The War on Venezuela is Escalating
The SOUTHCOM commander has resigned and the Senate is debating, but it won't matter.
Reuters (“Exclusive: In a first, US strike in Caribbean leaves survivors, US official says“):
The U.S. military carried out a new strike on Thursday against a suspected drug vessel in the Caribbean, and in what is believed to be the first such case, there were survivors among the crew, a U.S. official told Reuters.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, did not offer additional details about the incident, which has not been previously reported, except to say that it was not clear that the strike had been designed to leave survivors.
The development raises new questions, including whether the U.S. military rendered aid to the survivors and whether they are now in U.S. military custody, possibly as prisoners of war.
The Pentagon, which has labeled those it has targeted in the strikes as narcoterrorists, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Prior to Thursday’s operation, U.S. military strikes against suspected drug boats off Venezuela killed at least 27 people, raising alarms among some legal experts and Democratic lawmakers, who question whether they adhere to the laws of war.
Videos presented by the Trump administration of previous attacks showed vessels being completely destroyed, and there have been no prior accounts of survivors afterwards.
The Trump administration argues the U.S. is already engaged in a war with narcoterrorist groups from Venezuela, making the strikes legitimate. Trump administration officials say lethal strikes are necessary because traditional efforts to apprehend crew members and seize cargoes have historically failed to stem the flow of narcotics into the U.S.
[…]
On Wednesday, Trump disclosed he had authorized the Central Intelligence Agency to conduct covert operations inside Venezuela, adding to speculation in Caracas that the United States is attempting to topple Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
In a letter to the United Nations’ 15-member Security Council, seen by Reuters, Venezuela’s U.N. Ambassador Samuel Moncada asked for a U.N. determination that the U.S. strikes off its coast are illegal and to issue a statement backing Venezuela’s sovereignty.
Less than a week ago, the Pentagon announced its counter-narcotics operations in the region would not be led by the Miami-based Southern Command, which oversees U.S. military activities in Latin America.
Instead, the Pentagon said a task force was being created that would be led by II Marine Expeditionary Force, a unit capable of rapid overseas operations that is based at Camp Lejeune in North Carolina.
That decision came as a surprise to U.S. military-watchers, since a combatant command like Southern Command would normally lead any high-profile operations.
Earlier on Thursday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the admiral who leads U.S. Southern Command will step down at the end of this year, two years ahead of schedule, in a surprise move.
The top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, Senator Jack Reed, called Admiral Alvin Holsey’s unexpected resignation troubling given mounting fears of a potential U.S. confrontation with Venezuela.
“Admiral Holsey’s resignation only deepens my concern that this administration is ignoring the hard-earned lessons of previous U.S. military campaigns and the advice of our most experienced warfighters,” Reed said in a statement.
NYT (“Head of the U.S. Military’s Southern Command Is Stepping Down, Officials Say“):
The military commander overseeing the Pentagon’s escalating attacks against boats in the Caribbean Sea that the Trump administration says are smuggling drugs said on Thursday that he was stepping down.
The officer, Adm. Alvin Holsey, is leaving his job as head of the U.S. Southern Command, which oversees all operations in Central and South America, even as the Pentagon has rapidly built up some 10,000 forces in the region in what it says is a major counterdrug and counterterrorism mission.
It was unclear why Admiral Holsey is suddenly departing, less than a year into what is typically a three-year job, and in the midst of the biggest operation in his 37-year career. But one current and one former U.S. official, both of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss personnel matters, said that Admiral Holsey had raised concerns about the mission and the attacks on the alleged drug boats.
[…]
“Prior to Trump, I can’t think of a combatant commander who left his or her post early, ever,” said Representative Adam Smith of Washington, the senior Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee.
Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, was even more pointed in his criticism.
“At a moment when U.S. forces are building up across the Caribbean and tensions with Venezuela are at a boiling point, the departure of our top military commander in the region sends an alarming signal of instability within the chain of command,” Mr. Reed said in a statement.
[…]
[A] range of specialists in the laws governing the use of force have disputed the Trump administration’s claim that it can lawfully kill people suspected of drug trafficking like enemy troops instead of arresting them for prosecution. As a matter of domestic law, Congress has not authorized any armed conflict.
