Saturday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Saturday, October 19, 2024
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47 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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BlueSky.
If you haven’t seen this, take a minute.
Birds of a feather?
Incarcerated Texans supportive of Donald Trump in November, Marshall Project survey shows
The terrifying storm that threatened Nice failed to materialize. There were, by my count, four bits (Moments? Events?) of lightning over the airport and mild accompanying thunder. Au secours! Sauve qui peut!
Having had to blow off Chantecler, we were able to grab a table at its sister restaurant, Rotonde. Foie Gras, a really interesting sort of guacamole with something like granola, a fabulous bit of sea bass, a pavlova and a poached pear with dark chocolate. We stuck to the local vino, a rosé with the fanciful name, Whispering Angel.
The Negresco is a real piece of work with an amazingly eclectic art collection. Le Meridien, where we are, is not at that level, but our particular suite cannot be equaled for views. Also a great shower.
The two nearby casinos require you to show a passport. In Vegas you just have to not have your dick literally hanging out. Except at the dirty castle (Excalibur) where even that’s probably OK.
Once again I baffled a waitress and a store clerk who both made me as American til I spoke French. . . but then couldn’t understand what they were saying back to me. I suspect my flawless (um…) accent, while definitely French, may be a bit provincial (but not Provencal). I’m too nasal with the ‘u’ in Lundi, maybe a Charentais thing? I don’t know.
During dinner I had that moment I always wait for and fear won’t happen, where suddenly a book comes together. I wrote myself an email: Myrna knife. It’s the fun and also nerve-wracking part of being an improvisational writer. I keep thinking this time it won’t work, the little seeds my right brain has been planting won’t all come together. But, so far, so good.
And this morning I wrote possibly the most horrifying scene I’ve ever written. And I’ve written a few. I suppose people imagine writing scenes like that makes an author emotional or upset, but I always cackle happily and think, Yeah, this will fuck their brains real good. Heh heh heh.
I was starting to feel good about the election the last few days. The media seemed to be covering the obvious cognitive decline of Trump. Harris has a ton of cash, and appears to be using it well, and in general looks to be running a good campaign. And Trump has been as bad as normal, and certainly done nothing to help his campaign. Then today I see that virtually all the battlefield state polls have moved his way.
Nothing seems to matter. He outright says that he might use the National Guard and even the military against the “enemy within”, and his surrogates explain he didn’t mean it and laugh it off because he says lots of things he doesn’t mean. We have Elon Musk not even trying to bother hiding the fact that he is trying to buy the election and most of the country doesn’t realize it, and a lot who do just yawn. He’s a racist but so are his supporters.
Trump winning won’t affect me personally. My wife and I are what I would call middle class wealthy. Even with a health catastrophe we would easily weather it, we have lots of money, we both have pensions and social security, she is a retired teacher with great health insurance to supplement Medicare. My brothers are seriously wealthy, so money isn’t an issue. We’re white, so unless Trump/Vance/Musk go after the Jews we’re fine. We live in liberal areas, so maybe they’ll be a little less liberal.
The GOP will never bother people like us, that would hurt them politically. They’ll just periodically go after “them” to placate their supporters. They can point out to their people that live in cardboard boxes that “them” don’t even have the cardboard box to live in.
The GOP wants power, and the money that goes with it. And SCOTUS has legalized bribery so the sky’s the limit with the money.
Two things that bothers me the most are 1. Some people will really be hurt bad. If I were trans or had a trans child I would try to get out of the country. They will go hard after trans people because they hate them and they can. And their supporters don’t want them around at all, they really believe it’s a fad. #2, Is that Trump will not get his just deserts. I do believe in heaven and hell, but even that might not work. Trump might not make it into hell, even Satan has some standards.
@Scott:
From my experience around people who have been involved with the Criminal Legal System, I’d much rather spend time with them (including the formerly incarcerated folks) than Mr. Trump.
