Saturday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Saturday, February 15, 2025
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56 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on
Twitter and/or
BlueSky.
Mass layoffs at US nuclear weapons agency paused (ABC News)
Trump officials fired nuclear staff not realizing they oversee the country’s weapons stockpile, sources say (CNN)
US nuclear weapons agency hit by layoffs after DOGE exemption denied (USA Today)
Energy Department scrambles to rehire nuclear bomb experts fired in major DOGE screw up: Reports (The Independent)
The kind of dangerous chaos that erupts when experienced, conscientious woke DEI hires are replaced with unqualified Republican narcissists and Trump cultists.
Reckless incompetence is no way to manage national security.
VP Vance lectured our European allies on how they should run their countries – by inviting into government the far-right and far-left (yeah, sure, Vance) political parties who represent what voters want. Worth reading the whole CNN article because wowza is Vance an idiot.
“The audience at the Munich Security Conference was expecting to hear about the Trump administration’s plans to end the war in Ukraine, but instead were treated to a bombastic rejection of liberal orthodoxies that have prevailed in Western Europe since the Second World War, in a speech that downplayed the threats to the continent posed by Russia and China.
““The threat that I worry most about vis-a-vis Europe is not Russia, not China, it’s not any other external actor. What I worry about is the threat from within, the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values,” Vance told a stone-faced audience.
“The vice president…said “shutting down” unorthodox viewpoints is the “most surefire way to destroy democracy,” and called on European leaders – who have been elected by their respective peoples – to “embrace what your people tell you.”
Sidenote: I don’t think Vance, Trump et al realize that our influence on our allies is melting like snow in July as our government leaders continue to screw up. And don’t kid yourself, European leaders are very aware of what Trump’s doing back home right now – and it’s not inviting alternate voices into his government.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/14/europe/jd-vance-munich-speech-europe-voters-intl/index.html
@DK:
Apparently Elmo also posted classified info on the easily hacked DOGE website.
@Not the IT Dept.:
“Influence on our allies” is likely very low priority with Vance, he was there to generate sound bites that would play well on conservative media to the red hat yahoos.
Meeting Alice Weidel was about impressing his Administration’s leaders back home, Trump and Musk especially. Plus, clearly, Vance’s own beliefs.
@charontwo:
From what I see, the red hatters are none-to-pleased about Vance’s “US troops to Ukraine” trial balloon.
Zelensky has upset the apple cart by doing his best Don Corleone.
@Not the IT Dept.: I saw that, and it’s just almost unbelievable.
I get the strong sense that Vance, Trump, and even Musk have an overinflated view of the role the US plays. We are big, yes. But the more we train others to ignore us, the better they will get at going around us, going it alone, finding other paths and routes.
If these fake Christians ever picked up the Bible, they would come across a proverb that reads, “pride goeth before the fall.” We are big, but not invincible, and it’s unwise to act as such–particularly when Musk is doing his best to destabilize us from within.
Another part that worries me is that Trump’s staff/handlers are treating him the same way Reagan and Fred Trump were treated in their later years — due to advanced dementia. Fake office, sign anything, etc etc.
These are the very rural counties west of Lubbock. They are lucky Texas Tech has a major medical school. This is the congressional district of Dr Ronny Jackson, the reputed drug pusher of White House fame.
Measles outbreak in West Texas worsens
…
…
@Not the IT Dept.:
This is what I woke up to in Germany.
“We respect the presidential and congressional elections in the USA and expect the USA to do the same here,” said the Union parties’ candidate for chancellor.“
“That is not appropriate – especially not among friends and allies.”
This is what Friedrich Merz, said after Vance’s remarks. It is worth noting, that this man is most probably going to become Germany’ Chancellor after the elections next week.
https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2025-02/einmischung-bundestagswahl-usa-friedrich-merz-muenchner-sicherheitskonferenz
Also, the speech from the German President.
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier:
“It is clear that the new American administration holds a world view that is very different from our own. One that shows no regard for established rules, for partnerships that have grown over a long time.”
https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1890488351628599670?s=46
@Min: It’s deeply, deeply embarrassing. I lived in West Germany for a time, in Bonn. I loved living there, and have many fond memories. As I said above, I think that Vance & Co. are way overestimating the US’s standing in the world. It takes very little time to ruin a reputation. I think Zelenskyy is correct that it’s time to build an Armed Forces of Europe.
@Min:
Yup. Back to the future, for sure, but the countries have switched sides.
