Saturday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Saturday, October 12, 2024
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38 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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BlueSky.
“Jezebel”
WTF
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1844456227398357075
For more of such stuff:
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1844456638599553242
For the weekend, a collection of links:
“The.Ink”
One feature of the US constitution that’s much admired is the separation of powers, and the associated checks and balances of these powers.
There is much to say for that. It’s been imitated in many other countries, especially those who gained independence after the US did. It’s also a long tradition in Democratic societies, going well back to the divided magistracies in the Roman Republic.
But it all rests in the assumption that the branches of government are the power bases. This might have been so in the past, and it may be so again in the future, but right now the power bases are the duopoly parties. The only way these powers can be separated is if different parties control different branches.
The other assumption is that those in power will respect the law. On the right, this is becoming ever less so. I hope we won’t find out how much less, if Harris manages to win the presidency.
Music for the weekend The Toreador March.
I won’t go into my issues with opera, except to say I prefer much of the music without the lyrics.
Could Trump have happened 50 years ago? I don’t see how. I think his racism would be an overall negative, now it seems to be an overall positive. And his racism is basically the centerpiece of his campaign. He somehow has managed to convince half the country that the US is crime-ridden country on the verge of a depression, and the problem is immigrants (often he no longer talks about illegals, just immigrants). I just don’t believe that could have been happened 50 years ago. Fox news, social media and the reduction/elimination of influence of traditional media, disappearance of newspapers – what is the cause?
Just for funsies, the Kremlin today verified Bob Woodward’s tale in his book — Trump did in fact send Putin multiple test kits at the height of the pandemic.
Once again confirming that Trump loves Putin… but Putin knows both that Trump can be manipulated and humiliated and that Trump will do nothing in retaliation.
Great job, maga!
@Lucysfootball: Not 50 years ago but let’s try 85-90 years ago during the 1930s when the fascists were on the move here in the good old USA. When there were actual Nazi marches and huge rallies full of Nazi iconography. When Charles Lindbergh was hugely popular and Father Coughlin was broadcasting anti-Semitic rants on the new mass communication platform called radio. The parallels go on and on. If we didn’t have WWII, there would’ve been an alternate history to this country. And not for the better.
@Lucysfootball: I wonder if the anti-immigrant rants are deeply tied to the fact that two of his three wives were immigrants as was his mother. There is a deep sociopathy to Trump that has only been lightly explored.
Donald Trump is Putin’s source at the top, says former CIA chief
But none dare call it treason.
@Lucysfootball: To me this is a time that is very reminiscent of the 1890’s – a time of yellow journalism and xenophobia.
@Lucysfootball:
One of the things that has changed since 50 years ago is that it became possible for Trump to run on a foundation of celebrity alone. There have been earlier signs of it, eg, Arnold Schwarzenegger being elected governor of California. Fifty years ago Linda Ronstadt was the Queen of Rock, filling arenas all over the world, winning Grammy after Grammy, every album going gold or platinum. Could she have run for high elected office? But asking today if Taylor Swift could run for the Democratic nomination for president isn’t a silly question. After all, everyone hung breathless after the convention to see if she would endorse Harris.
At this point it looks like Trump is likely to win. I’m not loyal the the United States as a nation, I’m loyal to the ideals of the United States and I don’t want to spend the rest of my life in the Christofascist shitstorm that’s coming.
We are considering what we should do. As I’ve mentioned before I’d personally renounce citizenship, mostly to stop paying US taxes, but also to distance myself from the shame of association with the US. My wife is not there yet. She wants to stay and fight the good fight, but that’s naive. There won’t be a serious resistance for quite a while. The Left will fracture and set up the circular firing squads.
I want a safe place for our eldest daughter, though she’s more grounded in locality than I’ve ever been. But I expect Trump will revoke passports issued in trans names. I wonder if any countries will treat that as a political refugee situation.
Our youngest is apolitical and her BF has a business, so she should be fine. The BF is Salvadoran and she’s Chinese, but they live in Marin County, not a likely stronghold of MAGA brown shirts.
