Saturday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Saturday, June 29, 2024
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40 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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Martin Mull died at age 80 yesterday. RIP, sir.
The Florida headline of the day- Florida man accused of shooting Walmart delivery drone
Daily multivitamins do not help people live longer, major study finds
Analysis of 400,000 healthy adults finds no health benefits from taking daily multivitamins
Glad I saved my money.
@OzarkHillbilly: A study back in the late 80s, iirc, concluded that the researchers wouldn’t even have been able to tell which subjects had taken supplements if they hadn’t had lists of who were subjects and who were the control group.
Meantime, Iran had an election with very low turnout.
I don’t know much about Iranian politics, but it seems the president has rather limited authority, and is or can be superseded by the modestly named Supreme Leader. Therefore presidential elections would seem to change little as regards leadership.
@OzarkHillbilly:
@just nutha:
In an ep of The Big Bang Theory, Sheldon tell Penny the vitamins and supplements she’s buying are “ingredients for expensive urine.”
As I understand, any sort of balanced diet provides the required vitamins and minerals for most people. Supplements are more necessary for people who can’t properly absorb or break down vitamins/minerals from food for various reasons, and sometimes for people with certain dietary deficiencies.
RE: vitamins–the only supplement that has any science at all behind it, for limited groups of people, is Vitamin D. And even that should only be used with medical supervision, since it’s fat soluble and can build up.
I take a daily supplement of Vitamin D, under the advice and monitoring of my doctor. I’m very fair skinned and have had skin cancer, so I am a sunscreen devotee…and I live pretty far north, and for Vitamin D, diet alone rarely provides enough (unless you eat masses of canned salmon, because that contains bones). My levels are in normal range, which would almost certainly not be the case if I didn’t supplement. YMMV.
Heather Cox Richardson has some revealing observations on Wannabehittler’s relation to Mad Vlad’s attempted conquest of Ukraine
I can’t really excerpt it without quoting the whole thing, it’s a short read. The gist is Mad Vlad was working to get the previous (so called) administration to acquiesce in fragmenting Ukraine and taking over parts as puppet states. This ended with Biden’s election, and then a full invasion was seen as “necessary.”
From Quackwatch.org
Vitamins and “Health” Foods:
The Great American Hustle
When I was very young, before I started kindergarten (no pre-school in the early ’50s), my mom would serve me canned Campbell’s Cream of Mushroom Soup over a slice of toasted white bread for lunch. Followed by a spoonful of liquid vitamins drawn out of a glass bottle with the provided glass dropper. Yuk!
For some reason or other the vitamin regimen didn’t last.
Much later in the ’80s I dabbled in vitamin supplements. I think that I read somewhere that if I took Vitamin XYZ that I could drink all the swill and smoke all the tobacco and weed that I wanted and remain in the peak of health!*
I quit the vitamins after a while because when it came to paying for vitamins or butts, booze and weed it was no contest. The “healthy supplements” had to go.
I still buy Campbell’s Cream of Mushroom soup and put it on a baked potato. My cooking tools consist of a can opener and a microwave.
Today my only drug is caffeine.
Maybe I’ll live another year.
*Disclaimer: I am not a physician and I do not represent anything I post as medical or nutritional advice.
The headline of the day- German woman given harsher sentence than rapist for calling him ‘pig’
Is the OTB commentariat back to its senses yet? The pants wetting here was embarrassing . The Thursday debate performance was predictable… and meaningless.
For the thousandth time. A debate and debating skills have fuck all to do with the job of POTUS, Even more important, political debates. as conducted in the US are essentially useless in evaluating a candidate’s aptitude for political office. Debates are entertaining for political nerds…noting more or less.
You’d think the Party of smart people would have discredited Debates years ago…but we all know how futile it is to get between an American and his entertainment. We must first, second, and third most be entertained. Oddly, we don’t care about the entertainment value of the people we personally hire to do thing for us— unless you count the time I fired my HVAC guy because his zingers were shitty.
