The Revolution Will Not Be Happening
The public is much less concerned than you are.
Noted milquetoast conservative commentator David Brooks proclaims, “America Needs a Mass Movement—Now.”
His premise:
Other peoples have risen. Other peoples have risen up to defend their rights, their dignity, and their democracies. In the past 50 years, they’ve done it in Poland, South Africa, Lebanon, South Korea, Ukraine, East Timor, Serbia, Madagascar, Nepal, and elsewhere.
[…]
Such uprisings are not rare. For their 2011 book, Why Civil Resistance Works, the political scientists Erica Chenoweth and Maria Stephan looked at 323 resistance movements from 1900 to 2006, including more than 100 nonviolent resistance campaigns. What Chenoweth and Stephan showed is that citizens are not powerless; they have many ways to defend democracy.
For the United States, the question of the decade is: Why hasn’t a resistance movement materialized here?
Looking at the original article on which Chenoweth and Stephan’s book was based, I see that the 323 cases were drawn from the Nonviolent and Violent Conflict Outcomes (NAVCO) data set, which
contains a sample of resistance campaigns based on consensus data of scholars of both violent and nonviolent conflict. Resistance campaigns include campaigns for domestic regime change, against foreign occupations, or for secession or self-determination. Omitted from the data set are major social and economic campaigns, such as the civil rights movement and the populist movement in the United States. To gain inclusion into the NAVCO data set, the campaign must have a major and disruptive political objective, such as the ending of a current political regime, a foreign occupation, or secession.
That’s a pretty high bar. Compare that to the list of offenses that Brooks believes should spark such a campaign here:
The second Trump administration has flouted court decisions in a third of all rulings against it, according to The Washington Post. It operates as a national extortion racket, using federal power to control the inner workings of universities, law firms, and corporations. It has thoroughly politicized the Justice Department, launching a series of partisan investigations against its political foes. It has turned ICE into a massive paramilitary organization with apparently unconstrained powers. It has treated the Constitution with disdain, assaulted democratic norms and diminished democratic freedoms, and put military vehicles and soldiers on the streets of the capital. It embraces the optics of fascism, and flaunts its autocratic aspirations.
For most Americans, these transgressions are quite literally invisible. I live in the DC suburbs and haven’t seen a single National Guardsman or ICE agent. If I weren’t an avid consumer of the news, I would have no idea any of this was happening.
Looking at Trump’s approval ratings, the American people seem to be unfazed by it all.
Here’s an aggregation of his approval ratings in today’s NYT:
Nate Silver shows similar numbers:
Sure, Trump is considerably underwater, with more than half the country disapproving. But he’s actually more popular now than he was at this point in his first term:
Indeed, as Silver notes,
As of today, Trump has a net approval rating of -8.4. Compare that to one week ago (-9.3), two weeks ago (-9.4), and three weeks ago (-7.5) and you’ll notice a remarkable lack of long-term movement. The percentage of Americans who strongly disapprove of Trump is also down from its peak of 44 percent on September 30th to a more normal (for Trump) 42.5 percent.
It’s the same story for the issues we track. Trump’s approval on immigration has been hovering around net -5 since late September, and he’s stuck around net -16 on both the economy and trade. To be clear, these are bad results for Trump. His handling of the economy this time around is substantially less popular than his term one approach. But when it comes to overall approval, Trump is still more popular now than he was eight years ago (net -8.4 vs. -16.7).
For the mass public, then, this is all just noise. We’re hyper-polarized. The days of Presidents getting significant approval from supporters of the opposite party are long behind us.
Looking at the RealClearPolitics aggregate, which tracks all the way to the beginning of Trump’s first term,
we see fluctuation within a rather narrow band. Trump seems to have a floor of something like 36 percent approval and a ceiling of maybe 51. That just doesn’t seem like a country ripe for mass uprisings.
Indeed, Brooks seems to acknowledge as much:
To beat a social movement, you must build a counter social movement. And to do that, you need a different narrative about where we are and where we should be heading, a different set of values dictating what is admirable and what is disgraceful. If we fail to build such a movement, authoritarian strongmen around the globe will dominate indefinitely.
[…]
Successful movements are microcosms of the society they hope to create. An anti-MAGA movement would have to be a cross-class movement, one that joined members of the educated class with members of the working class, shrinking the social chasms that gave rise to populism in the first place.
Successful movements mobilize the people who already agree with them—but they also focus on persuading those who don’t. Occasionally you’ll hear a Democratic politician say they are going to “fight” for their side. Much of the time, that just means the politician is going to say what their base already believes, only at a higher volume. That’s mostly useless. Large anti-Trump rallies attended exclusively by NPR listeners in blue cities do not impress rural voters.
