Sunday’s Forum

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FILED UNDER: Open Forum
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter and/or BlueSky.

Comments

  1. Paine says:

    Josh Marshall posted a pretty frightening letter from a reader/political scientist:

    I thought last year that the USA was somewhat protected against any similar coerceive authoritarian takeover by its federal structure, given state and local government rights to control most U.S. police powers (I presented this argument in my Madison lecture for the Sept 2024 American Political Science Association).

    But now I see that the Miller-Trump ethno-authoritarians have figured out a devilishly clever workaround. Immigration is an area where a U.S. President can exercise virtually unchecked legal coercive power, especially if backed by a Supreme Court majority and corrupted Department of Justice. Now Congress has given ICE unprecedented resources – much of this windfall to be used for graft with private contractors Trump patronizes, but lots of to hire street agents willing to mask themselves and do whatever they are told against residents and fellow American citizens. The Miller-Trumpites are not interested only in rounding up undocumented immigrants. They will step up using ICE and DOJ enforcements use to harass Democrats, citizen critics, and subvert future elections if they can.

    They know exactly what they are doing…

    15
  2. ScandiLib says:

    Ah, all the jobs immigrants steal from the real Americans!
    I did those jobs.
    In middle school picking potatoes for local farmers for 6 or 7 dollars a day in the fall holiday week. Lying on your knees or bending over for hours – great!
    Then in High School, cleaning the local gym, with locker rooms and showers, brilliant! (Don’t skip the hair in the drains, kid!)
    As a student, working construction for a bank to create a safe vault in the basement, taking down the old brick walls with a sledgehammer before carrying those bricks up the stairs and over to the truck.
    And three summers in a row, mechanical workshop as an apprentice to earn some fuel and dating money: Taking a steel bar, cut it, (watch that rotating saw), then sand the edges off with the spinning sanding band (one broke and hit me in the face with no dating success for a couple of weeks as a result). Next clean out the steel bar (but not too long, the fluid will take your skin off), then stamp the holes in the bar in the two ton machine, and finally sink the holes to not get the bolts stand out on what was going to become a hospital bed. (Watch that drill, one of your co-workers has a 10-inch scar up his arm after getting caught in it….) Rinse and repeat from 7 am to 1615 pm. With no ventilation, so a finger in the nose came back out coal grey. Something to yearn for, you young Americans! Forget that Yale-dream, we’re shutting that and go back to manufacturing! Real producing stuff! Non-union Right to Work and 7.15 an hour, of course!
    My own experience in the backbreaking businesses lasted from 1972 to 1984, my kids hardly believe me, but I guess there are some old-timers here who remember those glorious good-ole days and those jobs that now “the real Americans” will flock to, right? (Sarcasm font wanted). Best wishes from Norway.

    8
  3. Jen says:

    @ScandiLib: I have observed that the Venn diagram of people complaining about the cost of produce and the lack of available labor, and those who complain about immigration is pretty much a circle.

    9
  4. DK says:

    County leaders offer relief amid canyon bathroom closures apparently mired in federal red tape (KSLTV – Utah)

    County leaders said Wednesday they were stepping in to pump and clear popular canyon bathrooms in Forest Service territory ahead of the July Fourth weekend as federal workers apparently remained mired in budget issues and red tape…

    “They were already full,” said Utah County Commissioner Amelia Powers Gardner during an interview with KSL TV. “That’s hugely problematic — especially with the number of families that we have that recreate outdoors, especially this weekend.”

    She said it appeared to be an issue that extended well beyond Utah County.

    “The Forest Service did not get their same budget that they needed to maintain the garbage and the bathrooms,” Powers Gardner explained. “All over the national forest system, we have toilets that are filling up and closing because they haven’t been pumped or maintained.”

    “I am a conservative, I did vote for Trump in this last election, and I do want us to have a lean, efficient government, but there’s a point when you’ve gone too far — not pumping the bathrooms in common recreation areas is absolutely too far,” Powers Gardner said.

