The Trump Assassination Attempt
A shocking if perhaps unsurprising development.
An attempt was made on the life of the leading candidate for President of the United States at a Pennsylvania campaign rally yesterday. Former President Trump escaped with seemingly minor injuries, a bullet having grazed his ear. The shooter was killed by the Secret Service and little information about him is publicly available. One bystander was killed at the scene and two others were seriously wounded.
President Biden and other American and world leaders are rightly condemning the violence. Even granting the unique circumstances in light of Trump’s role in instigating the Capitol Riot of January 6, 2020 in an attempt to steal an election Biden won, violence can have no place in the domestic politics of a democratic polity. While I would strongly prefer Biden (or any non-Trump candidate) be President come next January 20, the American people, not a lone gunman, have the right to make that decision.
I haven’t the foggiest how or whether this will impact the election. In the short run, the combination of public sympathy for Trump and admiration for his defiant reaction in the moment will likely buoy him in the polls. It will also further highlight that, while both men are unusually old for such a demanding job, Trump is more physically vigorous even despite his obesity. In the longer run, given rabid partisanship and the degree to which public opinion on these two men is entrenched, I suspect the impact will be marginal.
Reportedly, the shooter used an AR-15 variant and got off eight shots. One presumes this will, yet again, ignite another round of debate on gun control that will yield very little. And it will certainly raise questions about the competence of the Secret Service.
As is always the case when there is a politically involved shooting, there will be finger-pointing about the rhetoric of our politics. From my vantage point, it’s pretty obvious that the main culprit in the coarsening of our political debate over the last three decades or so is from Trump’s side of the aisle. But it’s certainly the case that the rhetoric on the other side has gotten more heated, whether simply in response or in outright anger over policy disputes that are intensely personal in impact.
Regardless, while I believe the tone of the front page has remained civil, I’ll be more careful in choosing my words as this heated campaign progresses. And I’ll be more vigilant in policing a comment section that has gotten more heated and less civil. In particular, name-calling, whether of the candidates or other commenters, is beneath the level of discourse for which we’re aiming here.
The real impact of the attack will come when we see how Trump takes advantage of it. I think we all know exactly how he’ll do it and what will happen.
And you’re right, on the SS side of things, how the *bleep* can someone carry an AR-15 variant without being seen or stopped earlier?
@Not the IT Dept.: It struck me that the public responses from Dem leadership felt stronger than from GOP leadership. Dems espoused sympathy and support for Trump while also condemning all acts of political violence. GOPs were supportive of their leader and doubled-down on their endorsements of him though mostly were silent on the broader topic of violence. Later on, certain folks began pointing fingers at Biden.
Biden immediately started pulling ads, reached out to Trump directly, and told folks in his admin/campaign not to comment further.
I’d set the over/under at noon today before Trump starts directly trying to exploit this for political gain.
And everyone will stay silent on him being a registered Republican who voted in one election — 2022 general — for a Republican candidate. Dems cuz it’d “look bad” and Republicans because, well, it’d be bad!
@Kazzy: It’s just too soon to speculate on any of that. The shooter was, yes, a registered Republican but also someone who’d given money to progressive causes. Unusually for someone of his age, there’s no obvious record of social media posting. Were I to hazard a guess, I’d say he was mentally ill but, again, there’s just no value in speculation at this point.
@James Joyner: Too soon to speculate on what exactly? I’m speculating on how different folks will respond because of how they’ve responded thus far and in the past.
Trump will absolutely seize on any aspect of this he can exploit for personal gain while ignoring any inconvenient truths. His followers will do the same. Because that’s who he is and that’s who they are. Biden and Dem leaders will not.
How soon (if not already) until we hear “the Deep State tried to kill President Trump”? That line of accusation surely follows from the Secret Service’s failure to secure that rooftop.
@Rob Robinson:
Here is a link to a right winger who is pretty quick off the blocks with posting the hottest rumors:
https://x.com/MattWallace888
Also a good source for right wing fabrications in general.
@Rob Robinson: Congressman Mike Collins, R-GA, on Twitter last night: “Joe Biden sent the orders.”
Josh Marshall makes a very good point:
In case people have forgotten Trump thought the attempt to kill Paul Pelosi was a subject of great humor.
@Mikey: Oh, FFS. What an irresponsible buffoon.
I should probably stay off the internet for a few days, the stupid is really going to go sky-high.
@Jen: Why is he an irresponsible buffoon? Trump’s supporters are already trying to do what he describes.
This white on white crime is outta hand!
Comment in violation of site policies removed
At this point we have is a registered Republican, who voted GOP in 2022, but also donated $15 to ActBlue, using a weapon Democrats have tried to ban for 50 years. Surely there’ll be a manifesto.