As a matter of international law, for a nonstate group to qualify as a belligerent in an armed conflict — meaning its members can be targeted for killing based on their status alone, not because of anything they specifically do — it must be an “organized armed group” with a centralized command structure, and engaging in hostilities.
WSJ (“Venezuela Mobilizes Troops and Militias as U.S. Military Looms Offshore“):
Venezuela is moving troops into position on the Caribbean coast and mobilizing what President Nicolás Maduro asserts is a millions-strong militia in a display of defiance against the biggest American military buildup in the Caribbean since the 1980s.
The strongman’s regime has cranked up its propaganda machine. On state television, radio and social media, announcers are telling Venezuelans that the U.S. is a rapacious Nazi-like state that wants to dig its claws into the country’s oil wealth but that the Venezuelan military, the National Bolivarian Armed Forces, are positioning to repel any invasion.
Footage has shown militia members—men and women; often elderly, slightly plump Venezuelans—running obstacle courses, crawling under barbed wire and firing rifles. The Venezuelan armed forces, which military experts say on paper number 125,000 soldiers, are shown marching in formation, with troops mounting armored vehicles and moving boxes of munitions around. The country’s Russian-made jet fighters are featured in footage shooting across the skies.
[…]
The regime’s aggressive posturing obscures the vulnerability of its armed forces against the world’s most powerful military. Experts say the U.S. buildup isn’t enough to support an invasion of Venezuela but would be sufficient to support sustained strikes on boats allegedly carrying drugs to the U.S. or the bombing of targets on Venezuela’s soil, as President Trump has warned.
The U.S. has moved advanced weaponry into the Caribbean and in the skies north of Venezuela, including eight Navy warships, an attack submarine, F-35B jet fighters, P-8 Poseidon spy planes and MQ-9 Reaper drones.
The Pentagon has deployed elite special operations forces, including the Army’s secretive 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, the “Night Stalkers,” a U.S. official said. The unit flies missions for commandos such as the Green Berets, The Navy SEALs and Delta Force and is famous for its involvement in the raid that killed Osama bin Laden. Large troop-carrying and attack helicopters are part of the mix, with some aircraft conducting training flights fewer than 90 miles from Venezuela, the official said.
The Pentagon also dispatched B-52 bombers on Wednesday near La Orchila, according to flight tracking data, a Venezuelan island where Maduro’s forces carried out drills last month featuring jets, warships and amphibious vehicles. The aircraft carry heavy payloads but also do surveillance.
NPR (“Senators will force a vote to prevent war on Venezuela without approval from Congress“):
Amid a wave of U.S. military strikes in the Caribbean and plans for covert operations in Venezuela, Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., is leading a bipartisan effort to force a vote to stop President Trump from unilaterally declaring war on the South American nation.
Kaine, a longtime proponent of Congress’ powers to declare war, filed the resolution late Thursday, a move that will force the Senate to take up the legislation after a 10-day waiting period. Sens. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and Rand Paul, R-Ky., co-sponsored the plan.
Kaine said concerns about war in the Latin American region are growing.
“The pace of the announcements, the authorization of covert activities and the military planning makes me think there’s some chance this could be imminent,” Kaine told reporters.
[…]
Last week, Kaine and Schiff forced a Senate vote to limit Trump’s war powers in the Caribbean. While that vote failed 48-51, two Republicans, Paul and Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, joined Democrats in support.
Paul has been a vocal critic of the new military strikes, saying they set a precedent for the U.S. to shoot first without asking questions.
“The American people do not want to be dragged into endless war with Venezuela without public debate or a vote,” Paul said in a statement. “We ought to defend what the Constitution demands: deliberation before war.”
Kaine, Paul and Schiff are hoping more Republican members will vote in favor of the new limits. Several Republicans have voted for other war powers and use of military force resolutions led by Kaine in the past.
“I think it’s probably 10 or so [Republicans] who voted yes on at least one of them,” he said. “So we’ll start to work that.”
It remains unclear whether there are enough Republican votes for the measure to succeed.
Kaine said Congress continues to face a “black hole” of information related to action against Venezuela. Lawmakers say the administration still has not shared evidence to justify the boat strikes, which Kaine and others believe are illegal and unconstitutional.