    ‘It’s gone too far once it negatively affects my life. Me me me.’
    – average conservative in 2025

    12
  5. Rob1 says:

    This —

    Key US weather monitoring offices understaffed as hurricane season starts

    National Weather Service offices are reeling from job cuts and a hiring freeze imposed by Trump

    While the weather service, which has existed in some form since 1870, has always had to shift around resources to deal with extreme events, former staff said the scale of the cuts place an unprecedented strain upon its ability to provide detailed, localized forecasts.

    [..] there are concerns that understaffed local offices won’t be able to properly apply this information to affected areas.

    “They can move the deckchairs on the Titanic but they just don’t have enough bodies to do the job they are supposed to do,” said James Franklin, a retired NWS meteorologist who is a hurricane specialist. “I’m worried the local offices won’t be able to communicate with local emergency services and local officials about threats because they won’t have the bodies to do it. The uncertainty level of the forecast will go up, too.”

    Franklin said the cuts to jobs and to longer-term Noaa research aimed at improving forecasts will have a lasting impact. “It’s not even shortsighted, it’s no-sighted,” he said. “Even if you don’t see an impact this year, in five or 10 years you certainly will. They aren’t even going to save any money doing this

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/02/trump-national-weather-service-hurricanes

    And then this —

    Texas officials face scrutiny over response to catastrophic and deadly flooding

    U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem said Saturday it was difficult for forecasters to predict just how much rain would fall. She said the Trump administration would make it a priority to upgrade National Weather Service technology used to deliver warnings.

    “We know that everyone wants more warning time, and that’s why we’re working to upgrade the technology that’s been neglected for far too long to make sure families have as much advance notice as possible,” Noem said during a press conference with state and federal leaders.

    https://apnews.com/article/texas-floods-hill-country-weather-warnings-238d4325bb58f0b410015f74684738b6

    The lies and obfuscations come so easily from this Trump crew, flowing like rising water that drowns.

    6
  6. Rob1 says:

    @DK:

    It’s gone too far once it negatively affects my life. Me me me.’
    – average conservative in 2025

    In the hermetically sealed echo chamber of rightwing media, there is only the self. Interdependencies do not exist. Only greed and resentment.

    6
  7. Jay L Gischer says:

    Yesterday we were having a discussion of how language intersects politics, and today Marcy Wheeler posts a piece about that very topic:

    By contrast, right wingers approach language differently. For right wingers (a term I’ve adopted, because “in reality,” the MAGAt right is a departure from a Republican tradition that bought into assumptions about rationality and reality), language is instead a means to impose power, to impose a desired order on society. They are not trying to persuade you that living in an authoritarian hellhole will be better than living in a democracy. They are trying to bring about that helhole by disrupting debate, by policing language, by breaking the tie between language and reality. Utterances are valued not for the fidelity with which they describe the world. Rather, they are valued for the degree to which they help to attain a certain end state in which they accrue more power.

    This is why I don’t bother to debate certain people here. They aren’t here to debate. They are here to disrupt and demoralize. Perhaps to frighten. To impose language.

    You see this in phrases like “It’s all fake news!” I doubt that’s an expression of belief. I think of it more as a way to end a conversation that they would find uncomfortable. Because everyone knows that Trump lies constantly.

    No arguments. I do tell my truth. I’ve been doing that for a long time on blogs, not gonna stop now.

    8
  8. CSK says:

    @Rob1:

    At least 51 people have died in the Texas flood. No trace yet of the 27 missing campers. This is a nightmare.

    5
  9. Jay L Gischer says:

    @Rob1: Bear in mind that the way their information system works, the only bad news about Trump they hear about and are willing to believe is the bad things that happen to them.

    The rest of it was all liberal lies.

    4
  10. Fortune says:

    @Jen: Comments on Outside the Beltway complain about food prices regularly, often blaming the lack of available labor.

    ETA: Also, the breed of nationalist conservative who would complain about immigration and prices wouldn’t complain about lack of labor, and the internationalist conservative who would complain about lack of labor wouldn’t complain about immigration. I don’t think I’ve ever heard anyone complain about all three.

    1
  11. just nutha says:

    @Rob1:

    “We know that everyone wants more warning time, and that’s why we’re working to upgrade the technology that’s been neglected for far too long to make sure families have as much advance notice as possible,” Noem said during a press conference with state and federal leaders.

