Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on Twitter and/or BlueSky.
Going to be a long night…
“South Korean military officials say martial law will remain in place until President Yoon Suk Yeol lifts it himself, despite parliament’s majority vote against it, according to local media outlet YTN.”
Then again, rumors are to be expected in fast moving events.
South Korean military leaders say the martial law will remain in place until President Yoon Suk Yeol lifts it himself despite parliament’s vote to rescind it. Demonstrations banned.
But loads of people are coming out to protest the coup attempt.
Moreover, nobody expects this to succeed, it seems.
Two things I’ve read recently come to mind. In End Times, Peter Turchin claims to see recurring patterns of stability and instability in societies. He notes a sort of societal inertia by which societies tend to revert to form. Russia is the prime example. After World War and revolution, and after collapse and Perestroika, it reverts to authoritarianism. SK has some mixed history.
On the positive side, Kurt Weyland, in Democracy’s Resilience, claims that presidential systems, such as South Korea and the United States, with division of powers and multiple veto points, have proven to be more resistant to authoritarianism than parliamentary systems. He claims as a general rule that in a parliamentary system a populist PM needs to overcome a crisis to gain the popular support needed to take over, but in a presidential system the prez needs to overcome two crises. I don’t follow South Korean politics, but the claimed crisis seems only to be election of an opposition majority in parliament. And the apparently massive response implies the populace don’t see that as a crisis. As an aside, WIKI says impeachment and removal requires a 2/3 vote of the National Assembly.
I’m hoping to see signs the military are doing nothing except maybe crowd control and are just being legalistic in saying the prez must end the declaration of martial law. Given China and NK, SK is kinda important.
President Yoon Suk Yeol said he would pull the order hours after South Korea’s National Assembly voted to halt it. Thousands of protesters took to the streets in Seoul, demanding that the president resign.
WTF was he thinking? A made up front story about a NK incursion, easily shot down. Didn’t inform his own party. Most analysts saying it’s political suicide. What pushed him over the edge?
@Michael Reynolds: To the extent that I remember the saga of Mme President Park, they go to jail.
Of course, Park Geun-hye’s main crime was financial, so it was more significant. That may have resulted it a more severe penalty than simply trampling on the rights of the people.
@just nutha:
Upcoming resignation, and clemency on the basis of temporary mental crisis?
I can’t see a President having a shred of credibility after this sort of of malarkey.
Looks like both his own party, and likely the military command, told him to stop acting like a damn fool.
Though, as I know damn-all about Korean politics, that’s just my ill-informed guess.
STRIKE
Beyond my meager knowledge of Korea, but a big trade union confederation – The Korean Confederation of Trade Unions – has announced a general strike until the president resigns.
Paul Campos at LGM attributes this to “a friend” without a link, but it’s better info than I’ve seen elsewhere so far. And some of it sounds familiar.
PPP openly appealed to incels (“idaenam”) even installing a vituperative, combative 32 year old incel as their Party spokesperson and a 36 year old incel as Party Leader. They ran a hyper-male focused campaign that ended up creating one of the craziest youth vote splits ever. 18-29 year old men voted 59%-36% for Yoon, 18-29 year old women voted 58%-34% for Lee (the center-left guy). What’s crazy is that there was no gender split above 39 years old. As in, men 40-49 voted Lee 61%-35%, women 40-49 voted Lee 60%-36%.
…
All that combined with influence peddling scandals involving his wife and family members have caused Yoon’s approval rating to crater. When the April 2024 legislative elections occurred, his net approval rating average was -48 , as in 25% approved, 73% disapproved. With that backdrop, the PPP stunk it up in the legislative election, and the center left Democratic Party kept an outright majority (173/300 seats).
…
And then….today Yoon snapped, imposing martial law against the will of his own Party (the entire legislature voted against it) and the country (a snap poll has it supported by 6%, opposed by 82%).
I’d been curious about the vote. Was it just his opposition? Sounds like it was everybody who could get there and get into the building.