That said, this is an important news story for those of us who oppose any form of Felony disenfranchisement. There are typically two common arguments you hear for it: one’s moral (and takes a really narrow and incredibly punitive view) and the other one is political.
The political one, typically advanced by the right, is that if you give incarcerated folks and people who have completed their sentences the right to vote, they will always vote for the Democrats. This is similar to how the electoral college just ignores the incredibly larger numbers of Republicans who live in “Blue” states.
@Matt Bernius: Yes, I also believe the justice system should primarily be rehabilitative, not retributional.
@Lucysfootball: Well, in my experience, moral panics have a sell-by date. I’m a bit surprised the immigration moral panic hasn’t already receded. The trans thing will too. I think it’s past its peak.
Living in California, me and my daughter have a share of protection. Meanwhile, none of my tourist/travel dollars are going to be spent in Texas. Which is otherwise unfortunate, since I have a few places I quite like in Houston. And I have quite a few of those travel dollars.
@Jay L Gischer:
Hillary and Biden won Texas’s four most populous metro areas by 20+ points. Maybe the good people of Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio should not be abandoned over the rest of the state’s transgressions.
@DK: I have a particular issue. My daughter has been harassed by TSA at a Houston airport. She was made to miss her flight. She was groped. I will not subject her to that again, even for the sake of my other daughter, who lives there, and all those other great people I know in Houston. Abbot and Paxton won’t last forever, though, and we will eventually be able to go back.
@Scott: This doesn’t surprise me. I have a brother serving life without parole. Total Trump supporter. Like calls to like.
@Lucysfootball: the fact that Trump has a realistic possibility of winning is what is making me seriously look at other possibilities, and set some red lines for emigrating.
I’m sure the Jews in Germany were also convinced that their neighbors would never rise up against them, and that at some point people would protect them.
Anti-trans “LGB Alliance” gets a reminder that throwing trans people under the bus won’t save them from the fascists:
Anti-trans campaign group called ‘groomers’ after launching ‘LGB helpline’ for young people
Revealed: Trump ground game in key states flagged as potentially fake (The Guardian)
Ha. You mean a GOTV effort led by an conman with no campaign experience — on behalf of a candidate that’s a conman and grifter — is sputtering? Wow.
Could the once united Trump family be fading in this election?
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/19/trump-family-melania-don-jr-ivanka-election
@Lucysfootball: Yes. Some people will get hurt really bad. And people on this very site among other places were saying that because those people are only x% of the population that was okay. Winning the center has to be the goal.
No, Trump will not get his just desserts. He was never going to get them anymore than the architects of Abu Grabe were anyways. I can’t fix what’s broken with the country anymore than you can, though. Live your best life and know that when it all goes to hell on the first Wednesday in November you did what you could.
If you’re middle-class rich, consider doing more at the grassroots level to help where teh gubmint ain’t gonna no mo’.
@CSK:
Lololol
@DK: A swindling con artist (and only getting relative crumbs at that) cheated by other swindling con artists. “What a country you have.”
@DK:
@just nutha:
This is one case where the lessons of history might come in handy. Specifically when the Numidian king Jugurtha said of Rome, “A city for sale and doomed to quick destruction, if it should find a buyer.”
@Lucysfootball:
Has there ever been a wave of bigotry that didn’t eventually get around to going after the Jews?
The US attacks on the Native American nations is the only thing that leaps to mind, and I would not be surprised to learn that there was a fear of Jews somehow controlling the Native Americans.
@Gustopher: don’t the Mormons claim that Amerindians are the lost tribes of Israel?
@DK: Yes. This was predictable. Paid canvassers are strictly on the honor system and no real method to verify if the contact was made or just a furtive checkmark before you hit the bong 🙂
And grifters gonna grift.
@Michael Reynolds:
The kind of high level policy analysis I’ve become used to here. This ought to knock’m dead. Election over.
@Jack:
Oh fuck off, Drew. You’re a coward, a liar and a crashing bore on top of it.