Essentially, if an idiot sociopath has a chance to get elected POTUS, then so does a sane but elderly man who already beat said sociopath. Anyone of these whyte talking headz on TV who think Democrats can hold the Black voting coalition that breaks for them by 88-90% after shitcanning the President THEY elevated—for Newsome or Whitmer, only prove they are stealing money for being an analyst. Biden has elevate more Black folks to positions of power than any President-ever. Furthermore, Black culture is still overwhelmingly respectful of its elderly members. Age is not the deal-breaker it seems to be for White Dems.
So, embrace what you got—Biden is old. So what? A POTUS needs more Brains than vitality. You can pick youthful energy in your Staff/-and Bidens Staff is one of the most youthful ever. Do any of you think if China invaded Taiwan next year Biden wouldn’t build and hold a coalition together? You know—THE EFFING JOB. If you conclude that Biden can do the JOB of POTUS better than Trump…then fuck the Debate. Pull yourself out of the morass of superficially that infects society. It’s great to have a photogenic charismatic President…it’s not a requirement and Dems should stop treating it as so.
@Jim Brown 32:
Polls before Thursday’s debate showed 80 to 90 percent of those polled saying they Biden is too old to serve another term.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/poll-americans-on-biden-age/story?id=107126589
Do you think that got better?
Stupid conspiracy theory* of the day: Helen Keller wasn’t real.
https://amp.theguardian.com/books/2021/jan/07/helen-keller-why-is-a-tiktok-conspiracy-theory-undermining-her-story
* They’re all stupid. And most are hateful.
@Kingdaddy:
Stupid conspiracy theories sell unfortunately. Take for instance this former best seller.
@Bill Jempty: It’s a ridiculous poll question. Biden was really too old when he was elected..so that’s a settled question no matter how many times it’s polled. Now he’s 4 years older and running against ANOTHER old man—who avoided the aging process of the Presidency because he didn’t do shit but Press Conferences and work 10-3.
Do you see how manipulative the poll question is? Because that’s NOT a fundamental question. Those questions would be: Which candidate would do the better job as POTUS? OR which Democratic candidate, heretofore undeclared, can turn out the Biden Coalition with 4 months until Election Day.
I don’t like to think inside the framework media scriptors create for us to think in…you shouldn’t either.
@Jim Brown 33:
Up to Thursday I was maybe the only democratic regular at this blog that voiced concern about Biden’s age and ability to do the job. When I expressed these views I sometimes got attacked or thrown snark my way. Either Ozark or Gustopher said on more than one occasion I should run for President. That’s pretty stupid.
Suddenly a truck load of commenters here have come to the same conclusion I have been stating for a long time. Biden is old, he’s in cognitive decline, and he’s not going to get better.
@Jim Brown 33:
I appreciate your optimism, and dearly hope you’re right.
But going into the debate Biden was down a steady 5+ points in almost every swing state. The true believers on both sides are set. The game now is for the fence-sitters, the low-info indifferent folks, and the people incapable of deciding between bad and much, much worse. Biden’s task going in was to reach those people. He failed. And he failed in the most damaging way by confirming the MAGA narrative about him. He looked weak and out-of-it.
He exacerbated this, IMO, by putting on a much more energetic show the next day, leading to the question: WTF, Joe?
Maybe this is not fatal. But the mission was to change the narrative, and he not only failed to do that, he confirmed the opposing narrative. When does he get another chance to reach 48 million people and spawn hundreds of TikTok and YouTube clips? There will not be a second debate, Trump would be a fool to risk his win. We are four months out, and he’s doing damage control.
The one up-side I can think of is that he may have terrified a lot of Democrats out of their complacency.
@Jim Brown 32: Absolutely right. And it’s telling that the mainstream publications that have seemingly endless articles fixated on Biden’s performance are substantially silent on Trump’s tsunami of lies and fascist plans.