The opposition has spent a decade banging the “Trump is awful” drum, largely failing to persuade those who didn’t see that for themselves. And even many who agree nonetheless prefer Trump to the alternative. It’s not obvious to me what fixes that.
Thus far, the current standoff over extending temporary ObamaCare subsidies does not seem to be doing the trick.
It’s a cult (of personality). There is nothing you can do to shift that 36% that sets the floor. Of the rest I think they largely dont care. As you note, they dont see this stuff affecting them. Destroying CDC and NIH will have long term effects but few will see the short term effects. Breaking down the barriers to use the military in domestic disputes wont have major effects for a while. Destroying our leading universities is again, a long term issue. Ignoring Congress and assuming all spending powers into the executive branch is the culmination of a trend. Brooks can say we need a revolt but it’s not happening. I am very negative about our being able to change this.
Steve
Since when have revolutions required a two-thirds majority?
Also, it’s unclear from these polls, as you cite them, why Trump’s numbers haven’t ticked down. To what extent does ignorance of current events play a part? ICE cruelty and Trump family corruption has caused some movement among the attentive public, including influencers like Joe Rogan.
I know, that’s disapproval of Trump policies, not necessarily Trump himself. But, as you say, the counter-narrative has to be about something, not just “Trump bad,” an America where we don’t have masked goons brutalizing immigrants and invading apartment buildings in the middle of the night, among other outrages.
These attitudes aren’t manufactured by messaging. They’re the product of deep values that already exist, lived experience, and empathy. The narrative merely frames them in a way that helps people crystallize their misgivings and see a course of action.
That’s why activities like the No Kings protest are essential. They embody the counter-narrative. They help people combat despair. And, critically, they give the uneasy a counter-community to join, consisting of people who share the same vision of what their lives and America writ large can be. It’s vital to give people the confidence to leave their comfortable partisan island that Steven also cites and swim to other shores.
Brooks is being a poor social scientist here. As you note, the dataset focuses as follows: “To gain inclusion into the NAVCO data set, the campaign must have a major and disruptive political objective, such as the ending of a current political regime, a foreign occupation, or secession.”
Even if we had a more robust anti-Trump mass movement, it wouldn’t fit into that kind of model, unless “ending of a current political regime” is defined as ousting an incumbent while keeping all the other aspects of the government intact. That isn’t generally what “regime” means in this kind of context.
For example, I am more interested in significant political reform than the vast majority of people in the US, including rabidly anti-Trump types, but I am not asking for regime change as most political scientists (and other social scientists) would understand the term.
Ironically, the actors who are trying to engage in real regime change (i.e., transforming the basic structure of governance and power) is the Trump administration and its ongoing attempts to undermine Congress, the courts, and various civil society institutions (universities, law firms, corporations).
The resistance, such as it is, wants the regime ex ante to be restored.
As such, Brooks derives perhaps a useful general lesson (peaceful protest can be more efficacious than violence), but he didn’t pick the best source for his more specific point.
In re: the polling, I think James is correct that a lot of this is due to inattention.
Also, a lot of the pain being inflicted by the administration, such as via tariffs, takes time to fully filter into the population.
Life remains pretty normal on the surface.
@Kingdaddy: My point in citing the polls isn’t the current support level but the narrowness of the fluctuation. While it seems obvious that Trump 47 is a wildly more radical administration than Trump 45, the general public doesn’t seem to think so. I suspect a President Rubio would have similar numbers.
@Steven L. Taylor: Yup. I was only broadly familiar with the book, but it took me five minutes to figure out that the study wasn’t showing what Brooks thought it did.
Oh, by the way: the counter-community needs to have a substantial face to face component.
Also, I’m not talking about the cult of personality, just the people outside of it who voted for Trump, and now have to justify their decisions to themselves. That won’t stop any time soon without a counter-narrative and counter-community.
For normal people, a revolution might occur if MAGA took over the culture industry and everyone had to consume content that far-right Christians consume. But Trump isn’t trying to change daily life. What’s he doing is creating a terrible government for purposes that are even worse. The people who should be objecting to this–Republican elites in power who are in the same boat as everyone else and require stability—aren’t objecting, and it makes any kind of popular response impossible.
Here’s the thing, pushing to extend healthcare subsidies should be very popular with the the majority of Americans and Democratic politicians need to point out out to America that the GOP keeps screaming “but the deficit!” when the cost to extend the subsidies is brought to the GOPs attention but when Trump says he will give 20 Billion to Argentina…crickets.
Americans should be asked to ask ourselves how does bailing out Argentina make America great again?