South Korea has accidentally done us all a favor. Steve Bannon is having sad feels. The reputed global march to authoritarianism has hit a bump. Bravo to the people and the Parliament of South Korea.
If I had to score this coup on a scale of 1-10, with 1 being Yukio Mishima–gay ultra-right literary genius bodybuilder attempts to overthrow government and is laughed at by a very confused army–and 10 being Pinochet, I’d give it a 2.5.
PPP openly appealed to incels (“idaenam”) even installing a vituperative, combative 32 year old incel as their Party spokesperson and a 36 year old incel as Party Leader. They ran a hyper-male focused campaign that ended up creating one of the craziest youth vote splits ever.
I do not understand why incels would appeal to anyone, let alone young men. Isn’t the definition of incels that they aren’t appealing?
Offered a choice between the Leopards Eating People’s Faces Party and the Ain’t Gettin’ None, Really Angry About It, And Making It Everyone Else’s Problem Party, I would be voting Leopard every time.
Also, my last words might be “Pss, Pss, Pss, Good Kitty.” Call is a Pss Kink, if you have to.
The 4B name stems from four Korean words beginning with “bi” (meaning “no”): bihon (no marriage), bichulsan (no childbirth), biyeonae (no dating), and bisekseu (no sex). As with past “separatist” feminist movements, 4B represents a rejection of heterosexual relationships as a means of resisting patriarchal structures.
@Scott: Well, that was interesting. I have such mixed feelings about it. On the one hand, nobody is forced to have sex at all. And if they want to withhold sex, or publicly claim that they are withholding sex, they get to. I can appreciate that SK may well still be very patriarchal and that some women will find that oppressive.
So, more power to them.
Then there’s the transphobia that goes with this, by reports. I’m not such a big fan.
And finally the headline, that begins “As 4b takes the world by storm”. If 4b is taking the world by storm, I’m not seeing it.
One of the most important life lessons I learned is that while they may not be quite as interested in sex as men are, women still are very, very interested in sex. Furthermore, a movement that got a few hundred thousand views on US TikTok doesn’t strike me as something that is “taking the world by storm”.
Again, women can and should seek out relationships that are satisfying, equal partnerships. Or they can seek same-sex partnerships, or solo through life. That’s their choice. I’m just kind of rolling my eyes at the hype here.
********************@
Following the vote, the military appears to be withdrawing from the parliament building.
Thousands of people have surrounded the parliament building and are calling for Yoon’s impeachment.
Right now, it looks like Yoon is toast.
Going to be a long night…
“South Korean military officials say martial law will remain in place until President Yoon Suk Yeol lifts it himself, despite parliament’s majority vote against it, according to local media outlet YTN.”
Then again, rumors are to be expected in fast moving events.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/03/south-korea-yoon-martial-law/#link-BHN5X5HILFFIVN7MWAVGGE75L4
In less positive news:
But loads of people are coming out to protest the coup attempt.
Moreover, nobody expects this to succeed, it seems.
Two things I’ve read recently come to mind. In End Times, Peter Turchin claims to see recurring patterns of stability and instability in societies. He notes a sort of societal inertia by which societies tend to revert to form. Russia is the prime example. After World War and revolution, and after collapse and Perestroika, it reverts to authoritarianism. SK has some mixed history.
On the positive side, Kurt Weyland, in Democracy’s Resilience, claims that presidential systems, such as South Korea and the United States, with division of powers and multiple veto points, have proven to be more resistant to authoritarianism than parliamentary systems. He claims as a general rule that in a parliamentary system a populist PM needs to overcome a crisis to gain the popular support needed to take over, but in a presidential system the prez needs to overcome two crises. I don’t follow South Korean politics, but the claimed crisis seems only to be election of an opposition majority in parliament. And the apparently massive response implies the populace don’t see that as a crisis. As an aside, WIKI says impeachment and removal requires a 2/3 vote of the National Assembly.