I try not to be an Ugly American, I try to be culturally sensitive, but tonight we went to two casinos on the Promenade in Nice. Jesus H. Show passport to get in. Take off cap. Check bag. The guy ahead of us turned away because he was wearing sweatpants.
And what do they have inside? Slots and multi-games with a strong focus on roulette, which is fun, but not a game for gamblers. In the better of the two they had a room filled with nothing but alter kockers just sitting. Just… sitting. Like the day room at @Jack’s: nursing home. They were handing out donuts, FFS.
And the ATM didn’t work. One ATM. One. With a 90 Euro limit. The ATM limit in a Vegas casino is: your mortgage. Just sad stuff. Slightly better than the slots at an Albertson’s, and nowhere even close to Harry Reid airport. For shame, Froggies, for shame.
@Michael Reynolds: The ATM limit in a Vegas casino is: your mortgage.
With an 8% APR, and a sliding service charge of up to $100.
European casinos are places to lose your money quickly and leave. Cruise ship casinos are bad, but they look like Las Vegas compared to the casinos I’ve seen in England and Spain. My brother and SIL went to Monte Carlo and she said it was such a letdown from what she imagined. Maybe if she had run into Sean Connery in his white tux.
@Michael Reynolds: Never understood the appeal of gambling. Ok, certain forms of poker excepted, but games that, even if played perfectly, you are more likely to lose than not? Zero appeal. I understand I’m in the minority but it doesn’t change my complete befuddlement as to the attraction.
You know, for normal people, I should probably explain @Jack/Drew’s: tedious obsession with me. Many long years ago we used to both hang out at Dave’s Glittering Eye blog. Then, one day, Dave and I had a drink at the Four Seasons in Chicago, and later he mentioned that he found me surprisingly charming. Which was very kind. I thought the same about Dave. And then, he said in passing, that he thought in terms of raw IQ I was probably the smartest guy on his blog. Which was generous, because Dave is a very smart guy.
Well. Drew has never gotten over it. Since then, as the saying goes, I’ve had an HOA-free condo in his head.
Drew: you need to let it go. Sure I’m smarter and more charming and more accomplished and literally tens of thousands of people credit me with being a formative influence in their lives, and I have a great marriage to a very successful woman (with a great rack)(and legs), and I’m probably taller, more broad-shouldered and likely have a bigger dick, and I’m more interesting and wittier and have a cooler car, and I may even be richer, but. . . well. . . I’m bald. And you may still have your hair. So, there’s that.
Why do you try to dunk on me with words? Words? It’s like a drunk heckling a comedian. I’m a professional, FFS, you’re not gonna win. You want to beat me? Knowledge, my dude: know more than I do. Jesus Christ, I’m a High School drop-out, it should be easy. I am powerless against facts. Notice how I don’t pick fights with Matt on deep policy issues? Notice how I don’t argue with Steven on the form and function of government? Ever seen me argue medicine with steve or music with DeStijl, or or or with a dozen different people here? Figure it out.
@Lucysfootball:
Oh, great, now I have the Bond theme music in my head. Reynolds, Michael Reynolds. Yeah, that just doesn’t work.
No, Mr. Reynolds, I expect you to lose.
@MarkedMan:
I still overhear people talking about a system for beating the odds. Vegas also has a system. And they have a lot of very large, expensive properties paid for by guys with systems.
@Scott:
Tbis seems intuitively right to me.
Why wouldn’t incarcerated inmates support a career criminal like Trump, over a woman who served as a prosecutor and State Attorney General?
While looking up where the Seattle dump is (long broken recliner that was used as a cat bed needed to go away), I discovered the “Tillicum Parking Lot” and giggled because I am immature.
I expect some of you are also immature, so I share it with all of you.
@Michael Reynolds:
@Lucysfootball:
I’ve been to casinos only in Vegas and Mexico. My impression from hearing about reports of casinos elsewhere, is that there’s little of real quality outside Nevada, Atlantic City, and some of the bigger tribal casinos in the northeast.