I also brought back to me how Biden was early on in the primaries in 2020. Bit sleepy and unfocused. Having Harris (and others) hand his ass to him in those debates forced him to up his game. I am hoping this debacle will have the same effect.
@Bill Jempty: “Polls before Thursday’s debate showed 80 to 90 percent of those polled saying they Biden is too old to serve another term.”
And yet, polls then and polls now show an essentially tied race.
So maybe you are not quite as much in the vanguard of Democratic thought as you seem to think you are.
@Michael Reynolds: I agree with most of your analysis. (Not so sure about Trump refusing a second debate — I’m sure he’d think he would grind Biden into dust and would be eager for the chance.)
The question is what to do about it. There is no mechanism for “removing” or “replacing” Biden on the ticket, unless he chooses to step down. And even if he did, what then? Despite the insistence of so many, there is no Democratic candidate named Joe Unbeatable. Besides, the obvious replacement is Kamal Harris — she has, after all, won the primary for vice-president, and she is not tremendously popular her herself? What’s the mechanism for getting rid of her? And what happens to the Democratic coalition if the Black woman candidate is thrown off the ticket and replaced with a white guy? Or even a white woman?
@Jim Brown 32:
About 50-50, I gather.
@wr:
It would have to be Biden’s decision. And you’re right, how does the Democratic Party sideline the first Black and first female Veep? So it would have to be a choice by Joe and Kamala. Which pushes it even further into not-gonna-happen territory.
Related question: who the fuck is running the Biden campaign, and how did they let that train-wreck happen?
@Michael Reynolds:
Its simple, Michael. People begin believing their own propaganda*. Biden is fine, he runs a great NSC meeting etc etc. Say a lie often enough you believe it.
*- Soviet leadership for example in the 70’s and 80’s. Their bureaucracy fearing for their lives if they told the truth, fed falsehoods to their leadership. The leadership who caused this fear, believed what was being told them. You get the answers you want and you believe it no matter untrue they are.
I believe there is a great hunger among many many voters for a younger energetic articulate candidate, anyone but these two flawed old men, one a raving mad man, and the other a decent man suffering from the relentless and irreversible effects of old age. Keeping Biden on the ballot is leading us to a great tragedy in November. I find it hard to understand the everything will be alright attitude of several usually thoughtful and articulate commenters on this site. The ongoing sleep walk towards the most important election in 160 years continues somehow uninterrupted by the horrible nightmare of Thursday night.
continues despite the horrible nightmare on Thursday
I’m a Berks Celtic Festival today, and I got to pet Irish wolf hounds, so yay! <3 <3
Lately Southwest looks as though it’s trying to out-Boeing Boeing.
The latest consisted in taking off from a closed runway, where there was a work vehicle carrying out an inspection.
The piece at the link provides links to earlier incidents.
Boeing won’t be thrilled, either. They had nothing to do with the Southwest follies, but the airline has an all-Boeing fleet, and naturally all these incidents identify the Boeing 737 in question.
@PAtrick McNicol: I too wish for a 36 year old with 20 years experience as a successful governor, George Clooney’s looks and charisma, and who agrees with my views, with which no right thinking person could disagree, on all questions. In this reality we can choose to stick with Biden or unleash chaos. Dr. T has a new post up on that very subject.
What would GOPs be doing had Trump babbled incoherently and foamed at the mouth Thursday evening? Which he was close to doing. They’d all be maintaining it never happened.
@Stormy Dragon:
And you still have your fingers in order to type. Good for you!
@Bill Jempty:
Trump is old as well, and he’s an idiot.
@Bill Jempty:
The ones at the festival seemed to be those giant cuddlebug dogs who absolutely love everyone
@Stormy Dragon:
My experiences with dogs of late with one exception* is negative. They bark and and are aggressive towards me. Just before I had to move out of my foreclosed home, a neighbor’s dog jumped at me and scratched one of my legs. I needed wound care afterwards.