So what if a few hedge fund managers find themselves a few notches lower on Forbes list of the wealthiest folks on the planet because they lost some money due to the Argentina mess, I should cry Argentina for them…why?
Helping Americans from going bankrupt due to health care costs would be a very MAGA thing I could get behind.
I’ll add that white America is great at moving on and terrible at accountability, and Trump has exploited this to the nth degree by being unable to move on or give up regarding anything. He just doesn’t let things go, and everyone around him doubles down on every abuse and lie. Most white Americans are told not to say no when things are happening. It’s only in the aftermath, when no was never said, that the lie (which is what Brooks loves) that everyone said no emerges.
Imagine had white America in the 50s been solely run by the likes of Bill Buckley and J. Edgar Hoover, and nobody ever stopped lying or oppressing, and they just went on and on and on, with nobody in power trying to move on and put segregation behind us.
I feel that the information space is so different from what we are used to, that it can take a long time for new information to reach many people. Maybe it won’t ever.
Joe Rogan is now voicing serious doubts about Trump and his policy of deporting people who have been here 20 years. This is not really matched by much of a turn in the polling. This surprises me. Maybe he doesn’t have the reach I thought he did? Maybe it’s just a slow, slow turn. It’s hard for someone to change course once they have taken action (like voting) based on a belief.
So maybe this just takes a lot of time?
Not that I disagree that you have to be for something.
@Jay L. Gischer:
Rogan’s audience and that of other felon friendly podcasters might seem large, but is pretty self selective, probably showing up as around 1% of the poll population. The same with Faux news as their average audience during prime time is only 3.3M, the real culprit for disseminating inaccurate news is the social networks, particularly FB, Instagram and Xhitter and the major owners of local TV, Sinclair etc.
For most of the population, news consumption is a passive event, where the “news” comes to them via the algorithms.
@Sleeping Dog: Yeah, meanwhile, Big Money is paying lots of folks to pump out propaganda into social media. Nobody is Walter Cronkite. It’s going to take a while for this worm to turn.
I believe the 3.5% rule is in their book.
I’ll be going to a No Kings demonstration Saturday. I expect good turnout nationwide, but nothing like the 10 million plus required by the 3.5% rule.
Dems would do well to use No Kings like GOPs used the Tea Party. But I don’t know where we find someone like the Koch Bros to fund and organize astroturfing.
I left the USA for the Dominican Republic because I realized that the issues we have as a country have less to do with Trump and more to do with the racist, misogynistic, homophobic citizens who fight against policies that would help them because those same policies would also help brown and black people. It’s not Trump. It’s the Trump voters. And don’t give me shit about how there are good Trump voters. No. There is not. Not any more. We have…
1. American Citizens being rounded up by masked men, with no warrants, no probable cause, and being detained for anywhere from hours to days, some ferried to different states, before being released without charges, without apologies, and without any help in getting back home. No accountability for these illegal actions.
2. American Citizens are having their homes raided by Federal Agents rappelling off of Helicopters onto rooftops, breaking in windows and doors, searching for people who may or may not be here illegally. Apartments and condos destroyed. Belongings broken or ruined. Again, with no accountability or repercussions.
3. Career prosecutors at the DOJ are being forced to either file bogus charges against the President’s enemies or be fired.
The list continues, and it’s too long to list, but most of the readers here are aware of the abuses by this administration, which the Supreme Court has gleefully emboldened and assisted. And a great number of American voters support all these actions. All of them. If the election were held tomorrow, Trump would win again. Probably by more. A big part of the American population has forgotten, or don’t care, what it means to be an American; what the coutnry has stood for for 250 years. And it took only 10 months to ruin it.
If Barack Obama had done even 10% of these things, the GOP and FOX News would be screaming about it 24/7. Instead, we have a Dem Party, led by Schumer and Jeffries, who continue to write “strongly worded letters” and do too little too late.
Soon as this job is over, I’m back in the DR, and away from the homophobic, racist, mysogynistic assholes that call themselves Patriots. I’ll be so much happier.
Is this administration doing bad stuff yet? Or are we still waiting until something really bad happens?
@gVOR10: The last one had 3-4 million. 10 million is not out of reach.
Which is both accurate and disorienting. After decades doing PR and communications work, I can attest that it is incredibly hard to convey messaging to the public, and getting harder all the time. In addition to the splintering of communications platforms (in the past, three major news networks with local affiliates–now, hundreds of channels plus social media, for example), people don’t pay attention to anything that doesn’t interest them.