Not to mention the Biden admin notoriously denying Secret Service protection to RFKjr and now reports that Trump’s detail has been having their requests for more resources denied by Myorkas and the Biden appointee SS director, Kimberly A. Cheatle.
But then Cheatle has likely seen the naked underbelly of Joe Biden
@Mikey:
“Congressman Mike Collins, R-GA, on Twitter last night: “Joe Biden sent the orders.””
Then, under the recent Supreme Court decision, as long as Biden can show it was related to his official acts, he is immune from prosecution. I think preventing Trump from subverting the Constitution counts as an official act, so he should be in the clear. [said with a bit of sarcasm]
@Moosebreath: Are vice-presidents also immune? Perhaps Mike Pence was looking for payback.
Few thoughts, no prayers.
@Kazzy:
Why would they do this? Decency won’t be reciprocated. Nor will the public respect it. It will taken as a sign of weakness.
@Scott:
What should they do/say instead?
@JKB:
The Secret Service has stated on camera during an interview of various agencies after the attack that this was NOT true.
https://www.barrons.com/news/us-secret-service-denies-claims-it-refused-additional-protection-for-trump-397e12ea
Find your conspiracy of the day elsewhere.
@JKB:
This is a lie.
Anthony Guglielmi, Secret Service spokesman:
Do 20 year old murderers have ideas that are available to rational analysis? In a nation with many firearms isn’t there a reasonable chance that someone will fire a shot especially if the culture valorizes violent actions? I haven’t seen any movies or video games that extol compromise and talking things out. I was not surprised when I heard of this.
@Scott:
It’s a good question, a deeper philosophical question. Should we live moral lives in hope of reciprocation? Or should we simply live moral lives, full stop. One of my core objections to Christianity (and many religions) is the idea that good deeds are done in expectation of eternal reward. IOW, a Christian does good for pay; atheists have to do good with no reward but simply because we think it’s right.
I’m an atheist. To the extent that I live a moral life, I do it with no expectation of reciprocation or reward. It’s not a matter of, ‘what’s in it for me?’ Rather it’s a question of who I am.
Also, attack ads against a guy who just got shot is not a good look politically.
Thankfully I have a major surgery scheduled for tomorrow so will be unconscious or on Oxy for the next few days and will miss most of the “debate” that will take place.
@Rob Robinson: Funny you mention that – I was at the store yesterday getting some new shoes, and the first I heard about the shooting was from a group of old guys also getting shoes. I overheard them talking about how the Deep State just tried to kill Trump. I pulled out my phone saw the first reports and went “fuuuuuuck” to myself.
Anyway, political violence is a big, big red line for me without justification.
In the dark recesses of my lizard brain I admit that I do sometimes wish death for people, and I’ve imagined about how it would help America if our two geriatric candidates both passed quietly in their sleep. I’ve had that same thought to my sister, who is in the latter stages of Fronto-Temporal-Dementia. I know her well enough to know that she would rather be dead than the state she is in. The best that can be done is to make her as comfortable as possible while waiting for the inevitable end.
But overt, direct, violence especially for what looks likely to be political motives, is not justified. It is an attack on democracy. Lots of people are already “but Jan. 6th!” Well, those people need to realize that assassinating candidates (especially the one you don’t like) is not any better than Jan. 6th and if one supports killing opponents, one is no better and certainly no friend of democracy . Using violence to achieve political ends or wishing the same is the antithesis of democracy. Consider if this had happened to Biden instead of Trump and how that would make you feel.
And at the end of the day, I think this incident will probably help more than hurt Trump. Many on the right are already starting to run the playbook the left ran after the Gabby Giffords shooting – for the OTB old-timers, remember what fun that “debate” was here? There’s going to be a repeat but the partisan players will switch roles.
Anyway, that’s about all I will have to say on this for a few days. I hope that everyone would exercise a bit more introspection and consider looking at things if the shoe were on the other foot, but that is a forlorn hope I fear. I am mostly worried at this point about escalation and hope that doesn’t happen. But I think the chances of it are high thanks to the current national zeitgeist and the longstanding promotion of conspiracies among a non-trivial number of Trump supporters. They won’t listen to me, but I would urge them and everyone to follow democratic principles and not violence.
James, I am glad to read there will be a heavier hand moderating comments. And I know it’s a difficult and thankless task. I dipped into a few threads around the internet last evening and things were ugly. And here I think the tone and behavior (including from me if I’m honest) has gone downhill in the past several months and most of us could use the reminder to be civil along with more active moderation measures.
@DK: I’m talking about pulling ads and pulling back on the campaign. There is no reason to do that.
@DK: I’m talking about pulling ads and pulling back on the campaign. There is no reason to do that. If you find it distasteful to run negative attack ads at this time, then don’t. However, Trump is still unfit to be President and tasteful, pro-Biden ads will not cut it.