I’m hoping to see signs the military are doing nothing except maybe crowd control and are just being legalistic in saying the prez must end the declaration of martial law. Given China and NK, SK is kinda important.
Apparently the soldiers have withdrawn from around South Korea’s parliament building.
Sources: https://bsky.app/profile/bnonews.com/post/3lcg32e6inc2c and https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/12/03/south-korea-martial-law/
NYT ten minutes ago,
@gVOR10:
Where does a disgraced SK president flee to after he commits what is evidently a capital offense?
According to the beeb, Yoon lifted martial law.
WTF was he thinking? A made up front story about a NK incursion, easily shot down. Didn’t inform his own party. Most analysts saying it’s political suicide. What pushed him over the edge?
@Michael Reynolds:
Mar a Lardo.
@Michael Reynolds: To the extent that I remember the saga of Mme President Park, they go to jail.
Of course, Park Geun-hye’s main crime was financial, so it was more significant. That may have resulted it a more severe penalty than simply trampling on the rights of the people.
My phone says it’s 5:50 in the morning in Seoul. Busy night.
@just nutha:
Upcoming resignation, and clemency on the basis of temporary mental crisis?
I can’t see a President having a shred of credibility after this sort of of malarkey.
Looks like both his own party, and likely the military command, told him to stop acting like a damn fool.
Though, as I know damn-all about Korean politics, that’s just my ill-informed guess.
From Atrios –
Paul Campos at LGM attributes this to “a friend” without a link, but it’s better info than I’ve seen elsewhere so far. And some of it sounds familiar.
I’d been curious about the vote. Was it just his opposition? Sounds like it was everybody who could get there and get into the building.
Well, that was quick.
South Korea has accidentally done us all a favor. Steve Bannon is having sad feels. The reputed global march to authoritarianism has hit a bump. Bravo to the people and the Parliament of South Korea.
If I had to score this coup on a scale of 1-10, with 1 being Yukio Mishima–gay ultra-right literary genius bodybuilder attempts to overthrow government and is laughed at by a very confused army–and 10 being Pinochet, I’d give it a 2.5.
@JohnSF: Given that his party’s parliament leader opposed his decision, calling it illegal, my guess is that you’re accurate enough.
@gVOR10: A general strike about this issue should ring the closing bell on Yoon.
@gVOR10: My read was that 190 of ~300 legislators voted, so it would have to have been close to unanimous.
@gVOR10:
I do not understand why incels would appeal to anyone, let alone young men. Isn’t the definition of incels that they aren’t appealing?
Offered a choice between the Leopards Eating People’s Faces Party and the Ain’t Gettin’ None, Really Angry About It, And Making It Everyone Else’s Problem Party, I would be voting Leopard every time.
Also, my last words might be “Pss, Pss, Pss, Good Kitty.” Call is a Pss Kink, if you have to.
@Gustopher:
I don’t think that needs a quote, but Bravo nonetheless.
@gVOR10: I wonder if there is any tangential political commentary relating to the 4B movement.
Here’s a recent article from the Guardian:
As 4B takes the world by storm, South Korea is grappling with a backlash against feminism
@Scott: Well, that was interesting. I have such mixed feelings about it. On the one hand, nobody is forced to have sex at all. And if they want to withhold sex, or publicly claim that they are withholding sex, they get to. I can appreciate that SK may well still be very patriarchal and that some women will find that oppressive.
So, more power to them.
Then there’s the transphobia that goes with this, by reports. I’m not such a big fan.
And finally the headline, that begins “As 4b takes the world by storm”. If 4b is taking the world by storm, I’m not seeing it.
One of the most important life lessons I learned is that while they may not be quite as interested in sex as men are, women still are very, very interested in sex. Furthermore, a movement that got a few hundred thousand views on US TikTok doesn’t strike me as something that is “taking the world by storm”.
Again, women can and should seek out relationships that are satisfying, equal partnerships. Or they can seek same-sex partnerships, or solo through life. That’s their choice. I’m just kind of rolling my eyes at the hype here.