There are so many warning signs right now. As Steve222 correctly notes, the gutting of the CDC and NIH will have long-term effects, but the immediate impact is hidden from all but those who are directly affected. A child receiving cancer treatments today is receiving the benefit of years of investment in research. The research that has been recently defunded will impact the care provided to a child, what–like 5-10 years from now? That’s not on anyone’s radar.
America is sleepwalking into societal collapse.
@EddieInCA: I think complaining about Shumer is barking up the wrong tree. Of course Fox would be throwing a hissy fit every night. They are propagandists, and a tool of Big Money.
Chuck Shumer does not own a platform like Fox News. He has to depend on outlets like the NYTimes. Or CBS News. Oh wait, that just got bought by another conservative billionaire, who put Bari Weiss, fired by the NYTimes, in charge.
Big Republican Money seeks out spokespeople that look good on camera and pays them to say stuff to some audience. It’s best if its an audience they don’t otherwise reach. These spokespeople have no ethic of fairness, but are chosen for their willingness to advance partisan propaganda.
Chuck Shumer’s job is crafting legislation. He’s not a reality TV host, or an “influencer”.
Finally, one of the core strategies of groups like MAGA is the puff up. They aim to look bigger than they are, and to demoralize the opposition.
I would rather not let that succeed. Every single policy that they have advanced is unpopular. Every. Single. One.
They are so scared of losing the House majority that they are going for a crazy gerrymander gambit. The House is out of session right now, probably because if it were in session, a new Member would be sworn in, sign the discharge petition and get movement on the Epstein files.
Seriously, these dudes are up against a wall.
I don’t want to lay some mandate on you, though Eddie. It’s more of an invitation to look at things in a different way.
What we are trying to do is form a national identity that doesn’t put much weight on racial identifiers. This is very hard. It really hasn’t been done at scale much of anywhere. Maybe in a few smaller spots. It is also worthwhile. It has enriched me, and I will advocate for it at any opportunity.
Hm. Trump is massively unpopular in very specific places, largely unpopular across the board in cities, but massively popular across huge rural swaths. He’s extremely popular among those who pay the least attention to current events (as noted above, for whom news is delivered via algorithm), and he’s extremely popular among the Fox News and OAN sets.
So the question is, if the people of high-population southern/coastal California decided to cast off Trump as their executive, would the wheat farmers of Kansas go to bat for him, or will they basically be oblivious? And would the Fox News couch surfers or right-wing-algo-troughers suddenly join the Army to do extremely hard and dangerous work to keep that bastion of socialist evil in their Evangelical nation, or will they say “good riddance!” and move on to getting angry about the next bigoted agenda item on their nightly broadcast?
Equally, would Californians care if Kansas were suddenly not in its Union? What would they lose that couldn’t be recovered some other way (e.g. enhanced trade with Canada)?
And another big part of this is what counts as “revolution”? By my watch, the revolution has already started and it’s been initiated by the traitorous, cowardly House and a despicable group of opportunists on SCOTUS enabling a rogue president as he trashes every idea we might have had of Constitutional protections. This is just Step 1 in his latest autogolpe attempt.
@Jay L. Gischer:
I know Joe Rogan. I’ve known him for 15 years plus. He’s a moron. Really. An absolute moron. He’s built himself an empire by opining, drunk and stoned, like most guys of his ilk do in a corner bar every night. There is nothing insightful to what he says. There is nothing truly inspiring. Yet he has built an enormous following. That speaks to the rot of the American people’s ability to think critically. And I’m not even going to detail the myriad of conspiracy theories which he has propagated into the zeitgeist.
We are a sick country right now, and I don’t have hopes that we can reverse this slide into authoritarianism. Too many people are liking it.
@Jay L. Gischer:
Great comment Jay, and I couldn’t disagree more. What you’re proposing is all rational and smart. It’s also a losing strategy. You’re proposing bringing a knife to a fight where the other side has an grenade launcher. He’s underwater in every policy? Who cares? Do you think he’d lose to Harris/Shapiro/Newsom if an election were held today? Serously, do you?
I value your morals, logic, and passion, but what you’re proposing is destined to fail. The Dems cannot hope the American people will finally see that their policies are better. That’s not where the public is at. The Dems, as a party, have a 22% approval rating. That’s reality. That’s the real world.
@EddieInCA: And there’s nothing the Democrats can do that they aren’t already doing.
Party structures are weak by design, and a Democrat from NYC is not the same as a Democrat from suburban Wisconsin. Gavin Newsom is as close as Dems have gotten to a national spokesperson, largely based on satire. How does one lead if most people aren’t paying attention? How do Democrats lay out a plan for the future when no one cares?
I get that Democrats are angry and frustrated that more people don’t see the mess we are in and the disaster that we are headed towards, but we can’t make people pay attention.