Pretty sure the shooter was a law-abiding gunowner. Until he wasn’t.
@Scott:
It’s just temporary, homie. There’s still 113 days to annoy and exhaust us with endless campaign ads and donor appeals.
More guns= more shootings. If you look back we actually had a fair number of shootings or attempts on presidents/presidential candidates from Truman up to Reagan. Then after Reagan none until now. I think that’s partially better security but also luck. In states with open carry laws it’s just not that unusual for people to openly carry long guns to political rallies and protests so it’s become a more prevalent risk. Political tensions have increased but it’s also a country where you get shot just for going to the wrong house or pulling into the wrong driveway. Lets hope more shootings dont happen but it given our culture they seem inevitable.
Steve
@Andy:
For the record, after someone posted about Biden’s use of “bull’s-eye” I immediately thought about Gifford’s and Democrats/liberals complaining about Sarah Palin and others putting opponents cross hairs in political ads.
At the time the general perspective of Republicans and conservatives was that it was a ridiculous line of attack. And while I find that image tasteless, I tend to agree with them.
Of course intellectual consistent has never been a winning strategy in politics.
I may have to dig up those OTB articles (once I finish also recovering from surgery).
Aside Andy: at least here in the East, things have swung so far on the opioid epidemic that in my the surgeries in the past year (it’s been a journey y’all) I found I was underperscribed opioid based pain meds relative to the pain I was in. That didn’t help the healing process. Be sure you advocate for what you need.
@Kathy:
I’m unclear on the comment policy. Was it insulting a convicted felon, or pointing out said convicted felon’s tacky, unseemly attempt to fundraise off yesterday’s events?
@DK: In the meantime, the Republicans are not letting a good crisis go to waste.
How could someone get the idea to make an attempt on Trump?
And here’s Biden in Michigan inciting the crowd
@Scott: It is common practice, and yes, absolutely there is a reason for it. First and foremost, basic human decency. Second, your efficacy rate goes WAY down, because no one is paying attention to your ads/fundraising emails/whatever.
So, it’s not just the decent thing to do, it also is a financially smart move.
@mattbernius:
Thanks for that advice. I already have the meds, I’m hoping I don’t have to use many of them. I have a pretty high pain tolerance except when it comes to sleeping. I’m most worried about not being able to sleep, but one way or another, I’ll embrace the suck and get through.
And yeah, I saw someone mention the “bullseye” comment too and thought, great, here we go again.
As our Republican friends have reminded us on countless occasions: We’re a republic not a democracy.
@JKB:
Who put the AR15 in his hands? Republicans.
We should have a moment of silence for the pundits who have been hoping for an open convention. They missed it by a matter of inches.
Ezra Klein must be despondent.
It’s time for the obvious to be noted now that we know Trump will live to lie another day. And frankly, him being killed would have been a complete disastrous event for America. Trump MUST be defeated at the Ballot box. )
Let’s just say the reactions of the crowd behind the lecturn and the Former President were “non-standard” for an active shooter event.
The only people that acted somewhat as expected were the SS.
At anyrate it appears the Republicans are in disarray—you know, being that a Never Trumper tried to take out the Republican Nominee
@Kathy: As noted in the OP, I’m cracking down on enforcing the policy against name-calling. Make your argument without silly nicknames and insults.
@Scott: That’s the issue. Democrats are damned if do and damned if don’t. Because Democratic voters actually care. We would hold our folks accountable if they acted like assholes. The GOP and their voters refuse to.
I am interested to learn more about the shooter. Based on what we know already, a 20 year old male registered Republican from Rural Pennsylvania who is proficient with an AR-15, I would’ve thought that he would be a Trump supporter. Obviously not.
@JKB:
You know, I have never seen you to be a pearl-clutcher when it came to political discourse.
But as you seem to have the vapors and need a fainting couch, please do consider this whilst you languish.. just a short list of times that trump suggested violence againsthis political opponents:
Additional reading:
‘No Blame?’ ABC News finds 54 cases invoking ‘Trump’ in connection with violence, threats, alleged assaults.
You insist on showing yourself as a real snowflake … sad.
@Rob Robinson:
But, was he really proficient? I’ll have to wait for the gun enthusiasts to tell me whether grazing an ear is proficient from that distance.
Good guys with guns did not stop a bad guy with a gun from killing a citizen and critically injuring two other citizens and attempting the assassination of a major party candidate for President USA. I wonder if there had been 300 or 400 good guys with guns (see Uvalde, Texas) at this event the outcome would have been different?
When are the gun rights extremists going to call for ending gun screening at these events because it doesn’t make any difference? Like the signs proclaiming “Gun Free Zones” by schools?
