they tell prosecutors a 5-year plea is appropriate.
Because hell naw.
@DK:
You don’t have a guilty conscience because your mother, the grandmother of your children, was homeless.
@CSK:
Bummer. I was walking thru Costco a couple weeks ago as they were putting out many large piles of my wife’s latest book.
@Michael Reynolds:
Yeah, I thought immediately of you and Katherine. It hadn’t occurred to me what a major bookseller Costco is. This is a blow to the publishing biz.
@Michael Reynolds: Yeah, I wondered about that for a second or two until I remembered that I’m not a multi-time best selling author who has the resources to do pretty much whatever I want. Afterwards, I decided that I wouldn’t want to be judged regarding what I should/can do and decided to do the same for her.
@DK:
@OzarkHillbilly:
My first thought was “Five years? That’s it????”
Then I read the story.
My second thought was then, “Five years? Hell NO!!!. That’s some bullshit right there.”
All I can think of is what would the sentence be if the shooter would have been a 19 year old black or latino male? What if the shooter was a migrant? What if the shooter was a non-binary or trans person?
Damn. Five years for murder…. I’d be looking to exact my own revenge if someone killed my mother, homeless or not.
@Bob@Youngstown: I can offer no insight beyond that computers are fickle and spiteful things.*
Have you tried just being someone else? “Bob of the Youngstown Bobs” with a different email address? (I’m not sure OTB even uses the email address for anything).
It’s an ancient, semi-functional site. It may just demand the “Bob@Youngstown” handle as sacrifice. Or it could be triggered by any number of other things unique to you.
*: not really, but computers are very good at automating human error, and debugging complex interactions is hard and painful.
@Bob@Youngstown: @James Joyner: I don’t know if this makes in difference but I had the moderation problem until I set up a WordPress account for OTB
@Bob@Youngstown: @James Joyner: I don’t know if this makes in difference but I had the moderation problem until I set up a WordPress account for OTB
@Mr. Prosser: Interesting. I’ve read others who note their problems starting after they opened their accounts. Hmmm…
@CSK:..books…
I can not speak for Costco. However at one time I had a part time job working for a book distributor. Once a week I would visit two Walmart stores and one Kmart. The books were delivered to the stores and it was my job to set out new arrivals for display and sale and pack up returns. There were adult book sections and children’s book sections in all three stores. The Walmart and Kmart employees were not involved. I did hear from more than one manager: “At least you show up to work the book displays.” Apparently in the past the book deliveries would sit in the storerooms untouched.
@MarkedMan:
Consider if you might be overly harsh in your assessment of the writer’s (Zeynep Tufekci) knowledge. They have published in some high-impact journals (Science, BMJ, Lancet) on the very topic of airborne transmission. Given this, I suspect they know quite well the finer distinctions you are referencing.
The NYT piece is for a lay audience and, as all such pieces do, sacrifices some scientific nuance for broad consumption. When this type of thing hits my areas of expertise, it rankles me and I go full blast (mostly in my own mind where I am always the smartest person in the space).
Moreover, the article only references the 6 foot rule twice:
and
Although they may not be as nuanced as you, an expert, prefer, is there anything in these paragraphs that are frankly wrong. Again, remember the intended audience.
More broadly, the theme of her article was about the issue of trust and how, in her estimation, some public health officials contributed to the decay in trust (of scientific and other institutions) that we’ve seen over the last several years. Tone aside, I think that’s a worthwhile conversation (I suspect you do too). And I think this author and this piece contribute substantively to it, which is not to be taken as a blanket endorsement of the author, the piece, or the tone.
ps, I’m a symphony denizen myself. In fact, I drove the truck that led (and carried) our symphony contingent in the local pride parade. You’ve got a fine symphony in Baltimore and an outstanding young conductor. And the Meyerhoff ain’t too shabby either.