There’s likely to be a lot of street violence. I won’t be surprised to see gangs of young White males attacking trans people, gays, anyone who looks like an immigrant, and women in general. And of course Trump will signal his support for them, and police will cheer them on.
We’ll immediately abandon Ukraine, and probably be out of NATO within a year, allowing Putin to attack the Baltic countries. We won’t defend Taiwan, or South Korea for that matter. Israel will get the green light to attack Iran, possibly with direct US military support, though Trump won’t be able to stand any credit going to the US military. And I expect military funding to be cut dramatically.
The Pax Americana – 1945-2024 – that’s allowed for so much prosperity around the world will be over. The effects of climate change will be dramatically worse – we’ll do nothing to help.
I think we might get a digital nomad visa for a year in Portugal then see how things are going. Spend some time gobbling up bacalau, vinho verde and pasteis de nata. Alternately, Spain and jamon, Rioja reds and crema Catalana.
My you live in interesting times.
ETA: May well go abroad for an extended period even if Kamala wins – I’m sick of Americans.
A take on the declining quality of Google search results.
@Michael Reynolds Well, aren’t you a ray of sunshine on this happy Saturday!
@Scott:
I forget who, but someone raised the point that it’s not quite right to call Trump a fascist. Hitler and Mussolini were, however misguided, patriots. They wanted to strengthen Germany and Italy. But Trump doesn’t give damn about anything but himself. He’d as soon break the country up and sell off the parts.
@Michael Reynolds: You’ve said, I think yesterday, that you estimate 70/30 Trump wins. I say 50/50. But that doesn’t make me an optimist. Even if Kamala wins, we’ll have another election to save democracy in four years. And again, and again.
I’m old, makes for a short planning horizon. We won’t leave the country. I walked through Trump’s “platform” (like he means anything he says). I asked what will it mean to me if he does this. I’m whitebread and cis. If he does what he says, and I keep my head down, I likely won’t be targeted, I’ll just get poorer.
I am wondering whether people in swing states are getting endless text messages in the run up.
I live in Iowa. In the run up to the caucuses I got ten or twenty or so unsolicited texts a day. It ramps up hard near the end. Mostly from Republicans. I haven’t voted for a R in probably 30 years. You are wasting your time. I’m not your target audience.
As a young adult I would scour the candidate blurbs in the alt weeklies to determine who to vote for. I was already heavily leaning D, but divided government appeals to me fundamentally. I would actively look for an R I could vote for, in at least one vote, and feel okay about that.
(I miss alt weeklies. We had two – the Reader and City Pages.)
One time I inadvertently voted for the most reactionary, regressive R judge candidate because of memory failure. I did all the homework, but failed the test. Last names are slippery in my memory.
I still believe in divided government. But it is up to other voters to make that happen. I can no longer vote for an R even in obscure, down-ballot races. I cannot. Will not.
@Michael Reynolds: Let’s hope your prognostications about Trump winning this election go the way of your prognostications of Trump leaving the White House in handcuffs.
On a more pleasant note:
Ahoy, from Queen Mary 2, and Land Ho! Passing south of the Scillies, should see the Lizard in a few hours, and dock tomorrow early. A night in London, then off to Nice.
@gVOR10:
Well, of course, how else’s he going to make any $$$ off of it?
Not that he’ll actually make any money off of selling the carcass of America. After all, he’s never made anything off of any of his business ventures before.
And merciful Maude, aren’t we all in a bright and sunny place today?
SCOTUS is taking a case that could effectively ban nuclear power:
https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-nuclear-waste-texas-new-mexico-b7b3148e620584d1b9dca18481cbad0d
@Michael Reynolds: Was the weather clear enough to see the Northern Lights? Supposedly they are spectacular right now. They didn’t reach this far south.
@charontwo:
There is a song I know that uses “the wind” as a lyric.
Not English – Swedish or Icelandic.
Not Swedish, Icelandic. Vindur. Jonsi. Sigur Ros. Possibly Sugarcubes, def not Bjork.
I remember it it my head. It’s gotta be Sigur Ros.