@Andy: Best wishes for a successful resolution regarding your surgery.
@Gustopher: Coming that close from that distance seems proficient to me, but it’s been many years since I have shot a rifle, so I am certainly open to hearing from folks who are more experienced in that area.
Andy- Get stool softeners.
Steve
@James Joyner:
Ok. It’s your house and all.
But in my mind, Donald Trump is the vilest name I can call anyone. Including the convicted felon in question.
@steve:
Seconding this advice.
Also Steve, this is going way off thread, but what are your thoughts on the pendulum swinging too far to the caution side with opiod pain killers? Or are expectations of a pain-free post-op recovery period unrealistic?
I’m enjoying the conspiracy theories popping up in real time.
We have:
– it’s a false flag operation
– people on a grassy knoll were shouting to secret service about a camouflaged guy climbing up a building with a rifle and the secret service just shrugged
– the person who died was shot from behind the riser, not from the roof with the gunman
– Trump requested more security but was denied
– antifa
– Biden ordered it
– Trump was actually hit with a piece of glass from his teleprompter, not a bullet
All very exciting.
@Gustopher: oh, and woman DEI Secret Service agents were the cause of all security lapses.
Lots of very normal people out there saying very normal things.
ETA: Now I get an edit link for the post I wanted to add to.
@Gustopher:
The NYT is now contesting the notion that Trump was hit by a shard of glass rather than a bullet.
Matt- Sure. Just for context while i am not a pain doc I did the research and hiring to start the acute pain service in our network so have a fair bit of experience directly with pain issues but more broadly via the pain service and team. I would describe the current treatment of pain as very uneven. In places where you have an active pain service and good educational efforts with good follow up we probably treat pain much better now. We have lots of different modalities besides narcotics. We still use very high dose narcotics when appropriate like some cancer care but for acute pain like surgery we use more local anesthesia infiltration or blocks for the acute stage and narcotics are mostly for minor surgeries and for the later stages of major surgeries.
That said if you dont have access to that kind of network pain care can be spotty. It ranges from providers who are scared to prescribe stuff so they under medicate to people who still order a months worth of narcs for minor hernia surgery. The literature on this is, I think, mixed and hard to sort out. We know we are prescribing fewer narcs but we also think we were overprescribing in the past so we dont know the “correct” amount.
So to make a complicated answer easier, I think we probably treat a higher percentage of people better but also a slightly higher percentage are now undertreated, its just that you are more likely to hear about the latter. You dont get to hear so much about the post op shoulder pt who has essentially no pain for 3 days who isn’t worked on pain meds, avoids the GI issues and only needs a few pain pills to get through rehab.
Steve
@mattbernius:
@steve:
We’re way off topic now…
The Dubner Principle state: people don’t correct problems, they over-correct them.
So we go from inadequate pain medication to stuffing patients full of opioids, to inadequate pain medication but for other reasons.
Soon there will come along another wonder drug, and we’ll over-correct in that direction.
@just nutha:
Thank You!
@steve:
Thanks! I do have a prescription for those, and also aspirin for blood clots.
@Andy: “Thankfully I have a major surgery scheduled for tomorrow so will be unconscious or on Oxy for the next few days ”
Can you have a plus-one for that?
In something of a metaphor, a blind BBC reporter scooped all the US media by getting the interview of an eyewitness who had tried to warn the Secret Service/police of the guy bear crawling across the roof top with a rifle.
https://x.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1812284572241220012
@Andy: well said.
@JKB:
Perhaps from Convicted Felon Trump sending a terrorist mob to the Capitol screaming “Hang Mike Pence!”
@Slugger: Postal 2 could be completed without engaging in a single act of violence. Want to guess what the media and crew focused on at the time?
Believe it or not there’s been a slew of games that advocate compromise and cooperation. Some of the biggest streamer hits on Twitch have been those kinds of games. Chained together is the current big one on twitch. Where people are encouraged to work together and compromise to achieve greater goals.
@JKB:
I can think of a whole host of reasons that stack up far higher than ideas for attempting to kill Dimebag Daryll or John Lennon..
@DK: Or perhaps from Trump’s own mouth, about Hillary Clinton:
“If she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do, folks,” Mr. Trump said, as the crowd began to boo. He quickly added: “Although the Second Amendment people — maybe there is, I don’t know.”
Ryan McBeth, retired Army, disinformation expert, gives an analysis of the disinformation that started with in minutes of the shooting.
@Matt: Human Fall flat was the last big one I can remember off the top of my head.
@JKB:
Considering you were spreading misinformation up thread, maybe, just maybe, you should exercise your choice to sit this one out.
@JKB:
Politically motivated troll liar pimping for pathological liar who tried to murder his own Veep says, what?