@Kathy:
A vintage Navy trainer, made just at the end of WW2. Anders was very active in the vintage aircraft museum at Arlington WA, and all but certainly it was one of their birds. Keeping antique aircraft in the air is risky business so I wouldn’t jump to the conclusion his age was a factor.
@Mister Bluster:
My fleeting impression of Walmart’s literary offerings is that they consist of romance novels, the “left behind” series, and non-fiction about finding God.
@Mimai:
I would say, yes. And seriously and dangerously. She’s raising doubt about things that are legitimate scientific debates but would not change the 6’ advice regardless of which side “won” the debate.
What I suspect she is talking about is the evidence early on that it could be transmitted via HVAC systems over significant distances, which confirmed the worse outcome, infectious particles were suspended in the air long enough to travel in vents. But she implies that means the 6’ was a waste of time. It wasn’t! Getting farther away from infectious people is better. So, should a public health agency have changed their outreach based on this findings? No! What would they have changed it to? “Six feet is good, but more is better”?
Wont be received well by libertarians or the Trump cult but link goes to Dallas Fed paper suggesting that the return on government investing in R&D are pretty good, 150%-300% and govt is probably underfunding research.
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/papers/2023/wp2305
Steve
Orwell’s 1984 was published today in 1949.
The IDF just rescued 4 October 7th hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza that Joe Biden has been so desperate to force Israel to abandon in hopes of mollifying his Hamas-aligned supporters.
@MarkedMan:
I’m not sure I understand your point.* In the paragraph that preceded the mention of the 6′ rule, she wrote:
Based on this paragraph, and the rest of the article, her point seems to be that many of the recommendations (including the 6′ rule) were not sufficiently grounded in evidence and yet were presented as such. And this has contributed to the erosion of trust.
This is related to her point about public beaches, parks, etc — such outdoor spaces (and consequent social distances) provide sufficient protection given the trade-offs. And, thus, it was bad public policy (and public relations) to advise that they be shut down for as long as they were.
*This is likely my shortcoming, as I am not the expert you are.
The 6 foot rule was not supported by a series of RCTs, but it was still pretty routine science, at least in the medical field. In context 3 feet was the old rule but when the pandemic came along looked back at that rule and realized it was totally made up so they had to scramble to come up with a new suggestion. Absent any literature they relied upon the consensus of a group of people with expertise. This is actually pretty common in medicine where sometimes a disease or intervention is so new we dont have good literature yet. Sometimes it’s an issue which is difficult to study, would be immoral or too costly. So we follow consensus guidelines hoping for good literature in the future. In this case we knew from lab studies that the concentration of virus decreases the further away from the infected person so they chose a distance that was both semi-practical and useful.
Steve
@DK: @EddIeInCA: My ex-wife put my sons in unforgivable situations, allowed things to happen to them, interfered with court ordered treatment, engaged in Munchausen’s behavior, and abused them emotionally to such an extent, it’s a wonder they are as sane as they are.
I have not forgiven her that, any of it.
The tens of thousands of dollars she stole from me, either directly or by putting me in a situation where if I did not cover for her shortfalls, my sons would have suffered? I could not give a rat’s ass about. I’d have probably just gone on another caving expedition with it.
But waking up at 2 AM and listening to my eldest son’s end of a conversation with his very drunk mother and realizing she was repeatedly accusing him of abandoning her… After he got off the phone with her I told him, time and again, that it was NOT possible for a child to abandon a parent. And I told him that again the next day. And the next week, the next month…
I remember coming home from work one winter’s eve, still covered in job site mud to find my youngest locked in the bathroom and refusing to open the door. And I knew she had been there, putting the guilt trip from hell on him and when I finally got him to open the door, he told again and again how all he wanted to do was cut himself.
I have never been so terrified in all my life, and if she had been standing before me right then I might very well have killed her. There is more, so very, very, much more.