This is all uncharted territory.
Presidents have sent military forces into hostilities without Congressional authorization at least as far back as Thomas Jefferson. And the 2001 Authorization to Use Military Force that launched the Global War on Terror has been stretched beyond recognition, with presidents of both parties killing military-age males in far-off lands with impunity for nearly a quarter century.
Still, this feels different.
Whatever the legality of killing people we declare to be “terrorists,” we’ve done so in places where no real alternative existed. There was no way to arrest and try them for their crimes—as we did for the 1993 World Trade Center bombers and Timothy McVeigh. Conversely, the U.S. Coast Guard routinely boards suspected drug vessels, seizes their cargo, and arrests the crew.
Congress should absolutely have a role in deciding whether we are going to engage in sustained hostilities with Venezuela. Alas, there is little hope that the Republican majority will defy Trump on this matter.
The military leadership is in an unenviable position. While there seems to be an overwhelming majority of legal scholars who believe these actions violate both U.S. and international law, the administration has produced an Office of Legal Counsel ruling justifying them. The service Judge Advocates General who were pushing back on the legality of previous administration actions were summarily fired. Ditto many top officers, including the previous Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Those who feel strongly enough can follow Holsey’s lead and retire. But orders of the President are presumed legal and his successor, who will presumably be vetted on this matter before being appointed, will follow them.
Venezuela is an economic basket case with a population of 28 million. After we knock off the government and kickstart the inevitable guerrilla insurgency, who will be feeding those 28 million people? Who will be policing the streets? Absent government, who in Venezuela will have the men, the cohesion and the weapons to profit from the chaos? Consulting my crystal ball I see the criminal gangs filling the power vacuum. Which, if I am not mistaken, is not our preferred end state.
Good for Holsey. As I understand military law a POTUS order is assumed legal. It can be challenged but with the existing OLC ruling there is little chance of winning and it would essentially be the end of one’s career. One could hope there will be more resignations but there will always be a Bork, willing to do anything to advance their career.
Steve
At LGM: Yesterday Paul Campos posted on how an officer refusing to obey what they deem an illegal order is handled in the military justice system. Basically, they’re screwed. Didn’t we used to brag that our military was trained to reject illegal orders? Today Campos cites an unnamed source saying an acting TJAG (details unclear) and the AF Global Strike Commander have resigned. That last is nukes, which doesn’t sound like Venezuela. Or maybe it does under the guy who wanted to nuke a hurricane.
Trump will be responsible for creating another Haiti. Overthrowing Maduro will simply unleash the drug lords and private militias, not a peaceful transition of power to the winner of the last election.
I remember the Cuban missile crisis. My dad worked for ACF, manufacturer of nuclear warheads, in Albuquerque. It was very real to us, as that made us a direct target and my dad packed up the big blue Ford station wagon “just in case”.
Every plane that flew over was suspect, us just waiting for the whistling sound of a bomb dropping, like you hear in war movies. The worst was hearing a faraway plane approach at night in bed. The anxious feeling until it passed.
These memories are resurfacing too often these days. Not something I want my grandkids to suffer, but with imbeciles and sociopaths dicking around with the maga new world order, that’s wishful thinking.
So what’s up with the B-52s? Carpet bomb the drug shipping lanes? Send cruise missles into purported narco loading docks?
Trump-Miller bros looove big intimidation moves to achieve whatever malfeaseance they’re jonesing for — up to the point they realize they have the power to actually “push the button.” More accumulated power = less TACO. These nutters are going rogue elephant.
@Sleeping Dog:
Yeah, good luck with the U.S. extracting resources from Venezuela (aka, President Trump looting the country, after all he will say that we need to get something from Venezuela to help us pay for actions which led to the toppling of Maduro’s government, as if this was something the Venezuelans asked President Trump to do) when the Oil companies will need to have a constant presence of a large force of armed guards/soldiers at all times to prevent sabotage and protect their workers.
This move will certainly make it easier for President Trump to declare that we need ICE more than ever, because of all of the caravans of Venezuelans trying to enter our borders illegally (due to our turning their country into warzone).