    My understanding is that they’ve already doubled their order of Sharpies.

    3
  12. Jay L Gischer says:

    @ScandiLib: I worked at picking berries – mostly raspberries for about two weeks at age 14. Never wanted to do that again. Some folks did better. Frankly, the 6 months I spent, at age 16, cleaning toilets was a lot better.

    4
  13. Fortune says:

    @DK: “I want smaller, more efficient government, not smaller, less efficient government.” – average conservative, 2025
    “Hypocrite! Selfish! Authoritarian!” – average leftist, 2025

  14. Mikey says:

    @Fortune: You are really not good at this.

    9
  15. DK says:

    @Fortune: “I want magic, flying pigs, and unicorns. My magical thinking extends to my very stupid insistence that voting for indiscriminate mass layoffs, draconian cuts, and trillions more deficits via tax cuts for billionaires will somehow magically make government more efficient. And I’m such a believer in small government that I vote for Trump Republicans to ban books, control pregnancies, dictate which bathrooms people can use, harras private colleges, build concentration camps, saddle the market with blanket tarrifs, deploy US troops to US cities, militarize the Southern border, and spend billions building a secret police force to detain US citizens in error and persecute non-criminal migrant workers. Such small government efficiency! My ideology is super logical and consistent. I ignored liberals’ prescient warnings, and now that I’m negatively affected by the inevitable consequences of my poor political judgment, please listen to me whine. ”
    – average American rightwinger 2025

    “You make no sense, are all over the place, and honestly sound like a dumb, childish lunatic — not unlike your rapist owner Trump.”
    – anyone with a brain across the entire planet 2025

    13
  16. Jen says:

    @Fortune: That whistling sound is the point, flying right over your head.

    Most of the folks on OTB understand the link between immigration, labor, and prices. Not everyone seems to make the connection.

    12
  17. becca says:

    The pied piper of incels and JD Vance squeeze Curtis Yarvin is suggesting some sort of domestic servitude may alleviate our labor shortage of farm workers and the like once all the deportations take their toll. Hint: it’s slavery. I knew the day would come when “they” start trying to resurrect the practice.

    6
  18. DK says:

    ‘I want my vote back’: Trump-voting family stunned after Canadian mother detained over immigration status (The Guardian)

    The family of a Canadian national who supported Donald Trump’s plans for mass deportations of immigrants say they are feeling betrayed after federal agents recently detained the woman in California while she interviewed for permanent US residency – and began working to expel her from the country.

    “We feel totally blindsided,” Cynthia Olivera’s husband – US citizen and self-identified Trump voter Francisco Olivera – told the California news station KGTV. “I want my vote back.”

    Cynthia Olivera, a 45-year-old mother of three US-born children, thus joined a growing list of examples contradicting the Trump administration’s claims that the immigration crackdown it has spearheaded since the president’s return to the Oval Office in January has prioritized targeting dangerous criminals.

    Being in the US without legal status is generally a civil infraction rather than a criminal violation.

    …She was just 10 when her parents brought her to the US from Toronto without permission, she said to the station.

    …KGTV reported that its investigative team scoured California and federal court databases, but the unit found no criminal charges under Cynthia Olivera’s name.

    In 2024, toward the end of his presidency, Joe Biden’s administration granted her a permit allowing her to work legally in the US. She had also been navigating the process to obtain legal permanent US residency – colloquially referred to as a green card – for years.

    It’s not smart to support Trump in any case, because he’s a rapist, felon, liar, and thug who incited a terror attack on Congress, worsened COVID death and destruction, colluded with Russia, and publicly sexualized his daughter. He is obviously unqualified, incompetent, corrupt, and morally unfit for the presidency (and for most jobs).

    It was especially stupid for the partially-undocumented Olivera family to support a xenophobic racist promising mass deportation, over the party making it legal for Cynthia to work. I pity them in their self-inflicted ordeal.

    8
  19. just nutha says:

    @DK:

    I pity them in their self-inflicted ordeal.

