(The Lack of) Public Support for Attacking Iran
Usually president care what the public thinks, especially at times of major military action. Not this time.
G. Eliiot Morris has the numbers (Trump starts a war with Iran that few Americans support). Emphasis in the original:
A YouGov snap poll fielded Saturday — the day of the strikes — found 34% of Americans approve of the U.S. attacks on Iran, with 44% disapproving and 22% unsure. The partisan breakdown reflects strong polarization in opinion: Republicans approve 69–12, Democrats disapprove 70–10, and independents lean heavily against — 52% disapprove, 20% approve.
This is a reflection of the lack of any significant effort by Trump to get the public on his side. I think this is because he doesn’t really care (as I noted yesterday). I think, also, that it demonstrates that he is not the multi-dimensional chess player that he is often thought to be. He is a man driven by appetite, surrounded by obsequious advisors (themselves driven by their own appetites), who revels in unilateral action. He has a simplistic view of international affairs, which is akin to what children learn in hour-long tv shows or movies, wherein removing the bad guy solves all the problems.
Moreover, in terms of political strategy, he has now started an unpopular war heading into midterm elections, where he is already looking at his unpopularity being the vehicle of loss of at least one chamber of Congress.
It seems worth noting that in an election year that already sees the public frustrated over prices, he has now created a circumstance, by choice, that will inevitably lead to higher oil prices. While gasoline is not as cheap as he claimed in the SOTU, it is one item whose price has dropped a bit in comparison to last year. That is likely to change soon, and perhaps dramatically. It is worth underscoring that people tend to be very reactive and aware of gasoline prices, given the frequency with which they fill their tanks and the giant numbers broadcasting the price.
A protracted crisis in the Persian Gulf could have long-term effects on price, and that will not be good for the incumbent party in November.
At any rate, here’s the comparison to other conflicts in the region:
LOL, I just cited a post that cited this poll a minute ago in another thread.
Predictably daily polling will have various results, the simplistic view that killing a few leaders means the success and the felon’s claim today that Iran wants to restart talks will likely get him a temporary bounce.
But oil futures have been trending upward though today are below the recent peak on 2/27. It won’t be at all surprising that some gasoline retailers try to use this to raise prices ahead of whatever the market does. That won’t go over well.
I just had a thought that I can’t quickly refute: How involved are US forces in this, versus Israeli and maybe Saudi forces? What specifically are US forces doing? It wouldn’t be beyond this administration to merely play backup for the Israelis but then try to take a lot of credit.
Trump will lose as many as six, maybe eight supporters.
The Trump administration has shown no interest in public support for anything since they have gained power. They have their base, who will support nearly anything (other than public child rape*), and that’s enough to ensure that if and when opposition forms, it will be blunted by the brownshirts.
I don’t think it makes any sense to look at the Iran War as separate from Immigration Goons, tariffs, or the radical pro-measles agenda, to pick a few things at random. It’s a government that either doesn’t care about popular support, or thinks that popular support will just happen**.
He’s obviously going to try to screw with the elections. We know this because he has literally stated this.
Whether it is through an executive order that claims IEEPA gives him the right to federalize the elections and toss out votes he feels are fraudulent, or not seating Congress critters, or ICE violently beating people in swing districts, or riling up the brownshirts to attack anyone who’s skin is darker than their shirts***… my guess would be several different approaches to see what sticks.
Popular support doesn’t matter if you don’t care about democracy, so long as the popular disapproval doesn’t get up to an insurrection bigger than you can crush.
I think it’s just that simple.
On the other hand, DHS goons haven’t been able to hold Minneapolis, and I think that a large scale assault on democracy will fail as it will have similar pushback in a lot more places, and the goon squad isn’t that large.
And the amateur brownshirts aren’t organized enough or numerous enough — we’ve very rarely seen Proud Boys or their ilk staging a protest where they aren’t outnumbered by counter-protesters, and that’s with the normies not paying attention****.
So, I’m optimistic.*****
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*: everyone but the most deluded knows that Trump either raped children, or was perfectly content knowing his buddy raped children. But, they just know, they don’t officially know. The Epstein files would make them officially know, and then they would have to be disgusted.
**: Where are all the people who were saying in 2003 that Iraq would be a cakewalk, and that we would be viewed as liberators? Are they now advising Trump on domestic politics?
***: I kid, I kid. They aren’t literally wearing brown shirts, that would be silly. If the fashion hasn’t changed since the Unite The Reich rally, they will be using their khakis for measuring skin tones.
****: The normies are often willfully not paying attention. Look at ICE right now — we’re a racist country, absolutely, but it’s a small-r racist country where most white folk want to enjoy the benefits of white supremacy without seeing the violence, and call themselves allies for no good reason. Make them look at the violence of the Racist Goon Squad, and they’ll turn their head to look away, and if when they turn their head there’s more Racist Goon Squad violence over there, they don’t like it. Trump would be a much more effective fascist if he started by building privacy fences so people don’t have to see that shit. Americans love law and order, but really just order.
The Civil Rights Era marchers had to work hard to get the racists to act like uncontrolled violent goons on tv, and here’s the Trump administration just giving that shit away for free, assuming they can control the media indefinitely…
*****: Optimistic is, perhaps, a too strong word. It’s not going to be a happy fun time. I really should become a Prepper — it’s the responsible thing to do.