In California, craps is played with cards. That’s an abomination.
@MarkedMan:
There is no way to beat the odds in the long term. In the short term, variance might yield a net win. the best bet for this is to pick games with a low house edge, like craps, full pay videopoker, or 3:2 blackjack.
There are ways of to make money gambling, but it’s not easy. Just about all casino games are negative expectation, from the gambler’s point of view. That is, the house has a built in edge in the payoff structure, by paying off less than full odds.
Excepting the odd positive expectation game (like full pay deuces wild videopoker; itself a dying breed), there’s counting cards in blackjack. This is not illegal, as far as I know, but the casinos tend to exercise the right to throw you out if they catch you doing it. It’s easy to spot a card counter, too, especially if the casino keeps track of the count.
The best way to make money gambling is to own a casino. The second best way is to teach advantage play, like card counting and how to milk the casino’s loyalty program playing low house edge videopoker. The third is to sell books or teach classes on how to beat the system. As noted, the system can’t be beat, so it’s dishonest to claim otherwise.
Last, some people do make a living playing poker. But that is really more of a game of skill than a random one.
@Kathy:
That’s the beginning and end for me. I’m going to lose money, and the gambling itself strikes me as ridiculous and tedious at best. I’m not judging anyone – I recognize that a huge percentage of people find it enjoyable.
I was recently in Portugal for work. After a series of (un)fortunate events, I found myself* at Casino Estoril — the largest casino in Europe. It has quite the history.
Quite the colorful crowd too. From what I understand, the demographics are similar to that of the real estate investors who’ve swamped the area in recent years.
Outside of the group I was with, I did not spy any obvious spies. Though I don’t trust my instincts on this anymore.
All in all, it was an Experience. A rather confronting one at that, given my temperament and tastes. I’m grateful for it.
And I will not be returning to a casino anytime soon. At least not in the active sense.
*The passive voice is key here, though I was not chemically altered.
I wonder whether anyone gets addicted to gambling if they’ve never won.
My experience with gambling many many years ago was carried out according to the instructions provided me by my friend:” decide how much you’re willing to lose, and when you reach that amount, quit.” I was in the Bahamas playing roulette at the local casino. Over the course of five rounds I lost my limit, and won nothing. Honestly, I don’t see the attraction.
@MarkedMan: As I guy who gambled with friends in Korea occasionally, I get the appeal. It’s social. We each throw in $50, we play Texas Hold ’em for 3 or so hours, we chat, we drink a little, I (usually) go home the big winner (because I tend to play tight and drink less) but mostly, nobody loses everything. It’s recreation.
I enjoyed it just as much in grad school playing for the change on my dresser. Casino gambling, cardrooms or clubs (which charge admission instead of taking a rake)? Not so much. Too expensive for my tastes. I DID enjoy working for the company that did charity Casino Nights for a living, though. I’d donate a hundred or two to a cause running one of those sometime given the opportunity.
ETA: “they have a lot of very large, expensive properties paid for by guys with systems.” I’ve been to Las Vegas once. Stayed a the Strat. Watched a video on the casino’s private cable channel. The professional gambler they were interviewing claimed that, in fact, most people win some money gambling in Vegas but that something like 80% of players lose their winnings by continuing to gamble after they’ve won.
Luddite’s grandmother always told him, “Keep your winnings in a separate pocket and leave when you’ve lost your stake.” Good advice.
@Grumpy realist:
Variable ratio schedule of reinforcement is key. Combined with unfortunately tuned neurobiology. Sprinkle in some illusion of mastery and an “I am special” mentality. All that’s left is opportunity — no longer much of a barrier.
Be thankful you don’t have this particular combination. I’ve worked with folks who do — it ain’t pretty.
@Gustopher: I was wondering if a person needed to be from somewhere else to get that but finally did (for whatever that’s worth). I guess it’s like “Norfolk & Western” from SNL when it was still funny (and I still had a sense for scatology).
