Outside the Beltway

The Trump Economy

Plus more white nationalism from the administration.

Steven L. Taylor · Wednesday, December 17, 2025 · 3 comments

As a general matter, it is clearly the case that Presidents get too much credit and too much blame for economic outcomes. On balance, the forces that drive the economy are simply outside the control of the occupant of the White House, although voters tend not to see it that way.

On occasion, however, policy choices can matter, for good or ill. In the case of the current administration, I have no problem stating that its approach to the global economic system via the erratic tariff policies of the president has been a net negative. If you are going to disrupt the decades-old global economic order, there are going to be consequences. Further, when looking at things like employment, it is hard to ignore that this administration has destroyed roughly 168,000 federal jobs just since September, and the damage to many federal functions has had negative impacts on private sector jobs as well.

As such, if we look at the monthly job numbers, it is objectively impossible for Trump and his supporters to claim that his administration is doing a good job for America.

Here are the basics of the most recent data releases via PBS: The U.S. gained 64,000 jobs in November but lost 105,000 in October as the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%.

The United States gained a decent 64,000 jobs in November but lost 105,000 in October as federal workers departed after cutbacks by the Trump administration, the government said in delayed reports.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, highest since 2021.

And while one should be cautious about inferring too much causality from one graph, let’s note the following (source):

And yet, the propagandists in the administration (this is the accurate designation), state the following:

“The strong jobs report shows how President Trump is fixing the damage caused by Joe Biden and creating a strong, America First economy in record time. Since President Trump took office, 100% of the job growth has come in the private sector and among native-born Americans — exactly where it should be. Workers’ wages are rising, prices are falling, trillions of dollars in investments are pouring into our country, and the American economy is primed to boom in 2026.”
— White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt

From that linked report, we get the following as well:

Since September, the private sector has gained 121,000 jobs, while the federal government has shed 168,000 jobs as the Trump Administration shrinks the runaway federal bureaucracy.

In the simplistic terms provided, that’s a net loss of jobs of -47,000.

The same press release notes that federal employment is down 217,000 jobs since Trump took office, and for some reason, job gains since August were a sub-bullet to the September numbers. It is all a confusing presentation of data, to be honest.

There is, of course, a nativist, white nationalist spin to it all: “Under President Trump, 100% of the job growth has come in the private sector and among native-born Americans — NOT illegals.”

By the way, contrasting “native-born” with “illegals” ignores that there are plenty of foreign-born persons in the US, who are here legally, if not citizens. This rhetorical focus on “native-born” of late seems to have picked up recently and bears our attention.

Indeed, Stephen Miller took to X to spew lies about past jobs data, suggesting that all past job growth was just Americans being replaced. It doesn’t make any sense, save as gross white nationalist propaganda, and seems to endorse a version of Replacement Theory.

For more on these data, see Jeremy Horpedahl, Job Market Data is Back! Did All Job Growth Go to Native-Born Americans in the Private Sector?

I recommend the whole post, but would note the following:

687,000 private-sector jobs is not exactly robust job growth. A year ago the comparable number was running around 1.2 million jobs for a similar timeframe, so private-sector job growth has been cut in half. Positive growth, but weak by recent standards.