I’ll again note that most Germans were pretty comfortable from 1933 until the bombs started falling.
@Steven L. Taylor:
FTFY.
The tariffs haven’t hit because many businesses are reluctant to raise prices, especially after about of high inflation. I think many expect the tariffs to be transitory, though I’ve no idea why they’d think that. So, for now, a lot of wholesalers, importers, manufacturers, and retailers are eating a portion or all the increases from the tariffs. That’s one thing cash reserves are good for.
Of course, cash reserves are a limited resource. eventually they’ll have to pass on the increased prices to their customers.
Once that happens, inflation will shoot up. but, assuming the tariff rates remain as they are, there won’t be long term, sustained inflation. And it may even be eclipsed by the increase in insurance premiums.
James, yes – THIS. Its had me dumbfounded for a while. Are we all on SOMA? Is the fluoride in the water making us passive? I don’t understand it.
Going back Roe vs. Wade being overturned. I always heard “that’ll never happen, it’ll be the death of the Republican party”. No one cares about anything unethical this president does, says, is convicted of. Past presidents would have been destroyed by their own party, let alone the opposing party. The collective of society cares less about the stranglehold the tech industry has on our political system. Our society is in latte la-la land.
Sure, I’ll go to the No Kings protest this weekend, but what good will that do? Protests are temporary outlets for dissatisfaction, society changes when subversion is injected into its daily life – but we are all zombies, and when we all wake up it may be much too late.
@gVOR10: And they all lined up behind the leader for the next almost 10 years.
@Kurtz: Word.
@EddieInCA:
Actually, I think he might. Voters mostly react to the incumbent party and there is enough general unhappiness with the way things are now that he probably would lose.
This is part of why I am not as persuaded by messaging arguments, because the voters most likely to decide the election probably aren’t paying attention.
But a lot of that is because a lot of Democrats, like commenters here, are upset they aren’t fighting enough, not because they are willing to vote R or even sit out an election.
Why is a fix needed at all? The American people deserve to get what they voted (and non-voted, and third party voted) into power.
Iowa farmers sound alarm as Trump administration backs $20 billion Argentina bailout (KCCI Des Moines)
“How stupid are the people of Iowa?” – President Trumpflation, 2016
“I don’t care about you, I just want your vote.” – President Trumpflation, 2024
Thoughts and prayers to Iowa farmers.
Anyway, I’m back in Berlin for another couple of months, starting next week. Excited for the Christmas markets. I really love the place; thinking of getting serious about learning German.
@HelloWorld:
I will say it again: for most people, life hasn’t changed that much.
I can honestly say that were it not for the fact that I spend way too much time reading about, thinking about, and writing about this stuff, my life would not be especially impacted by the Trump administration to this point in time.
A lot of the serious effects are either happening to other people, far away, or they won’t really hit the general populace for some time.
Sure, the DJIA fluctuated somewhat, but the trend lines have stayed in the right direction.
The only prices I have noticed (that being a key word) are for beef. I have also noticed that some restaurant prices seem to have gone up. But since I can afford it all, it doesn’t cause me great angst, even if I would prefer they be lower.
Most people simply don’t care about deportations to CECOT nor the vaporizing of alleged drug boats nor do they really understand what is happened to the CDC, NIH, etc.
(Note: I am downplaying nothing, but noting the reality of effects and likely perceptions.)
@DK:
I would feel more sanguine about such statements if the federal government actually fully reflected the voted will of the electorate.
@EddieInCA: Well, I could make a longer rebuttal, but I will simply note that lots of people thought Ukraine would lose to Russia in the first month.
We are in a fight. People will get hurt. I intend to do what I can.
@HelloWorld:
It sends a message both to Trump and those who oppose Trump.
Millions of peaceful protests are also a counter to his narrative of warzones and hellholes.
@Kathy:
They haven’t? Where are y’all shopping?
@Sleeping Dog:
These are consumer facing enterprises that could be vulnerable to the actions of a portion of the 54 percent of disapprovers. I realize that it will be difficult to convince many users to give up FB, or to some extent Instagram, but it can happen. The TV outlets should be low-hanging fruit for those who don’t want their viewing options to be dictated by a corporate nanny eager to please the administration. During the Kimmel fiasco, when I found out that a certain local station was owned by Nexstar, that was the end of that channel in this household, despite having watched its local news and two of its shows fairly often. There are other things to do with one’s time.
The most concerning media/information culprit may be TikTok, which appears to be falling under the control of investors loyal to the administration.