@Grumpy realist: Roulette–exciting to watch, hard to win. (That’s why betting specific numbers pays 36:1.) But I did have a work friend who used to take the casino stake chips to the roulette table and split them between red and black to launder them into spendable (as opposed to only gamble-able) money. I don’t know whether casinos still allow that or even still give you free chips on a junket trip.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
poker between friends is a different category. Socializing, a little psychology, learning the odds, all that is different. When I play that way I usually win small, but if anyone at the table is losing enough to start getting mad I’m out and headed home. I also head home as soon as everyone is drunk enough that they want to play games with lots of wild cards or ones involving holding cards on your head, or ones that are pure luck.
@MarkedMan:
I see it as a diversion and amusement. Like going to a game or the movies or a play. You don’t expect to walk out of a stadium with more money than you came in with, do you? I don’t expect it at a casino, either. That’s why setting limits is important.
That said, the D in downtown Vegas had a nickel full pay deuces wild videopoker machine. The return was like 100.76% with perfect strategy, a bit less with simple strategy. Over three trips, I estimate I won around $600 from it. I hear since my last visit in 2015 it’s been removed.
The nice thing is you could play it for an hour or two with only a $20 stake.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
These days you’re probably more likely to get free slot credit. Laundering that is a bit more difficult. I think slots don’t allow you to cash out until you run through the full free credit amount.
Betting red and black in roulette is not risk free, as you can lose if 0 or 00 hit. Since it’s negative expectation, I assume it’s allowed.
This American Life did an interesting show about card counting in blackjack.
https://www.thisamericanlife.org/466/transcript
@MarkedMan:
Long ago we used to play poker for ridiculously low stakes. about $5 per person per night. It was about the game and having a good time, not about money. It’s amazing how excited people can get if the pot goes as high as $1.50.
We rotated who dealt, and that person chose the game. One time I declared pairs are wild. We all had a hell of a time deciding what hand we had 🙂 I claimed that 3, 3, J, Q, A with the last three cards suited was a royal flush. This led to a long argument. We never tried wild pairs again.
Just in case y’all are wondering about the big news in Wyoming is today…..it’s not Kamala making all our cattle magically disappear. 😛
https://cowboystatedaily.com/2024/10/19/wapiti-tortoise-escapes-makes-it-a-mile-uphill-before-jailbreak-is-discovered/?fbclid=IwY2xjawGBOK9leHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHczd9lMuFITIrMhWqDee-e9F37M87C3LK9483xg-mRVa0KvEG8m83ALuhw_aem_sUT35wdp3eDpsYOtYX1eIQ
Boeing made an offer to the machinists to end the strike. Union members will vote on it next Wednesday.
There’s no info past the offer to raise wages 35% over, I assume, 3-4 years.
Bridge was always a more interesting game than poker. 🙂
@Michael Reynolds:
Ah, for the days when gambling in France was somehow alluring.
My father had an amusing story about flying over to Deauville in 1949(?) with some pals in a trio of de Havilland biplanes, getting drunk on champagne courtesy of a Tory MP and some ladies of negotiable virtue, and just about breaking even on baccarat in the casino.
Then going swimming in the Channel at midnight. etc, etc.
Can be a bit teenage angst inducing, growing up thinking you’re never going to be either as cool, or as tough, as your Dad.
Lol.
@Michael Reynolds:
And, I suspect, some small, inexpensive, properties out in the desert for those whose systems did work.
Distantly related: I recall an interesting tale from some years ago about how Howard Hughes was deniably used (hey, it rhymes!) by US authorities to push the Mob out from their dominant position in Las Vegas into a tolerable subordinate status.
Moral of the story being: don’t bet on Maf vs ex-OSS.
@JohnSF:
I don’t LOL often, but that did it. The sheer Englishness of it. But, “Pals?” Surely you mean, “Chaps.”