My son’s have forgiven her. They have forgotten a lot I suspect. Maybe that is even well and right, it’s not for me to say. The relationship between a son and his mother is sacred and I dare not tread there. A couple years ago, my youngest asked me what “my truth” was. I thought about it for 15 or 20 seconds, then said, “No, no, that stays with me.”
I have not forgiven my ex. If she had killed one of my sons (and she came close once or twice) my feelings toward her could be no stronger. I never will forgive her.
I’m in anger counseling again, for that and other issues in my past. I am fortunate to have a wife who loves me and puts up with my shit. I pray she always will. If the day ever comes she can’t? I will love her just the same.
@OzarkHillbilly:
You’re a good person.
@Bob@Youngstown:
Now that I am on sabbatical, I am going to be digging into some of the back end worries issues and that issue is on my list.
@steve:
I agree with everything you wrote.
Going back to the NYT piece, her overall point is one of trust. What does the science say, how is that communicated to the public, and how does that translate into public health recommendations and policy.
In her opinion (to the extent that I understand it), there was too much of a disconnect among the science, communication, and translation. And, in her opinion, this disconnect contributed to eroding trust.
I think that is a legitimate perspective. And I think she is a legitimate (and informed) scholar and commenter on this matter.
When it comes to communicating at me, I want the straight up facts, as best we know them at the time. Of course I do. Because I am cognitively, emotionally, and socially equipped to handle the straight up facts. Just ask me.
When it comes to communicating at the public, I’m more conflicted on the matter. A foundation of my guiding philosophy on life is to respect others’ self-ownership and self-governance. I really really really dislike condescension and infantilization.
And yet, I know people. Lots of them. I’ve spoken to them. I’ve witnessed their behavior. I’m professionally trained in people. And so I know that when it comes to matters of public health, my guiding philosophy on life, if applied, has a high probability of ending in disaster.
Hence, I think it is a legitimate perspective that public health officials are right, in some instances, to not deliver the straight up facts to the public. Where and how we define “in some instances” is an important conversation. So too is the who that are allowed to be part of the “we” in the previous sentence.
I found a Youtube channel with full Mytbusters episodes
There goes the weekend.
@Mimai: I get that she wants a scientific debate in public during a pandemic but that is not how public health campaigns work. In fact, they can’t work that way. Early on, Public Health officials put out easy to understand guidelines, which is the most important thing. At every opportunity you reinforce those simple rules. As the science comes in, you ask (internally), “Does this change our guidance?” If the answer is no, you just continue with the guidance. Nothing changed the distancing recommendation, including what this writer was so offended by. But the washing hands? Once it was known that wasn’t a vector they dropped it from the messaging. Importantly and correctly, they didn’t start a public campaign about the change because a) it did no harm, and b) it would die on its own without reinforcement. Public health campaigns are not about educating the general public about some ongoing scientific debate. Never was, never will be, and never should be.
Really struggling with not feeding the troll, here, because I’m goddamn tired of the “talking points”.
Strong possibility I might need to take a break from politics.
@MarkedMan:
Thanks for engaging. Have a good evening.
Another containership got out of control in a harbor this week.
Lucked out this time, only minor damage.
@Jax: Wait, who’s the troll? Was there a troll today? Maybe I was the troll?
@MarkedMan:
I would like to think our public health system would never start a campaign telling people to stop washing their hands.
It might not be the most common vector for spreading Covid, but people are filthy beasts and should be encouraged to clean themselves up whenever possible.
@JKB: Biden does not have Hamas-aligned supporters, and no one objects to Israel conducting operations to rescue hostages or strike at Hamas leadership.
People object to bombing every structure in Gaza, cutting off food and water for civilian populations, creating 1.8 million refugees, killing 35,000 people, etc.
Do better, buttercup. Go back to sniffing glue in the corner.
@MarkedMan: I suspect you are not the referenced troll.
Ex-LSU player Josh Maravich, son of Hall of Fame player Pete Maravich, dead at age 42
He out lived his father Pistol Pete by two years.
RIP