Shutdown Winding Down?
The light at the end of the tunnel is a train.
On All Hallows Eve, parts of the federal government remain shut down for the 30th day. We will almost certainly break the record of 34 days, since the Senate adjourned yesterday without a vote and will not be back in session until Monday afternoon—a pattern they have followed every weekend since the shutdown began. The House, naturally, went into recess before the shutdown started and has not returned.
Still, there is mounting pressure on both sides to get the government back open and funds flowing.
The latest polling shows that, despite the shutdown being caused by a Democratic filibuster, Republicans are getting the blame for the impasse:
More Americans blame President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress than Democrats for the nearly month-long government shutdown, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll.
More than 4 in 10 U.S. adults — 45 percent — say Trump and the GOP are mainly responsible for the shutdown that may lead the government to cut off anti-hunger benefits, has caused air traffic delays and has furloughed hundreds of thousands of federal workers.
Yet the share saying Democrats are at fault has grown slightly, from 30 percent in a Post flash poll when the shutdown began to 33 percent in the latest poll. Among registered voters, 37 percent now blame Democrats, while 46 percent blame Republicans.
Americans are generally worried about shuttered government agencies, the poll found. Three-quarters of U.S. adults say they are “very” or “somewhat concerned” about the shutdown, including 87 percent of voters who described themselves as “liberal” and 62 percent of those who said they are “conservative.”
Meanwhile, labor unions, including the major public employee unions, are pressuring Democrats to fold:
Democrats’ already fraying alliance with organized labor is coming under new strain as a growing list of union leaders calls on the party to accept a Republican bill that would reopen the government.
Why it matters: Once it would have been virtually unthinkable for so many unions to break so decisively with their long-time Democratic compatriots in such a highly charged national fight. Not anymore. Now five unions have called on Senate Democrats to change their position and vote to reopen the government.
Trump has made major inroads for Republicans with rank-and-file union members, even getting the Teamsters to stay neutral in last year’s presidential election. Despite Trump’s generally anti-union record, he picked a labor secretary supported by the Teamsters president Sean O’Brien and has gotten union backing for some of his trade policies.
Driving the news: The White House on Thursday night released a video to social media in which the presidents of the Southwest Airlines Pilots Association, Allied Pilots Association and National Air Traffic Controllers Association endorse Republicans’ stopgap government funding bill.
[…]
O’Brien, speaking outside the White House on Thursday, also called for Democrats to “pass a clean CR” and “not put working people in the middle of a problem.”
The American Federation of Government Employees, the country’s largest union of federal workers and a typically reliable ally to Democrats, called to pass a clean CR earlier this week as well. “I represent Democrats, and I represent Republicans. I represent independents,” AFGE president Everett Kelley told Politico. “I don’t feel like I owe anybody.”
There is increased chatter about Senators actually talking to one another across the aisle to forge some kind of compromise.
A key GOP appropriator spoke with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer Tuesday and again Thursday in rare bipartisan conversations involving the top Democrat as rank-and-file senators hunt for ways to end the 30-day government shutdown.
Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.), who chairs the Appropriations subcommittee on Homeland Security, confirmed she spoke to Schumer about “wanting to lay the foundation for us to be able to do our appropriations work.”
[…]
Schumer did not respond to multiple questions Thursday about the funding talks. But rank-and-file Democrats who are involved are privately feeling cautiously optimistic about finding a path out of the shutdown as soon as next week, according to a person granted anonymity to disclose private discussions.
Meanwhile, President Trump is urging Senate Republicans to go nuclear:
President Donald Trump on Thursday urged Republicans to end the filibuster in order to end the monthlong government shutdown.
In a late-night Truth Social post, Trump noted that Democrats had tried to eliminate the Senate procedure when they had control of both chambers of Congress and the White House during the Biden administration, but then-Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema — both of whom have since left the Democratic Party to become independents — helped block the effort.
[…]
“The one question that kept coming up, however, was how did the Democrats SHUT DOWN the United States of America, and why did the powerful Republicans allow them to do it?” Trump wrote. “The fact is, in flying back, I thought a great deal about that question, WHY?”
Trump added that Republicans, who now hold control of Congress and the White House, should play their “Trump card” and go for the “nuclear option.”
“Get rid of the Filibuster, and get rid of it, NOW!” he wrote.
Trump added that Democrats “fought so hard” to end the filibuster under Biden but failed. Now, he argued, Republicans should abolish the procedure to advance their own agenda and end the shutdown.
“[I]f we did what we should be doing, it would immediately end this ridiculous, country-destroying shutdown,” Trump said.
Politically, ending the standoff remains challenging because one or both parties are going to have to do something they could have done a month ago:
- While I doubt Republicans will end the filibuster—too many institutionalists in both parties fear giving a slim majority held by the other party absolute power—it’s totally within their power to do at any time. If they decide to do so to end the shutdown, voters will rightly ask why they waited so long.
- Democrats could do what the unions are demanding and vote for a clean CR. But that has been the Republican position from the beginning. If they cave, voters will reightly ask why they waited so long.