I have to say that I never thought of ICE as a particularly dangerous job, but if I were to consider becoming an ICE agent today I like to think it would give me pause. A lot of anger has been unleashed in the immigrant community and the more time passes and things do not change as regards U.S. policy towards immigration they will accelerate taking it out on an ICE employee. Sure, a Proud Boy type can puff out his chest and say if you kill one of us we will kill 10 of you and maybe even get away with it given the President we have in the WH, but this does mean that some poor ICE schlub gets to be the involuntary sacrifice to the God that leaves a body bloodied and wrecked lying in a street after being pummelled by a mob. Not a sacrifice I would willingly make for the good of the country.
One of these days Americans will try to shake off the crazy that we are living through now, just weird times to be alive right now.
I look at the here and now as something that will eventually pass, the fever will break given time, after all the Dark Ages did come to an end, however, it took about 500 years to come to an end.
Maybe in modern times with everything being sped up, that 500 year period can be reduced to say 5 years, still a long time to wait allowing for a lot of damage to still be done to this country.
Sigh.
As many people have pointed out, Venezuelan drug smugglers aren’t even smuggling fentanyl. Even by the bad standards of the American drug war, this as drug war is a total fraud.
It’s interesting that there’s been no public action against the actual cartels in Mexico responsible for fentanyl. Trump talked about that, but I guess he chickened out.
America already tried a coup in 2002 in Venezuela. It didn’t work. The opposition to Chavez was terrible and everything feel apart. Military and intelligence seems weaker and less competent now. This country just gave Israel a two year blank check and backend support for killing and destroying as much of Gaza as they wanted. One day after a ceasefire, Hamas was in complete control of Gaza. Are we taking the same show to Venezuela?
It seems we are picking on a country we think we can beat in public. But if we didn’t think we can beat the Mexican cartels, what are the odds of this coup working?
War with Venezuela is super duper America First.
The Nobel commitee has covered itself in glory, yet again.
@DK:
It’s a very bad idea anywhere in Latin America to call for US military intervention. It’s even worse in authoritarian countries that have made the US the propaganda enemy.
Not to mention how things worked out in Afghanistan and Iraq seven million years ago.
@Kathy: Or to mention how they are working out in Chicago and Portland now.
@DK:
I suspect “courage” is a key factor in the Nobel’s PP decision making process. Obama got one for having the courage to be a black man running for POTUS in the USA. A very dangerous thing to do, to say the least.
Machado is bucking a brutal dictatorship and has chosen to live in hiding within it, another very dangerous thing to do. However, she’s saying everything she can to get the US to attack the country, including the “narco-terrorist” BS coming from the Trump administration. I wondered if she is the one who came up with it after watching that interview. That should’ve DQed her, IMO.
The 74 page National Drug Threat Assessment published last May by this regime reported that Mexican cartels “dominate fentanyl transportation into and through the United States, with the Southwest border as the main entry point”. The same applies to methamphetamines.
On the other hand, “Colombia remains the primary source country for cocaine entering the United States, followed by Peru and Bolivia”. “Mexico-based cartels” smuggle it into the US by land, sea and air.
Venezuela is mentioned once in the report, in a half page description of Tren de Aragua, some of whose members “sell illicit drugs at the street level” (p 18). Trump’s attempt to get a war started with Venezuela are not even justified by his own regime’s findings. It defies understanding that the media does not do more to educate the public about the truth of the matters about which Trump so constantly lies.
@Ken_L:
Is there a way for the US to use its military power to squeeze wealth out of Mexico? Nope, too big. Columbia? Maybe if Venezuela works out. Drugs are just a pretext for good, old-fashioned, profit-driven Yankee imperialism.
@Rob1:
Unlikely the idea is carpet-bombing. A B52 can carry a shockingly awesome number of big cruise missiles, about 20 IIRC. Assume the Venezuelan military is spreading themselves out as fast as they can right now. There will be a lot of small targets to hit, best done simultaneously.
I heard there were survivors of the latest attack on a Venezuelan drug boat. Do we now send an assassination team?