My question is: since it’s safe to assume that America just isn’t going to be there anymore, is Germany willing to take over the leadership of the free world? At least as far as supporting Ukraine all the way to a win or at least a draw?
@Not the IT Dept.:
Wasn’t this the same day the White House banned one of the most prominent news organizations from all press briefings because the organization wouldn’t use Trump’s idiotic renaming of the Gulf of Mexico in its reporting?
@Mikey:..“The vice president…said “shutting down” unorthodox viewpoints is the “most surefire way to destroy democracy,”
Word is out that one of the first productions at the newly renamed Zeppelinfeld Center will include this anthem of our Dear Leaders.
Tomorrow Belongs to Me
@Gavin:
Or a more recent example.
The Florida headline of the day- Florida boy left permanently disfigured after being wrapped in tape by dad
@Bill Jempty: Good point. That’s great – “we’ve never seen a decline in mental capacity like this since Reagan”. That was four days ago, five days ago man.
@Jen:
Lovely city, Bonn.
And I also think Trump and Vance are overestimating how much Europeans will accept.
@Not the IT Dept.:
The coming election in Germany will certainly decide that. I don’t think Scholz has plans to change much, but I also don’t think he will continue as the head of the government.
Merz, well… he wants Germany to become a country, the Germans will be proud of. How that will shape the European political landscape, I’m not sure. But I think it’ll be a change to Scholz reluctance to take charge.
@Not the IT Dept.:
JD Vance is a hollow man; a thin veneer of words honed from his time as an Army PR guy, and a “self-directed” track at Yale, but devoid of substance. He was waiting to be filled up with the chauvinistic notions of Thiel and whichever influencer that led him into the Catholic Church —– from which he appropriates “gravitas” (devoid of substance) for the “crusade” he carries out at the behest of his benefactors. He is a kept man, fed a career path in return for deeds.
@Mister Bluster:
I think it’s more likely to be renamed the Trump Center for the Performing Arts, don’t you?
@CSK:..
I suspect it depends on how eager Chump is to dance for his puppet master.
Hint: Trumpster movement misread the room on substance while garnering voters on style. Trump voters went with their gut.
(Check out the graphic)
@Mister Bluster:
Musk probably knows that the best way to keep Trump happy, content, and muzzled is by letting him rename things after himself.
@Rob1:
Popular belief is that NASA takes 25% of the federal budget, and foreign aid around 30%.
Try to imagine how different the world would be if the US spent about $2 trillion in foreign aid, and $1.75 trillion on NASA. We’d see things like refugees from wars and civil strife terraforming Mars and Titan.
@Rob1:
Nice! Vance is indeed hollow. Actual beliefs are often an impediment to personal success.
—
I responded to your post on yesterday’s open thread. I was just waking up. Cobwebs uncleared. So I’m going to port a more thorough response here.
I don’t think we much much a disagreement here. I suspect that I may have been a bit unclear. I know human behavior is complex.
But I’m still not sure that the third possibility answers the point I was making. It seems it just reinforces that the original argument, “equality of opportunity, not equity” is not a workable position, as those who argue it never really provide an alternative.
Moreover, the specific phrasing used that I responded to was a more extreme version of that, one that is common among the reactionary crowd–that equity is immoral. I can only guess as to the reason the person who wrote it believes it. I imagine that many who agree are working off the makers vs takers framing. But again, I don’t know. And from what I have seen, they are silent how we can measure equality of opportunity without statistical analysis of outcomes. Thus, it seems fair from my viewpoint to attach to them the inferiority belief.
As an aside, I think this is one reason why ‘race realism’ and ‘human biodiversity’ arguments took root among certain groups. It was an attempt to soften bigotry via ‘not inferior, just different’. But that’s rationalization more than anything imo.
I don’t think you were here at the time, but I’ve written several posts about the difficulty and potential danger of applying the scientific method to the studies of social structures. So yes, I know that the measures are approximate and their accuracy is questionable. I have been accused of approaching science denialism in another forum. (The criticism was incorrect, I never said we should not study it, rather my point was that we should exercise caution when attempting to draw sweeping conclusions.)
So, my point dovetails with yours, right? That short of an alternative to measuring equality of opportunity via analysis of equity, we have to accept that perfect is the enemy of good.
I think I should make one last point. This conversation, and the question of the subset of equality not equity crowd who run to my #2 possibility is exactly why CRT exists in law, and broadly why the concept of structural racism has been interrogated.
Those are critiques of ‘colorblind’ policy.
Just wanted to clarify my original post.
Would he have said the same thing to European nations in 1932? Probably.
