Did Hurricane Sandy Blunt Romney’s Momentum?

Republicans already seem to be blaming Hurricane Sandy in the event Mitt Romney loses.

Ohio: Turnout vs. Suppression

Could Romney win Ohio by ginning up Republican turnout and tamping down Democratic votes?

2012 Congressional Election Predictions

OTB bloggers give their best guesses on the House and Senate races.

Interpretation, Art, and Analysis

The analyst actually wants to understand and be correct far more than he or she wants their preferences to prevail in the analysis

If Obama Wins (Even If He Doesn’t), The Campaign For 2016 Will Begin Soon

It’s just a few days until the 2012 campaign ends, and the jostling for position for 2016 begins.

2012 Presidential Election Predictions

The OTB gang give their best guess at the outcome of the 2012 presidential contest.

Math, Damned Math, and Statistics

How Obama can have a 75 percent chance of winning an election despite being essentially tied in the polls:

On Postponing Elections

Under the right circumstances, it would be possible to postpone a Presidential election.

The Politics of Hurricane Sandy

Naturally, most of us are asking: What does this mean for next Tuesday’s election.

Summing up the Polling Debate

Dean Chambers of UnSkewed fame, puts the polling debate into sharp perspective.

Most Random Constitutional Amendment Ever?

Congressman Steve Israel has proposed an amendment to the Constitution to award 29 bonus electoral votes to the popular vote winner.

Rasmussen’s 2012 Polling Has Had A Republican Bias All Year

As in 2010, Scott Rasmussen’s polling in 2012 has shown a distinct bias in favor of Republicans.

There’s No Good Reason To Get Rid Of The Electoral College

The arguments in favor of major changes in the way we elect our President are unpersuasive.

Gender Gap: Gone Yet at Record High

A recent poll has Obama and Romney tied among women. Another gives Obama a 33 point edge.

Young Voters Far Less Enthusiastic For Obama This Time Around

Younger voters are starting to become as cynical as the rest of us.

The 2000 Election All Over Again?

We could be headed for another extremely close election where the Electoral Vote and the Popular Vote disagree with each other.

What You Think You Know About The Polls Isn’t Necessarily True

Once again, it seems necessary to debunk some commonly believed myths about polling.

Obama’s Early Voting Advantage

Once again, the Obama campaign appears to have an advantage among people who have voted already or will be voting before Election Day.

How Hamilton saw the Electoral College

Looking to Federalist 68.

Big Gains for Romney in CA

Of course, these voters are walled off from the process, so they don’t matter.

New Battleground Polls Show Slight Romney Surge

Romney’s post-debate surge is being picked up in swing state polls, but will it be enough?

Get Ready For The Post-Election Truthers

Will conservatives freak out if Romney loses? That’s pretty much guaranteed.

Three Judge Panel Upholds South Carolina Voter ID Law, Delays Implementation

A victory for advocates of Voter ID laws in a Washington, D.C. Federal Court.

Afghanistan Eleven Years And 2,000 American Deaths Later

The Afghanistan War is officially eleven years old today.

Appeals Court Upholds Ruling Restoring Early Voting For All Ohio Voters

Another legal victory for the Obama campaign in Ohio.

Romney Won The Debate, But Will It Matter?

Mitt Romney won the debate last night, but it’s not at all clear that this will matter at all.

Obama’s Gas Prices

A sign at a local Exxon station seemingly blames high gasoline prices on Barack Obama.

Judge Blocks Pennsylvania Voter ID Law For 2012 Elections

A victory for opponents of Pennsylvania’s Voter ID law, but likely only a temporary one.

The West Wing And American Politics

Not surprisingly, television and reality don’t really coincide.

Do Presidential Debates Even Matter?

There’s little evidence that Presidential debates can be game changers.

The Most Serious Aspect of the Poll Denialist Position

Getting to the heart of the problem from my POV (plus historical numbers).