@Jay L. Gischer:
People with Joe Rogan fanboys among their friends know most don’t take Rogan as seriously as Rogan’s critics do. Polling would not necessarily follow Rogan, because contrary to the manufactured consent narrative, Harris not going on Rogan is not why she lost. Post-COVID economic and migration factors caused nearly every incumbent party, left and right, across the globe, running in 2022-24 to lose voter share + her black womanness tipped the scales.
On that subject…
@EddieInCA:
Harris, who knows, maybe, maybe not. A generic white male Dem, probably.
The whole “Dems, as a party, have a 22% approval rating” thing folks keep citing is not as meaningful as advertised. One, Republicans, as a party, have an approval rating not so much less awful. Two, people vote for candidates.
It’s like polls showing 80% of Americans want term limits. Yet we keep re-electing our geriatric incumbents. Turns out, it’s other people’s incumbents we want gone. What we tell polls about a macro issue ≠ how we vote when faced with an actual choice between candidates.
Also, the pretense it doesn’t matter Trump has fallen from 50%ish approval in Jan to 40%ish now — because it’s higher than his historically bad first term standard — is odd. A serial murderer need not match John Wayne Gacy’s body count to be considered awful. There’s no need to measure every data point against the lowest possible Guinness Book of World Records standard.
@James Joyner:
I don’t think things are going to get any better until a sufficient mass of men like you (and I don’t mean this pejoratively), cis, het, well off but not rich, and most important, generally comfortable. The US was set up to keep guys like you either on a trajectory towards the top or at least convinced you were.
Now, I realize, almost all of the MAGA freakout is because guys like you (again, not you in particular) were forced to compete against women and minorities. The problem is, the people at the top of MAGA and the GOP in general are the billionaires that despise guys like you. The billionaires are working overtime to screw over guys like you hard. You’re the guy that makes their companies run, but who also occasionally tell them no. Once your class takes a massive pounding and starts losing homes and families, shit’s gonna get real wild.
The thing that constantly amazes me about Trump II is not just how stupid they all are, but how intensely they’ve all bought into their stupid bullshit ideas. Things like “originalism” or trickle-down economics. It’s all bullshit, but they think it’s real. You got guys like Thiel raving about the anti-Christ like a loon and Yarvin has a whole bunch of them convinced that there should be a king. These idiots make the Confederate idiots look like geniuses. Things are breaking and soon things are going to irrevocably break. When they do, these idiots are too stupid and too venal to be able to fix anything.
Absent the AI/data center boom, the US is in a recession. The AI/data center boom’s days are numbered. Working in real estate I can tell you that, regardless of whether people are paying attention or not, people are acting like we’re back in 07. The crash is coming sooner rather than later.
There’s also little drips of bad permeating through. That guy that got deported when he went out to lunch with his Marine son. How many Marine families are looking around at immigrant parents and wondering if they’re gonna get snatched. What happens when a Marine shoots an ICE agent snatching their mom? Or some ICE bastard gets frisky and shoots a cop in the face with a pepper ball. There’s already plenty of videos of Chicago Cops getting blasted with tear gas.
The fact that the whole country hasn’t imploded yet is a testament to the people that built these systems over generations.
I don’t think so. While I’m certain that Trump is not some evil genius or magical figure, he is sui generis in a lot of ways. I’m certain that all those morons, but especially Vance and Rubio, think that when the old man dies they are going to inherit the kingdom. But their brains are pickled and, whatever level of intelligence they had, they’ve become profoundly stupid. Stupid and enamored of their own brilliance. There is no way that Vance is going to have the level of control over the freaks and morons of the GOP that Trump has. There is no way any of them coming out ahead when the old man goes. It’ll be a minimum 6 months of score settling and political kniving. That will be the best part of all of this.
@Kurtz:
Brooks had choices to make when Trump became the nominee first time around. Supporting Trump would likely cost him his audience and his cushy NYT gig. But he still had to play token conservative for NYT, and he would have found it hard to give up a lifetime of shilling for GOPs. He largely retreated into pop sociology. But at heart he’s still the Republican concern troll he’s always been. ‘I have you Dems best interests at heart when I say you should give up popular position X.’
James, when you, quoting Silver’s data, say, “But he’s actually more popular now than he was at this point in his first term” you should note his favorability today is a near record low for any prez at this point, a low exceeded only by himself in his first term.
@Steven L. Taylor:
We got our health insurance enrollment for 2026. Next year, our cost for coverage + deductibles will exceed what we pay for our mortgage, property taxes, and homeowners insurance combined. Bear in mind that NH has some of the higher property taxes (because we don’t pay income or sales tax). We are also spending roughly 25% more on groceries.