This administration is preparing sell out Ukraine.
@Kurtz: Thank you. Some clarification is in order on my part: the 3rd possibility that I raised referenced not the measurements of a policy’s efficacy (your possibility #1) but the actual assumptions that initially went into crafting that policy. And that assumes an entirely different, prior set of data collection and analysis.
Failure can happen anywhere along the line.
The process of initially defining an issue, and then crafting the data collection/measurement to test theory, is particularly tricky, because it is the part of the process that can inject a larger amount of bias that then plays out down the line as studies transform into policy programs. But, that is why continual measurement and scrutiny are essential to a robust scientific process. The denier crowd blows past this important detail of scientific methodology — good science tests itself. Self-critique isn’t the end of a conversation, it’s furtherance of the dialogue.
Just because some bias is subsequently revealed through the necessary ongoing feedback/analysis loop, they seize on the opportunity to chuck out bathwater and baby. The nuance of a feedback loop is irrelevant to their ideological reduction.
Re: the “equality not equity” and “race realism” positions —- I’ve always viewed these gambits for the dodge they serve. The bigots are boning up on rhetorical flourish. With this they break down our society’s resolve for that which is just.
@Rob1:
Agreed on all counts. Thank you. Your clarification helped.
Who knew science, social or natural, could be so hard? Who knew public policy could be so hard?
As a diversion from the gloom of the end-stage of America’s decay*, here’s a literary problem.
Imagine an interstellar human society not connected to Earth at all (long backstory) where the majority of the population are people of color, and whites are a minority. This is not that different form today’s world as regards skin color, but in my imaginary setting whites are not the dominant group.
If my protagonist, a trans woman named Leeta, is white and she performs a heroic deed that blows up but then resolves a political crisis, am I doing a white savior story?
It definitely felt that way earlier today when I was thinking of a scene, where her love interest muses on her exotic looks.
There’s no particular reason for Leeta to be white, other than that’s how I imagined her when I began making this story up. I tend to imagine how my protagonist looks, but everyone else tends to be generic human (if they are human).
@Mikey:
I may have just woken up, but I’m pretty sure that Vance, Musk and the gang are those unorthodox viewpoints. No snark. I think that’s how they see themselves.
And democracy is only democracy if it results in the same unorthodox viewpoints being enabled everywhere.
@Gustopher: Is there room in a democracy for “unorthodox” viewpoints that advocate an end to that democracy and aggregation of power into their hands? This is what we are witnessing before our very eyes. The coder-gamers are exploiting an “open port.”
The Trump administration wants to re-hire some nuclear safety workers, but can’t seem to figure out how to locate them.Winning!!!!
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/trump-administration-wants-un-fire-nuclear-safety-workers-cant-figure-rcna192345
@Rob1:
It’s Karl Popper’s Paradox of Tolerance, a tolerant society cannot tolerate intolerance, which will destroy the tolerant society.
@CSK: I saw a comment on Bluesky in response to that, which said something along the lines of “I’ve seen junior high student councils run with more efficiency and less drama than this workforce reduction.”
It’s all so very stupid.
I hope they are all negotiating a tripling of their salaries.
A question on tariffs:
How do the mechanics work? Who pays the tariff, to whom? How is the amount of tariff owed determined? At what point in time in the import process is the calculation made? At what point is it paid?
I’m having trouble picturing an implementation that would not be insanely expensive to administer. (And has Trusk yet fired the people who would collect the tariffs?)
This quote attributed to Napoleon is going to be Trump’s out for every crime he commits: “He who saves his country does not violate any law.”
He’s blasting that all over social media today.
“JPEG”
Leopard, face.
@DrDaveT:
In Mexico, you have paperwork with the shipment which gets reviewed by customs. For frequent importers, hiring a customs agency to deal with that is useful. Depending on what the paperwork states as to where it came from, what the thing is, where it was made, what the content of materials is, and lots more, customs may assess an import tax which depends on current trade laws and regulations, many as established through trade agreements or treaties. The money is paid to the government through customs.
Even imports not subject to tariffs go through this process.
The above is highly simplified. There are exceptions, exemptions, limits, and other things. Sometimes the paperwork can get in ahead of the shipment, to expedite matters. That’s one area where having a customs agent is useful.
The tariff is paid directly by the importer. The cost of the tariff usually is factored in the cost of the item, material, or whatever it is one imports. So say some amount of fabric is worth $100 and has a 5% tariff. The importer, who let’s say plans to make clothes with the fabric, calculates a cost of $105 for that amount of fabric. So that’s built into what the manufacturer will charge stores, and what they’ll charge you.