Pets aren’t allowed where I live except ESA animals and such. At least four people in our building have dogs. One I call the little monster, a French Poodle, and that dog is on my floor. LM has charged me more than once and I had to swing my laundry basket at them once. Their owner went apeshit afterwards. I don’t give a hoot. No dog is going to bite or scratch me if I can help it.
*- My neighbor Miriam has a medium to large dog named Bella. Not sure what breed Bella is, but she is a sweetheart.
Here’s some personal and non-politics stuff involving me
*- As I noted before, I have lost my long time dermatologist, Dr Rabinovitz. Dr R has been a pioneer in diagnosing malignant melanoma and I have had 7 of those diagnosed over the years. So I need a top flight dermatologist.
I got a hold of Dr R. He recommended two doctors to me. First choice is one at the University of Miami 60-70 miles to my south though our local train service has a stop right across the street from where I’d have to go.
Bad news= This doctor doesn’t have an available appointment till March next year. I need to be seen by a dermatologist every 4 months.
The 2nd doctor sees patients at the same office* as Dr. R used to see me at. She can also see me the week after next. So I got an appointment for July 10. Cross your fingers this doctor is good for me.
#2- Western Beef sold off their supermarket near me. This happened sometime last month. A new company is at the same place.
Dear Wife and I mostly went to WB for two things- Seafood and Pepperidge Farm Vanilla Cake.
They were the only store anywhere near my home to carry the latter and I always like it for my birthday and very occasionally** for dessert.
DW or I will check out the replacement store sometime soon. If that cake isn’t carried anymore, I’ll scream.
*- 40 miles from my present home but I don’t mind making the drive.
**- Like 3 or 4 times a year plus my birthday.
The GOP would have done nothing had Trump foamed at the mouth. They are no longer a political party capable of any rational actions. The Dems are a rational political party capable of rational action. A replacement candidate does not have to be everything you describe. They just need to be under 60 articulate, energetic and able to think on their feet. They will have three months to make their case to an electorate desperate for a chance to vote for someone other than the two old men they saw on the stage Thursday night,
Your welcome.
I don’t remember saying that but it sounds like something I might say. As far as it being stupid, that would be the whole point.
@Bill Jempty: Fingers crossed.
@OzarkHillbilly: Might have been me. But, yes, the stupidity is the point. It’s a stupid complaint and deserves a stupid response.
“No one is running against Biden!” Jesus Fucking Christ that’s stupid.
The reason Biden was unopposed in the primaries is simply that no one opposed him. It’s not a grand plot by the DNC, or Democrats or Them. Each person made a rational decision not to.
Are you going to force Gavin Newsom or whoever to run? How? Hold him at gun point?
Anyway, at this point you also need a Time Machine, and once you have that you can solve all sorts of problems — just travel way back and start stomping on butterflies and hope for the best.
@Bill Jempty:
Please, please, please combine those into one dish. Cake with shrimp garnish, covered in cocktail sauce. Perfection!
I might try it with a lemon cake though.
@OzarkHillbilly:..Blues Brothers…
I was in the Dixie Square Mall not long after it opened in 1966 to visit a friend who worked there. Nice place as I recall.
You want out of this parking lot? OK…
So, apparently it runs in families. I now have a trans nephew, sorry, niece, (give me a minute, just happened) as well as a daughter. This is different in that my daughter was 18, and very much a precocious adult who had researched the whole thing to PhD levels, while this kid is just coming up on puberty. Literally no one has any doubts, it was a ‘no, duh’ reveal, but her parents carry a greater burden than we had. They’re in a free state, but times have changed and they’re dealing with a minor.
What they need now is for some fucking MAGA loudmouth to offer their opinions. Seeing these moments up close and knowing the individuals and the details, it makes it even clearer that it is no one’s business but theirs. When in doubt, a good rule of thumb is still, MYOFB.