- Republicans could budge of ACA subsidies. But, well, you get the idea.
It’s also worth noting that these shutdowns can go on so long only because they’re mostly fake. Most of the government remains open.
Roughly 60 percent of the budget is mandatory spending, with Medicare, Social Security, pensions for retired military and civil service personnel, veterans’ benefits, and interest on the national debt accounting for the bulk of this expenditure. Those checks go out during a shutdown.
Additionally, the military, law enforcement, air traffic control, and all manner of other functions deemed essential keep on operating, if at somewhat reduced capacity. In past shutdowns, the Defense Department was funded, so uniformed personnel and civil servants alike got paid. This time, none of the budgets have passed, but the administration has reallocated funds to pay the troops and law enforcement personnel.
My wife and I were initially furloughed. But there was only so long our offices could function without our services, so we’ve been called back. The only sense, then, in which we are “shut down” is that we’re working without pay.
Regardless, we’re at the point where people other than federal employees are going to feel the pain. I strongly suspect the stalemate will end before the next military paycheck is due on the 15th.
It looks like it is going to unwind with the Democratic party looking like that actually have some strength and grit. If the Republicans decide to work across the isle or if they eliminate the filibuster, then the Dems unity pays off. A special thanks to federal workers who had to endure.
Worth keeping in mind that the CR the Senate hasn’t voted on only extends spending authority through Nov 21. We may get to go through this again, soon.
@Michael Cain: I strongly suspect that whatever deal gets worked out will kick the can further down the road—at least to February. Nobody wants a shutdown over the holidays.
Note the date. First time in his second term, I support what POTUS wants to do.
Just a note: what good are unions if they don’t treat a government shutdown like a strike? Unless unions have become profit driven empty suits, then they should be subsidizing workers during the shutdown, and get paid back when the shutdown ends.
No doubt that the MAGAt’s, who are incapable of governing, will get rid of the filibuster. And of course Fatso is encouraging it.
No matter what you think of the filibuster, getting rid of it is indicative of MAGA’s incompetence.
In 2017 Trump also called for ending the filibuster, but he was ignored by Republican leadership in the Senate. They also ignored the pleas of Ted Cruz and others calling for them to ignore the restrictions of the Senate parliamentarian.
Part of the reason I think they kept it was that they found reconciliation a useful way of getting their priorities passed. It allowed them to defund the ACA (even though their attempts at this mostly failed) without directly dismantling it, which was a way of avoiding harm to the insurance companies and medical industry. It also enabled them to pass their tax bill, the legislation they cared about most.
Ever since it was first adopted in the 1970s, reconciliation has been more of a benefit to Republicans than Democrats, because it helps them achieve most of their legislative goals (primarily cutting taxes, but also slashing the budget for social programs), whereas the Democratic agenda involves structural reform that’s hard to pass through this loophole.
Of course the leadership now is more radical than it was back in 2017, and more receptive to Trump’s demands. I do think there is a nontrivial chance they will scrap the filibuster some time between now and the end of 2026. The main reason I think they aren’t doing so at the moment is that they think they have the advantage in the shutdown fight.
@Scott F.: Yep, same. With Trump supporting it the filibuster could end. GOP has power and control to do it and if Trump is adamant about doing it, not one would dare block it, or they would suffer the potential wrath of their master. Let me get my popcorn and let us see what unfolds.
@Kylopod:
This sounds about right. The republican leadership in the Senate may want to appear to stand for the filibuster and its principle of fostering consensus and even bipartisanship, but in practice they have not been willing to engage in meaningful negotiation outside their party. They may need to feel political consequences before doing so, or just say screw it and scrap the filibuster.
@HelloWorld: Federal unions, rightly so, aren’t unions in the fullest sense. It’s illegal, rightly so, for federal workers to strike. We saw this most clearly during the 1981 air traffic controllers’ strike, when Reagan fired those who refused to return to work within 48 hours.
Defense civilians aren’t even authorized to unionize. I gather those in other parts of the government that are allowed to do so mostly get some broader contractual protections and representation during adverse personnel actions.
@James Joyner: To get beyond Nov 21, the House will have to come back, which should be interesting.
@Michael Cain:
When the House is back maybe they’ll officially name the Epstein Ballroom.
@Daryl:
Wouldn’t naming the Epstein Ballroom the Epstein Ballroom be kind of futile and redundant?
@James Joyner:
Firing the ATCs en masse is one reason there’s an ATC staffing problem today. A lot of those hired in 81 have been retiring in the past few years. Seeing as how many came into the job at the same time, this is perfectly logical and should have been foreseen.
I can’t find much info online, but I understand several countries in Europe allow their armed forces to unionize. And they still function.
@James Joyner: Thanks, I did not know that and agree it makes sense to some degree. But the federal unions could subsidize pay during the shutdown?
@HelloWorld: Since wages and benefits are set by statute, there’s not all that much for the unions to bargain over. So, my guess is that dues are quite modest and not such that they could develop a war chest. Plus, this is only the second shutdown that has lasted as long as a month.