    I don’t:

    The family of a Canadian national who supported Donald Trump’s plans for mass deportations of immigrants say they are feeling betrayed after federal agents recently detained the woman in California… [emphasis added]

    Karma sucks sometimes. Get over it, Francisco and Cynthia. You got what you voted for. You should be happy. And there are worse places to be sent to than Canada.

    9
  20. Gustopher says:

    @becca: Don’t worry, I’m sure we will call it a “guest worker program.”

    And Trump has been making some rumblings about agricultural workers, and maybe if the farmers were responsible for the workers…

    2
  21. Rob1 says:

    MAGA Congressional Candidate Calls Texas Floods ‘Fake’: It’s ‘Murder

    A MAGA congressional candidate is facing backlash after spreading conspiracy theories about the deadly flash floods in Texas and calling them “fake.”

    Kandiss Taylor, who is running to represent Georgia in the House of Representatives, posted on X Saturday: “Fake weather. Fake hurricanes. Fake flooding. Fake. Fake. Fake.” Her bizarre post came as authorities searched for dozens of people who lost their lives in Texas’ flash floods.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ar-AA1I2tzC

    MAGA doubles down on its death cult status.

    I never thought I’d reach this point but I’m ready to talk about a “permanent divorce” from these bozos. We’re already two countries.

    3
  22. Jay L Gischer says:

    @just nutha: I feel like I want to make a distinction. I want to tease two things apart.

    I do not regret the pain that they are feeling. It is definitely a consequence of their own choices.

    AND, I do feel some empathy for them in the sense that I have been fooled before. In a way that cost me in a substantial way. And when I realized I had been fooled, I also realized that it wouldn’t have been all that hard to *not* be fooled.

    Finally, this kind of thing is what’s going to unravel everything. Lots of people who voted for Trump are not going to believe you and me, but people who know Francisco and Cynthia will believe them. So I don’t regret it either, other than wishing we had taken a different path.

    But we need to socially welcome people like that, not push them away by mocking them. We need more votes…

    2
  23. Eusebio says:

    @just nutha: “And there are worse places to be sent to than Canada.”

    True, and from the story…

    Olivera has since been transferred to an Ice detention center in El Paso, Texas, to await being deported.

    She should hope that she isn’t transferred to a detention center in south Florida for an indefinite stay.
    (I’m not kidding.)

    3
  24. Rob1 says:

    Blatant misinformation’: Social Security Administration email praising Trump’s tax bill blasted as a ‘lie’

    Previously apolitical agency lauds Trump’s spending bill with false statements about federal taxes, experts say

    Jeff Nesbit, who served as a top SSA official under Republican and Democratic presidents, posted on X: “The agency has never issued such a blatant political statement. The fact that Trump and his minion running SSA has done this is unconscionable.”

    The New Jersey representative Frank Pallone, the top Democrat on the House’s energy and commerce committee, wrote on X that “every word” of the SSA’s email on Thursday “is a lie”.

    “This big, ugly bill doesn’t change that,” Pallone wrote. “It’s disturbing to see Trump hijack a public institution to push blatant misinformation.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/05/social-security-administration-email-trump-tax-bill

    They can keep my “tax cuts” and fully fund the National Weather Service, maintain our commitment to Ukraine, and support authentic “freedom” for our people instead.

    These MAGA bozos run on and on with their “freedom” memeing, their knee-jerk faithful reflexively responding to that trigger, totally clueless to the vacuousness of their own sentiment. They are the ones truly “fake” even as they constantly bury facts, data, and honest discernment behind that very slur.

    4
  25. CSK says:

    @Rob1:

    This demented bitch makes Trump sound lucid.

    2
  26. ScandiLib says:

    Should have said this in my last comment: My admiration for the immigrants is sky high after actually having had their typical jobs. Working the fields and orchards is sapping your strength and often boiling you, doing manual construction, often in spaces too small for machines, is absolutely backbreaking, cleaning peoples sweat and toilet residue is disgusting, and in a subpar workshop every installation can kill or maim you. And don’t get me started on slaughterhouses and meatpacking…. This is what many immigrants do. They’re tough as leather, working hard as hell every day. I had a school and University to go back to and my admiration for the people who do these jobs for life has not waned. Compared to let’s say some politicians they are truly the Salt of the Earth.