@charontwo: Nice find!
@al Ameda:
Vance gave a campaign speech at an international security meeting. Vance seems stuck in campaign mode and that may well be, in the area of international relations anyway, his intellectual limit.
Why Trump gave Musk the task of running the country and not Vance is becoming apparent. There seems to be a clear difference in bandwidth between those two men, clear enough that even Trump can see it.
@Not the IT Dept.: ]
@Jen:
Vance has stepped over a line.
Admonishing Europe about defence spending is one thing.
Instructing Europe, as if it were a bunch of subordinates, to coddle the techbros and embrace the far right is entirely another.
FYATHYRIO.
And Trump declares:
He might care to look up what happened to the person who first said that.
It did not end well him.
(Napoleon Bonaparte, to save googlery,)
Hold on. Is Trump really trying to extort Ukraine for rare earth metals? Holy shit!
Does he not understand how shitty that makes him look? Guess not.
@de stijl: He’s a convicted rapist who thinks of Gaza as a real estate opportunity…..you know, after the rubble is cleared and the people are displaced, AFTER the United States Taxpayers have paid for it, then he can slap a Trump Tower on top of the resort.
The man has no shame. It’s going to be a very long four years, and the USA will come out much weaker for it.
For some reason youtube keeps pushing right wing videos on me. Been getting videos from Matt Walsh and other types being suggested constantly. I’m impressed in all the wrong ways how many woman hating videos I’ve been getting suggested too. Like why does youtube suddenly think I’m totally about the MGTOW life and such?? I keep telling youtube that I’m not interested and to stop suggesting those channels and it just keep suggesting worse stuff..
@de stijl: My reading is that Zelenskyy broached the subject in an attempt to appeal to Trump’s transactional soul. However it was as a guarantee of preferential treatment for the US. It came back to him as a proposal to give it away for nothing.
Zelenskyy has learned that any gesture suggesting weakness is liable to be responded to with a demand for greater weakness from this man.
Resist!
This doesn’t have to be the crappiest timeline. Push back!
Exhaust the judicial system. All legal remedies. Then, consider rioting.
@de stijl: I think there are lawyers who are doing just that, Democracy Docket springs to mind. Our only hope is the judicial system and the judges. And the smart lawyers who can gather together the people who have standing who have been wrongfully terminated.
But what good are the laws if President Musk says he’s above them?
@de stijl:
He may be disappointed in that regard. lol.
@de stijl:
In the so-called “Victory Plan” that Zelensky presented to Biden, Harris, Trump et al. last October, Zelensky floated the idea of trading Ukrainian resources for security guarantees.
Zelensky is no fool. He realizes Trump relishes “dealmaking.” The idea is at least partially responsible for Trump’s mixed messages recently. He has a natural subservience to Putin, but Putin only offered Mark Fogel. Meh. Zelensky is offering 21st century jewels. Trump’s interest is piqued.
Zelensky might as well offer Trump a 70% stake in Ukrainian rare mineral deposits, a Trump-branded Black Sea Riviera, and a Trump statue in Kyiv in exchange for a US air base, military air cover, and public support for Ukranian EU membership. Trump could hardly resist.
In Europe, the fuses have been lit.
Macron calls an emergency summit in Paris.
UK is invited. That invite is a tell.
It’s about security, and it’s serious.
Incidentally, mainstream Germany is generally about as mad as to chew granite and shit gravel.
JDV snuggles with AfD have not been appreciated.
Least of all by the main conservative parties, CDU/CSU (or the Free Democrats, who are a bit of an odd duck in US terms: genuine classical liberals)
@DK:
The genius part of this offer is that the rare earth resources are largely in the parts of Ukraine currently occupied by Russia, so the deal costs Ukraine nothing unless Trump is willing to back them to the point of being able to fully reclaim their original borders
@Stormy Dragon: Zelensky is way smarter and tougher than Trump or Musk.
@Jax:
Zelensky is hardcore.
It’s a thing how sometimes the man and the times come together.
But a lot of other European leaders could eat Trump or Musk for breakfast and spit out the bones.
Macron, Starmer, Merz, Tusk in particular, von der Leyen, Meloni (she may be a rightist, but she’s both a patriot and an operator), Kallas, etc etc.
Trump and Musk strut because they feel empowered.
Pride cometh before a fall.
@de stijl:
Counter-flood the zone!
@JohnSF: lol, that might backfire spectacularly and tbh, it would be what he deserves.