This is interesting. A war blogger, ex-mil, in the ready reserve, says he’s getting e-mails from the Pentagon every 12 hours to update his health status, something that used to be every 5 years. He’s also pointing out the absence of press in the Penatgon, coinciding with the premature resignation of Admiral Alvin Holsey, commander of U.S. Southern Command – a position that would have been the culmination, the peak for any combat officer.
This isn’t even gunboat diplomacy, it looks like straight-up imperialism. I think we’re going to steal their oil.
@Slugger: America is now engaging in the farcical practice of blowing up small boats at random and then having to mount tricky rescue operations, instead of simply intercepting the boats and apprehending the occupants. Reportedly the two survivors were rescued by helicopter and are now on a navy ship. Presumably they’ll be taken to Guantanamo Bay if they don’t die first, well clear of reporters asking awkward questions.
I suppose we should be grateful they weren’t left for the sharks, as some of the vile commenters at the ‘New York Post’ enthusiastically wished. The MAGA rank and file are overwhelmingly delirious with excitement at all this murder on the high seas. Trump is the best president ever!
The ironic thing is, that a lot of analysts of the late Cold War believe the Soviet objective re Central American insurgencies was never “viva la revolucion” and the onward march of Soviet Socialism!
But to set a trap for the US: a Vietnam in Central America.
And now the geniuses of the Trump administation seem intent on jumping into the “elephant trap” without even China or Russia prepping the ground.
Moscow and Beijing must be close to collapsing with laughter about the propect of the US dropping itself into a shit-pit, due to the Trumpian reflex for kayfabe posturing becoming an actual war.
Bismarck once said:
“God has a special providence for fools, drunkards, and the United States of America.”
But perhaps not all three at once, Mr Secretary Hegseth.
@Michael Reynolds:
The problem is, Venezuelan oil is rather expensive to extract and process.
And lots of vulnerable infrastructure.
“Resources” are generally a dime a dozen; and it all gets sold on the global market anyway.
Though Trump is quite likely stupid enough to think otherwise.
See his idiotic “resources deal” nonsense with Ukraine.
Even British Empire generally was sensible enough to realise that control is often not worth the cost.
And also illustrates that “limited intervention” often ends up being a massive problem.
@JohnSF:
There are kinds and grades of oil. It’s not all the same.
While the US became the largest oil producer recently, refineries are set up for mostly a different kind of oil than most of what’s extracted domestically. It seems to be cheaper to export what can’t be refined in the country, and keep importing the right kind of oil from elsewhere.
Also, I think the US consumes far more refined oil products that what it could produce from domestic sources.
But in the first place, El Taco has a mercantilist view of the world. See the tariffs.
ETA, I’m unable to get reliable figures for oil imports from Venezuela, but I think at some point they were huge.
@JohnSF:
Yes, but Trump is a stable genius, he’ll show us he can do what W didn’t. Can he take control of Venezuelan oil, and will American oil companies bid for the rights? I suspect they will do so.
At least that’s giving him some credit, otherwise this is just ludicrous.
@Kathy:
Yes, and different refinery setups require diffrent sorts of oil input.
A lot of US refineries, iirc, are for historic reasons, configured for “heavy crude”, which Venezuela produces, rather than the “light crude” that US fracking mainly outputs.
iirc the US is more than self-sufficient in potential hydrocarbons including refined product potential.
But reconfiguring refineries is a costly and protracted thing.
So a lot of US oil gets exported as crude, notably to Europe, and the US imports heavier crude to feed the refineries.
But all that aside, it would probaly be cheaper, overall, to reconfigure the refineries than to occupy Venezuela.
But, of course, those accounts are in diffrent tallies.
And Trump is, of course, an idiot.
As are many of his advisors.
@Michael Reynolds:
“Ludicrous” is being generous.
I suspect neither Trump, nor many of his cabinet, or advisors, could think this through if their lives depended on it.
It’s all based on kayfabe posturing, and at best a rather stupid concept of “hemispheric hegemony”, and that all countries shall prostrate themselves before the throne.
One lesson of imperial power is that, if you force others to grovel, they will sooner or later do their damnest to f@ck you up.
@dazedandconfused:
Sure. I was referencing the dinosaur overkill history of the BUFF. But any of this caliber hardware along with the apparent plan to hit the small smuggling vessels is an absurdity with unintended consequences.