    6
  27. Rob1 says:

    @becca:

    Hint: it’s slavery. I knew the day would come when “they” start trying to resurrect the practice.

    Debtor prisons will make a comeback.

    2
  28. Scott O says:
  29. Eusebio says:

    @Rob1:
    The tragic consequences of this flood are looking more and more to be the result of poor communication. That is, the communication of warnings that were issued by the NWS to local officials and to the public in a way that would result in them taking prompt action. This also depends on organizations having plans in place to respond to these warnings.
    From your linked AP article…

    “There’s going to be a lot of finger-pointing, a lot of second-guessing and Monday morning quarterbacking,” said Republican U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, whose district includes Kerr County.

    There already had been second-guessing by state and local officials on Friday, according to reporting (Independent):

    Texas Emergency Management Chief W. Nim Kidd told reporters at a press conference Friday that the NWS did not accurately predict the amount of rain Texas saw.

    “The original forecast that we received Wednesday from the National Weather Service predicted 3-6 inches of rain in the Concho Valley and 4-8 inches in the Hill Country,” he said at a press conference Friday. “The amount of rain that fell at this specific location was never in any of those forecasts.”

    Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly said that “no one knew this kind of flood was coming.”

    “We have floods all the time,” Kelly said. “We had no reason to believe that this was going to be anything like what’s happened here. None whatsoever.”

    Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice echoed similar concerns, noting that the storms “dumped more rain than what was forecasted.”

    So rainfall forecasts from two days prior were exceeded, which of course is not unusual. But what about the NWS warnings that were issued hours before the flooding became catastrophic? The article goes on to say…

    The NWS issued a “life-threatening flash flooding” warning in Kerrville at 1:14 a.m. on Friday. The alert triggered the Emergency Alert System, meaning it would have sounded the alarm on cell phones throughout the area. Cell phone users who didn’t have service or who turned off emergency alerts would not have heard the alarm.

    That alert was issued more than three hours before the first reports of flooding came in, an agency spokesperson told The Independent.

    “Flash Flood Warnings were issued on the night of July 3 and in the early morning of July 4, giving preliminary lead times of more than three hours before warning criteria were met,” NWS spokesperson Erica Grow Cei said.

    1
  30. Rob1 says:

    @DK:

    I pity them in their self-inflicted ordeal.

    I have no pity for Trump supporters tasting the lash of their own whip. They can claim no victimhood or innocence.

    Rather I pity those who did not support Trump and are now punished by the grossly inhumane policies of a hallucinating narcissist. Actually, pity is not strong enough, it’s outrage.

    1
  31. Rob1 says:

    @Eusebio:

    There are “holes” in the chain of response to be sure. And this tragedy certainly is not without precedence in that area of Texas. A lot of precedence. But these things only get worse under the negligence and malfeasance of Trump policies.

    1
  32. Eusebio says:

    More on communication of flood warnings, which start with the NWS… As reported by CNN,

    The question is whether the warnings reached who they needed to reach.

    Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the NWS employees’ union, told CNN that while he believes the offices had “adequate staffing and resources,” the Austin-San Antonio office is missing a warning coordination meteorologist — a role that serves as a crucial, direct link between forecasters and emergency managers.

    This vacancy in the Austin-San Antonio office, along with other key roles, were the result of early retirement incentives offered by the Trump administration to shrink the size of the federal government, a NOAA official told CNN.

    3
  33. DK says:

    @Rob1: I feel a full-blown empathy for those who opposed Trump and are now in the crosshairs of his incompetence or cruelty. I have a strong urge to try to help them, however possible. Lost in all the noise about “the working class” was this factoid: the very poor supported Harris. She won households with income under $25-$30K. There’s nothing wrong with championing the working- and middle-classes, but liberals should be outraged over the ongoing suffering inflicted on America’s poor, which Trump Republicans intend to worsen.

    For Trumpers who voted to harm themselves, I feel no great sympathy. I do look on them with pity, tho.