@Steven L. Taylor: You’re exactly right but in past generations even spoiled rich-kid hippies got involved in social justice, as did the punks of the 80’s. I’ve noticed some prices are up. And, restaurants are packed, as are coffee shops and stores. But I keep hearing no one can afford a house. But houses in my hood are still selling in about 30 days without price drops. So when I say I don’t understand…I mean I really don’t understand.
@Steven L. Taylor:
I don’t feel We The People have standing to see such complaints taken seriously until our voter participation rates match or exceed peer nations. We consistently fail to turnout at rates tantamount to countries whose democracies originally copied us. It should embarrass us.
Queen Elizabeth II, a few years before she left us, was infamously and hilariously caught on a hot mic calling out world leaders who “talk but don’t do” re: climate change. The quote could very easily apply to Americans and our political complaints. Having traveled everywhere at this point, I think Americans are generally cool people, but when it comes to politics and government? Decadent, lazy, and full of crap. We will blame anything other than ourselves as an excuse not to take action.
@DK:
Mexico 😀
I misstated. The tariffs haven’t hit fully yet.
As for whether, when, and where tariffs have hit, my experience is…they haven’t hit me yet.
We’re not prolific consumers, but we were due for a new car this year and signed a sales agreement in early April—before tariffs took effect for the the industry. Sixth months later, the base price for the same model/trim (foreign make, final assembly in U.S.) is only $300 higher. I can’t explain that.
Meanwhile, a chief source of middle America angst—the price of gasoline—has been remarkably unchanged since Sep 2024.
@Kathy:
How are things there, BTW? What’s the general take on Sheinbaum that you’re hearing, pros and cons?
@Eusebio: Can y’all tell the rest us where to shop at? Cause I’m looking at my bills like…the hell is this? Did he actually mean higher prices on day one?
Recently viral on Threads:
Same lady, a century ago on 12 February:
@Steven L. Taylor:
In practical terms, does it?
For the sake of argument, let us leave out the prospect of agents provocateur and opportunistic theft/vandalism.
The narrative that the George Floyd protests were violent riots persists in the public consciousness. On the flip side, Trumpists still push several narratives about 1/6: that some sort of deep state anti-Trump conspiracy explains any violence, that it was peaceful, and that the only death was of a protester.
Whatever the relative truth values, the issue is that many people seem to buy that the former is true and the latter is false, but that the latter does not matter in the voting booth.
Equally salient is your example. There is far more evidence that Portland or any other cities targeted by the Trump admin are not the hellholes they are portrayed to be. Yet, it doesn’t matter. A.) there are people who are willing to believe it; and B.) there are people shameless and cynical enough to continue pushing the lies.
The black box brains of those who lack interest in politics except for a few weeks every two or four years are more or less ciphers—many even to themselves. What I mean is that they do not make decisions via rigid process. Rather, they accumulate ‘knowledge’/beliefs that feed a sense, intuition.
Now let us consider the variables I left out initially. If mass protests did snowball into substantial participation that it would also draw agents provocateur and opportunistic criminal elements.
It’s not about the truth values of competing narratives. If it was about truth, we would be likely not be in this situation.
The mistake is to think Trumpists are just throwing red meat to the base to keep them foaming at the mouth. No, the other, probably more impactful effect from an electoral perspective is that sticky snippets lodge themselves into the brains of the mass of disinterested people who nonetheless vote.
What do we call it? The Mandela Effect, Aerosolized?
@DK:
Not that well. Inflation closed in September at 3.76, which at least is lower than last year. On the other hand, inflation in food was 5.34% and that’s higher than last year. Sheinbaum’s continuing King Manuel Andres’ policies, and trouble keeps looking ahead.
On the other hand, the US dollar tumbled from a bit over 20 to 1 to 18.5 to 1 shortly after the Taco tariffs began. there are tariffs on some Chinese goods, not all of them, so it gets complicated. I think cars have been hit hardest.
Earlier this year I got a few items from Temu, and wasn’t charged any import taxes. So, no idea.
Speaking of symbols and messaging, it would be a good idea for the No Kings protesters to carry lots of big, ostentatious, US flags. The wingnut wing* of the Taco party is already libeling them as America haters and terrorists. the flags would serve as a powerful counter argument.
*That is to say, the only wing in the Taco party.
@Jen: Don’t get me wrong. I am not saying we aren’t in the middle of all such things getting worse. I am just saying that we are still in process. The approval ratings are a lagging indicator and it takes time for it all to settle in.
And my sincere sympathies for that insurance bill.
Looking at how things are going, I think it’s only a matter of time before we have a massacre. Poorly trained ICE agents, national guard and military with no police training operating in cities — it’s going to get out of hand, and a bunch of people are going to get killed.
It’s as inevitable as school shootings in a country flooded with guns. Just a matter of time.