@Kathy:
Hoppipolla (jumping in puddles in Icelandic) by Sigur Ros.
@Scott:
No, unfortunately, we had overcast. On the plus side we came out up about $400 in the casino.
@de stijl: There’s the album “Break Like the Wind” by Spinal Tap.
@de stijl: Not in a swing state, so the only spam texts I get are from charities and some employment/headhunting agency/phishing excursion entity. I think not being registered to vote helps some, too.
@Scott: Does it have their hits “Big Bottoms” and “Sex Farm”? One of the great scenes in the movie is when Spinal Tap is playing at a USO dance playing “Sex Farm” and they show the strange looks and blank stares from the people at the dance.
@Kathy: What downer forum today. Lyrics:
Toreador,
Don’t spit upon the floor,
Use the cuspidor,
That’s what it’s for.
@Mr. Prosser:
Yeah, I should have posted about that
The scene is totally unrealistic. For one thing, Lisa joins in laughing at Homer’s and Bart’s mockery of the opera. For another, Bart uses a the word “cuspidor” correctly.
Well, it was a very early episode.
I live in Illinois. So far my text count has not changed. Zero political texts. An occasional text from Chili’s. The only texts I open are from my brother and sister and my newspaper delivery office. I never answer the phone when it rings unless I can see the caller’s name. Even then I may not answer. Hardly any callers leave voicemails. Of the ones that do many are a few seconds of silence. Most of the rest are offering to help me pay back my student loan. I paid that $5000 off in the early ’80s. I hope no one paid for my contact information.
eMail is another matter. Lots of solicitation asking for donations to Harris/Walz and other Democratic candidates. I will vote a straight Democratic ticket in November. Can’t spare any coin right now. Today there was an eMail offer for a free Trump t-shirt. I deleted it along with all the others.
The Trump campaign seems to have gone all in immigrant hating. And it no.longer is just illegal immigrants, now it’s all immigrants. They are the cause of all woes in the country. It seems to resonate, and it helps if you just make shit up. They are responsible for the housing shortage, even though they are rarely competing for the same housing as the middle class. Not to mention that a huge percentage of construction workers are immigrants. Vance blames the 5% of immigrant children in schools for the complete failure of public schools. The added bonus it keeps Trump on message since immigrant-hating is in his wheelhouse.
@Mister Bluster:
I, too, deleted and blocked all the spurious texts and e-mails. Illinois isn’t a swing state – PA, WI, MI, NC, like that.
A lot of them have a tell – they unconvincingly try to address by my first name, but use either Almo or Irving. How many people have first name Almo in the US?
I think they are trying to pass it off as misdirected and you inadvertently got what was intended for Almo or Irving.
That only works as a presumption once or twice. When you get dozens, it is deliberate.
It’s just garbage candidacy fluff and PR. Nikki Haley is going to be at the downtown Marriott giving her stock campaign spiel. Vivek Ramaswamy is speaking at the QT at 15th and Grand.
I don’t fucking care. At all. Block, delete, block, delete, ad infinitum.
In Iowa, the run up to the caucuses is extraordinarily obnoxious in regards to unsolicited texts and TV ads. Nigh insufferable.
The day before the caucuses I got 24 texts.
@de stijl: Here in Michigan, yes. But then I also put in a few bucks at ActBlue, so I’m on the radar. One thing of note is that I’ve received at least three mailings from Mike Rogers, the Senate candidate who’s within spitting distance of Slotkin. I hope they waste more money mailing me.
@de stijl: Nikki Haley can join Mitt Romney in the “Lack of Profiles of Courage” contingent.
@Scott:
Jesus, give me access to the sound system at a Trump rally…I have something to play….
@dazedandconfused:
Playlist?
Maybe tease?
Returned home from a short road trip this afternoon. Walked in the bathroom and there was a little toad jumping around on the sink counter. It was easy enough to trap it in a paper cup and turn it loose on the front porch. In the 40 years that I have lived here this is only the second one I have found in my trailer house. The first one was perched on the toilet lid when I got home one night several years ago. I have seen far more snakes in my abode over the years.