    2
  34. DK says:

    As Floods Hit, Key Roles Were Vacant at Weather Service Offices in Texas (New York Times)

    The National Weather Service’s San Angelo office, which is responsible for some of the areas hit hardest by Friday’s flooding, was missing a senior hydrologist, staff forecaster and meteorologist in charge, according to Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization, the union that represents Weather Service workers.

    The Weather Service’s nearby San Antonio office, which covers other areas hit by the floods, also had significant vacancies, including a warning coordination meteorologist and science officer, Mr. Fahy said. Staff members in those positions are meant to work with local emergency managers to plan for floods, including when and how to warn local residents and help them evacuate.

    That office’s warning coordination meteorologist left on April 30, after taking the early retirement package the Trump administration used to reduce the number of federal employees, according to a person with knowledge of his departure.

    Some of the openings may predate the current Trump administration. But at both offices, the vacancy rate is roughly double what it was when Mr. Trump returned to the White House in January, according to Mr. Fahy.

    John Sokich, who until January was director of congressional affairs for the National Weather Service, said those unfilled positions made it harder to coordinate with local officials because each Weather Service office works as a team. “Reduced staffing puts that in jeopardy,” he said.

    A spokeswoman for the National Weather Service, Erica Grow Cei, did not answer questions from The New York Times about the Texas vacancies, including how long those positions had been open and whether those vacancies had contributed to the damage caused by the flooding.

    Musk’s disastrously deadly DOGE cuts and indiscriminate mass firings should be halted and reversed. The Trump regime’s stupidity and incompetence endangers lives — gutting critical government functions, just as warnings predicted.

    DOGE was complete wasted effort anyway, since Republicans chose to add trillions to the debt via the Big Ugly Bill’s corporate socialism and tax cuts for billionaires.

    6
  35. CSK says:

    Per CNN, the Texas death toll is now at 68.

    NBC says 70.

  36. Jim X 32 says:

    @Jay L Gischer: Keep in mind, that the people that fund and direct RW media also understand their audience is motivated by self interest, resentment, and greed. The entire genre is built around these emotions.

    They also have assumed, and correctly so to this point, that Moderate and Left Wing competition would never “write music” in a minor, dissonant key. Will they adjust? I believe the young generation is looking to take the gloves off…a promising sign. But I also don’t believe the Schumer Pelosi grip will be quite so easy to dump. Nor will the Dem culture of age/tenure over talent go quietly.

    2
  37. Jim X 32 says:

    @Fortune: Prompt your programmer to web crawl some other forums than ours then Bot.

  38. Jim X 32 says:

    @Fortune: “Sock it to me Orange Daddy!”
    FortuneBot and MAGA drones: 2015-present

  39. Gustopher says:

    @just nutha:

    Karma sucks sometimes. Get over it, Francisco and Cynthia. You got what you voted for. You should be happy. And there are worse places to be sent to than Canada.

    Abducting people at their regular immigration check-ins is one of the particularly evil things this administration is doing.

    I would assume it’s meant to scare others into noncompliance, except if they are abducting people at regular immigration check-ins noncompliance is obviously not a serious obstacle to deporting them.

    It doesn’t even work particularly well to overwhelm the individual so that by the time they realize they should call a lawyer they’re out of the country already — immigration rights groups are preparing people before their check-ins now.

    No reason to not ask them to self-deport and then follow up. At least with countries like Canada where the human rights concerns are minimal.

    3
  40. Jay L Gischer says:

    @Jim X 32: Interestingly enough, I’m visiting my sister now. We were reminiscing about some “relatives” we have known, and boy, oh, boy, were those guys motivated by greed, probably resentment, too.

    But the biggest factor is that they were people who were not very smart, who did not realize that they were not very smart. Always getting conned. Getting fired for stealing, because it hadn’t occurred to them that there would be other ways to check on them.

    I’m thinking of one guy in particular, who is dead now. Geez, what a piece of work. His wife has remarried (and to a much better guy), but is known to us as someone who wanted to kiss people inappropriately. Also for chiseling. (Again with the greed.)

    And yeah, I’m sure she’s MAGA. She had a terrible mother, too.

    2