And I really hope it’s white people. Pretty, young, blonde white women would be ideal, as we’ve seen time and time again that when something happens to one of them, this country stops and pays attention. Dead people who cannot be “othered” and dismissed.
People in inflatable frog suits might also work. We do love mascots.
And that’s when things will change. Whether things will change for the better or worse, I don’t know. But until then, it’s all just waiting.
I think/hope MAGA is like the AI bubble, with surprisingly little underlying support, propped up by an appearance of strength. There are any number of things that could burst that bubble — economic downturn when the literal AI bubble bursts, health care collapsing, Trump’s decline suddenly being noticed, etc — but I think the White Christian Nationalist shell of MAGA keeps moving forward for a while in any of this cases, and we’ll probably get that massacre anyway.
But I keep hearing no one can afford a house. But houses in my hood are still selling in about 30 days without price drops. So when I say I don’t understand…I mean I really don’t understand.
@inhumans99:
It seems simple to me: Democrats are bad at politics, and far behind the curve in messaging and response tactics and strategy.
Democrats do not now know how to deal with Trump’s ownership of the news cycle … every single day. A big part of the problem is that the Democratic Party has been ossified for years. When the messaging face of your Party is Chuck Schumer, you’ve got a big problem.
It strikes me that we don’t think Trump will drop until the real world starts to feel the pain. Counterpoint: Trump ran to a large degree on immigrants and trans people, neither of which had any real world impact on most of his voters. That’s the counter to ‘messaging doesn’t matter.’ Messaging certainly does seem to matter to the enemy.
@Michael Reynolds:
I think that view assumes symmetry in multiple relevant areas. It is a fair assumption in terms of process, but it probably does not fit various aspects of mass political behavior nor individual political choice rooted in ranked preferences.
Moreover, as I have pointed out many times here, conservatism – definitionally – has a built in advantage over anything that suggests change.
It is hard enough to get a group that consists of more than a few people to agree that something needs to change even when that group is largely homogenous. It is much more difficult to agree on kind or degree, much less, both.
Of course, we are not in a conservative moment. It is easy for someone who IDs as conservative, especially in moments of high partisan polarization, to cross over into reactionary territory if they believe (via external manipulation/persuasion or a crystallized worldview*) that the country went astray years or decades ago.
Indeed, most of those who have long been reasonable conservatives are now largely voting with us, engaging in some sort of protest vote, or abstaining.
*ETA: especially if that worldview largely consists of moral judgments.
@DK:
My experience may not be representative, and I was thinking mostly of Japanese branded cars from recent personal experience, and from consumer electronics after a quick look at Best Buy’s website…although the downward arc of TV prices may be hiding increased prices due to tariffs.
Food prices are another matter. We are privileged to be able to bargain shop among a typical 60,000-sq ft regional chain supermarket, a Walmart, and a nearby discount store akin to the Frugal Hoosier. I went to the supermarket earlier this evening for some essentials: a half-gallon of organic milk, two shrinkflated (less-than-half-gallon) cartons of orange juice, and a dozen eggs (all were on sale); and I opportunistically got an expensive toothpaste because there was a $5 coupon for it on the store card, and threw in a box of store brand raisin bran. The total was $20 and change. It would’ve been $30 with name brand cereal and no store card.
@Kurtz:
I hear you. Perhaps I am just looking for some optimism somewhere.
@Steven L. Taylor: I don’t expect “normal” people who don’t pay attention to politics will notice until November 15th and onwards. That’s when ACA signups starts, and most states start their Medicaid renewals. These are the same people who don’t understand that their state has a different name than Medicaid….It’s all invidual. They don’t even know they’re on Medicaid. That’s not what it’s called in their state. That 6 weeks between November 15th and January 1st is when it might actually start moving the needle.
I did not, of course, read Brooks’ column but if he did not either (1) Bothsides it or (2) suggest the solution is Dems adopting more Republican policies, he will be back to doing that next week.
Re: Joe Rogan, given that he just said all the protestors are losers, Feds and paid by George Soros.. well. Free thinker indeed.
@Kurtz:
I’m not assuming symmetry, but let’s not pretend that the Left doesn’t have messaging. We all got the message very quickly on trans rights, something most of us had not been thinking about ten years ago. We all also got the message on Gaza. We message, we just do it badly.
What we lack is anyone in a position of authority, a gatekeeper, to boost some messages and discourage others – what Fox News does for their side. It’s more complicated for us because we want every little punkin’ headed college sophomore to feel like he’s leading some online crusade. We have no strategist in a position to say, ‘how about we talk about the popular X and not the politically poisonous, Y?’